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Opec downgrades 2026 oil demand forecast

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 13/07/26

Opec has downgraded its 2026 global oil demand forecast for a third month in a row, while raising its projection for next year.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the group revised down its oil demand projection for this year by 190,000 b/d to 780,000 b/d, which would leave total consumption at 105.94mn b/d.

Opec did not give a clear reason for the downgrade. But it follows several months of global economic instability, spurred by the US-Iran war.

The downgrades to demand were mainly driven by China and India, which saw their oil consumption forecasts cut by 110,000 b/d and 60,000 b/d, respectively.

But Opec has upgraded its oil demand growth forecasts for 2027 by 210,000 b/d to 1.73mn b/d, which would leave total consumption for the year at 107.86mn b/d.

Opec's global demand forecasts are much higher than those of the IEA, which sees oil demand declining by 1mn b/d to 103.5mn b/d in 2026, largely due to the US-Iran war.

Opec kept its non-Opec+ supply growth forecast broadly unchanged 640,000 b/d and 620,000 b/d. It does not forecast Opec+ production but publishes estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. These show Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — rose by 2.999mn b/d to 36.278mn b/d in June, which remain around 6.5mn b/d down on pre-war levels.

Should oil production in the Mideast Gulf remain constrained at anything close to current levels, Opec's demand figures imply a large supply deficit this year.

By Aydin Calik and Parie Desai

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12/07/26

Hormuz transits sparse after US-Iran clashes: Update

Hormuz transits sparse after US-Iran clashes: Update

Updates with details throughout London, 12 July (Argus) — Ship transits through the strait of Hormuz fell further following fresh clashes between the US and Iranian militaries over the weekend. US and Iranian forces both expanded their attacks for two consecutive days on Saturday and Sunday, hitting defense targets and, in the case of Iran, resuming attacks on ships and oil infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf. US forces launched another round of attacks against Iran at 22:00 GMT on Sunday, according to US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees Middle East-based US forces. Iran's forces earlier on Sunday targeted Kuwaiti border checkpoints and an offshore oil facility, Kuwait's defense ministry said. Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said early on Sunday that the strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice, after the US on Saturday carried out another round of strikes on Iranian military targets. IRGC also claimed that its attacks on a Kuwait-based US military base resulted in US casualties. Centcom disputed the claim. Centcom also disputed Tehran's claim of having shut down Hormuz. "Iran does not control the strait," Centcom said in a social media post. "Traffic is flowing." But visible AIS data from MarineTraffic showed no traffic through the strait, although vessels may be transiting with tracking systems switched off. The growing security risk could limit such attempts and threaten the nascent recovery in Gulf crude and product exports. Iran's forces appeared to have attacked Cyprus-flagged containership GFS Galaxy as it transited the strait of Hormuz via the southern route near Oman on Saturday. The vessel was hit nine nautical miles east of the Omani coast, prompting the crew to abandon the ship in a lifeboat. The lifeboat has since been rescued by local authorities, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. The vessel appeared to have its AIS tracking switched off at the time. In a separate IRGC statement carried by the Sepah news agency early on Sunday, the force claimed its aerospace arm had struck logistics support centres and refuelling platforms linked to US aircraft carriers at Duqm port in Oman. Duqm is a significant distance from the strait of Hormuz and was hit in the early days of the war, but it has been less severely affected since. Oman's state news agency also reported drone strikes across Musandam governorate, Oman's northernmost governorate. Oman condemned the attacks, the agency added. By John Ollett, Rithika Krishna and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iran says Hormuz shut after fresh US attacks

12/07/26
News
12/07/26

Iran says Hormuz shut after fresh US attacks

London, 12 July (Argus) — Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said early on Sunday that the strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice, after the US carried out another round of strikes on Iranian military targets on 11 July. "The strait of Hormuz will be closed until further notice and until the end of American interventions in this region, and no vessels will be allowed to pass through," the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said. US Central Command (Centcom) later challenged the closure claim. "The strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway," Centcom said on X. "Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing." The conflicting statements deepen uncertainty over shipping through the key Gulf waterway and raise the risk of renewed disruption to oil and LNG flows from the region. The latest US strikes followed an attack on the containership GFS Galaxy as it transited the strait of Hormuz via the southern route near Oman. Centcom said it began the strikes at 19:15 ET (23:15 GMT) on 11 July, after IRGC forces attacked the Cyprus-flagged vessel. "A civilian crew member is missing and the vessel is unable to continue the journey due to an onboard fire and significant engine-room damage," Centcom said. The vessel was hit nine nautical miles east of the Omani coast, prompting the crew to abandon the ship in a lifeboat. The lifeboat has since been rescued by local authorities, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. The vessel appeared to have its AIS tracking switched off at the time. Centcom said the US completed a third round of strikes against Iran on 11 July, hitting about 140 Iranian military targets. Targets included Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition storage facilities, communication networks and coastal surveillance locations, it said. In a separate IRGC statement carried by the Sepah news agency early on Sunday, the force claimed its aerospace arm had struck logistics support centres and refuelling platforms linked to US aircraft carriers at Duqm port in Oman. Duqm is a significant distance from the strait of Hormuz and was hit in the early days of the war, but has been less severely affected since. Oman's state news agency also reported drone strikes across Musandam governorate, Oman's northernmost governorate. Oman condemned the attacks, the agency added. Visible AIS data from MarineTraffic showed no traffic through the strait, although vessels may be transiting with tracking systems switched off. But the growing security risk could limit such attempts and threaten the nascent recovery in Gulf crude and product exports. By John Ollett and Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US cuts habitat protections for at-risk species

