Tighter balance in 2025-26, weather driving the outlook for EU and Black Sea supply

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• Weather and sufficient rain will be a deciding factor for Russian wheat production in 2025-26, but forecast lower areas mean even above-average yields will struggle to lift production to previous seasons' levels
• Rainfall is also needed for Ukrainian winter wheat to reach the output volumes currently projected for 2025-26
• Romania is on track to reach record wheat production in 2025-26, but there also, enough rain will be crucial