Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
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News
Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN
Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN
Edinburgh, 4 December (Argus) — Qatar has pledged to reduce its emissions by 42mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2040 from a 2019 baseline, with the oil and gas sector "at the forefront of national mitigation efforts". Qatar does not provide its total greenhouse emissions for 2019, but said its climate plan encompasses CO2, methane and nitrous oxide gases. It covers the energy sector — oil and gas, power and water — construction and industry, transport, waste and agriculture, forestry and other land use. Parties to the Paris Agreement were required to submit climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), for 2035 to the UN climate body UNFCCC this year. Qatar had previously targeted emission reductions of 25pc, or 37mn CO2e, by 2030, compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. BAU scenarios typically assume emissions based on current policies, leaving room for potential increases. The country's emission cuts in its oil and gas sector will rely on "deploying cleaner fossil fuel technologies, developing engineered sinks to store emissions, diversifying the energy mix, and driving operational excellence across existing facilities and infrastructure", according to its climate plan. Qatar is the world's largest LNG producer, with a production capacity of 77mn t/yr, according to QatarEnergy, and its economy is heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues. The country's climate plan highlights the country's vulnerability to response measures to mitigate climate change, resulting from its economy's reliance on hydrocarbons. "Qatar is actively working to reduce the socio-economic effects of global climate action," the plan said, adding that it seeks to balance climate goals with national sustainable development. "Despite many efforts and considering its role as a leading producer and exporter of natural gas, Qatar remains significantly vulnerable to climate response measures," it said. Qatar is part of the Arab Group, a negotiating group in UNFCCC climate talks, which is seeking to focus on cutting emissions from fossil fuels, rather than hydrocarbon production and consumption, through increased adoption of carbon capture technologies. The country said it plays "a pivotal role" in supporting other countries' targets by "reliably supplying them with a cleaner alternative to coal and oil and providing a critical backup for intermittent renewables". Qatar's climate plan sees the secure and affordable supply of lower-carbon energy as well as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the management of emissions of energy production as the focus to pursue sustainable development and climate action. The country considers itself to be among the leaders in CCS with its Ras Laffan project, and aims to capture 11mn t/yr of CO2 by 2035. Engineering firm Samsung C&T was recently awarded a contract to build a 4.1mn t/yr CO2 facility to process and store emissions from Qatar's LNG liquefaction plants. Qatar, in its climate plan, highlighted the country's water supply vulnerability to temperature increases and heat. The power and water sector accounts for a large share of the country's emissions. Water scarcity is also responsible for increasing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Bahrain through desalination, although its energy sector remains the main source of emissions, according to the country's new climate plan. The country is heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy and revenues, while "limited land availability and competing land-use demands constrain large-scale deployment" for the development of solar energy. Rising demand over the peak summer months this year meant that Bahrain had to import LNG for the first time since commissioning its 800mn ft³/d onshore LNG receiving and regasification terminal in 2020. But it is looking at renewables options and is in talks with Saudi Arabia for a link to a large-scale solar facility. Bahrain said that response measures to climate change "may lead to economic losses that, in turn, hinder Bahrain's ability to pursue effective climate action and achieve broader sustainable development objectives." By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Cop 30 launchpad for clean cooking revolution: CCA
Q&A: Cop 30 launchpad for clean cooking revolution: CCA
London, 2 December (Argus) — The UN's Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil, last month pushed clean cooking in lower-income countries higher up the global agenda as part of a just energy transition. US-based non-profit the Clean Cooking Alliance (CCA), working alongside the likes of the IEA and the World Liquid Gas Association, has played a central role in bringing attention to the issue and helping to tackle the financing and policy barriers faced in shifting to cleaner fuels, particularly LPG. Argus' Waldemar Jaszczyk spoke with CCA chief of staff and chief external affairs officer Jillene Belopolsky about what the event delivered and what still needs to happen: What were your overall impressions of Cop 30? Cop 30 was a very exciting and exhilarating experience as always, especially because it made it clear that clean cooking has moved from the margins to the mainstream of climate conversations. We now see it explicitly linked to energy access, nature, food systems and gender equality and not treated as a niche issue. The big challenge remains turning that visibility into scale of finance and delivery capacity that countries actually need to implement their ambitious targets. How has clean cooking become more visible at the summit? Cop 25 had one session on clean cooking on the last day in a backroom. But in the past few years, we've seen high-level multi-stakeholder events and commitments. This momentum has been building owing to the advocacy and