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Latest market news

Tata Steel UK hikes HRC offer by £125/t

  • Market: Metals
  • 04/03/26

Tata Steel UK has increased its hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices by £125/t and hot-dip galvanised by £140-150/t for the second quarter, sources told Argus.

Some service centres have received fresh HRC offers at around £620/t ddp West Midlands, up from previous levels closer to £540-550/t ddp. Tata is staggering the increase, with another £40/t applied for May and again for June, according to some buyers. Others said they have been told that they have no HRC allocation for April and will pay £125/t staggered over May and June, with an increase of around £95/t to start with.

Tata is citing risings costs for inputs, notably slab and zinc, and the disparity between UK and European prices.

Slab has become increasingly tight, as the US-Iran war has stopped Iranian exports, while European mills have found it more economical to import semi-finished material than to increase production and purchase more emissions allowances.

Traders said trading activity has increased for the coming week, with buyers paying more for HRC stock. Some said it remains to be seen whether sheet prices, which have been as low as £540/t ddp, follow suit, given the continued low demand environment.

Impending quota changes, along with the current risk and cost of shipping from Asia, will push buyers towards more European sourcing in the coming months, sources suggest.

By Colin Richardson

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03/03/26

Brazil’s economic growth steady at 1.8pc in 4Q

Brazil’s economic growth steady at 1.8pc in 4Q

Sao Paulo, 3 March (Argus) — Brazil's economic growth held steady at a 1.8pc annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, as growth in agriculture and services was partly offset by slowing industrial activity, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) held unchanged in the latest quarter from 1.8pc in the third quarter of 2024, in line with analysts' estimates in a Trading Economics survey. That followed 2.4pc growth in the second quarter. For full-year 2025, GDP growth slowed to 2.3pc from 3.4pc in 2024 and 3.2pc in 2023, IBGE data show. Brazil's central bank has kept its target interest rate stable at 15pc since June 2025 . The agriculture sector accelerated to 12.1pc growth in the fourth quarter from 10.1pc in the third quarter, following positive annual contributions from orange, wheat and tobacco throughout 2025, IBGE said. As for the industrial sector, output eased to 0.6pc growth after a 1.7pc gain in the third quarter, mostly pushed down by construction despite gains in extractive, electricity, gas and waste management. Spending on services rose by an annual 2pc in the quarter, up from 1.2pc in the third quarter. Household spending accelerated to a 1pc annual pace in the fourth quarter, up from 0.4pc in the previous quarter. A favorable job market and expanding credit from federal programs aimed at low-income families prompted the result, IBGE said. Government spending accelerated to a 3.6pc pace from 1.8pc a quarter earlier. Exports grew by 14pc after a 7.2pc gain in the previous quarter , driven by agriculture, crude and metals. Imports, which subtract from growth, fell by 0.3pc after a 2.2pc increase in the third quarter, pushed down by chemical products machinery and crude, IBGE said. Gross fixed capital formation — which measures how much companies increase their capital goods — fell by 3.1pc in the quarter after a 2.3pc annual gain in the third quarter. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico factory contraction extends into Feb

