European aircraft manufacturer Airbus today trimmed its long-term passenger aircraft demand forecast by 1pc from last year, and maintained its view that global air traffic remains resilient to regional conflicts and high fuel prices.
Airbus forecast global demand for 42,060 new passenger aircraft in 2026-45, down by 1pc from its previous projection of 42,450 jets in 2025-44. This would bring the in-service fleet to 45,550 aircraft by the end of 2045, from 23,310 aircraft at the end of 2025. Of these, 81pc will be single aisle and 19pc widebody.
Passenger traffic growth is likely to be led by Asia, notably in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia.
The proportion of aircraft set for replacement is projected to rise to 47pc of the fleet, from 45pc previously, driven by demand for cost and CO₂-efficient models. Retained jets will total 3,490, with the balance at 22,240 aircraft.
Airbus excluded freighters from the updated outlook, diverging from earlier forecasts.
"Short-term disruptions like regional conflicts and high fuel prices are not dampening demand long-term," Airbus said, supporting an expected 3.9pc annual rise in passenger traffic over the next 20 years.
Flight traffic in the Middle East had recovered to 80-90pc of 1 January volumes as of early July, according to Airbus.
Airbus' revised outlook comes ahead of the biennial Farnborough Airshow in the UK, where the industry will examine challenges such as engine shortages and geopolitical tensions.
