Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
Follow the key developments in energy transition field with our Net zero page and keep up to date with ongoing coverage of these issues by following Argus Media on LinkedIn and on X.
News
August was joint-hottest month on record: EU Copernicus
August was joint-hottest month on record: EU Copernicus
London, 10 September (Argus) — Last month was the hottest August globally on record, and tied with July 2023 as the joint-hottest month recorded, data from EU earth-monitoring programme Copernicus show. The global average surface air temperature in August was 16.96°C, 0.85°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.65°C above the pre-industrial average, Copernicus data show. It was the first month since November which was recorded as above 1.5°C higher than the pre-industrial era. The Paris climate agreement seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. Western Europe experienced its warmest summer on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2003, Copernicus said. The region recorded "further heatwaves" in August, "continuing an exceptional run of extreme heat that began in May", Copernicus noted. Severe drought conditions were reported across much of Europe, including in France, the UK, Hungary, Romania and Serbia, affecting power output , transport and agriculture. European river flows were "exceptionally low", including for the Rhine , Danube, Southern Bug and Dnieper rivers, Copernicus added. The joint-highest monthly average sea surface temperature for non-polar oceans was recorded in August. It stood at 21.07°C, on par with March 2024, Copernicus said. The highest daily sea surface temperature was also recorded in August, at 21.11°C for non-polar oceans. Ocean temperatures are also extremely high in much of the tropical Pacific, where El Nino conditions "are present and forecast to further strengthen in the coming months", Copernicus said. The current El Nino event is widely expected to be one of the strongest ever recorded. El Nino, a naturally-occurring weather pattern, typically leads to higher global temperatures. Its effects — and those of its opposite pattern, La Nina — vary across regions, but can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU may drop binding green H2 targets in next RED
EU may drop binding green H2 targets in next RED
Hamburg, 10 September (Argus) — The European Commission may discontinue binding national targets for renewable hydrogen in the next iteration of its Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and could instead propose an indicative EU-wide consumption target of 8mn t/yr by 2040, based on a draft document seen by Argus . A draft commission impact assessment on a "post-2030 renewable energy framework" in RED IV includes a measure without binding quotas in its "packaged policy option". This indicates a preference for this approach over two alternatives presented in the document. The proposed measure would set "an EU indicative renewable hydrogen consumption target for energy and non-energy use in industry and refineries" of 8mn t/yr for 2040, the document states. Low-carbon electrolytic hydrogen, for example made with nuclear power, could also be considered compliant, according to the document. The EU-wide target would be backed up by "financing support and incentives at EU and national level". Renewable or low-carbon electrolytic hydrogen producers could sell credits to obligated parties under national quota systems for transport fuel suppliers, even though these would not have specific hydrogen sub-quotas beyond 2030. Unlike under the current system, hydrogen supplied to industry could generate these credits. This would effectively allow for higher costs in industry to be passed on to transport fuel consumers , thereby alleviating concerns around industrial competitiveness . The report indicates that the proposed measure with an indicative 8mn t/yr target could lead to the most effective deployment of renewable hydrogen "considering system costs and electricity integration." Meanwhile, the focus on domestic renewable hydrogen consumption and the exclusion of derivatives from targets "would incentivise that the transformation process for the derivatives production is located in the EU," according to the draft. The text does not suggest that there would be any changes to existing RED III targets with this measure. RED III requires member states to ensure that renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) meet a 1pc share in transport fuel supply by 2030. In industry, 42pc of all hydrogen must be renewable by 2030 and 60pc by 2035. The assessment considered two alternative measures. One would set binding national renewable hydrogen targets in industry and transport for 2040, in a continuation of the current RED III framework. But the text stops short of specifying potential target levels. While keeping binding national targets, the measure would involve making changes to fulfilment options. It would allow statistical transfers between member states to encourage hydrogen production in regions with the highest renewables potential. It would also allow for overachievement in industrial targets to be counted towards the transport goals and would enable member states to include low-carbon electrolytic hydrogen as a fulfilment option. The report states that this alternative measure could help "build a hydrogen economy across all member states" but might "result in the use and production of renewable electricity for hydrogen production where it is not efficient". Based on "current trends and existing legislation," the EU's electrolytic hydrogen consumption could reach 18mn t/yr by 2040, the report estimates. But hydrogen adoption may not be as cost-efficient as previously