03/03/26
News
03/03/26

Mexico factory contraction extends into Feb

Mexico City, 3 March (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted for a 23rd consecutive month in February, though at a slower pace, according to the Mexican finance executives association IMEF purchasing managers' survey. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose last month to 47.2 from a revised 46.7 in January, reflecting a slowing contraction on the month. The PMI has held below the 50-point threshold between expansion and contraction since March 2024. IMEF's purchasing managers index (PMI) sub-indexes for new orders, production and employment increased from January to February, with new orders up by 0.7 points to 45.6 and production rising 0.1 points to 46.3, both in their 23rd month of contraction. The employment sub-index made the strongest gain, up 1.1 points to 45.5, though this still marks its 25th month in contraction. Non-manufacturing IMEF's non-manufacturing PMI climbed 0.6 points to the threshold of 50, "suggesting an emergent stabilization in the services and trade sectors … with mixed signs pointing to a recovery." The PMI marked contraction in 12 of the last 14 months — rising above 50 in October and November 2025, suggesting any recovery "remains fragile and lacks a firm trajectory." Within the PMI, the sub-indices for new orders and production crossed into expansion, with new orders up 1.6 points to 50.1 and production rising 1.6 points to 50.4. Employment was also higher, rising 0.6 points to 49.8 — but still remaining in contraction for a 20th consecutive month. Forming the outlook for both PMIs, IMEF noted the higher-than-expected 1.8pc revised GDP growth in the fourth quarter — driven by "resilient retail sales" and "a slight rebound in manufacturing and construction" — is likely to lose momentum, as "the main indicators of aggregate demand point to a sustained weakening throughout 2026." On the non-manufacturing side, "private consumption has not grown, and consumer confidence suggests that this could worsen." On manufacturing, "exports have begun to lose momentum … public and private investment remains low … the labor market has deteriorated" and uncertainty over domestic and foreign economic policy dominates the outlook for GDP growth. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Blast halts Novelis plant operations in Georgia

02/03/26
News
02/03/26

Blast halts Novelis plant operations in Georgia

Houston, 2 March (Argus) — Aluminum roller Novelis' facility in Greensboro, Georgia, was temporarily shut down following an explosion and subsequent fires over the weekend that damaged operations at a site that supports the beverage can industry. The Georgia-based company did not provide details about how long the plant would be idled or the extent of the damange, telling Argus on Monday only that a blast occurred in a piece of equipment that led to a fire. Greene Country Emergency Management director Joe Bashore noted that the explosion on Sunday "appeared to originate from a bag house" and caused "significant damage" to the closest building. Blazes broke out in both areas, while some aluminum scrap and a conveyor belt also caught fire, he added. All 16 workers on Novelis' skeleton crew evacuated, and no injuries were reported. Greensboro recycles and casts used beverage cans (UBC) and other grades of aluminum scrap into ingots, which Novelis then ships to its other facilities with rolling capabilities to produce sheet products for both beverage-can body and end stock. Novelis does not expect the explosion to have a "significant impact" on the company's packaging customers, saying it would leverage its three casting operations in Kentucky — Berea, Guthrie and Russellville — and one in Oswego, New York, if needed. Still, it remains to be seen to what degree the incident will exacerbate capacity challenges in the wider aluminum industry or will affect supply and demand of UBCs and 5182 scrap, which is used to make beverage-can ends. Novelis already has been contending with production issues at Oswego after a series of fires in the fourth quarter took down that facility's hot-rolling mill and disrupted production of automotive sheet. Some rolling mills have shifted manufacturing lines away from other end markets, including beverage cans, to support Ford and other original equipment manufacturers. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico trade balance swings to deficit in Jan