engagement of organisations as they, like CCA, are really driving awareness through global platforms. The G20 and G7 included an explicit commitment to clean cooking this year. The IEA summit on clean cooking in Africa last year mobilised $2bn worth of pledges. African governments have elevated clean cooking in their energy and climate plans. Regional bodies such as the Africa Energy Commission are driving a more co-ordinated approach. At Cop 30, we had governments, development finance institutions and firms debating not whether to act but how to scale faster, mobilise finance and integrate clean cooking into just energy transition strategies. We also saw the launch of the platform for clean cooking in schools (see p2). Was clean cooking adequately included in climate planning in the past? In the early years, clean cooking was definitely under-represented in climate planning, and there were many other larger-scale issues driving the agenda. But this has absolutely improved and we have seen steadily increasing recognition of cooking as a critical climate solution. As of July, 74pc of low and middle-income countries include household energy or explicit clean cooking measures in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). That is up from about two-thirds of that number before Cop 26. But there's still a gap between what is written on paper and the level of targets for finance and implementation required to close that gap by 2030. And that's why the CCA-led clean cooking and climate consortium has been providing technical and practical guidance to governments intending to use clean cooking interventions to achieve climate goals as part of their NDC targets or to create tradeable assets under an Article 6 framework. How is LPG's role as a clean cooking fuel in climate discussions evolving? The conversation is more open and evidence-based. CCA-sponsored research helped shift the tone by showing that the benefits of transitioning to LPG are bigger and more immediate than assumed. That evidence is landing well with policy makers, donors and investors. We're also seeing a more nuanced discussion emerge. Countries are looking at LPG, electricity and biofuels as complementary pathways rather than competing narratives. Analysis such as the IEA's roadmap show that in the least costly pathway, LPG provides access for more than 60pc of people that require access. It does not mean that LPG is the answer everywhere or forever. But there is a growing acceptance that when used efficiently and paired with a long-term credible transition, it can play a vital near-term role. Has the summit delivered in terms of funding for clean cooking? The IEA roadmap estimates that universal clean cooking access in Africa will require roughly $37bn of total investment between now and 2040, equivalent to $2bn/yr. The IEA's summit in 2024 mobilised $2.2bn in commitments, of which about $470mn has already been dispersed, which is a really meaningful step but still only a fraction of what's required. It's important to highlight that there is very strong policy momentum. Since the IEA's summit, more than 70pc of the population without access to clean cooking live in countries that have strengthened clean cooking policy frameworks. Cop creates a lot of agreements and investment vehicles, and there is an opportunity to leverage this finance for clean cooking. Cop can help direct resources toward more integrated, holistic approaches. What barriers are preventing this level of investment being reached? Limited bankable project pipelines, gaps in government delivery capacity, policy and tariff uncertainty and inconsistent carbon market rules. Investors also cite currency risk affordability and fuel price volatility. Cop 30 helped advance some of these conversations, particularly around the high-integrity carbon markets, stronger clean cooking signals, NDCs and alignment with larger nature and food security agendas. But the progress does not hinge on Cop alone. CCA and our partners have been working to address some of these bottlenecks. We're supporting governments through national clean cooking delivery units. We're improving the data and planning tools, strengthening standards and carbon methodology and helping to structure real project pipelines that can attract capital. While Cop adds that visibility and momentum, this core work of derisking markets and building investable opportunities happens every day across countries. How can the LPG sector tap into carbon credits to become more affordable? Carbon finance is one of the most immediate and promising ways to overcome affordability barriers. It can help reduce upfront costs such as cylinders, connections and efficient LPG stoves and can provide targeted subsidies to help reach the poorest households — as long as credits are generated through high-integrity projects. Initiatives such as the CCA-led consortium and emerging tools such as the clear carbon methodology are designed to ensure that any LPG-related carbon projects are transparent, conservative in their claims and aligned with NDCs rather than being used as a licence to delay decarbonisation. We have worked hard to ensure this carbon methodology will be adopted by the UNFCCC and the voluntary standards bodies. It will be a game changer for the sector if done right. If Cop 30 fails to leverage the necessary financing for clean cooking, what is the CCA's plan to maintain momentum into 2026? We have never expected a single summit to close the finance gap. We definitely can't let the momentum fade. That's why our focus after Cop 30 is very practical. We are working to turn commitments into capital, turn pilots into portfolios of projects and help governments build the delivery systems that make investment viable. For us, that means expanding our clean cooking delivery units, supporting countries to sharpen clean cooking in their NDCs and investment plans and working closely with investors to structure high-integrity projects and affordable business models. Cop 30 is not the finish line, it's a launchpad. Share of people gaining access to clean cooking by 2040 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 30 president eyes fossil roadmap draft by April
