One trader has booked around 15,000t of Vietnamese hot-dip galvanised (HDG) coil for the UK, despite the unclear quota situation, market sources have told Argus.
The tonnes were booked from two mills for September arrival and fourth-quarter clearance.
The trader started booking the material shortly after a proposed quota from the Department of Business and Trade was leaked — as first reported by Argus — despite believing it would probably be revised lower as the domestic producer is dissatisfied with the size of the Vietnamese quota.
Vietnam's proposed duty-exempt quota was 174,367t, up from less than 51,000t under the current mechanism. The trader appears to be booking on the assumption the new quota will be broadly in line with, if not higher than, the current volume. Material outside of tariff-rate quota volumes will be levied at 50pc from 1 July.
Some suggested it was a bold move, given the uncertainty over the quotas, while others said there would be strong margins, even with some duties payable, given the likely escalation in coil prices.
Hot-rolled coil prices have soared in recent weeks, after the domestic producer hiked before the proposed quotas leaked. Argus' weekly UK HRC assessment has jumped by £140/t over the course of March, and stood at £675/t ddp on 26 March. Over the same period, hot-rolled coil sheet prices have moved from around £550/t to as high as £850/t.
An anti-dumping probe is possible at some point — there has been talk about this for Vietnam and South Korea since mid-2025, but nothing has materialised. Any pending case — and no petition has been submitted — would be likely to involve Turkey too.
