Argus Steelmaking Raw Materials Outlook

The service is updated monthly to provide a rolling 24-month forecast horizon. Each update includes refreshed assumptions based on the latest supply-demand balances, macroeconomic factors, energy and freight trends, global trade flows, and signals of increasing constraints or expansions in key deposits.

The Outlook provides global coverage with regional and country-level detail for:

Crude steel: Production outlook for major producers including China, India, EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, North America, and Rest of World.

Iron ore: Forecasts for production, imports and exports, with benchmarks for 58pc, 61pc, 62pc, and 65pc Fe fines on a cfr Qingdao basis, reflecting changes in ore quality and the resources pipeline from major deposits.

Metallurgical coal: Import and export forecasts alongside price forecasts for seaborne premium low-vol, mid-vol, semi-soft, PCI, and regional benchmarks including US high-vol A and B grades, with links to coke demand from the steel industry.

Trade flows: Analysis of iron ore and met coal movements across major shipping routes, including Australia-China, Brazil-Asia, US-Europe, and more.

Additional supporting fundamentals: Hot metal/pig iron and DRI-HBI production trends, capacity utilisation, policy-driven shifts, and the availability of recycled iron units as a complementary material stream.

The outlook also tracks how shifts in raw material resources—such as new iron ore deposits, depletion of mature deposits, and recycled feed availability—can change the steel industry cost curve and trade patterns. These factors matter as manufacturing and heavy industry seek more sustainable pathways while maintaining high production volumes measured in tons.

No. The Outlook focuses exclusively on crude steel production fundamentals and steelmaking raw materials (iron ore and met coal), where the quality of ore from different deposits and the reliability of resources directly influence costs in the steel industry. It does not include finished steel or scrap prices. For scrap pricing, Argus offers a dedicated Argus Scrap Markets service.

The Outlook includes forward price forecasts, updated monthly, for:

Iron ore: Cfr China prices for 58pc, 61 pc, 62 pc, and 65pc Fe fines.

Metallurgical coal: Fob benchmarks including Australian premium low-volatile (PLV), Australian PCI, Australian mid-vol and semi-soft, US high vol A and high-vol B.

Price outlooks incorporate forecast commentary explaining drivers such as energy costs, trade disruptions, demand risk scenarios, and changes in mining resources and deposits.

Argus uses a statistical time-series econometric framework combined with analyst validation, which:

• Models interconnected commodity relationships (steel, iron ore, met coal) using multivariate VECM models.
• Incorporates macro drivers such as GDP trends, energy prices, and global freight rates.
• Responds to short-term shocks such as policy changes, weather disruptions, and geopolitical events.
• Ensures market realism with analyst adjustments aligned to observed fundamentals (imports, inventories, capacity usage).

Forecast outputs are tested against market consensus signals and fully documented in the methodology section of each report.

Subscribers receive:

• Monthly PDF report: Approximately20-25 pages of narrative analysis, price outlooks, key drivers, and charts.
• Excel dataset: Detailed data tables for all forecasts (prices, production, trade, and capacity).
• API access: Optional integration for real-time consumption in your internal systems.
• Charts and visualisations: Trade-flow maps, fundamentals dashboards, and price trajectory comparisons.

The Outlook prioritises analysis for:

China: Crude steel trends, environmental policy impacts on output, iron ore and coking coal sourcing strategies, and the role of domestic and seaborne resources and deposits.

India: Production growth, import dependency, and the role of BOF vs DRI capacity.

Japan, South Korea and Taiwan: Shifts toward green steel technologies and their raw materials impact.

North America & EU: Policy-driven decarbonisation scenarios, carbon costs, and implications for raw material demand.

Rest of World: Coverage for Latin America, southeast Asia and Africa with an emphasis on export supply, new deposits, and logistics.

Yes. The analysis includes hot metal/pig iron output and direct reduced iron (DRI-HBI) production trends as part of the broader steelmaking fundamentals. This informs shifts in iron ore and coal requirements by route (BF-BOF vs DRI-EAF), including the role of recycled feed and the differing suitability of hematite, magnetite and limonite ores.

Yes. Forecasts explicitly account for scenarios such as US-Iran tensions, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism implementation in Europe, and China environmental curbs, which can alter price and trade flow dynamics. Commentary notes where downside or upside risks may deviate from the central case forecast.

The Outlook is a decision-support tool for:

• Steelmakers and integrated mills
• Iron ore and metallurgical coal producers
• Trading companies and brokers
• Procurement and supply chain teams
• Banks, investors and government agencies

Yes. Subscribers receive:

Price forecasts for all covered benchmarks (iron ore and met coal). Production forecasts by country, including crude steel, pig iron, and DRI-HBI. Imports and exports by region and flows by major routes. Supply-demand balances for iron ore and metallurgical coal, including how disruptions at key deposits can move prices and volumes in tons.

These datasets are structured for easy integration into analytical tools and planning models.

While the primary focus is on iron ore and met coal fundamentals, macro factors such as freight costs, oil prices, and currency risk are incorporated into assumptions and scenario analysis to provide realistic outlooks. Exchange data (e.g., LME, CME) is not part of this product but available through other Argus services.

Benefits

• Unify planning: Bring together crude steel, iron ore and met coal outlooks in a single view.
• Accelerate decisions: Act on forward market signals with confidence.
• Improve budgeting accuracy: Build cost assumptions aligned to fundamentals.
• Strengthen internal alignment: Share consistent outlooks across teams.

Steelmaking raw materials are the various inputs necessary to produce steel such as iron ore, coking coal, fluxes, scrap and others. Iron ore and coking coal are the primary raw materials used in the production of steel and remain core raw materials for most integrated routes. Iron ore is processed to extract iron, and the iron-bearing ore—often hematite or magnetite—then feeds blast furnaces or direct reduction processes, where it is combined with coking coal to produce steel.

The quality and characteristics of these raw materials, including chemical impurities, oxide mineralogy and moisture, directly affect steelmaking efficiency, furnace performance and final steel quality. Understanding the properties, deposits and processing methods of iron ore and coking coal is essential for optimizing steel production, managing demand risk and meeting market requirements.

At the mine and beneficiation stage, iron ore comes from geological deposits hosted in rocks, and the dominant iron minerals are hematite, magnetite and, in some regions, limonite. Ore quality depends on chemical composition, oxide forms, gangue minerals and moisture, all of which influence downstream processing and steelmaking performance.

Impurities such as sulfur, phosphorus, and moisture in iron ore and coking coal can reduce steel quality, increase production costs, and cause operational challenges, including higher furnace fuel rates and unstable heating. Controlling impurity levels is crucial for producing high-grade steel. Blending different ore types, including hematite, magnetite and limonite, can balance quality targets and support more sustainable steel production.

For iron ore, key quality factors include iron content, oxide chemistry, moisture, and low levels of impurities, which often vary by deposits and host rocks. Also, the relative proportions of hematite, magnetite and limonite, plus oxide mineralogy in the host rocks, influence grinding energy, beneficiation response and sinter or pellet behaviour

For coking coal, important factors are coking strength, ash content, sulfur, and moisture, all of which influence coke quality and steelmaking efficiency. The heating conditions in coke ovens affect coke strength and reactivity, which then shapes blast furnace stability and overall steel production efficiency.