Brazil's UN Cop 30 presidency today presented two international roadmaps intended to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation, offering practical pathways for countries with different starting points.
The roadmaps propose short-term measures that countries could implement to accelerate action through to 2033, with key UN Cop climate summits serving as milestones.
The presidency pledged during last year's summit in Belem to develop the roadmaps after countries failed to agree on the two issues. It reiterated today that the roadmaps will not be negotiated at Cop 31 in Antalya this year, but said the "political space for a frank conversation... should stay open".
The fossil fuel roadmap draws on 267 contributions, including 21 submissions representing 115 parties to the Paris climate agreement.
It breaks the transition into a series of actionable steps, beginning with a voluntary self-assessment tool through which countries can evaluate their "unique circumstances, structural conditions, exposure to fossil fuel dependence and transition capacity".
The assessment would examine countries' exposure to fossil fuels and their ability to manage the transition across three themes — energy demand, energy supply and the broader economy. The aim is to help countries identify their respective profiles and existing strengths, the presidency said.
The second step focuses on implementation, offering possible actions for countries with similar demand and supply profiles. Countries can begin acting regardless of their starting point, although the transition will require careful co-ordination, the presidency said.
"Economies with high exposure and limited capacity have most to gain from avoiding new lock-in and stranded assets as their demand for energy services grows," the roadmap report said. "Economies with strong capacity have the means to move first."
The presidency proposes advancing the roadmap through a "Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels" agenda organised around three milestones linked to future global stocktakes (GSTs), which assess progress towards the goals of the 2015 Paris accord.
Efforts should focus on institutions and long-term policy signals until 2028, when the second GST begins, the presidency said. The focus would shift towards transforming energy systems in 2028-30, when the collective goals agreed at Cop 28 are due and countries submit their next climate plans.
The presidency recommends shifting greater attention to the supply side and scaling up solutions in 2031-33, alongside the third GST.
Asked how Brazil intends to link the roadmap to the informal action agenda, a parallel process conducted alongside formal Cop negotiations, Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni told Argus that the work began under that agenda last year. The presidency will release another report at Cop 31 detailing progress under the action agenda, she said.
One role of the roadmap is to ensure countries do not lose sight of the Cop 28 consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels and to highlight elements already in place to advance that commitment, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said. The roadmap also serves as an initial contribution to the next GST process, he said.
The Cop 30 presidency also released a roadmap for stepping up efforts to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030.
It identifies areas for action under national strategies — including conservation, sustainable forest management, agroforestry and the bioeconomy, as well as measures to combat deforestation and forest degradation.
The presidency identified finance as one of the largest implementation gaps, as most tropical forests are in developing countries. Domestic public budgets accounted for 88.3pc of recorded forest finance in 2023, while international public finance provided only 3.4pc, it said.
The forest roadmap sets out international actions and indicative milestones through to 2030.
