North America LNG - Editor's Market Update

The Argus Gulf Coast fob price for cargoes loading in October stood at $10.37/mnBtu on 8 September, after ranging between $9.77/mnBtu and $10.42/mnBtu over the last fortnight. The price has tracked delivered European markets, with the interbasin arbitrage to ship US cargoes to Asia remaining mostly closed.

Europe is poised to attract uncommitted cargoes in the Atlantic basin in October-November, based on forward prices at present. Many Asian importers are well supplied even just with output capacity in the Pacific basin until the beginning of winter, market participants said. Some have committed to selling their fob cargoes from the US to European buyers in the winter, they added.

China’s 6mn t/yr Beihai LNG terminal has received its second shipment of LNG from Russia’s 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 export terminal, which is under US sanctions. If sanctioned supply from Russia is able to be delivered to China more regularly, Atlantic supply may be more incentivized to deliver within the same basin.

In the long term, US contracting activity has continued to accelerate, led this month by train 5 of NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG expansion. The company finished commercializing train 5 with the sale of 1mn t/yr to ConocoPhillips on 8 September, less than a week after it announced a deal to supply 1.5mn t/yr to US gas producer EQT.

US LNG projects have now signed 24.95mn t/yr in binding offtake agreements this year, more than twice the volume signed in 2024 and above the 23.6mn t/yr signed in 2023. The commercial momentum comes after President Donald Trump lifted the previous administration's pause on new LNG export permits in February.

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Author: Tray Swanson, Associate Editor, LNG