anticipated as cost declines have lagged expectations, according to the text. A third alternative would be to focus solely on monitoring progress in the hydrogen sector, while discontinuing the RED III targets and even scrapping the 2035 industry goal. With this measure, there would be no new goals or financial support mechanisms. But this would yield "a sub-optimal level" of renewable hydrogen deployment given the resulting policy uncertainty and lack of investment incentives, the report concludes. In addition, it would "highly penalise first-movers". The assessment is partly based on an initial stakeholder consultation regarding RED IV earlier this year, but the considerations on a future framework are still at a very early development stage. The RED III text took several years to be finalised and the final provisions, including on renewable hydrogen targets, reflected a compromise between the commission, the European Parliament and the European Council. By Stefan Krumpelmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Switzerland outlines administration net zero path
Switzerland outlines administration net zero path
London, 9 September (Argus) — Switzerland's federal government on Wednesday passed legislation outlining how the federal administration intends to reach its net zero target by 2040, in addition to the country's climate action regulation. The federal administration's 2040 net zero target is more ambitious than the country's overall climate target of reaching net zero by 2050, but it does not include emissions from the defence and armament sectors. It targets only scope 1 and 2 emissions — namely, direct emissions and emissions from electricity consumption. Combined with Switzerland's low-carbon power generation, the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in question were just 25,000t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, the most recent data available. Indirect emissions under scope 3, which account for about 90pc of the administration's emissions, are not yet included, and the federal government said it would set out how to address scope 3 emissions in 2028. The amended regulation, which will enter force on 1 November, expects the federal administration to reach its net zero target not just by reducing GHG emissions but also by offsetting residual emissions through negative emissions. The negative emissions may be generated both in and outside Switzerland and must be certified by the federal environment office. The government puts total costs at 1.5bn Swiss francs between 2027 and 2040, according to the guidance accompanying the regulation change. These include investments in infrastructure, switching to renewable energies such as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and purchasing carbon dioxide removal credits. Annual costs are expected to start at around SFr75mn in 2027-28 and rise gradually to around SFr145mn in 2040. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global GHG emissions reached fresh high in 2025: Report
Global GHG emissions reached fresh high in 2025: Report
London, 8 September (Argus) — Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached a record high of 55bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2025, up by 0.9pc on the year, data from the EU's independent emissions database for global atmospheric research (Edgar) show. These figures include the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector — which can act either as a source of carbon or a carbon sink. Excluding LULUCF, global GHG emissions rose to 54.1bn t/CO2e in 2025, an increase of 0.7pc on the year, Edgar found. The highest-emitting countries in 2025 were China, the US and India, with shares of 29.5pc, 11.1pc and 8.3pc of the global total, respectively, Edgar data show. The EU, Russia and Indonesia were responsible for 5.8pc, 4.8pc and 2.5pc, respectively, of global GHG emissions in 2025. These six economies account for 50.1pc of global population, 62pc of global GHG emissions and 63pc of global fossil fuel consumption, Edgar said. Of the top six emitters, the US and Indonesia recorded the most substantial increases in emissions in 2024-5 — a rise of 2.2pc or 131.5mn t/CO2e for the US and one of 1.2pc or 16.1mn t/CO2e for Indonesia. "China and India maintained or reduced their emissions levels for the first time", in 2025, Edgar said. China's GHG emissions rose by just 0.1pc or 9.6mn t/CO2e from 2024 levels, while India's emissions fell by 0.2pc in the same timeframe, Edgar said. The EU and Russia also recorded "small decreases" on the year in GHG emissions in 2025, or 0.2pc and 0.1pc, respectively, Edgar data show. Elsewhere, Japan's emissions — 2pc of the global total — dropped by 1.4pc on the year in 2025 and Australia's by 1.3pc in the same timeframe. UN Cop 31 summit host Turkey's emissions — 1.1pc of the global total — rose by 4.2pc on the year in 2025, Edgar found. Global GHG emissions increased across all sectors in 2025, apart from the power sector, which recorded a drop in emissions of 0.3pc on the year — 51mn t/CO2e — Edgar found. But power remains the "dominant" single sector, responsible for nearly 30pc of global emissions, the report added. CO2, mostly from fossil fuel combustion, "remained the dominant component of global GHG emissions" in 2025, at 73.8pc of the total, Edgar said. Methane was responsible for 17.6pc, nitrogen oxides for 5.3pc and fluorinated gases — for uses such as refrigeration and air conditioning — for 3.3pc, Edgar said. The LULUCF sector globally was a net source of carbon in 2025 of around 900mn t/CO2e — equivalent to 1.6pc of global GHG emissions that year — in part owed to wildfires, Edgar said. Wildfires generated 2.2bn t/CO2e in 2025, which was below the long-term average of 2.9bn t/CO2e since 1990. But "regional spikes were observed", Edgar said. This includes in the EU, where wildfire emissions rose by 40pc from 2024-5. Globally, deforestation in 2025 released 3.7bn t/CO2e, "offsetting more than twice the amount removed by the LULUCF sink globally", Edgar found. Around 106 countries covering approximately 72pc of GHGs have net zero emissions targets in place, IEA data show. Net zero emissions — when GHG emissions are balanced by removals from the atmosphere — would halt further global temperature increases. The Paris climate agreement seeks to curb the rise in temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Mideast war renews focus on energy security, transition
