New York governor Kathy Hochul (D) appears poised to win another term in Tuesday's election, but persisting concerns over rising energy prices and affordability are likely to keep any ambitious climate policy goals, such as a statewide cap-and-invest program, in the backseat.
Hochul is on track to defeat her opponent, Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman (R), and Democrats are likely to retain control of the state legislature. The latest poll of just over 800 likely voters from the Siena Research Institute shows 54pc support for the governor compared with just 40pc for Blakeman.
When Hochul first took office in 2021, she presided over the implementation of the state's landmark 2019 climate law, which set ambitious goals for the state. Her administration took steps to lessen New York's use of natural gas, promote clean energy and develop a state-specific, economy-wide cap-and-invest program to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
But Hochul's policy calculus has changed significantly since. Rising electricity demand as a result of growing data center capacity, federal cuts to clean energy incentives, a slew of tariffs as well as the federal administration's relentless attacks on offshore wind have raised concerns over the feasibility of enacting more aggressive policies.
Hochul's administration delayed the rollout of the cap-and-invest program, leading to a lawsuit from environmental groups. A state court sided with the groups last year and required the release of carbon market regulations by February this year.
But during budget negotiations with lawmakers earlier this year, Hochul expressed doubts about New York's ability to meet its climate goals, citing higher costs and a hostile federal administration. Those negotiations culminated in a deal that delayed the state's interim emissions goal and made moot the lower court order by pushing back the release of carbon market regulations to 2028.
New York also requires utilities to use resources such as wind and solar for 70pc of their retail sales by 2030. But state estimates suggest the target may not be achieved until 2036 at the earliest.
For his part, Blakeman has blamed Hochul for high energy costs and has promised to "unleash" the state's fossil fuel reserves. But if Blakeman wins, he will likely have to contend with a Democratic legislature.
Hot ‘n cold
Even continued Democratic control of the legislature is likely to do little to ensure a return to past climate plans.
"There's so much emphasis on affordability that I don't anticipate that [Hochul] is going to double down on climate targets per se for New York state," said Carolyn Kissane, founding director of the SPS Global Energy, Climate and Sustainability Lab at New York University.
New York is also battling President Donald Trump. A federal court recently sided with the federal administration and struck down the state's climate "superfund" law, which had sought to impose fees on oil, natural gas and coal companies for the climate-related costs from their GHG emissions. The state is appealing the ruling.
In addition, stronger electricity demand has contributed to higher costs. That, along with the volatility in global energy markets resulting from the US-Iran war, has made it more difficult to decarbonize.
"Whether it's solar or wind or batteries, some of that is just going to go to meeting that new demand rather than displacing any carbon intensive energy sources," said Noah Kaufman, senior research scholar at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy.
New York has long had some of the highest electricity prices in the country, in part because of the state's limited natural gas infrastructure, according to Kaufman.
Hochul has reversed her reluctance to promote natural gas in light of grid reliability concerns. The governor revived a natural gas pipeline last year and embraced an "all-of-the-above" approach for energy during her campaign this year.
Hochul will likely "take a more pragmatic" approach moving forward, according to Kissane.
"She'll try to protect the clean energy, new generation that is coming on line, such as the offshore wind, and at the same time, recognize that she really can't pull back on natural gas," she said.
Hochul has promoted new solar and battery storage, and funneled $2bn towards climate and energy efficiency programs over the last two years. In addition, she was the first governor to issue a one-year moratorium on data center development.
Still, Hochul will have to continue to balance affordability and policy goals during her next term.
It remains to be seen whether "there is appetite for some sort of compromise" to support more infrastructure in the near term and gradually phase out natural gas to enable the state to meet its emissions goals, Kaufman said.