10/07/26
News
10/07/26

US cuts habitat protections for at-risk species

Washington, 10 July (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has finalized a regulation that would curtail protections that apply to the habitat of species at risk of going extinct, marking a major rollback to restrictions in the Endangered Species Act. The final rule, announced on Friday, would rescind a regulatory definition from 1981 that prohibited actions that would significantly harm the habitat of protected species. The administration said that definition, which has protected the land and water of at-risk species for decades, was an "unlawful intrusion that interfered with private property rights" and would be rescinded in its entirety. "This action restores common sense, respects private property, provides much-needed certainty for landowners and follows the statute Congress actually passed," US interior secretary Doug Burgum said. The US Interior Department, which has yet to release the text of the rule, said the change would reduce "unnecessary" permitting and "eliminate confusion" for landowners, energy companies, farmers and local governments. Last year, Interior said its intended revision would only apply on a prospective basis and not apply to permits that have already been issued. Environmentalists are preparing litigation challenging the rollback, which they say would make it far more likely for species to go extinct by eliminating protections of the habitat where they live. The administration's revised interpretation of the law would still prohibit directly injuring or killing wildlife, such as poaching, but would end protections that would otherwise limit energy production or other development on the remaining habitat of an at-risk species. "Habitat destruction is the number one threat to endangered species and Trump's decision to toss out the definition of harm is a death knell for America's wildlife," Center for Biological Diversity senior campaigner Tara Zuardo said. The US Supreme Court in 1995 sided with federal regulators that had said a prohibition against "harm" in the Endangered Species Act also extended to a species' habitat. But the Trump administration last year, in its proposed rule, said it no longer believes that is the best meaning of the law, prompting its decision to repeal that definition. In March, the administration exempted all offshore oil and gas operations in the US Gulf of Mexico from compliance with the Endangered Species Act by citing national security concerns. Last month, a federal judge in Maryland cited that action to throw out a lawsuit from environmentalists that said Trump-era protections for whales and other at-risk species in the Gulf were insufficient. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Double trouble for Caracas

10/07/26
News
10/07/26

Double trouble for Caracas

Earthquake recovery takes centre stage, but the same uncertainties about upstream investment wait in the wings, write Carla Bass and Carlos Camacho Caracas, 10 July (Argus) — Venezuela's twin earthquakes in late June left crude and natural gas production infrastructure largely intact, despite killing thousands, even as they shifted the political ground in ways that are still emerging. The country's oil operations are concentrated in the Orinoco heavy oil belt east of Caracas and around Lake Maracaibo to the west — outside areas hardest hit by the quakes, such as the city of La Guaira. The destruction killed more than 3,800, a count that is expected to rise as thousands are still missing. The earthquakes came as Venezuela is trying to rebuild its economy and oil industry in the wake of the US' 3 January incursion.Crude production is continuing apace, most operators say. It climbed to 1.2mn b/d in June from about 1.1mn b/d in prior months, with the government aiming for 3mn b/d in 2030. Efforts to attract inward investment are also expected to continue as planned, industry sources say, although progress here was already slow as investors await greater certainty about operating in the country. Interim president Delcy Rodriguez says oil regulations she approved this week will help provide "resources for the recovery and reconstruction of our country" after the quake. The regulations are meant to implement reforms passed earlier this year to allow firms other than PdV to operate oil fields. They also simplify taxes and trim the state's share of earnings and production — Caracas' take from crude production projects has fallen to 20-35pc for most projects, down sharply from an earlier standard of 83.33pc — and create more defined royalty tiers. But Rodriguez must first get to grips with a country where many citizens want basic disaster recovery to take priority over oil contracts. Disapproval of the Rodriguez administration rose to 63pc in an AtlasIntel-Bloomberg poll conducted on 26-20 June, following the quakes, up from 59pc a month earlier. And 65pc disapprove of the government's earthquake response, according to the same poll. Pressure release The disaster could buy Rodriguez's regime a temporary reprieve from political pressure or catalyse a democratic transition, according to consultancy Teneo's political analyst Nicholas Watson. Most officials who worked under former president Nicolas Maduro — including some wanted by the US for drug trafficking — remain in place. But the US has said it is prioritising stability before moving to free elections. The US has indicated it will reinforce the status quo. This includes not opening a path for opposition leader Maria Corina Machado to visit Venezuela after the disaster, although President Donald Trump later indicated this could change. He has still expressed solidarity with Rodriguez and committed to continue disaster recovery aid, while cutting humanitarian assistance to many other countries. But in any case, investor uncertainty will do more to delay upstream development than earthquake recovery. Both existing and hopeful new producers have lined up to sign initial agreements, but "the push now is to turn those into contracts", one industry source said. Contract models included in the reform are workable if not perfect, industry sources say, but the energy ministry will still have a high level of discretion. Potential newer entrants are also wary about commercialisation of production, which involves selling, for example, lighter crude to PdV and receiving potentially heavier crude or fuel oil as payment in kind. Cash flow also remains a problem. Disbursements of oil revenue that must go via a US Treasury Department fund could be more frequent, some operators say. For now, some Venezuelans' main energy concern is having natural gas supplies for cooking turned back on as pipeline and building inspections continue, if the building was lucky enough to stand. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ production rebound at risk from renewed war

