EU states are considering only presenting a statement of intent with an "indicative" 2035 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target as the bloc looks set to miss a September deadline for submitting its nationally determined contributions (NDC) — climate plan — to the UN.
The statement of intent, prepared for EU states approval by the EU's Danish presidency, shows an indicative reduction cut in net greenhouse gas (GHG) "expected" to be between -66.3pc and -72.5pc for 2035, compared with 1990 levels.
The stated range is based on linear trajectories between the EU's climate targets for 2030 and 2050, and between the 55pc GHG emission reduction target for 2030 and the European Commission's proposal for a 90pc cut for 2040.
The statement of intent indicates that the GHG reduction range is "without prejudice" to final agreement on the EU's 2040 climate target. The document is more of a "signal" that the EU will communicate its new NDC ahead of Cop 30.
"When it comes to a range, the EU and member states always tend to reach only the lower end," said WWF's climate governance expert Michael Sicaud-Clyet. He also noted that member states could be more ambitious and not base their 2035 NDC on a linear pathway.
Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) need to submit new NDCs for 2035 by 30 September for their progress to be recorded in the UN's synthesis report. The latter will be released before the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November.
But the EU is struggling to agree on its 2040 climate target, from which 2035 climate goals will be derived.
Since starting a six-month rotating presidency, Denmark's climate and energy minister Lars Aagaard has led "intense" dialogue with EU ministers to reach an agreement in September.
But that timing became impossible to hold because of continuing demands made by several member states, including France and Germany, for EU leaders to discuss the topic.
"Approval [of the statement of intent] would ensure that the EU "does not go to UN climate summit empty-handed", a spokesperson for the Danish presidency said. If agreed by EU climate and environment ministers on 18 September, the statement could technically meet the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres' call for parties to the Paris agreement to announce their new NDCs on 24 September, in the margins of a UN general assembly.
The Danish EU presidency points to a group of EU states now advocating the submission of a "provisional" NDC to the UNFCCC. But a spokesperson for the presidency still noted "different positions on the exact content and the balances to be struck in the statement of intent". The statement would also require consensus by EU ministers on 18 September.
In the statement of intent, EU and member states would also reaffirm their "determination to continue leading by example". This comes as some observers expect China, the world's largest emitter, to submit its NDC in time for the UN climate event. The EU not being able to provide a full NDC might see China attracting "additional attention and support", said Sven Harmeling, head of climate at non-governmental CAN Europe.
And while EU climate and environment ministers could still adopt a statement of intent on 18 September, Harmeling notes they could also adopt a full NDC, albeit decoupled from the EU's 2040 GHG target. "Or [there is] no decision at all on the NDC, resulting in diplomatic embarrassment and loss of influence," Harmeling said.
