The Netherlands is likely to miss its 2030 sectoral emissions target for the power sector, as growing demand outpaces growth in renewable capacity and increases the use of gas-fired capacity, according to government research body the environmental assessment agency (PBL).
The Netherlands only has a 5pc chance of reaching its 13mn t CO2e emissions target in 2030, down from an estimated 16.7mn t this year.
PBL expects 4 TWh/yr of demand growth out to 2040, mostly coming from transport and data centres. This demand growth will push the country to being a net importer, from a net exporter at present.
Policy changes now will make no difference to 2030, because lead times for building new renewable sites are too long, the report said. But PBL still expects offshore wind to become the largest contributor of renewable energy by 2030, overtaking solar.
There is uncertainty over whether Indian firm Tata Steel's two blast furnaces in the country will shut down by 2030. Residual gases from the furnaces are burnt at the Velten power plant, contributing base-load supply and a large share of emissions, the agency said. And the highly interconnected nature of the power grid with other countries is another source of uncertainty, because emissions in the Netherlands will depend on developments elsewhere.
Compared with its last report from 2025, PBL assumes 1GW less of offshore wind in 2030, and slightly lower load factors for the technology.
Gas-fired power will remain the main instrument out to 2040 for dealing with the variability of wind and solar, PBL expects, although the development of battery energy storage systems may allow these to play a bigger role.
