US officials discourage Thanksgiving travel

State and federal officials urged the US to avoid travel or large gatherings ahead of a holiday next week famous for both.

Swiftly rising cases and hospitalizations for Covid-19 have sparked new restrictions on indoor businesses in some states and pleadings from strained hospitals to limit the annual Thanksgiving feasts. Governors in more than half of US states have limited indoor gatherings in addition to restrictions imposed on restaurants and other businesses.

The Centers for Disease Control today recommended against traveling for the 26 November holiday due to "exponential growth in cases." The US has added more than 150,000 new cases a day in five of the past seven days.

"Amidst this critical phase of the Covid-19 pandemic, CDC is recommending against travel during the Thanksgiving period," agency Covid-19 incident manager Henry Walke said.

Auto club AAA earlier this month forecast reduced travel for the holiday, with auto passengers expected to drop by 4.3pc from last year to 47.8mn travelers and airline travel predicted to drop by 48pc to 2.4mn passengers.

United Airlines today warned that a new wave of cancellations could sink its fourth-quarter capacity to less than 45pc of year-ago levels.

US gasoline consumption has not risen significantly around Thanksgiving since a 5pc increase ahead of the holiday in 2017, according to weekly estimates from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Demand sank when the holiday fell unusually late last year, only recovering in mid-December. US refiners are already looking past the typically lower winter driving season to spring.

Covid-19 cases have climbed especially fast since mid-October in the midcontinent. The region's gasoline demand proved more resilient than the coasts this year, with rural drivers less willing or able to cut back. Midcontinent gasoline demand was within 10pc of prior year levels in June, and within nearly 5pc by July, according to monthly EIA data. Iowa exceeded prior-year gasoline sales in June, July and August.

Restrictions and hospitalizations have had an uneven effect on driver demand so far this year. Traffic volume in Texas, the state with the largest gasoline consumption, had recovered to within 13pc of 2019 levels by the end of June. But an uptick in coronavirus hospitalizations in late June and July brought fresh restrictions on businesses, slashing traffic volumes by 10 percentage points by the end of that month, according to state department of transportation data. Gasoline demand in the state was about 15pc lower over the summer compared to 2019, according to EIA data.

But rising Covid-19 cases elsewhere have had much less effect on gasoline demand. In Florida, the state ranked third for gasoline consumption, demand narrowed to within 5pc of prior year levels even as hospitalizations approached 10,000 in July.

By Elliott Blackburn