New York Harbor winter RBOB prices reached record highs on Wednesday as bullish futures and tight regional supply persisted.
New York Harbor barge winter RBOB prices rose by 2.61¢/USG to $3.55/USG on Wednesday, the highest level for winter RBOB since Argus assessments began in 2006. Futures rose for the fourth consecutive session as global oil supply concerns persisted on ongoing tensions in the Mideast Gulf. Differentials settled at 6.75¢/USG premium over the Nymex contract on Wednesday, compared with a 2.5¢/USG premium a year earlier and a 0.5¢/USG discount in 2024. Differentials were supported by the rally in cash price and widening backwardation in the front-month Nymex spread. The October/November Nymex spread settled at +25.18¢/USG on Wednesday, compared with about +6¢/USG a year earlier and about +2¢/USG in 2024.
Prompt bid levels rose consistently throughout the day on stronger demand, while market participants continued pointing to tight prompt supply at the beginning of high RVP gasoline season. The logistics of managing summer gasoline tank bottoms and tank turnovers this month followed on weeks of seasonally low imports and production levels during the summer, resulting in thinner inventory levels through RVP transition. Blending economics also tightened this week on more expensive high-octane gasoline components, such as alkylate and reformate, while imports remained thin on a shut transatlantic arbitrage.
New York Harbor gasoline imports are expected to rise this month but will likely not alleviate prompt supply tightness over the next few weeks, according to market participants. Gasoline cargo arrivals are projected to total about 6.7mn bl in September, according to vessel tracking service Vortexa, compared with about 5.9mn bl a year earlier and about 7.2mn bl in the same period of 2024.
Atlantic coast gasoline imports averaged 358,000 b/d in the August through mid-September period, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, compared with 471,000 b/d a year earlier and 539,000 b/d in 2024.
Gasoline stocks on the central Atlantic coast — the five-state region that includes New York Harbor — dropped to the lowest point since November 2024 at 24.3mn bl the last week of August, according to EIA data. Inventories rose to 25.1mn bl last week but were still about 10pc below a year earlier. Total Atlantic coast gasoline stocks have mostly been trending lower since late June on thinner local production and imports.