Mideast war renews focus on energy security, transition
Houston, 25 March (Argus) — The depth of the war-driven Mideast Gulf oil and gas disruption and its undetermined length has prompted renewed discussion of energy security and transition in the industry, but familiar challenges remain. The argument in favor of fossil fuels has been "that they're portable and storable," investment firm Carlyle's chief strategy officer of energy pathways Jeff Currie said at CERAWeek by S&P Global on Tuesday. "That also makes them incredibly dangerous, as we're witnessing right now in the strait of Hormuz." "One of the biggest predictions you can make out of what's currently happening is (that) it's going to turbo charge the energy transition into any fuel you want to be local, distributed and not vulnerable to other parts of the world," Currie said. Lessons from the ongoing crisis may also apply to legacy energy systems, BP chief economist Gareth Ramsay said. "We have built a wonderful oil market, which is ... incredibly efficient, but efficiency is sometimes also fragility," Ramsay said. "Will countries now ask again, 'do we need our own refining capacity? Do we need to keep our refineries online now, even if they're uneconomic, even if they're costly?'" Bigger than the '70s The magnitude of the current crisis appears to be greater than even the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which has prompted a decades-long shift in energy policies globally, Ramsay said. "There is no potential for immediate supply response," he said. Even limited attacks by Yemen's Houthis on commercial shipping through the Red sea in 2023-24 have cut flows through the Suez canal by around 50pc, Currie said. Applying the same metric to the Mideast Gulf "means you could lose between 5-10mn b/d... which will have a significant impact and be similar to the 1970s," he said. The magnitude of Mideast Gulf supply loss and price-driven demand destruction may be apparent but its duration is not, ConocoPhillips chief economist Helen Currie said. "Is this a short term drop in demand in response to higher prices and limited availability of supplies, and therefore that demand may come back by the fourth quarter or in the 2027?", she said. "It's that duration question that we're really grappling with." Long term impacts of the crisis could prompt OECD countries to significantly increase their minimum emergency oil inventory requirements, trading house Gunvor global head of research and analysis Frederic Lasserre said. The crisis also could prompt a renewed push toward energy transition, "particularly electrification", but policy decisions cannot be delayed, he said. "We have 25 years to get to 2050, and that's only one investment cycle. So we have to decide now what we do, because it's either refineries or nuclear power plants, not both." North America remains crude President Donald Trump's administration says it will stick to the course of prioritizing oil and gas development regardless of how the Mideast Gulf energy crisis evolves. Interior secretary Doug Burgum at the start of CERAWeek on 22 March touted an agreement with TotalEnergies to drop plans for offshore wind farms along the US east coast and invest in oil and natural gas production instead. The US, Canada and Mexico collectively account for 30pc of global oil output "... and we need to continue to grow that base here in North America, so that we're not as dependent on" the strait of Hormuz, industry group American Petroleum Institute president Mike Sommers said on Tuesday. Russia's war in Ukraine and the subsequent reorientation of Russian oil and gas flows in 2022 already prompted policymakers globally to try to square the issue of energy security, affordability and sustainability. The current crisis is likely to prompt similar discussions but outcomes once again are not guaranteed, Ramsay said. "To suffer a major energy supply shock once might be regarded as misfortune; to suffer a major energy shock twice begins to look like carelessness," he said, paraphrasing Oscar Wilde's The Importance of Being Earnest . "This kind of shock, the second one in four years to energy supply, is going to have major implications for our retirement system, and it's going to have implications for the oil market," Ramsay said. "This is not going to go away (if) the conflict ends today." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Adapting the global approach to climate change
Adapting the global approach to climate change
