Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras cut its spending plans by $7bn to $91bn in its 2026-2030 business plan, it said on Thursday.
Petrobras outlined $109bn in overall capital spending in the current plan, down from $111bn in the previous five-year plan.
The firm envisages $69.2bn in upstream spending over the next five years, of which around 62pc — about $42.6bn — is earmarked for pre-salt assets and $7.1bn for exploration. The figures represent an overall decrease from the $77.3bn in the previous plan. Pre-salt assets increased its share in the spending from 60pc, but their investments decreased from $46bn in the 2025-29 plan.
Petrobras set $18bn to its evaluation portfolio. Of the total, $9bn will go for upstream activities, $5bn for refining and other activities, and $5bn for natural gas and low-carbon initiatives. The upstream figure is nine times higher than the envisioned amount in the previous plan, while refining figures increased slightly from $4bn. But gas and low-carbon initiatives decreased from $8bn from the previous plan.
Exploration spending of $7.1bn is split between offshore fields in Brazil's south and southeast, the equatorial margin and foreign assets such as Colombia, Sao Tome and Principe, and South Africa.
Petrobras received the environmental license to drill a well in the environmentally-sensitive equatorial margin in October.
The company expects eight new projects to come on line by 2030, with seven new floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) platforms — most of them in the pre-salt — and the Raia project, which Petrobras does not operate. The firm also expects 16 complimentary projects in the pre-salt, 15 in the post-salt and eight in onshore regions.
The new FPSOs include the P-79, P-80, P-82, P-83 units in the Buzios field, P-84 in the Atapu field and P-85 in the Sepia 2 field. All units have capacity of 225,000 b/d and all fields are in the pre-salt Santos basin.
Petrobras included the deepwater oil and natural gas project Sergipe Aguas-Profundas in the plan, expecting its partial conclusion by 2030. Mines and energy minister Alexandre Silveira said this week that the executive veto on the new crude royalties formula was "a way to push Petrobras to maintain its investments from its previous plan," including the Seap and the Campos field revamp project.
The firm expects oil and natural gas production to hit 3.3mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) by 2030, with peak production at 3.4mn boe/d in 2028-29. The figures represent an overall increase from 3mn boe/d in the previous plan and an increase from 3.2mn boe/d for the 2028-29 timeframe.
Petrobras' plan considered Brent crude prices at an average of $63/bl for 2026 and $70/bl for 2027-2030. It also considered average US dollar-Brazilian real exchange rate of R5.80/$1 in 2026-2030, it said.
Refining, fertilizers
Combined spending on refining, transportation, sales, petrochemicals and fertilizers is set to fall by over 19pc from the previous five-year cycle to $15.8bn, despite a forecast increase in diesel production.
The company aims to prioritize 10ppm diesel over 500ppm. It will produce the fuel mainly in 21mn m³/d Boaventura Energy Complex, in southeastern Rio de Janeiro state, and in its recently upgraded 230,000 b/d Abreu e Lima plant in northeastern Pernambuco state, it said.
Petrobras plans to focus investments on expanding and upgrading refineries with low-carbon fuels production, it said. The company aims to increase its installed processing capacity to 2.1mn b/d by 2030, up from 1.8mn b/d today, without acquiring or building new refining assets, it said.
The firm also plans to increase logistics in the center-west and north, it said. Those plans include spending $2bn to build 20 cabotage vessels, 18 barges and charter other 40 supporting vessels for oil and gas production.
The nitrogen fertilizers plant UFN-III in Tres Lagoas, in central-western Mato Grosso do Sul state, is the main investment in the sector, it said. Spending on the fertilizer sector is stable from the previous five-year plan.
Energy transition in the corner
Energy transition investments decreased by nearly 20pc from the previous plan to $13bn.
While investments in bioproducts — including ethanol, biodiesel and biomethane — rose by over 11pc to $4.8bn, planned spending for decarbonization operations fell by 19pc to $4.3bn. Investments in low-carbon energies almost halved to $3.1bn.
But spending on research and development initiatives grew by 20pc to $1.2bn.
The plan earmarks $4bn in spending on natural gas and low-carbon energy projects, up by 54pc from the previous plan.
Petrobras will prioritize ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane production through partnerships and shared assets, in tandem with its own projects for renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel and biobunker prompted by regulatory advances, it said.
