Shipowners and traders have been booking spot bunker fuel supplies further in advance since the start of the Iran–US conflict, according to data collected by Argus.
The longer lead times, between the placing of a bunker fuel order and the fuel being supplied, reflect concerns about potential supply disruptions and strategies to deal with price volatility.
Disruption to shipping through and around the strait of Hormuz has encouraged buyers to secure fuel as far as four to six weeks ahead rather than risk encountering shortages, market participants said. Argus' bunker assessments are typically for deliveries with a maximum of 9-12 days and up to 14 days for certain African ports.
The shift reflects concerns about reduced availability, with around 20pc of global crude having previously transited the strait now missing and therefore restricting supply of bunker grades. Higher freight costs have also reduced the economic incentive for suppliers to import fuel, which further reduced availability.
Very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices have strengthened sharply across major bunkering hubs since the start of the US-Iran war, reflecting tightening feedstock availability and growing supply concerns. Delivered VLSFO indications in Rotterdam have rose by around 45pc from 28 February to 31 May, prices in Panama increased by 49pc and in Singapore by 47pc.
The tightening market has been particularly evident in Fujairah, the world's fourth-largest bunkering hub, where an acute supply shortage has left most suppliers without prompt VLSFO availability until mid-June. Market participants said disruptions to regional feedstock flows and the loss of supply from Kuwait's al-Zour refinery sharply reduced local blending activity, pushing Fujairah VLSFO premiums to record highs of $500-700/t against front-month Singapore cargo values in early June.
The change in buying patterns has been happening worldwide. Delivery times for VLSFO in Singapore have extended to about 10-15 days forward in some cases, depending on supplies given tight blendstock availability, traders said this week. Typical delivery periods of about 7-10 days forward remain possible.
Singapore loadings for low-sulphur marine gasoil (LSMGO) have also slowed, with market participants expecting this to ease only in the second half of June. LSMGO supplies are tight because of delays in cargo arrivals from South Korea, and most current availability will go towards previously booked orders. The lead time for high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) has been steady at around 4-5 days, as supplies are ample in Singapore.
In Gibraltar, the average lead time in the three months before the war started was around five days. This is now 10 days. In Rotterdam the average booking period is up to 10 days from seven.
In South America, rising vessel traffic through the Panama Canal has increased congestion and lengthened waiting times. The tighter transit window has pushed bunker buyers in Balboa and Cristobal to secure fuel further in advance, with market participants reporting a shift away from prompt procurement toward longer lead-time bookings to ensure product availability and align deliveries with delayed canal crossings.
The average bunker fuel lead time in the Panama Canal increased to 14 days in March-May, from 10 days in the three months ending 28 February.
In Brazilian ports, longer lead times have also been driven by rising fuel oil export flows to Singapore, where demand for Brazilian supply has increased because of the disruption linked to the strait of Hormuz. The additional export pull has reduced feedstock availability for VLSFO blending in Brazil, tightening prompt supply at key ports like Santos and Paranagua.
Santos' average bunker fuel lead times increased to 10 days in March-May, from eight days in the three months to 28 February. In Paranagua, average lead times rose to 13 days from 10 days over the same period.