Washington's withdrawal sets back multilateral policy but economic impetus for cleaner energy remains, writes Georgia Gratton London, 30 January (Argus) — The world's approach to "climate multilateralism" must evolve in response to "geopolitical tensions", Brazilian diplomat and president of the UN Cop 30 climate summit Andre Correa do Lago said this week. Correa do Lago remains Cop president until he formally hands over the title in November to Turkish climate minister Murat Kurum at Cop 31. Cop 30 "shed light on the limitations of climate multilateralism and of formal consensus decision-making", Correa do Lago said, and "to keep pace with global warming, multilateralism must learn to operate at more than one institutional speed". He suggests a "two-tier" approach. The first tier should be based on the key tenet of climate talks such as Cops — consensus — while the second should focus on implementation, including through "coalitions of the willing", he said. Almost every country in the world is signed up to UN climate bodies the UNFCCC and IPCC, and the Paris climate accord. His call came in the same week that the US' second exit from the Paris agreement took effect, while President Donald Trump has also said the country will leave the UNFCCC and IPCC . But this would not preclude US businesses, states and cities from acting on climate change, the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency suggested this week. "We will be able to work with the other entities in the US," Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni said. And Correa do Lago's vision echoed views from business leaders and governments that were put forward at the World Economic Forum (WEF) earlier this month in Davos, Switzerland. Most acknowledged a recent slowdown in effective climate policy, centred on the US volte-face, although the majority were sanguine on the "implementation" aspect — the progress of the global energy transition. India's new and renewable energy minister, Pralhad Venkatesh Joshi, cited "the unstoppable march of renewables". Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng pointed out that his nation "has put in place the world's largest renewable energy system", and firmly reiterated China's support for climate action. "I see a climate policy recession, but not a recession in the energy transition," former US vice-president Al Gore said in Davos. "The advantages of renewable energy have become so obvious everywhere around the world," he added. Shutting out the noise Danish biotechnology company Novonesis chief executive Ester Baiget spoke in Davos about "decoupling noise from facts" — looking past a rhetoric that rails against climate change action and instead at data showing that a global energy transition is well under way. Global renewable power capacity additions grew by 22pc to almost 685GW in 2024 — a record high for both additions and installed capacity — energy watchdog the IEA said in October . Renewable power capacity is forecast to grow by 4.6TW by 2030 — double the deployment in 2019-24 — driven by solar installations, the agency found. Much of the transition is being driven by plummeting costs for renewables. "We are so far down the road that the economics have taken over… the cost of a lot of the technologies has come down so much that it is simply economic sense to keep investing," director of clean power at the UK's energy ministry, Ben Golding, told UK lawmakers this month. Future costs are another factor, Davos speakers agreed. "I'm absolutely convinced that it will cost to be an emitter," either through taxes, purchasing emissions certificates or "paying for the cost of climate change", Swedish utility Vattenfall's chief executive, Anna Borg, said. Keeping focus further ahead is key, Cop 30 chief executive Toni said this week. "We know elections are short term, climate change will unfortunately be with us long term." Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
London, 21 January (Argus) — Inconsistent policies and political turmoil have hampered western progress on electric vehicles (EVs), while China's longer-term stable approach has benefited industry winners such as BYD, speakers at a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel in Davos, Switzerland, said on Tuesday. China's lead in EVs is less about a single technological breakthrough and more about policy consistency. That was the clear message from executives and policymakers at the WEF panel on the global EV race, where China's long-term industrial alignment was repeatedly contrasted with stop-start policymaking in the US and Europe. Speaking early in the discussion, BYD executive vice-president Stella Li said China's EV successes "start from the government policy", arguing that Beijing's approach has been defined by consistency rather than constant revision. "In the past 20 years they never changed, but some countries went back and forth, and this will confuse manufacturing," Li said. "Once the government gives a very clear line, then manufacturing goes to work on the competition." This clarity, she argued, allowed companies to commit capital, concentrate on research and development and scale production without hedging against political reversals, something she suggested remains a structural disadvantage for western automakers. Industrial reality versus political instability Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, whose state accounts for more than a fifth of US car production, echoed this assessment from a US perspective, saying policy uncertainty has slowed decision-making across the industry. "The back and forth policies at the national level have made it more difficult for industry to throw all in," Whitmer said, adding that long-term investments were increasingly being delayed. "Chaos is really bad for business." The result, she added, is that manufacturers are forced to pursue multiple drivetrain strategies simultaneously, rather than committing fully to electrification. Former General Motors chief economist Elaine Buckberg said that a disconnect between political timeframes and industrial reality is critical. Automakers, she noted, plan vehicles years in advance, while democracy can change government policy over smaller time periods. "The typical planning process is five years before a vehicle comes into market, and you're planning to keep it there for six years," Buckberg said. "Keeping those incentives stable is really powerful." Alternatively, shifting incentives and short-term subsidies can distort demand. Li warned that poorly designed support schemes risk delaying purchases altogether. "Sometimes subsidies are more like a drug," she said. "Consumers just wait and the market stops. That is not sustainable." As competition between the US, China and Europe intensifies, the panel's message was that in the EV race, consistency may matter more than speed. