Angelika: Welcome to another episode of “Back from the Fields” ! Here we give you our view on the Black Sea wheat crops market. For more insights on Black Sea region production, we conduct crop tours in Ukraine, Russia and Romania throughout the year that can be found in the AgriMarkets Outlook weekly and monthly service.
My name is Angelika Melikian, I’m in charge of the Argus crop tours programme. I am joined today by my colleague Alexey Yeromin, our senior analyst. Alexey is based in Ukraine and focuses on Ukraine crop tours.
Alex: Hi Angelika, hi everyone, yes, today we are diving deep into the results of our recent virtual crop tours covering the Black Sea region. Specifically, we’re looking at Argus’ first forecasts for the 2026-27 wheat season in Ukraine and Romania.
Angelika: Can you tell us more in detail how winter sowing has started in Ukraine?
Alex: Absolutely. Let’s jump straight into the data. We’ve analysed the numbers that we got from the virtual tour, and for Ukraine, the forecast is rather optimistic as of today. We are forecasting that Ukraine's wheat production for the 2026-27 marketing year is likely to hit 23.9mn t.
Angelika: It’s a solid number. And this production is above the previous season's 23mn t, isn’t it?
Alex: Exactly. It’s a year-on-year increase, and crucially, it keeps us above the four-year average of around 22mn t — we use a 4-year average instead of a 5-year average because we’ve been using this since the conflict began in the region.
Angelika: What is driving that growth, Alexey? Is it purely yield-based, or have farmers managed to expand wheat planted areas?
Alex: In our forecast it’s actually a combination of both. On the areas side, we are seeing a slight recovery. We expect the total wheat harvested area to rise to 5.2mn hectares. That’s up from 5.1mn last year and comfortably above the four-year average.
Angelika: That’s quite impressive given the logistical and geopolitical constraints in Ukraine. But I have to ask about the weather. From what I tracked during the planting window, the weather conditions seemed incredibly volatile — dry spells followed by heavy rain. Did this hamper winter planting?
Alex: You’re right, it wasn’t plain sailing. The weather was very mixed across the country. We saw heavy rainfall leading to significant delays in planting, meaning there is more late-sown crop this year than ideal. However — and this is the key takeaway from the tour — that rainfall was a blessing in disguise.
Angelika: Let me guess, it’s because of the soil moisture levels?
Alex: Precisely. Despite the delays, our crop tour rates the winter wheat condition as better than last year. Moisture levels in the main producing regions are sufficient to support early development. As a result, we are forecasting yields at 4.60 t/hectare — it’s not a big increase, just a tick up from last year's 4.55 t/hectare. This is based on an increase in planted and harvested areas, and some increase in our forecasts. And improved yields led us to about 1mn t higher than last year on new crops.
Angelika: So, Ukraine is looking at a slight expansion in both area and yield. That’s a bearish signal for prices, perhaps, but good news for supply.
Alex: It seems so. But let’s shift focus to another country of our crop tours, Romania. Angelika, does the situation there mirror what we are seeing in Ukraine?
Angelika: In Romania, crops conditions are also rather good for winter wheat and rapeseed this year. But last year they also were very good in the country. You know that every crop tour before and after the winter, we rate the observed fields and compare the final result with the historical data and the previous year’s result. So, this year, the score is among the best since Argus started crop tours in Romania, but also the same as last year.
Alex: So, we forecast Romanian wheat production to reach 12.2mn t for the 2026-27 season, compared with the record this season of close to 13mn t. It would also be above the five-year average.
And how does the area look compared with Ukraine’s forecast increase?
Angelika: You’re right Alexey, last year we had 13 mnt of production, this year we estimate 12.2mn t, still above the five-year average. Wheat areas for 2026-27 are expected at 2.4mn hectares compared with 2.3mn hectares in 2025-26.
Higher winter crop areas, including rapeseed and other winter crops, will reduce areas for spring crops, including corn and sunflower. Farmers’ decisions to plant higher winter crop areas come on the back of insufficient precipitation, quality problems and lower margins for spring crops for several seasons now in Romania.
We expect a strong increase in the planted areas for rapeseed, replacing sunflowers. The winter barley planted areas, in line with those of winter wheat, are also on the rise, replacing corn in particular. Farmers have been motivated by high yields for wheat and barley and attractive prices, especially for barley this season. The good sowing conditions this autumn have also favoured the increase in areas.
Alex: Yes, I’ve seen that autumn rains were regular and sufficient across most wheat-growing regions in Romania, like in Ukraine, replenishing soil moisture to above-average levels.
Angelika: You’re right, Alexey, there is only one watchpoint: western regions have started winter sowing in dry conditions, but later rains mitigated concerns for wheat. And heavy rains in the east delayed the corn harvest and slightly postponed wheat sowing. But overall we assume that the impact on winter crops is limited.
So, the Romania wheat yield is projected at 5 t/hectare, just above the long-term trend, but below the record yield of this season at 5.7 t/hectare.
Alex: So lower yields than last year, but the second-highest wheat production in Romania. That’s the current situation. From now on, wheat production potential will depend on winter and spring precipitation and temperatures in both countries. And the possibility of winter kill and late-spring frosts in Ukraine, in particular. That’s why — and just a reminder to our listeners — these are preliminary forecasts based on the winter situation.
Angelika: Yes! And we will update these first forecasts in our next crop tour reports in late March-early April, when the crops emerge from winter dormancy.
We have finished our podcast. Thank you, Alexey. Thank you all for listening to us for analysis, insights, prices and crop tour updates. Make sure to check out our AgriMarket services — we have daily, weekly and monthly reports that can help you get ahead of the markets. Goodbye, everyone.
