India began October with around 2.4mn t of DAP in stock, according to provisional data.
DAP imports totalling 994,000t, according to Argus lineup data, more than covered domestic offtake of 967,000t last month. Adding 317,000t of domestic DAP production yielded a stockbuild — production plus imports minus sales — of 344,000t in September.
The latest DAP stock estimate is around 700,000t higher than inventories at the beginning of October last year. At the beinning of this year, DAP stocks were as low as 1.1mn t.
Additional governmental support for importers enabled Indian DAP imports through the April-September kharif season to reach 4mn t. This far outpaced the three-year average of 2.73mn t and made up for a 7pc lag in domestic production in the same period.
The lack of DAP drove some farmers to cover phosphates demand with other products. Domestic DAP offtake in kharif of 4.44mn t was 17pc lower than typical, allowing surging imports to rebuild stocks.
Saudi, Moroccan supply gives security
The line-up for DAP deliveries to Indian ports this month stands at 458,000t.
Assuming October-December domestic DAP sales and production are in line with the three-year averages of 3.76mn t and 1.09mn t, respectively, a further 2.21mn t of imports would be needed to keep inventories steady to the end of the year.
Over the last three years, October-December imports have averaged 2.11mn t.
In July, several Indian importers signed offtake agreements to secure Saudi and Moroccan phosphates.
IPL, Kribhco and Coromandel secured 3.1mn t/yr of phosphates — mostly DAP — from Saudi Arabia in a deal spanning five years.
In July-September, DAP deliveries from Saudi Arabia totalled 1.14mn t. So far, only 66,000t of the October line-up is from Saudi Arabia.
Agreements with Morocco's OCP totalled 1.5mn t of DAP up to the end of the calendar year. The July-October line-up for DAP deliveries from Morocco now totals 1.01mn t, implying that around 0.5mn t is left to be supplied under the agreement.
Together, the Saudi and Moroccan DAP secured in the agreements probably cover most of India's remaining import demand to the end of December.
Before buying any additional cargoes through tenders or in spot deals, importers are keeping to the sidelines, waiting for the government to announce its latest nutrient-based subsidy for the October-March rabi season.
Through the kharif season, the government covered importers' and producers' losses left by the gap between the maximum retail price, the subsidy, and their costs. Importers are waiting to find out if that support will continue into rabi before committing to new business.