Cop 30 president eyes fossil roadmap draft by April
Sao Paulo, 1 December (Argus) — The first draft of a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels could be ready by a global summit on the topic in Colombia in April, according to UN Cop 30 climate summit president Andrea Correa do Lago, who plans to ask Opec, the Paris-based IEA and other groups to contribute. The creation of a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels became a central topic at Cop 30, held last month in Brazil's north, after Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for one during a leaders' summit days before Cop 30 began. The issue received backing from just over 80 countries but was ultimately left out of any final texts . At the closing of the summit, the Brazilian presidency promised to deliver a roadmap by the start of Cop 31 — which will be held in Turkey next year — but the work will be done outside of official negotiations. "We will probably have a lot done before the Colombia meeting", Correa do Lago said in a televised interview on 28 November. Colombia and the Netherlands announced before Cop 30 that they would co-host an international conference on the just transition away from fossil fuels on 28-29 April, and Correa do Lago said that the work on the roadmap would benefit from the event. The Cop 30 presidency will create a working group that will be in contact with international energy agencies already looking into the topic, he added, "because energy is a delicate issue from a geopolitical and economic point of view." Correa do Lago plans to tap the IEA, Opec, the International Renewable Energy Agency, the Global Biofuels Alliance and the International Solar Alliance to help the working group, among others. "We want to put together something that brings their work together, because you already have many people working on this, but not as a unified whole as we intend to do," he said. The presidency wants to "spark a debate on the topic in a very different way than it has been handled so far", he said. Fossil fuel producers such as Russia, India and Saudi Arabia pushed back heavily on including a roadmap in Cop 30 texts, while some developing countries still looking to rely on their oil resources, such as Mexico and Guyana, Kenya and Sierra Leone, supported the idea of a roadmap, as long as it takes into account national circumstances and it promotes in a just, equitable and orderly transition. Instead of the roadmap, Cop 30 parties agreed on the launch of a "global implementation accelerator ", and the "Belem Mission to 1.5". These voluntary initiatives are aimed at "enabling ambition and implementation" of countries' climate plans and at keeping the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature rise limit within reach. This refers to the more ambitious goal of the Paris accord — to hold the global temperature increase to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to no more than 1.5°C. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LatAm finds more common ground at Cop
LatAm finds more common ground at Cop
Sao Paulo, 26 November (Argus) — Latin American countries at the UN Cop 30 climate summit showed more unity than in previous years, potentially setting the region up for more progress in future climate discussions, delegates said. Countries often negotiate as blocs during Cop summits, but that has not always been the case for Latin America. "Definitely, Africa and other blocs have been much more coordinated [at Cops] in the past and Latin America has been more divided," Guatemala's vice-minister of natural resources and climate change Edwin Castellanos said. But Latin American nations held two preparatory meetings prior to Cop 30 — in Mexico and Peru — which helped boost collaboration, he added. Latin American countries are finding more points in common than before, Chile's environment minister Maisa Rojas said. "Our countries are paying the same price for climate change and biodiversity losses," she said. So seeking to increase funding for adaptation, or adapting to climate change as possible, has united them, she added. The region's countries joined in a call for "clear, measurable, and appropriate indicators" to evaluate progress toward the global adaptation goal, Costa Rica's foreign affairs ministry Giovanna Stark said. The countries would not leave the summit, held in Belem, Brazil, without adaptation indicators, Uruguay's environment minister Edgardo Silva said. Cop 30 did end with 59 adaptation indicators — down from earlier plans for 100 — to help measure progress in implementing the global goal on adaptation. But there are still pending issues, especially regarding financing and on how to turn these indicators into binding commitments. Panama's special envoy for climate change Juan Carlos Gomez also noticed greater unity among Latin American countries, citing specific collaborations with Uruguay, the Dominican Republic and Mexico. A goal for the next two years is to advance common Latin American priorities so that the bloc "can once and for all have a more united voice" at climate summits, he said. But there are still some points of division, especially "political visions on how to achieve solutions", Castellanos said. Colombia pushes fossil fuel shift Colombia's stance to try to transition away from fossil fuels continued at Cop 30, as President Gustavo Petro has been a constant voice on the topic. At this Cop, Colombia spearheaded an initiative calling for a global alliance to accelerate the move away from fossil fuels that over 80 countries backed. Colombia's biggest win this time was having oil producing countries in Latin America — such as Guyana and Mexico — join in the declaration, Ana Carolina Espinosa, senior director at the Natural Resources Governance Institute said. The phase-out "is not only necessary but inevitable", Colombia's