Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA expects renewable additions to grow by 2.7 times by 2030, according to its 2024 report. This would surpass most individual countries' targets, but fall short of the target set at last year's Cop 28 gathering of tripling growth.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions are forecast to drive this growth, making up 80pc of new power plants by 2030. China is expected to be responsible for 60pc of this growth, the IEA said. With 670GW of new renewable capacity added so far in 2024 — a 20pc increase on the year — the IEA expects half of global energy generation to come from renewables by 2030. The EU is expected to double the pace of renewable capacity growth between 2024 and 2030.
While the IEA sees renewable growth being driven increasingly by the market rather than government policies, executive director Fatih Birol deems slow grid connection the biggest hurdle facing expansion. The average wait for a connection permit is seven years for wind and five for solar.
And lead author of the report, Heymi Bahar, added that PV manufacturers have been limiting expansion investment in response to a supply glut, with forecast manufacturing capacity for 2030 revised down from last year's report because of the financial risk facing smaller producers and negative net margins. The report also highlights the need for more investment in wind turbine manufacturing.
Despite estimates that electricity generated from renewables will almost double by 2030, the IEA sees renewable fuels — bioenergy, biogas, hydrogen and e-fuels — expanding by just 28pc by 2030, and making up less than 6pc of the energy mix. Europe is also expected see a 6pc increase in renewable fuel demand between 2023 and 2030. Geothermal, tidal and concentrated solar power growth is expected to decline because of a lack of policy support, while hydro is expected to account for less than 1pc of global renewable additions by 2030.
