Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the world's major emitters are at or near their peak, research published this week suggests.
German non-profit NewClimate institute, the Dutch government-affiliated environmental assessment agency PBL, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) analysed aggregate emissions across 26 countries, which cover around 80pc of 2024 global GHG emissions.
Calculations carried out by the researchers suggest the midpoint of the projection range peaked at 40.2bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2025, before declining slightly to 40bn t/CO2e in 2026.
If the projections' upper range is taken, then their GHG emissions will peak this year, at 40.6bn t/CO2e.
The researchers point out that progress remains uneven across countries, with half of the surveyed countries projected to see their emissions decrease or stabilise, while the other half is expected to see a continuing increase.
The report is based on policy scenarios combining energy and industrial emission projections under current legislated climate policies with land-use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions projections. The report's projections suggest that by 2030, aggregated emissions for the 26 countries will range between 37.6bn and 40.2bn t/CO2e. In comparison, the 26 countries together emitted 39bn t/CO2e in 2019.
Among the 19 countries that have submitted climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDC) — for 2035 under the Paris Agreement, the report flags 11 countries that are "off track" and "need to adopt or strengthen policies".
Countries on track to meet their targets include Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Morocco, Russia, Turkey and Vietnam. These countries should use the opportunity to further strengthen their NDC ambition, the NewClimate institute urged.
Countries that are off track include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Japan, Nigeria, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the UK. These countries need to adopt additional policies or substantially strengthen existing ones to close their national implementation gap, the institute said.
International support will be key to help countries with "conditional" NDC targets, such as Ethiopia, Mexico and Nigeria, the report said. Conditional targets are those which will require international support to be met.
Compared with the report's 2025 iteration, the researchers have raised their emissions projections for 2035. China and India in particular, are expected to emit more than was assessed by the researchers last year. While China boasts strong renewable energy deployment and efficiency improvements, its continued industrial energy demand and a slower decline in coal use is projected to keep emissions higher. In India, the researchers flagged the country's high reliance on coal, and growing emissions in the energy and industry sectors.
Conversely, the researchers are more optimistic than they were a year ago regarding emissions developments in the EU, the US, Mexico and Vietnam.
The researchers say it is yet too early to include the impact of the war in Iran in their modelling.
