Shift to 45Z storms biofuel markets

Amid a challenging margin environment, US producers have paused operations for Q1 2025 during the transition to the 45Z. Despite needing stronger RIN prices, they saw limited relief from feedstock price corrections in early March. The lack of renewable diesel and biodiesel production, along with plant closures, is expected to impact feedstock pricing in the first half of the year. This outlook suggests potential reductions in advanced biofuel output, which could tighten RIN balances and drive credit prices higher.