10/07/26
News
10/07/26

Opec+ production rebound at risk from renewed war

London, 10 July (Argus) — Opec+ crude production staged a partial recovery in June, but the gains are at risk as renewed fighting between the US and Iran threatens to cripple exports through the strait of Hormuz. Opec+ production rose by 2.25mn b/d on the month to 31.95mn b/d in June, the highest since the US-Iran war began on 28 February, Argus estimates. But overall output was still around 7.2mn b/d lower than levels before the war began. The June increase was driven by the Mideast Gulf members that were able to ramp up exports through the strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran interim peace deal on 18 June. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran and Bahrain collectively increased production by 2.17mn b/d. But the recovery is under serious threat with the US and Iran exchanging fire across the Mideast Gulf this week. Any further escalation could even reverse some of the production gains that several key Opec+ members have made in recent weeks. The US-Iran war had devastating initial consequences for Opec+ production, which fell by a record 8.1mn b/d in the month following the conflict. Unable to export through Hormuz due to the threat of attacks on shipping, key members such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait had to curtail large parts of their output. But production rose last month as exports through the strait rose, albeit at levels well below pre-war flows. Saudi output increased by 520,000 b/d on the month to 7.09mn b/d in June, although this was still 3.79mn b/d below pre-war production. Iraq boosted output by 600,000 b/d to 2.15mn b/d as it ramped up exports from its Basrah port inside the Mideast Gulf and increased domestic consumption. Kuwait increased its output by 940,000 b/d to 1.52mn b/d and said production in the last 10 days of June was closer to 2mn b/d. Iran's production rose by 100,000 b/d to 2.75mn b/d after the US removed a blockade on its exports and issued a sanctions waiver for its oil sales as part of the interim peace deal. This waiver was revoked this week, which could affect Tehran's ability to ramp up production in the weeks ahead. And in its second month after leaving Opec, the UAE significantly increased both its exports and production. Output rose by 1.71mn b/d to a record 3.82mn b/d in June, around 360,000 b/d above the quota that the UAE would have probably had for the month if it had remained a member of the alliance. The UAE's rapid increase in output to well above pre-war levels has raised questions about a potential market share war between itself and Mideast Gulf Opec members as production recovers. Wound up Opec+ members remained around 7.14mn b/d below their target in June, despite the production rebound. Seven core members of the alliance have raised their collective production ceiling in recent months to prepare the ground to boost output significantly once the strait of Hormuz fully reopens. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed on 5 July to a further 188,000 b/d rise in their collective target for August, leaving just 188,000 b/d of voluntary cuts in place, which could be fully unwound in September. If shipping through Hormuz recovers and a permanent end to the war can somehow be agreed, the relaxation of the targets could see the group eventually exceed its pre-war output. That is a big if. There is also the question of Russia's production, which was 760,000 b/d below target in June due to repeated Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure. Further Russian output losses cannot be ruled out as long as the Ukraine war continues. By Aydin Calik Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jun May* Target† ± target Opec 8 13.96 11.82 20.28 -6.32 Non-Opec 9 12.79 12.81 13.61 -0.82 Opec+ 17 26.75 24.63 33.89 -7.14 Total Opec+ 31.95 29.70 na na *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jun May Target† ± target Saudi Arabia 7.09 6.57 10.29 -3.20 Iraq 2.15 1.55 4.35 -2.20 Kuwait 1.52 0.58 2.63 -1.11 Algeria 1.00 0.98 0.99 0.01 Nigeria 1.65 1.59 1.50 +0.15 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.30 0.28 0.28 +0.02 Gabon 0.21 0.22 0.18 +0.03 Equatorial Guinea 0.04 0.05 0.07 -0.03 Opec 8 13.96 11.82 20.28 -6.32 Iran 2.75 2.65 na na Libya 1.35 1.32 na na Venezuela 1.10 1.10 na na Total Opec 11^ 19.16 16.89 na na †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jun May* Target† ± target Russia 9.00 9.00 9.76 -0.76 Oman 0.92 0.95 0.83 +0.09 Azerbaijan 0.44 0.44 0.55 -0.11 Kazakhstan 1.86 1.86 1.60 +0.26 Malaysia 0.34 0.35 0.40 -0.06 Bahrain 0.04 0.03 0.20 -0.16 Brunei 0.06 0.05 0.08 -0.02 Sudan 0.01 0.01 0.06 -0.05 South Sudan 0.12 0.12 0.12 -0.00 Total non-Opec 12.79 12.81 13.61 -0.82 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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