environment minister Irena Velez-Torres said. The transition away from fossil fuels became one of the main topics at Cop 30 from the beginning. During a leaders' climate summit only days before Cop 30, the president of Brazil — also a major oil producer — Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called on world leaders to draw a roadmap to "overcome dependence on fossil fuels". Although the summit ended without a deal on the matter, the Cop 30 presidency promised to oversee the creation of a roadmap. Colombia is organizing talks on it for April. But Colombia's presidential elections in May-June are looming over the topic, Espinosa said. Although Colombia has been advocating for the phase out of fossil fuels since before Petro, administrations have failed to draw out concrete, far-reaching public policies on the matter, she added. Additionally, Colombia — which heavily relies on natural gas — is facing a gas deficit , which has forced it to import gas this year. And Petro's low approval ratings leaves a window for his opposition to call for the resumption of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and exploration contracts, Espinosa said. Fewer than 35pc of voters approve of Petro's presidency, according to an August poll conducted by AltlasIntel and Bloomberg. By Lucas Parolin Colombia's oil production '000 b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Houston, 13 November (Argus) — Mexico's updated climate pledge sets its most ambitious emissions target, but the plan sits in sharp contrast to the government's push to increase crude processing and fuel output at state-owned Pemex's refinery system. Mexico submitted its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) ahead of this month's UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, committing for the first time to an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions of 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035, or 332–363mn t CO2e with international support. The target represents a cut of more than 50pc from a business-as-usual trajectory, according to the environment ministry, and aligns with Mexico's long-term commitment to reach net zero by 2050. But while Mexico promises steep emissions reductions, it is simultaneously doubling down on a fossil-heavy industrial strategy centered on reviving its aging refining system, boosting domestic output of gasoline and diesel and limiting private-sector participation across the downstream chain. Mexico's refineries — most of which regularly run at below 50–60pc of capacity — remain among Mexico's largest stationary emitters, with high rates of flaring, residual fuel oil production and energy inefficiency. The government has also poured billions of dollars into the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and continues to prioritize increasing crude throughput at the legacy system, even as maintenance shortfalls, outages and unplanned shutdowns remain common. Pemex processed about 950,000 b/d of crude across its seven domestic refineries in September, up by 8pc from a year prior and 57pc higher than the 604,300 b/d processed in September 2018, before former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office. Mexico's refining-heavy strategy took shape under Lopez Obrador, who made fuel self-sufficiency the centerpiece of his administration after years of under-investment and declining output at Pemex's refining system. His government moved away from the 2014 energy reform and proposed constitutional changes that would free Pemex from its obligation to operate as a "productive state company." The shift enabled greater political influence over Pemex's operations and reinforced a nationalistic focus on refining, even as the company posted financial losses and saw its crude output fall to 40-year lows. President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has continued that trajectory. Backed by a congressional supermajority that allows her party to advance Lopez Obrador's reforms, Sheinbaum has maintained the emphasis on fuel self-sufficiency and continued to expand Pemex's role through increased state support. Mexico's NDC frames climate policy as compatible with economic development, job creation and "just transition" principles. But the plan is still vague on specific mitigation actions for the refining sector. "Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico. Meanwhile, the government maintains policies and proposed reforms that favor Pemex and state utility CFE over private-sector companies, limiting private investment in cleaner fuels and renewable electricity. The lack of incentives for low-carbon technologies, combined with an aggressive push to increase domestic production of gasoline and diesel, contradicts the technical requirements implied by the emissions cap, according to market sources. The contradiction becomes more pronounced as Mexico prepares for the Cop 30 negotiations. Mexico, which now joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs, will likely face scrutiny over how its energy agenda fits within its climate ambitions. For now, the gap between Mexico's stated targets and its refining-focused policy framework remains wide. Without clear measures to reduce emissions from Pemex's refining system, expand low-carbon fuels and introduce stronger regulatory incentives, the new NDC risks becoming another aspirational document. Pemex's crude throughput '000b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Brazil's renewable resources, sound economy and supportive policies could make it a powerful advocate for green H2, writes Pamela Machado Paris, 4 November (Argus) — The Cop 30 UN climate summit kicks off in a few days in Brazil against a backdrop of slowing global energy transition momentum and outright hostility from US president Donald Trump's administration to policies aimed at tackling climate change. Hydrogen has not been immune to these trends. Recent Cop summits have given the industry a platform to showcase its decarbonisation