02/03/26
News
02/03/26

Mexico trade balance swings to deficit in Jan

Houston, 2 March (Argus) — Mexico's trade balance returned to deficit in January, driven by a seasonal drop-off in total trade volume as well as 20.1pc in oil sales from December. Mexico posted a $6.48bn trade deficit in January, swinging from a $2.43bn trade surplus in December, statistics agency Inegi reported on 27 February. Total exports reached $48bn, while imports stood at $54.5bn in January. That compared with $60.7bn in exports and $58.2bn in imports in December. Inegi attributed the shift in the January trade balance to the swing in the non-oil balance to a $4.27bn deficit from the $4.84bn surplus in December, while the oil trade deficit narrowed slightly to $2.21bn in January from $2.41bn in December. The deficit was significantly wider than the $3.24bn deficit forecast by Mexican bank Banorte, who noted deficits are typical for January due to "front-loaded shipments from China ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations." In this case, said Banorte, the wider deficit was tied to additional strengthening of the peso in January, moving to Ps17.66 to the US dollar from Ps$18.07:$1 in December Looking ahead, Banorte sees additional volatility in 2026 in the balance on the shifting tariff environment, including higher tariffs on some goods imported from countries without free trade agreements under Mexico's new customs law, as well as the upcoming renewal process for the USMCA free trade agreement. Non-oil exports expanded 0.7pc in January to $46.9bn after a 0.4pc decline in December. Manufacturing exports edged 0.1pc higher to $43.5bn in January, after declining 0.5pc in December. Automotive exports, however, fell 2.3pc in January to $11.3bn, following on a 5.3pc drop in December. In contrast, non-auto manufacturing exports rose 1.1pc to $32.1bn after a 1.5pc increase in December, and agriculture exports grew by 5.9pc to $1.9bn, in a backdrop of relatively stable weather conditions. Non-oil mineral exports rose 15pc to $1.53bn, on the back of a 3.6pc rise in December and 16pc increase in November. Oil-related exports totaled $1.11bn in January, including $608mn in crude and $502mn in refined products, on lower prices and volumes. Exports were down 20.3pc from $1.52bn in December. Mexico's crude export basket averaged $55.34/bl, down by $0.92/bl from December and $11.55/bl lower compared with a year earlier. Crude export volumes fell to 355,000 b/d in January from 481,000 b/d in December and 597,000 b/d in November, and also below the 585,000 b/d exported in January 2025. Total imports expanded by 0.3pc in January to $54.5bn, despite a 15pc decline in consumer goods imports to $6.99bn and a 0.7pc drop in capital goods imports to $4.38bn. The increase was driven by imports of non-oil intermediate goods, up 3.9pc from December to $43.1bn, "benefitting from dollar weakness and manufacturing momentum," said Banorte. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexican central bank raises GDP outlook

02/03/26
News
02/03/26

Mexican central bank raises GDP outlook

Houston, 2 March (Argus) — Mexico's central bank raised its 2026 GDP outlook on "better-than-expected growth" in the last quarter of 2025, although uncertainty around US, Mexico Canada (USMCA) trade negotiations remains. Banxico raised its 2026 growth estimate to 1.6pc from 1.1pc provided at the last quarterly report in November, and held its 2027 growth forecast unchanged at 2pc. The bank cited statistics agency Inegi's revised estimate for fourth quarter 2025 GDP growth to an annualized 1.8pc from 1.6pc in its preliminary estimate, with growth in the agriculture sector revised to 7.8pc from the 6pc preliminary estimate. "Looking ahead to 2026, we continue to anticipate some acceleration in the pace of economic growth, though … slack conditions are expected to prevail," said central bank governor Victoria Rodriguez in the latest quarterly report on 26 February. This assumes "private consumption will increase," said Rodriguez, while "investment is forecast to remain weak, ... reflecting the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the trade relationship with the United States and the upcoming review of the [USMCA free] trade agreement." The US, Mexico and Canada are set to hold a joint review on 1 July that could extend the treaty through 2036. Formal talks began in September and, while some milestones have been completed, key issues remain unresolved. On 5 February, Banxico held its benchmark interest rate at 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, pausing the rate-cut cycle after eight consecutive cuts that began in February 2025. The bank's quarterly report held its 5 February forecasts for headline and core inflation unchanged, which convergence to the bank's 3pc target inflation rate for both metrics to the second quarter of 2027, three quarters later than the bank forecast in its November report. Despite the latest pause in rate cuts, "We will consider further cuts to the benchmark interest rate, going forward," Rodriguez said, citing the recent strength of the Mexican peso-US dollar exchange rate, which was trading at Ps17.21:$1 as of 27 February. With the report, Mexican bank Banorte maintained expectations that Banxico will issue a quarter-point rate cut at its 26 March meeting, with another cut likely before July to bring the rate to 6.5pc. Mexico's inflation accelerated to an annual 3.79pc in January from 3.69pc in December, with core prices quickening to 4.52pc in January from 4.33pc the prior month on excise tax hikes introduced on 1 January. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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