Argus Chief Economist David Fyfe explores the global events impacting commodity markets. Through podcasts and blog posts, this series looks at the micro issues affecting one or more markets, and places them in a macro context. Listen or read to be kept informed of the latest developments.
Argus podcast episodes are available on a variety of podcast platforms as well as the Argus Blog, where each episode can be streamed and is provided with a full transcript and related links.
08 abril 2021
Borrowing the nautical maxim that convoys sail at the speed of their slowest ships, a complete oil and commodity demand recovery requires more than just ongoing economic rebound in the US & China.
Filter:Petróleo Global Inglês Ásia-Pacífico Europa América do Norte
18 março 2021
Four months after the US election, and despite expectations that an incoming Biden Administration would prioritise an early breakthrough, resuscitation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme more realistically looks like a late-202...
Filter:Petróleo Global Ásia-Pacífico Oriente Médio América do Norte Inglês
03 março 2021
The Forth Bridge in Scotland was opened on the 4th of March 1890. Opec+ Ministers will hope their meeting on the same date 131 years later provides a bridge to both stronger oil demand and sustainably higher prices.
Filter:Petróleo Global Inglês África Antiga União Soviética América Latina e Caribe Oriente Médio América do Norte
23 fevereiro 2021
Commodity prices have moved sharply higher since November amid disrupted supply, healthy Chinese import demand and vaccine successes, with imminent demand recovery and broader inflation concerns now stoking expectations of a commodity super-cycle. However, persistent ec...
Filter:Petróleo Metais Gás natural/GNL Global Inglês Ásia-Pacífico Europa Oriente Médio América Latina e Caribe América do Norte
17 dezembro 2020
China’s imports of key commodities, totalling 2 billion tons and covering energy, agricultural products and metals, were up by a robust 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) during January-November 2020, with iron ore, soy, meat products and crude oil the strongest performers.
Filter:Ásia-Pacífico Inglês Agriculture Carvão Petróleo Fertilizantes GLP/LGN Metais Gás natural/GNL Petroquímicos
10 dezembro 2020
Sentiment may be shifting to the upside for a US shale sector that recently took a standing count, but is it premature to herald fledgling recovery for a sector battered by collapsing demand, slumping prices, capital starvation, bankruptcies and an incoming Biden Admini...
Filter:Petróleo Global América do Norte Inglês
17 novembro 2020
Events since early November have boosted equities, strengthened crude oil prices, placed a floor under the USD index and moderated some of the recent safe-haven demand for gold.
Filter:Petróleo Derivados de petróleo Global Inglês África Europa América Latina e Caribe Oriente Médio América do Norte
02 novembro 2020
Intra-day crude volatility has doubled since early-September, on renewed uncertainty over Opec+ intentions, recovering Libyan production, weakening oil demand amid resurgent Covid-19 and, not least, a fractious US Presidential and Senate election campaign, which may see...
Filter:Petróleo América do Norte Inglês
26 outubro 2020
The annual autumn glut of energy outlooks shows disparate potential global oil demand levels by 2040, with Covid-19’s aftermath now augmenting energy transition pathways as a source of uncertainty.
Filter:Petróleo Global Inglês Petroquímicos Frete e Transporte África Ásia-Pacífico Europa América Latina e Caribe América do Norte
30 julho 2020
The Covid-19 caseload is rising again and commodity markets have lost some of their earlier optimism, so a steady hand will be required to implement policies that help avoid another phase of blanket lock-down.
Filter:Petróleo Metais Global Inglês África Ásia-Pacífico Europa América Latina e Caribe Oriente Médio América do Norte Fertilizantes Gás natural/GNL
22 junho 2020
As summer arrives and the world emerges from lock-down, hopes are high for gradual economic and oil demand recovery. Alongside reasonable levels of Opec+ discipline, this could help place a floor under crude prices. But whisper it quietly, a bleaker scenario also exists...
Filter:Petróleo Global Inglês África Ásia-Pacífico Europa América Latina e Caribe Oriente Médio América do Norte
22 maio 2020
US shale’s decline and recovery trajectory from 2014-2017 is unlikely to be replicated this time around. A different market backdrop, financial pressures and sector consolidation all point towards a “hockey stick” path, with a steep decline and shallower recovery likely...
Filter:Petróleo América do Norte Inglês
13 abril 2020
Argus Media Chief Economist David Fyfe reviews last week's Opec+ and G20 meetings and the resulting, highly-anticipated crude oil production cut agreement.
Filter:Petróleo Global África Ásia-Pacífico Europa Antiga União Soviética América Latina e Caribe Oriente Médio América do Norte Inglês
06 abril 2020
British Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson said during the 1960s that “a week is a long time in politics”. If so, a month seems like an eternity for an oil market buffeted by coronavirus and the Opec+ fracturing that took place on 6 March in Vienna.
Filter:Petróleo Derivados de petróleo Global Inglês Ásia-Pacífico Europa América Latina e Caribe Oriente Médio América do Norte
24 março 2020
Argus Chief Economist David Fyfe considers more broadly the changes this cruel coronavirus episode might force upon international commerce, global relations and the commodity markets.
Filter:Petróleo Derivados de petróleo Global Inglês África Ásia-Pacífico Europa Antiga União Soviética América Latina e Caribe Oriente Médio América do Norte Carvão Fertilizantes GLP/LGN Metais Gás natural/GNL Petroquímicos Frete e Transporte
12 março 2020
Riyadh may have decided the strategy of pursuing price, rather than market share, which served it well in the past, is now just too big a stretch.
Filter:Petróleo Global Inglês
04 março 2020
Nailing jelly to the wall…continuously: Uncertain times call for exceptional measures. That’s what confronts Opec+ producers as they meet on 5 and 6 March in Vienna.
Filter:Petróleo Global Inglês
21 fevereiro 2020
As the petroleum industry gathers in London for its annual IP Week jamboree, it seems assailed on several fronts along its planning horizon: economic downturn and coronavirus in the short-term; consolidation and slower supply growth from US shale in the medium-term; and...
Filter:Petróleo Derivados de petróleo Global Inglês
27 novembro 2019
Early indications suggest that Opec+ may simply extend their existing output deal beyond March 2020 when they meet on 5-6 December in Vienna. Broader commodity markets have shifted higher amid signs of an imminent stage-one US-China trade deal, and the IMO 2020 bunker r...
Filter:Petróleo Global Inglês África Oriente Médio América Latina e Caribe Europa
07 agosto 2019
From the Economist's Chair: The geopolitics of crude - Trade disputes, sanctions and changing trade flows. Geopolitics remain pivotal in influencing crude prices and investor sentiment – to both the upside and downside.
Filter:Petróleo Global Inglês Derivados de petróleo África Ásia-Pacífico Europa América Latina e Caribe Oriente Médio América do Norte
12 julho 2019
Welcome to the first in our blog post series from David Fyfe, Chief Economist at Argus Media. In this episode, Dr. Rouben Indjikian, lecturer in energy and commodities at Webster University Geneva speaks to David about the state and future of global energy.
Filter:Global Petróleo Derivados de petróleo Inglês Ásia-Pacífico Europa Oriente Médio América do Norte