potential, but hydrogen is expected to receive a more modest hearing when delegates gather in Belem, reflecting the more downbeat global mood and the industry's slow development. This year has seen nothing like the level of final investment decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen projects that was anticipated at the start of 2025, as a combination of familiar issues — policy uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks and difficulties securing offtake agreements — have hindered progress for many schemes. The hydrogen sector is going through an "era of maturation and is moving from ambition to delivery — a transition similar to what solar, wind and battery industries have gone through as well", says Ivana Jemelkova, chief executive with lobby group the Hydrogen Council. This phase is "inevitably paired with attrition", Jemelkova tells Argus, with only projects demonstrating "the strongest business cases" able to line up enough financing and support to move forward. But Cop still offers an opportunity, she says — the "perfect place to advance practical solutions" to address challenges with mechanisms such as contracts-for-difference (CfD), national mandates and to set up "alliances to aggregate demand in sectors like fertilisers". Countries with renewable power potential — particularly emerging economies — have also used recent Cop summits to unveil clean hydrogen production ambitions, but momentum has slowed this year in regions such as Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa as companies have scaled back production goals and import ambitions . Emerging talent This is another area where Cop offers a chance for revival, Jemelkova argues. "As of 2025, 65 ... countries have a hydrogen strategy, of which 29 are emerging economies," she says. "This year's update of nationally determined contributions provides an opportunity to set detailed hydrogen targets." So far, there have been few signs that hydrogen will play a greater role in countries' plans, however, and the focus might lie elsewhere, given the sector's slower-than-expected progress. Brazil has used its presidency to promote hydrogen for clean industrialisation. It has announced several funding schemes, partnering with international bodies, including UN industrial development organisation Unido and the Green Climate Fund over the last year. But these initiatives have yet to yield any FIDs. International non-profit industry decarbonisation programme Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA) chose Brazil as its first focus country because it combined government ambition, economic fundamentals and a promising project pipeline. ITA is working with 15 projects in Brazil and had hoped that some of these would reach FID ahead of the summit, but none is now expected this year. While projects reaching FID "would be a powerful symbolic accomplishment, if they cannot quite do so in time for the event, it is not a fundamental cause for concern", ITA says, as the programme's goal "is not just about individual FIDs", but also about overcoming systemic obstacles, such as high financing costs. Brazil's broader agenda as Cop president has included a pledge for nations to increase production and adoption of sustainable fuels, which seems likely to emphasise biofuels more than hydrogen-based alternatives. But planned Cop talks on increasing renewable power generation and integrating carbon markets into a global system should promote the uptake of hydrogen and derivatives, even if indirectly. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 30 success hinges on GHG cuts, finance response
Cop 30 success hinges on GHG cuts, finance response
Edinburgh, 3 November (Argus) — The UN Cop 30 climate summit's success will depend on how Paris agreement parties close huge gaps between ambitions and actions for cutting emissions and bolstering finance. But the shape that this response should take is still unclear. Leaders are heading to Cop 30 on 6 November in Belem, Brazil, with the responsibility of putting the world on track to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, 10 years after it was signed. Brazil, which holds the summit presidency this year, wants to see concrete signals from parties on implementation. New nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — climate plans — due to be submitted to the UN by Cop 30 are a clear measure of progress. But only around 65 countries, out of just under 200, had submitted new plans and targets to 2035 by the end of October. More, including India, South Korea and Mexico are working on it. If implemented, plans revealed to the end of last month — which include targets from China and the EU, but not their NDCs — could contribute to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 10pc by 2035, compared with 2019 levels, according to the UN. China released its NDC on 3 November. The reductions only account for around 10pc of what is needed to put the world on track to stick to the 1.5°C temperature limit by 2035, non-profit World Resources Institute (WRI) says. "It's now for Cop 30 and for the world to respond and show how we are going to speed up," UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. The Brazil presidency intends to help parties rise to the challenge, armed with the historic global stocktake (GST) agreement that countries agreed at Cop 28 in Dubai two years ago and its action agenda . But, unlike the two last Cops, which tackled big headline issues — the GST in Dubai, where the call to transition away from fossil fuels was made, and the new international public finance goal in Baku — Belem will have to seek progress on myriad topics, with key ones outside of its official scope. The NDCs, although central to the negotiations, do not figure on the Cop agenda, and parties continue to disagree on how they should react to the current lack of ambition. The same goes for unilateral trade measures and the much-awaited "Baku to Belem roadmap" aiming to scale up finance to developing countries