Opec has downgraded its 2026 global oil demand forecast for a third month in a row, while raising its projection for next year.
In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the group revised down its oil demand projection for this year by 190,000 b/d to 780,000 b/d, which would leave total consumption at 105.94mn b/d.
Opec did not give a clear reason for the downgrade. But it follows several months of global economic instability, spurred by the US-Iran war.
The downgrades to demand were mainly driven by China and India, which saw their oil consumption forecasts cut by 110,000 b/d and 60,000 b/d, respectively.
But Opec has upgraded its oil demand growth forecasts for 2027 by 210,000 b/d to 1.73mn b/d, which would leave total consumption for the year at 107.86mn b/d.
Opec's global demand forecasts are much higher than those of the IEA, which sees oil demand declining by 1mn b/d to 103.5mn b/d in 2026, largely due to the US-Iran war.
Opec kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast broadly unchanged 640,000 b/d and 620,000 b/d. It does not forecast Opec+ production but publishes estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. These show Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — rose by 2.999mn b/d to 36.278mn b/d in June, which remain around 6.5mn b/d down on pre-war levels.
Should oil production in the Mideast Gulf remain constrained at anything close to current levels, Opec's demand figures imply a large supply deficit this year.
