The need for adaptation has gained significance for developed countries, giving the topic more traction, writes Georgia Gratton
Climate resilience, and adapting to growing weather extremes, has taken on further significance in light of record-breaking heatwaves and ongoing disruption from one of the strongest El Nino events the world has experienced.
El Nino effects are set to continue into 2027, while the UN has warned that the world will almost inevitably overshoot the Paris agreement goal to limit a global rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This firmly places climate resilience in the spotlight, just ahead of the UN Cop 31 climate summit, set for 9-20 November in Antalya, Turkey.
Cop summits typically focus on mitigation — cutting emissions — and adaptation, meaning adjusting where possible to the effects of climate change. Adaptation can play second fiddle in Cop outcomes, and is often framed as an issue for the most vulnerable countries, such as low-lying, small island developing nations. But the need for adaptation has risen up developed countries' agendas, possibly opening the door for the topic to gain greater traction in formal negotiations.
Adaptation discussions at the halfway-point of technical climate talks in Bonn, Germany, in June stalled, as countries could not reach an agreement, including on finance for adaptation. Proposals for work on the global adaptation goal "sparked strong disagreement", according to think-tank IISD's Earth Negotiations Bulletin. Adaptation-related items were pushed through for further discussions at Cop 31. A note from UN climate officials this week reiterated that "adaptation will remain a central priority", including discussions on financial support for developing countries. The officials encouraged "pragmatic engagement".
Developing countries have submitted 81 national adaptation plans in recent years, while developed nations are working to improve policies. The EU this week released a climate resilience framework, asking its member states to prepare for a 3°C rise in temperature above pre-industrial levels by 2100. "Almost no part of our continent was spared from damaging climate extremes" this summer, the European Commission said this week. European power systems were particularly affected, as a lack of rainfall constrained hydropower, while low river levels shut nuclear plants and prevented deliveries of oil products and coal.
The UK is legally required to produce adaptation plans. It should prepare for "intensifying heat, growing flood risk, rising drought and wildfire risk", the country's independent advisory Climate Change Committee said this year. It warned that the UK energy system is at risk from flooding, high winds, heat and drought.
Economic costs growing
Outside Cops, countries will be looking to avoid the financial implications of failing to adapt. Even wealthy countries will be reluctant to add to a fiscal burden by stepping in to guarantee or insure property where the private sector will not. "The economic case for action is compelling. Material losses from weather and climate-related events are rising sharply," the commission said. Annual economic losses from climate extremes in the EU are at around €50bn ($56bn), but the 2026 heatwaves cost an estimated €113bn across 30 countries, it said.
Developing countries are submitting requests to the loss and damage fund that they agreed at Cop 27 to set up to aid the most vulnerable countries in dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The fund's board said that 119 countries have submitted requests totalling $2.8bn, although decisions are not expected until after Cop 31, and the fund currently only holds around $820mn.
Governments have linked climate resilience and adaptation to a broader quest for security and sovereignty. Climate resilience must "become a defining feature of Europe's competitiveness, security and prosperity", the commission said.