to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2035 — a compromise reached after developing nations, including India, decried the Baku outcome . Fights over these topics could delay or even derail other negotiations. The presidency will have to support parties with advancing adaptation — a key Cop 30 mandate — and loss and damage talks, and by pursuing work on Cop's just transition programme and implementation of the GST, where mitigation topics, most critically transitioning from fossil fuels , are likely to prove contentious again. Paris match "We can't have one response to the implementation and ambition gap. It needs to be a series of responses because it has to work not only for different actors, different geographies, different communities, but also for different economic sectors", Cop 30 strategy chief Tulio Andrade said. The Cop presidency wants stakeholders to see the "complex response" as a "bundle of responses" coming from the negotiations, but also the action agenda and initiatives it has launched and partnerships, including with scientists. But these will have to materialise in an increasingly challenging geopolitical context, and while US president Donald Trump, who took his country out of the Paris agreement in January, is dialling up anti-climate opposition in multilateral forums . It is unclear which role the US, which did not send a delegation to the Bonn climate talks in June, will play in Brazil, but its influence will be felt. The US is the world's second largest GHG emitter after China. "Our main priority will be to have Cop 30 sending a very strong signal in support of multilateralism and the 10-year anniversary of the Paris agreement. But we know it's not the best moment [geopolitically]," Andrade says. In terms of concrete deliverables, he says, "it is an outcome that preserves and strengthens the legacy of what we have achieved so far and that accelerates implementation in response to urgency". By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU still wants to lead at UN climate talks
EU still wants to lead at UN climate talks
Brussels, 27 October (Argus) — The EU is seeking to "inject" political momentum at the upcoming UN Cop 30 climate summit. That probably means promising a CO2 emissions reduction of up to 72.5pc by 2035, against a 1990 baseline. But, just a few weeks ahead of the climate talks in Belem, Brazil, the EU has still to formally agree on anything more than a statement of intent regarding its nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan. The bloc's climate credibility is "rock solid" says EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, a former centre-right Dutch foreign and finance minister. He claims a mandate to negotiate at Cop 30. "I'm positive that we will manage to have the 2035 target also formally before we walk into Belem," Hoekstra says. He can boast latest formal figures indicating that the EU has cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37pc since 1990, despite a 68pc rise in its GDP. The EU also only accounts for 6pc of global emissions. In the second quarter of 2025, 54pc of the EU's net power generation came from renewables. And EU environment ministers could, on 4 November, still formally give a negotiating mandate to Hoekstra for the NDC, just days ahead of talks in Brazil on 10-21 November. The ministers could even agree to a joint position on the bloc's 2040 GHG reduction target. The NDC, or 2035 target, could have been straightforward maths, with an indicative GHG reduction touted of 72.5pc — midway between a 90pc reduction by 2040 and a 55pc reduction by 2030. Slovakia, though, insisted on a lower target, eroding the target cut to 66.25pc. Another unhappy signal is the EU leaders' meeting on 23-24 October, which did not mention the commission's July proposal for a net domestic GHG cut of 90pc by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. No mention either is made of the NDC. In vague language, EU leaders merely underline the importance of contributing to the global emission reduction effort in a way that is both "ambitious and cost-efficient", also with an adequate level of "high-quality" international credits. While wavering on 2035 and 2040 climate targets, the bloc is beefing up its carbon border adjustment mechanism to prevent energy intensive industries relocating outside the bloc. That means including more sectors, supporting EU exporters and preventing resource shuffling by others selling greener products to the EU and more carbon-intensive goods domestically. "We're not asking anything from anyone [that] we're not asking from ourselves," Hoekstra tells Argus . Pointing fingers If in doubt about itself, the EU can always point at what others are not doing. It is a major blow that the US has "checked out", Hoekstra says. "Part of [climate] leadership is also to articulate what we expect of others," he adds, pointing out the lack of ambition from other major emitters, notably China. "This Cop is extremely tricky. We know what it means when a US president leaves the Paris agreement," Austrian MEP and Cop 30 delegate Lena Schilling tells Argus . "It should have been the moment the EU says: ‘we will commit to our climate ambition'." While welcoming a non-binding parliamentary resolution on 23 October that called for a 72.5pc GHG cut by 2035 and an end to fossil fuel subsidies, Schilling references a string of legal changes weakening the EU's Green Deal. That includes a recent agreement to delete obligatory climate neutrality plans for large firms under its corporate sustainability due diligence directive. The NDC, or 2035 target will be decided solely by EU states. But the 2040 target also needs to be agreed with the European parliament. The 90pc target is not acceptable right now for EU states and parliament, Bulgarian centre-right EPP member Radan Kanev tells Argus , proposing instead a target of 78pc, dependent on whether major emitters including China and India deliver on their pledges. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Country focus
