Mining expansions essential for net zero: UK think-tank

There is no fundamental shortage of raw materials for the transition to a net zero economy, but expansions in mining will be needed to raise supply, London-based net zero coalition Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) has said.

The ETC's Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition report published earlier this month drew attention to supply gaps and possibly elevated prices for six key materials, namely cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, neodymium and nickel. But it pointed out that technological advancements, higher materials efficiency and recycling can potentially close supply gaps through to 2030, and efforts to accelerate materials efficiency and recycling especially for battery materials and copper ought to be "strongly supported and required by public policy".

Measurements to improve materials and technology efficiency will in the short-term have the greatest impact in cutting material intensity — especially for battery materials — while impacts from recycling will be realised in the mid-to-long term. "Accelerating recycling on its own will not be sufficient to close supply gaps in 2030," the report said, pointing out potential over-capacity.

Actions of utmost importance include introducing higher efficiency of solar, batteries and electrolysers to cut material intensity for copper, rare earths, and silicon, improving wind farms' load factor, as well as a faster shift to lithium-iron-phosphate and nickel-free batteries, while improving battery energy densities. A shift to sodium-ion batteries post-2030, with density improvements and slower battery pack size growth, can dramatically cut lithium demand by 40pc to around 570,000t in 2050, the report said.

The report used four scenarios — Baseline Decarbonisation, High Efficiency and Innovation, High Recycling, and Maximum Efficiency and Recycling — and found that there is no long-term resource adequacy problem even under the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario.

The big challenge

The ETC called for speedy and concerted action to achieve goals.

"Concerted action from policymakers, miners and investors will be needed in order to create certainty of future demand, accelerate mine development timescales, increase current capital expenditure from $45bn each year up to $70bn through to 2030, and increase mining productivity," the ETC report said.

Under the Baseline Decarbonisation scenario, steel and aluminium supply will keep up with rising demand until 2030, with recycled materials playing an important role. But recycling is less significant for copper, graphite, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, as very few electric vehicles will have reached end-of-life by then. The supply gap for lithium is estimated to be around 33pc by 2030, 15pc for nickel, 40pc for cobalt, 10pc for copper, 45pc for graphite anodes and 28pc for neodymium (see table).

The report pointed out a need for over 1.5bn EVs and around 200mn of electric trucks and buses by 2050 to achieve a "near-total decarbonisation" of global vehicle fleet, requiring a total battery capacity of up to 150TWh. Argus forecasts that global EV sales will grow to over 40mn units/yr by 2030, up from 6.8mn in 2021.

"I think cars will go electric. I think within five or ten years, we are going to have plenty of electric cars on the road which have a range of 600 kilometres," ETC chairman and UK House of Lords member Adair Turner had said in December last year. "Hydrogen is going to play an enormous role in the overall path to net zero, but I think almost no one is going to ever drive a passenger hydrogen car."

The ETC also highlighted the long-term environmental impact of material extraction, such as extraction-caused-deforestation, local waste pollution, and exacerbation of water stress. It said that any future deep-sea mining should proceed with "strong caution and high standards for environmental impacts", as discussions around the matter have heated up recently with climate groups and nations calling for a moratorium.

"The transition to a low-carbon, highly electrified energy system will mean a shift away from consumable fossil fuels, which have to be mined continuously to operate the energy system every single year, to a system based on durable metals, which can and should be reused and recycled at end of life," the ETC report said.

By Joseph Ho