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Developed countries struggled to lead, and oil producers pushed back, but a roadmap may emerge away from Cop, write Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton Edinburgh, 28 November (Argus) — The UN climate Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, ended last week without an agreement to establish a roadmap on how to shift away from fossil fuels that some countries had hoped to see, but the discussion will not stop there. Just over 80 countries , including EU member states, the UK, Australia, countries in Latin America and Africa, and island states had pushed for the overarching Cop 30 text to address the transition away from fossil fuels, the largest contributor to climate change, but language on a roadmap did not make the final decision. Opposition from major oil-producing countries proved too strong to push the roadmap through, European ministers said. Parties instead agreed on the launch of a "global implementation accelerator (GIA)", and the "Belem Mission to 1.5". These voluntary initiatives are aimed at "enabling ambition and implementation" of countries' climate plans and at keeping the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature rise limit within reach. This refers to the more ambitious goal of the Paris accord — to hold the global rise in temperature to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. "Although text addressing the response [to a lack of climate ambition] was watered down, there are hooks to build on within the GIA and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C," environmental think-tank E3G said. By the end of the summit, 119 countries — accounting for 74pc of global emissions — had submitted new commitments in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), non-profit group WRI noted. But these plans, if delivered, only account for 15pc of the emissions cut required by 2035 to limit the rise to 1.5°C. As a consolation prize, the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency pledged to deliver roadmaps on the transition away from fossil fuel and on halting and reversing deforestation. This echoed Cop 29's outcome, when a roadmap was promised, for scaling up climate finance to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2025 for developing countries that were left disappointed. The roadmaps "will be led by science and they will be inclusive", summit president Andre Correa do Lago said. Brazil holds the presidency until Cop 31 in Turkey next year. In the interim, the country plans to convene high-level talks with key international organisations, fossil fuel-producing and consuming countries, workers and civil society, do Lago said. He also noted that the presidency would "benefit from the first international conference for the phase-out of fossil fuels", to he held in Colombia in April. Having the roadmap in the Cop 30 text would have sent a much stronger signal, as "the main text is an obligation for all", EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said as the summit closed. But the presidency's work on a roadmap, high-level dialogues and the event in Colombia will create further milestones for climate discussions on the transition from fossil fuels, observers said. The presidency's roadmap could create momentum for the start of a plan on fossil fuels from willing countries, even though it sits outside official Cop negotiations. Fault lines The pushback from major oil and gas producers on cutting emissions by reducing fossil fuel use — evident at Cop 29 last year — grew firmer in Belem, and shows no sign of abating. The achievement at Cop 30 was not to renege on the Cop 28 consensus, French climate minister Monique Barbut said. Almost 200 countries pledged at Cop 28 in Dubai in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels "in a just, orderly and equitable manner… so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science". The Cop 28 outcome also called for renewable energy capacity to triple and energy efficiency to double by 2030 and for "accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power". The main Cop 30 text does not mention the transition away from fossil fuels, and only makes two references to the Cop 28 deal — dubbed "the UAE consensus". Even pointing to the energy package within the Dubai deal agreed two years ago proved too much for some oil-producing countries. "The [UN climate body] UNFCCC's consensus-based process, as well as the lack of a concrete proposal to create the framework for developing countries to phase out fossil fuels, hindered the adoption of a roadmap in the Cop cover decision text," the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative said. The final day of Cop 30 — which ran more than 24 hours over time — saw decisions swiftly adopted. But Colombia spoke out against one, objecting that it included no language on the transition away from fossil fuels. "We are demanding the minimum necessary," Colombia's representative said, to "allow language already agreed under [Cop 28] consensus to be discussed here". Confounding the consensus Correa do Lago suspended the plenary while the Cop 30 presidency sought a solution. Decisions adopted at Cop summits cannot be revoked. But Correa do Lago said countries will be able to discuss issues in June next