California balks at prospect of offshore leasing
California balks at prospect of offshore leasing
Washington, 11 November (Argus) — California governor Gavin Newsom (D) is pushing back against the possibility of a federal plan that would auction new drilling rights off the state's coast for the first time since 1984. President Donald Trump's administration is preparing to release a "draft proposed program" to guide offshore oil and gas leasing over the next five years. By law, the plan must include twice-a-year lease sales in the US Gulf of Mexico and at least six lease sales in Alaska's Cook Inlet by 2032. The administration is widely expected to propose new leasing in other areas. Newsom said on Tuesday he would oppose any efforts to expand leasing off California. "Dead on arrival," Newsom said in a social media post on Tuesday. Trump had already tried to allow oil and gas lease sales off California and other coastal US states during his first term, but he abandoned the idea when it became politically toxic in states key to his re-election bid. Trump could try again through a new five-year offshore leasing plan, which will be subject to public comment before it could be finalized next year. The US Interior Department, which retained staff to work on the plan during the government shutdown, did not respond to a request for comment. Oil industry groups have supported restarting offshore leasing off the western US, "particularly in southern California" where there are energy resources and existing offshore infrastructure, according to a comment letter filed this summer. But industry officials recognize that any drilling off California, which is already fighting efforts to restart production from existing offshore facilities, would face significant obstacles. "Political resistance to further production has had a chilling effect on industry interest in the area," the American Petroleum Institute and other industry groups wrote in a comment letter on 16 June. "Should the political climate reverse, the opportunity for further development exists." California would have limited options to block oil and gas leasing in federal waters off the state. But it could impose regulations that make offshore resources hard to develop, such as by constraining onshore pipelines and other needed infrastructure. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate
Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate
Houston, 10 November (Argus) — California is "doubling down" on its climate policies and goals to mitigate the impact of policy shifts by US president Donald Trump, California state senator Josh Becker (D) said at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil. Becker indicated the state is still moving forward on its response to climate change, despite ongoing opposition from the federal government, including to the state's ability to regulate vehicle emissions, in a discussion on Monday around California's climate leadership under the Trump administration. Becker touted the continued emissions reductions for California's economy, which fell 3pc to 360.4mn metric tonnes (t) in 2023 from the prior year, primarily around transportation, the state's largest emitting sector, according to state data released last week. But California is still looking to keep momentum going, including reducing vehicle emissions after the Trump administration signed three congressional resolutions earlier this year to repeal EPA waivers for the state's own tailpipe CO2 rules. "Even though they took away our waiver to regulate transportation, we are now working with our air resources board to come up with legislation for next year to figure out a way around that," Becker said. The EPA previously granted a waiver allowing California to ban gas-powered vehicle sales by model year 2035, known as Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), along with mandates for zero-emission truck sales and more-stringent nitrogen oxide emission standards during former-president Joe Biden's administration. California, as part of a state coalition, is in ongoing legal disputes with the federal government and automotive manufacturers over the removal of its tailpipe waivers. But while the courts deliberate, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is weighing measures the state could take to keep the transition away from fossil fuel-based vehicles on track. CARB plans to consider adopting emergency regulations that would allow it to use tailpipe regulations built on previous federal waivers in a hearing later this month. California has had some climate successes this year despite federal headwinds, including the state legislature's extension in September of its "cap-and-invest" program to 2045. The program, which was previously set to end in 2030, will bring in roughly $5bn/yr that California can use for investments in programs and policies targeting emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience, Becker said. Becker held up the growing portfolio of clean electricity within the state, now 70pc from zero-emission sources, and the CARB's development of corporate climate disclosures as part of the state's ongoing climate policy efforts. California is seeking a 40pc reduction in emissions, compared to 1990 levels, statewide by 2030, and net-zero emissions in 2045. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada set to scrap oil and gas emissions cap
Canada set to scrap oil and gas emissions cap
