US officials discourage Thanksgiving travel
State and federal officials urged the US to avoid travel or large gatherings ahead of a holiday next week famous for both.
Swiftly rising cases and hospitalizations for Covid-19 have sparked new restrictions on indoor businesses in some states and pleadings from strained hospitals to limit the annual Thanksgiving feasts. Governors in more than half of US states have limited indoor gatherings in addition to restrictions imposed on restaurants and other businesses.
The Centers for Disease Control today recommended against traveling for the 26 November holiday due to "exponential growth in cases." The US has added more than 150,000 new cases a day in five of the past seven days.
"Amidst this critical phase of the Covid-19 pandemic, CDC is recommending against travel during the Thanksgiving period," agency Covid-19 incident manager Henry Walke said.
Auto club AAA earlier this month forecast reduced travel for the holiday, with auto passengers expected to drop by 4.3pc from last year to 47.8mn travelers and airline travel predicted to drop by 48pc to 2.4mn passengers.
United Airlines today warned that a new wave of cancellations could sink its fourth-quarter capacity to less than 45pc of year-ago levels.
US gasoline consumption has not risen significantly around Thanksgiving since a 5pc increase ahead of the holiday in 2017, according to weekly estimates from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Demand sank when the holiday fell unusually late last year, only recovering in mid-December. US refiners are already looking past the typically lower winter driving season to spring.
Covid-19 cases have climbed especially fast since mid-October in the midcontinent. The region's gasoline demand proved more resilient than the coasts this year, with rural drivers less willing or able to cut back. Midcontinent gasoline demand was within 10pc of prior year levels in June, and within nearly 5pc by July, according to monthly EIA data. Iowa exceeded prior-year gasoline sales in June, July and August.
Restrictions and hospitalizations have had an uneven effect on driver demand so far this year. Traffic volume in Texas, the state with the largest gasoline consumption, had recovered to within 13pc of 2019 levels by the end of June. But an uptick in coronavirus hospitalizations in late June and July brought fresh restrictions on businesses, slashing traffic volumes by 10 percentage points by the end of that month, according to state department of transportation data. Gasoline demand in the state was about 15pc lower over the summer compared to 2019, according to EIA data.
But rising Covid-19 cases elsewhere have had much less effect on gasoline demand. In Florida, the state ranked third for gasoline consumption, demand narrowed to within 5pc of prior year levels even as hospitalizations approached 10,000 in July.
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Dutch FincoEnergies supplies B100 biodiesel to HAL
Dutch FincoEnergies supplies B100 biodiesel to HAL
London, 3 May (Argus) — Dutch supplier FincoEnergies has supplied shipowner Holland America Line (HAL)with B100 marine biodiesel at the port of Rotterdam for a pilot test. This follows a collaboration between HAL, FincoEnergies' subsidiary GoodFuels, and engine manufacturer Wartsila to trial blends of B30 and B100 marine biodiesel . HAL's vessel the Rotterdam bunkered with B100 on 27 April before embarking on a journey through the Norwegian heritage fjords to test the use of the biofuel. The vessel will utilise one of its four engines to combust B100, which will reportedly cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 86pc on a well-to-wake basis compared with conventional fossil fuel marine gasoil (MGO), according to GoodFuels. There is no engine or fuel structure modification required for the combustion of B100, confirmed HAL. The B100 marine biodiesel blend comprised of sustainable feedstock such as waste fats and oils. The firms did not disclose how much B100 was supplied, or whether this is the beginning of a longer-term supply agreement. Argus assessed the price of B100 advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0°C cold filter plugging point dob ARA — a calculated price which includes a deduction of the value of Dutch HBE-G renewable fuel tickets — at an average of $1,177.32/t in April. This is a premium of $410.20/t to MGO dob ARA prices for the same month, which narrows to $321.68/t with the inclusion of EU emissions trading system (ETS) costs for the same time period. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US job growth nearly halved in April: Update
US job growth nearly halved in April: Update
Adds services PMI in first, fifth paragraphs, factory PMI reference in sixth paragraph. Houston, 3 May (Argus) — The US added fewer jobs in April as the unemployment rate ticked up and average earnings growth slowed, signs of gradually weakening labor market conditions. A separate survey showed the services sector contracted last month. The US added 175,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, fewer than the 238,000 analysts anticipated. That compared with an upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in March and a downwardly revised 236,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9pc from 3.8pc. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.7-3.9pc since August 2023, near the five-decade low of 3.4pc. The latest employment report comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its target lending rate unchanged for a sixth time and signaled it would be slower in cutting rates from two-decade highs as the labor market has remained "strong" and inflation, even while easing, is "still too high". US stocks opened more than 1pc higher today after the jobs report and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.47pc. Futures markets showed odds of a September rate cut rose by about 10 percentage points to about 70pc after the report. Services weakness Another report today showed the biggest segment of the economy contracted last month. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 49.4 in April from 51.4 in March, ending 15 months of expansion. The services PMI employment index fell to 45.9, the fourth contraction in five months, in today's report. Readings below 50 signal contraction. On 1 May, ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April, after one month of growth following 16 months of contraction. In today's employment report from the Labor Department, average hourly earnings grew by 3.9pc over the 12 month period, down from 4.1pc in the period ended in March. Job gains in the 12 months through March averaged 242,000. Gains, including revisions, averaged 276,000 in the prior three-month period. Job gains occurred in health care, social services and transportation and warehousing. Health care added 56,000 jobs, in line with the gains over the prior 12 months. Transportation and warehousing added 22,000, also near the 12-month average. Retail trade added 20,000. Construction added 9,000 following 40,000 in March. Government added 8,000, slowing from an average of 55,000 in the prior 12 months. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs after posting 4,000 jobs the prior month. Mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kazakhstan outlines Opec+ compensation plan