year in Bonn, Germany, at interim climate talks hosted annually by the UNFCCC. Colombia's intervention prompted pushback from Saudi Arabia and a furious response from Russia. The latter told countries objecting to "refrain from behaving like children". India's representative said reopening discussions would be "fundamentally unfair" and "inconsistent" with UNFCCC process. Russia, India and Saudi Arabia throughout the summit opposed the addition of wording on fossil fuels, according to Barbut. Saudi Arabia reiterated throughout Cop 30 that the focus should be on reducing emissions, not on specific fuels. And the climate-sceptic stance taken by US president Donald Trump's administration emboldened major oil-producing countries to stand their ground more firmly this year, many negotiators and observers said. Developed nations were not forceful, at least in the first week of the negotiations, in their support for a roadmap to shift away from fossil fuels. The EU called it a "difficult topic" and was caught in controversial domestic discussions on its own targets and environmental ambitions before heading to the summit, which may have weakened its claims to leadership. Australia, which will preside over Cop 31 negotiations in Turkey next year, at first could not see a space for discussing the roadmap in Belem. And even though over 80 countries had thrown their weight behind the topic by the midpoint of the summit, details on what it would look like were lacking. China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, remained largely quiet on the topic outside negotiating rooms, redirecting attention towards renewable energy — a huge market for the country. Discussions on the transition away from fossil fuels were not expected to take centre stage at Cop , until Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for this during the leaders' summit that preceded the talks. Leadership came from developing nations, notably Colombia. And there has been an eye-catching change at this Cop in how some developing countries are reframing rhetoric around fossil fuels and economic development. Some, including those with oil projects such as Kenya and Sierra Leone, are increasingly pushing for plans to shift away from fossil fuels — in a just, equitable and orderly manner — and highlight the importance of drastically increasing energy access through the transition. A Cop 30 decision addressing "the just energy transition" was broadly well-received. The text drew links between cutting emissions and ensuring climate resilience and positive economic development. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Country focus
Colombia gets ball rolling on fossil fuel shift talks
Colombia gets ball rolling on fossil fuel shift talks
The conference offered a calmer space to discuss fraught topics and how to convert words into actions, writes Lucas Parolin Rio de Janeiro, 8 May (Argus) — A conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, held in Santa Marta, Colombia, at the end of April did not bring any new commitments to phase out hydrocarbons, but it did look to keep the topic at the top of the climate agenda. Delegates attended from about 60 countries, including some oil and gas-producing nations committed to advancing energy transition talks. Countries represented accounted for about a fifth of global oil production, a third of oil consumption and a third of the world's GDP, according to Colombian officials. Colombia and the Netherlands — co-hosts of the conference — were looking to push the topic forward outside official UN channels. Despite the historic UN Cop 28 climate summit pledge in 2023 , discussions on transitioning away from fossil fuels continue to face opposition from large hydrocarbon-producing and consuming countries, such as China, Russia, the US and Saudi Arabia, which tend to want the focus to be on reducing emissions, rather than fossil fuel output. These countries were not invited because the conference was intended to work as a ‘coalition of the willing'. Only countries " already convinced and ready to work on solutions for the transition " were invited, the Colombian environment ministry's head of international affairs, Daniela Duran, said. Santa Marta kept its focus on fossil fuels, according to non-governmental organisation Earth Insight's engagement director, Juan Pablo Osornio. Participants discussed "the input for combustion", rather than the resulting emissions, he said, adding that this could change the way countries address the topic in future. The debate is shifting from discussing climate change drivers — emissions — to their root cause — fossil fuels — something largely overlooked until Dubai. The disruption to oil and gas supplies from the closure of the strait of Hormuz could make energy security, rather than climate change, the key driver of any acceleration in consumer moves away from these fuels . But fossil fuels are responsible for 80pc of all global emissions, according to a study by the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Some countries invited to Santa Marta are still looking to only reduce emissions, but not necessarily fossil fuel usage and production. Canada and Norway stuck to their positions on production. And Nigeria — Africa's largest oil and gas producer — reiterated its call for a just transition for developing economies, saying countries should discuss a phase-down, not a phase-out, of fossil fuels. Safe space Santa Marta was not a place for new commitments, but a space for productive discussions on controversial topics. It aimed for "multilateralism without de facto vetoes" that is "capable of translating agreements into implementation", according to Colombia's environment minister, Irene Velez Torres. Three workstream plans were laid down, including one to help nations develop their own voluntary transition roadmaps. France presented one during the event, and Colombia published a draft document, intended to work as a potential template for other countries. Brazil is also working on one . The impact of Santa Marta on future Cop negotiations is difficult to assess, with the Turkish Cop 31 presidency putting progress in phasing out fossil fuels lower down the list of priorities . No country has shown it is willing to propose putting transition on the summit agenda. But Cop 30's presidency has pledged to present a roadmap in Turkey. The ball is rolling, Osornio said, and conversations at Santa Marta and future phase-out conferences "will continue to push the issue of fossil fuels and will undoubtedly have an impact within the [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change]". Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
France's fossil fuel roadmap a key step: think tanks
France's fossil fuel roadmap a key step: think tanks
Edinburgh, 29 April (Argus) — France's roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, which combines energy policies and climate targets in one document, is an important step, even though no new goals were announced, energy and climate think tanks said today. France released the roadmap yesterday, during the first conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, ongoing in Santa Marta, Colombia. The plan matches France's climate goals with its energy policies in one document, including its national low carbon strategy and its new electrification plan set out in April . It reiterates the country's goal to move from a share of around 60pc fossil fuels in final energy consumption in 2023 to 40pc in 2030 and 30pc in 2035, to reach net zero emissions in 2050. The government plans to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and natural gas by 2050, under its national low carbon strategy and its roadmap. "France is one of the few countries in the world to have such a precise schedule for a gradual exit from fossil fuels," the French environment ministry said. The French roadmap aims to inspire partner countries on long-term planning, it said. France's last two remaining coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close or be converted by next year. The roadmap also states that over 95pc of fossil fuels burned in the country are imported. France eyes a 50pc reduction in gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared with 1990, to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Although the country did not announce new goals, the roadmap sends an important signal, think-tank International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) energy policy advisor Natalie Jones said. "Higher ambition and not solely repackaging existing policies would have been even better, but an explicit fossil fuel phase strategy, with timelines, is new and welcome," she said. She added that the framing of the roadmap in relation to UN Cop climate summits, the global stocktake and climate action is significant. The first global stocktake, agreed on in 2023 at Cop 28, called for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "Few countries tackle all fossil fuels together — this gives other countries a critical opportunity to follow suit, while fossil fuel-producing nations can also lay out plans to diversify their economies as global demand for fossil fuels wanes in the decades ahead," said global research organisation WRI director of international climate action David Waskow. Asked about whether other EU countries could release fossil fuel transition roadmaps in the future, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra yesterday said that whether roadmaps are "specifically about phasing out fossil fuels… is secondary to impact". He reiterated the EU's goals — net zero emissions by 2050 and a 55pc reduction for 2030, from 1990 levels — pointing out that the wording is about reducing emissions rather than specifically phasing out fossil fuels. The "reality is… the same, you cannot be at 90pc [of emission cuts] in 2040 if you will not radically phase out fossil fuels", Hoekstra said. The EU updated its climate law earlier this year to add a 90pc GHG reduction by 2040, from 1990 levels, although up to 5pc of the target can be met using international carbon credits. Fossil fuel producer Colombia also presented a draft fossil fuel transition roadmap this week, developed with researchers, and designed to act as a potential standard for other countries to use. It aims to achieve a 90pc reduction in primary fossil fuel demand over 2026-50, and a 90pc cut in "whole energy system emissions" from 2015-50, while expanding access to energy. The plan pointed to the country's dependence on fossil fuels for revenues. Colombia exports oil and coal worth $25bn, against around $1bn in fossil fuel imports — mainly oil products, according to the roadmap. By Caroline Varin and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
No clear timeline for Brazil fossil fuel phase out
No clear timeline for Brazil fossil fuel phase out