Calgary, 4 November (Argus) — Canada is prepared to scrap its planned oil and gas emissions cap provided other technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) grow "at scale", the government said today. A proposed cap-and-trade system to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its oil and gas sector by 35pc compared to 2019 levels is likely to be abandoned, according to the federal government's 2025 budget released on Tuesday. The budget unveiled by finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne in the House of Commons comes against a backdrop of significant uncertainty for the country. A lagging economy and punitive tariffs from the US have prompted Canadian politicians to rethink the country's industrial policy, including climate initiatives that the oil and gas sector says stifles investment. The oil and gas emissions cap would "no longer be required as it would have marginal value in reducing emissions" if there are effective carbon markets, enhanced oil and gas methane regulations and deployment at scale of technologies such as CCS, according to the budget. But as it stands, producers of oil, natural gas and liquefied natural gas will need to meet the emissions cap target by 2030-32, following a four-year phase-in from 2026-29. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario provincial governments have long opposed the proposal, with Alberta premier Danielle Smith arguing that it would have capped production in the province. Smith said in 2024 that the province would pursue a constitutional challenge against the federal cap in its provincial court. The sector produces the lion's share of Canada's emissions, at 208mn metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023, according to the latest federal data available. If built, Pathways Alliances' C$16.5bn ($12bn) CCS project could sock away up to 22mn t/yr of CO2 by 2030 and make a meaningful step in offsetting greenhouse gas emissions by Canada's oil and gas sector. Prime minister Mark Carney has said decarbonizing Canadian oil — found mostly from Alberta — is a key component in getting another crude pipeline approved to the Pacific coast. But an existing tanker ban on the northwest coast of British Columbia represents yet another impediment for any company interested in building such a pipeline. The government also plans to update the controversial greenwashing law that came into effect in June 2024, according to Tuesday's budget. Oil and gas companies said the law is both vague, invites "meritless litigation" and prohibits discussion on their climate-related investments and plans. Carney's Liberal party hold a minority in the house — 169 of 343 seats — and will need support of other parties to pass the budget. By Brett Holmes and Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New Zealand announces ETS, climate law changes
New Zealand announces ETS, climate law changes
London, 4 November (Argus) — The New Zealand government announced on Tuesday draft changes to the emissions trading scheme (NZ ETS), including provisions that will help recognize carbon removal in the future, as well as changes to the climate change response act. Among the draft NZ ETS proposal are changes in how the government reviews companies' industrial allowance allocations, which is aimed at reducing barriers for firms to invest in decarbonization projects. The ETS settings decisions will become a biennial process going forward, instead of the current annual review, although this new rule will not affect the annual decision planned for 2026. The government is also removing a provision within the country's climate change act that requires NZ ETS unit volumes and price control regulations to accord with the nationally determined contributions under the UN's Paris Agreement on climate change. Changes to the operation of the ETS scheme include: adding the import of carbon dioxide in the NZ ETS; administrative changes to penalty repayment rules managed by the environmental protection authority; allowing flexibility for foresters to re-establish forests after significant disruptions such as severe weather events; and minor adjustments such as extending deadlines after major disruptions and allowing for discretion to waive ETS penalties in some instances. The government has also been "exploring opportunities to recognize and reward non-forestry removals" and is "progressing work" on releasing an assessment framework for carbon removals which will guide developers on the scientific evidence needed to gain removals credits and clarify the pathway for crediting new activities in the ETS. It is also working to amend the climate change law to add "carbon removal activities" as an activity that can be recognized under the NZ ETS — although this change would not outright grant recognition but rather pave the path for this happening in the future, it said. The government is also updating the guidance for the voluntary carbon markets in 2026 and stakeholders will be able to submit projects for assessment in the first half of 2026. The New Zealand government said on 4 November it was making these changes to "ensure" the climate change law "is working well and as intended." These follow the completion of a review earlier this year. It delayed the due date for government organizations to become carbon neutral to 2050, from 2025 which was "too soon" to meet this target. While buying offset credits could have been an alternative to achieve this, there are not enough such credits in the local market available to meet such demand, it said. The Climate Change Commission will no longer be required to advise the government on emissions reduction plans (ERPs), although the commission will continue to provide advice on the five-yearly emissions budgets and the annual emissions reduction monitoring report — with the latter's timing brought forward to April, to align it with the timing of the annual release of emissions projections. The new rules will also allow more flexibility on the process for amending or replacing ERPs and the related policies and strategies, by removing the requirement to consult on such changes. The amendment bill to the climate change act will be submitted in 2026, although the change to remove the requirement for ETS settings to accord with NDCs will be adopted by the end of the current year, the government said. A separate amendment bill will also be introduced and adopted before the end of 2025 to bring recently announced updates to the 2050 biogenic methane target into law, it said. By Erisa Senerdem Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.