In addition to disrupting flows of crude and refined product out of the Mideast Gulf, the war in the Middle East is also likely to trigger an increase in demand for military specification jet-kerosine, a specialist fuel that is only produced and traded in small volumes.
What is military-grade jet fuel?
There are two main specifications of military jet fuel, JP-5 and JP-8.
The latter is Nato-grade aviation kerosine suitable for ground refuelling, and is similar to commercial grade A and A-1 jet fuel, but with certain additives. JP-5 is for refuelling aboard aircraft carriers, because its higher flashpoint — the temperature at which vapours from the fuel would ignite in air when exposed to flame — makes it safer.
Who supplies it?
For defence and security reasons, very little military-grade jet fuel is traded or exported.
The majority goes to militaries of the countries in which it is produced. Global monthly seaborne trade of both grades combined has in recent years only twice topped 100,000t, according to data from trade analytics platforms Kpler and Vortexa.
Only a few refiners export these fuels. In Europe, only Motor Oil Hellas' 180,000 b/d Corinth refinery in Greece and Moeve's 244,000 b/d Algeciras refinery in Spain have loaded JP-5 in the past two years. In Asia, South Korea's GS Caltex and SK Energy have exported JP-5 from South Korea, while Eneos has loaded some from Japan.
International trade in JP-8 appears even rarer. The most regular trade has involved US refiner Valero, which loaded cargoes from the US Gulf Coast to Israel almost every other month between May 2023 and September 2025. Moeve has loaded some from Algeciras, as has Korean refiner S-Oil from Ulsan.
How do trade flows work for military-grade jet fuel?
Destination ports for military jet fuel vary greatly, but Israel is by far the largest importer, mainly from the US Gulf Coast.
Just ahead of the start of hostilities over Iran, an Israeli firm issued a buy tender last week for military jet fuel, market participants tell Argus.
The US procurement of military jet fuel for its forces worldwide is run by the Defense Logistics Agency's energy division, DLA Energy, in Virginia. In Europe, the US can also rely on the Nato Support and Procurement Agency and the network of pipelines, including the vast Central Europe Pipeline System (CEPS), it developed in the 1950s to ensure fuel supply to military bases and airports.
DLA Energy runs four fuel purchase programs — two cover procurement within the US, a third covers its fuel needs in Europe, the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, and a fourth its requirements in the western Pacific. Details on specific supply contracts are limited. GS Caltex sells jet to the US military, company sources say, and Eneos also has military fuel contracts.
How could increased demand for military jet fuel affect trade flows?
Greater demand for military jet fuel could encourage those refiners capable of producing these grades to increase output at the expense of commercial jet fuel, potentially squeezing that market — although reduced civilian air traffic in the Middle East may offset some of those effects.
But logistics could be a problem, given the limited supply options and the threats to shipping in and around the Mideast Gulf. Greece's Corinth refinery could be a source of military jet fuel for the US and Israel, as it is only a few days' sailing time across the eastern Mediterranean and has supplied Israel in the past.
But such sailings would be well within range of Iranian missiles and drones, which have this week hit the UK's Akrotiri military base in Cyprus.