Kazakhstan outlines Opec+ compensation plan
London, 3 May (Argus) — Opec+ member Kazakhstan has submitted a plan to Opec detailing how it intends to compensate for producing above its crude production target in the first four months of the year. Kazakhstan and Iraq — which has also submitted a compensation plan — are the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers and a key reason why the group exceeded its overall production in the first three months of the year . Kazakhstan's energy ministry said it produced above its target by 129,000 b/d in January, 128,000 b/d in February, and 131,000 b/d in March, according to secondary source estimates. Opec secondary sources, of which Argus is one, have yet to formally submit their production estimates for April, but Kazakhstan said it is factoring preliminarily overproduction of 100,000 b/d for April. The ministry said it kept oil production high because of high winter demand for natural gas — much of its gas production is associated and is produced alongside its oil. Kazakhstan said it would start its compensation plan in May with an initial cut of 18,000 b/d below its official target of 1.468mn b/d. It would then stick to its target in June and July before implementing a cut of 131,000 b/d in August, none in September, 299,000 b/d in October, 40,000 b/d in November and zero in December. The cuts have been designed to coincide with scheduled maintenance at the country's key oil fields of Kashagan and Tengiz, the ministry said. Kazakhstan would have to reduce its output by 149,000 b/d in May compared with its March production of 1.599mn b/d to meet its pledge, according to Argus calculations. The compensation plan is set to be adjusted once a final figure for April is available. The plan would be further adjusted to accommodate any change in the Opec+ alliance's output policy — for which a meeting is scheduled to take place on 1 June in Vienna. Opec has been increasing pressure on members exceeding their targets. It called last month on countries that have overproduced to submit detailed compensation plans by the end of April. The Opec+ alliance has implemented a series of cuts — voluntary or collective — worth a combined 5.4mn b/d since October 2022 in a self-described bid to "support the stability and balance of the oil market". The latest round of "voluntary" output reductions by several members came into force in January and is due to run until the end of June. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iraq sets plan to compensate for excess Opec oil output
Iraq sets plan to compensate for excess Opec oil output
Dubai, 3 May (Argus) — Iraq, Opec's second-largest oil producer, has submitted a plan to the Opec secretariat outlining how it will compensate for producing above quota in the first quarter of 2024. The plan indicates that Baghdad will make compensatory cuts from May through to the end of this year, although its breakdown could be tweaked if its April production is again above quota, based on average production estimates issued by the seven Opec secondary sources, including Argus . Opec+'s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) said in its 3 April meeting that members that have produced above their quotas so far this year would need to submit plans to compensate for the excess. Iraq and Kazakhstan, which Opec said has also submitted its own compensation plan, have produced the most excess excess volumes in the Opec+ group since the beginning of the year. The JMMC oversees compliance to the coalition's crude production cuts and studies market dynamics. Iraq produced 194,000 b/d above target in January, and overshot by 217,000 b/d and 193,000 b/d in February and March, respectively. To compensate for this, Baghdad plans to produce 50,000 b/d below its quota between May and September, 100,000 b/d below quota for October and November, and 152,000 b/d below its quota for December. Iraq has been working to a quota of 4mn b/d since the start of the year, including two rounds of voluntary cuts it made in April and November last year. Baghdad will submit its crude production figure for April later this week, it said. Any extra volumes produced will also be factored into the country's compensation plan. To meet obligations, Baghdad says it will cap its crude burn at 75,000 b/d and maintain refining intake to between 400,000 b/d and 500,000 b/d through to the end of this year, according to Iraq's Opec national representative Mohammed Adnan Ibrahim Al-Najjar. But Iraq has yet to decide whether it will extend a 3.3mn b/d cap on exports, in place since April , beyond the second half, as it will depend on "Opec+ agreements [in the June meeting] and [the needs of] Iraq's economy over the coming months," the oil ministry told Argus last week. When needs must With the summer season around the corner in the Mideast Gulf region, Iraq has pushed the majority of its compensation into the last three months of the year. Iraq in summer often experiences extreme heatwaves resulting in a major spike in electricity demand. Power shortages during the summer season have fuelled political unrest in Iraq in recent years. To strike a balance between its Opec+ commitments and avoid similar scenarios this year, Iraq says it will import higher levels of gas from neighbouring Iran, with Baghdad also beginning to benefit from electricity supply from Jordan through a newly-established power line which became operational at the beginning of April. Iran and Iraq finalised a five-year supply agreement at the end of March, which will see Tehran send "up to 50mn m³/d" of gas to Iraq, Iraq's electricity minister Ziad Ali Fadel said. But Iraq's persistent overproduction, which has drawn scrutiny within Opec+, might be difficult to address, especially as Iraq blames it on its inability to oversee production in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in the north of the country. Most Iraqi Kurdish crude output is directed to local refineries or sold on the black market following the closure of the export pipeline that links oil fields in northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan just over a year ago. Iraq's federal oil ministry says its Kurdish counterpart has stopped providing production data, but on 3 May said it estimates Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) crude production to be between 40,000 b/d and 50,000 b/d. Meanwhile, Iraq's oil minister Hayyan Abdulghani on 2 May announced that two joint Baghdad-Erbil committees have been formed to resolve the issue of contracts between Erbil and the international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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