Commodity trading firm Vitol has pushed back its peak oil demand projection to the mid-2030s and now expects consumption in 2040 to be around 7mn b/d higher than it previously forecast.
In its latest long-term outlook to 2040, Vitol said global oil demand could rise to 112mn b/d by the mid-2030s and remain close to that level with only minimal decline by the end of the forecast period. This would put 2040 demand around 5mn b/d above today's level.
Last year, Vitol forecast that oil demand would peak at 110mn b/d in 2030, hold at that level until 2035 and then fall to 105mn b/d by 2040.
Vitol's revised projections assume policymakers place more weight on economic growth than environmental goals.
The main reason for the later peak in oil demand is higher expected gasoline consumption because of slower electric vehicle uptake in the US and parts of Asia, the firm said.
Vitol expects gasoline demand to peak in the early 2030s before gradually falling to around 1.8mn b/d below current levels by 2040. Vitol's previous forecast was for consumption to decline by around 4.5mn b/d by 2040.
Diesel demand is seen rising marginally before peaking in the early 2030s, then falling by 900,000 b/d to 19.6mn b/d by 2040, driven by the electrification of light and heavy commercial vehicles.
But if EV adoption stalls and policy targets continue to be deferred, "road transport fuel demand in 2040 could exceed current projections", Vitol said.
The firm sees jet fuel demand increasing by 2.6mn b/d by 2040 as passenger traffic doubles. It expects oil demand for petrochemicals to rise by 6mn b/d over the same period.