Santa Marta, 28 April (Argus) — Brazil has no set timeline to publish its roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, the environment ministry's secretary for climate change Aloisio de Melo told Argus . Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 8 December asked the energy, environment and finance ministries to draft a resolution by February mapping out the phase-out of fossil fuels. That had followed Lula's previous calls to create an international plan to move away from fossil fuels during a leaders' summit only a few days before the UN Cop 30 climate summit held in November in Brazil. But the call did not make it to the summit's final decision despite backing´ from over 80 countries . Instead, the Cop 30 presidency pledged to create a roadmap on the issue outside of official negotiations. But the Brazilian ministries never published the resolution requested by Lula. Instead, the plan has been submitted to the national energy policy council, which will be responsible for developing it, de Melo said in the sidelines of the First Conference on the Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels , being held in Santa Marta, Colombia, from 24-29 April. The process to draft Brazil's roadmap has many moving parts and will "involve a lot of dialogue", de Melo said. "It's a process and we're not simplifying the approach," he said. "It's not just a matter of having big long-term goals, but of having a real trajectory with clear milestones, instruments, means and so on," which is "much more complex", he he said. One of the discussions surrounding the roadmap is its timeline, de Melo said, adding that the process "will take quite a bit of time" because it needs to have "a strong, solid institutional base that truly integrates with Brazil's energy planning". "It's not about having a document with some grand speeches and messages, but something that is actually consistent, solid and guiding over time and that transcends presidential administrations", he said. Phasing out fossil fuels could run counter to Brazil's plans of increasing crude production. It produces around 4mn b/d of crude , making it one of the 10 largest producers globally, according to its hydrocarbon regulator ANP. The country plans to expand crude output to 5.3mn b/d by 2030, according to energy research bureau Epe, hinging on new exploratory frontiers such as the southern Pelotas basin and the environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. But the production goals and the roadmap can coexist, de Melo said. The plan will focus on some decarbonization solutions that are "more or less ready and actionable" such as biofuels, he said. "But there are other solutions that are in the development and finalization phase." Additionally, Brazil's planned production growth will not take place in the short term, he said. So there is time to see how fossil fuels, mainly for transportation, will be used in a cleaner energy matrix over time. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Washington still aiming for 2027 GHG market link
Washington still aiming for 2027 GHG market link
Houston, 22 April (Argus) — Washington state is still eyeing 2027 for when it could join the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) carbon market, despite numerous regulatory and political hurdles, the state's Department of Ecology said on Wednesday. Ecology estimates its cap-and-invest program could join the WCI before the state's 1 November 2027 deadline for regulated participants to cover their outstanding emissions for 2023-26, the agency said at a public hearing on the recent draft linkage agreement . Current WCI partners California and Quebec are working to amend their respective program regulations this year. Both have indicated they prefer to finish their work first before fully turning their attention to linkage with Washington. But that does not mean that regulators from California, Quebec and Washington are not also advancing their required steps for linkage in parallel to any regulatory changes. "We expect we could complete the linkage agreement in 2026 and link in 2027, and this is including discussions with California and Quebec," Ecology senior planner for linkage Stephanie Potts said. Quebec's link with the California cap-and-trade program took more than a year to finalize, after work started in 2014, while the process with former WCI member Ontario took just months before it joined at the start of 2018. Ecology must also finish its current rulemaking to align the state's program with the WCI, with a final proposal expected in spring and adoption in summer. The agency must also finalize the required environmental justice assessment (EJA), Climate Commitment Act linkage criteria findings and then formally decide to link. California and Quebec will also need to amend their regulations to accept Washington Carbon Allowances (WCAs). California also requires a linkage report and findings from the governor's office to evaluate the stringency of Washington's cap-and-invest program. One new area of consideration is the shared electricity market between Washington and California. Both states need to align their coverage for electric power entities and their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ensuring neither has an advantage over the other, Potts said. Washington is working on regulations for imported electricity in its program as part of its linkage-related rulemaking. Quebec remains a point of uncertainty in the process. The province's environment ministry again delayed publishing its draft amendments earlier this month, while the new premier, Christine Frechette of Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), forms her government. Quebec is also holding a general election on 5 October, which looks likely to change political leadership in the province. A Leger-Quebecor poll of roughly 1,000 eligible voters over 17-20 April shows Parti Quebecois at 31pc of support, with CAQ trailing in third place at 17pc. California will also hold its election on 3 November to replace governor Gavin Newsom (D), who is ending his final term this year. "Changes in government have not inhibited staff from continuing to work together on this process, to share information and move the process forward," Potts said. Ecology will hold another public hearing on its draft linkage agreement on 22 April and is accepting public comment through 6 May. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.