Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve.
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News
Fossils fuel firm climate levy difficult: EU commission
Fossils fuel firm climate levy difficult: EU commission
Brussels, 27 October (Argus) — Requiring fossil fuel companies to contribute to climate resilience measures is a "hugely complicated" conversation, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today, when presenting a climate resilience law that would require member states to draw up adaptation plans and assess climate risks by 31 December 2030. Hoekstra said there was a "clear case" for fossil fuel companies to contribute to the cost of climate resilience measures. "At the same time, it is complicated to then just, off the cuff, add something on top of the ETS," he said. The European Commission pointed to estimated economic losses from climate damage of €200bn ($220.5bn) over 2022-25, or around €50bn/yr. Officials estimate the cost of adapting Europe's infrastructure and economy to future climate conditions at about €70bn/yr. "The estimated return on investments in climate adaptation can reach more than 10 times their value in avoided loss and damage," the commission said. Loss and damage refers to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The commission pointed at "prolonged heatwaves and droughts" over the summer which drove some of Europe's biggest rivers to historically low water levels. This action is central for the EU's energy security because it will help authorities manage risks and safeguard energy supplies, EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said today. "We need to prepare our energy systems for climate impacts, ranging from low river levels that disrupt fuel transport and the functioning of power plants, to heatwaves that strain our electricity grids," he said. Low Rhine water levels have left fuel terminals in Germany short of diesel and HVO as barges cannot use the key waterway. Low Danube water levels also impaired shipments of commodities such as oil products , fertilizers or wheat and disrupted nuclear power generation capacity . Under the draft law, the commission would also have to present a strategic plan on climate resilience by 30 September 2028. The proposal is based on the assumption that existing global climate commitments will result in around 2°C of warming by 2050 and 3°C by 2100. Officials expect Europe to warm by 4-5°C over the same period. Hoekstra said that the 1.5°C Paris agreement temperature limit remains the EU's goal, but he added that it would be unwise not to prepare for other scenarios. The Paris accord seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. The Commission said it will "soon" present a European heatwave plan, a climate insurance alliance and a new European water initiative. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Netherlands pledges $500mn to Brazil's TFFF
Netherlands pledges $500mn to Brazil's TFFF
Sao Paulo, 27 October (Argus) — The Netherlands will allocate up to $500mn over a 10-year period to Brazil's Tropical Forest Forever Facility to help finance the fund in its mission to preserve tropical forests. "Forest conservation is essential for combating climate change and preserving biodiversity," the Dutch government said. "However, without a financial reward for maintaining tropical forests, it quickly becomes more attractive to cut down trees than to preserve them". TFFF — launched at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in 2025 — aims to preserve tropical global forests and help pay around 80 developing countries $4/hectare (ha) for preserved tropical forests. The goal is to raise $125bn to protect 1bn ha (10mn km²) of tropical forests globally. The fund can protect 800mn-900mn ha, the Dutch government said. Mature tropical forests are key natural carbon sinks, as well as crucial for biodiversity and regulating regional and local climate. Tropical forest loss fell in 2025 , albeit from a record high level in 2024. The fund drew financial commitments from several countries at Cop 30 . Germany pledged €1bn ($1.2bn), Brazil and Indonesia $1bn each, France €500mn and Colombia $250mn. Norway pledged up to 30bn Norwegian kroner ($3.2bn) over 10 years, based on several conditions. Portugal and the Netherlands made smaller contributions, of €1mn and €5mn, respectively, to cover the fund's operational costs, and Luxembourg earlier this year committed €50mn. The UK also plans to loan £400mn ($533.1mn) to the fund. Brazil's deforestation figures, including in the Amazon, hit record lows from August 2025 to July 2026, according to data from national space institute INPE. Deforestation has fallen in the last four years during the administration of president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who reversed policies set forth by his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. Lula on 25 October defeated challenger Flavio Bolsonaro — Jair Balsonaro's son — in a runoff to secure re-election. He will continue pushing for lower deforestation, according to his government plan. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
International fossil fuel finance down under Cop pledge
International fossil fuel finance down under Cop pledge
Edinburgh, 27 October (Argus) — International fossil fuel project finance from countries in the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) dropped by 72-80pc to $3.3bn last year compared with a 2019-21 baseline, but Italy, Germany and Switzerland are still not meeting the goal, according to a report by think-tank the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). Under the CETP, signed in 2021 on the sidelines of the UN Cop 26 climate summit in Glasgow, 40 countries and jurisdictions pledged to end international public finance for fossil fuels by the end of 2022. The signatories include Canada, Norway, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark. The US left the alliance in February 2025. The commitment covers public finance provided through development finance institutions, export credit agencies and multilateral development banks. "The CETP is an example of how international agreements with time-bound commitments, combined with ongoing monitoring and accountability efforts, can shift international energy finance away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy, although scaling clean energy financing has been slow," IISD said. But clean energy finance from the CETP countries in the same period only rose by 28pc to $5.6bn and only 42pc of the funding removed from fossil fuel investments has been going towards clean energy, according to IISD. Some countries have yet to meet their Cop 26 pledge. Italy has provided $6bn in international fossil fuel finance since the end of 2022, when countries were due to meet their CETP target, while Germany and Switzerland provided $2.5bn and $1.6bn, respectively. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Climate plans improve but off track for 1.5°C goal: UN
Climate plans improve but off track for 1.5°C goal: UN
Edinburgh, 27 October (Argus) — Countries' nationally determined contributions — climate plans — have improved in quality and scope, but progress in lowering emissions remains "substantially off track" to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and keep a temporary overshoot short, according to a report from UN climate body the UNFCCC released today. The report took into account 127 new nationally determined contributions — climate plans — released between 1 January 2024 and 31 August 2026, representing 154 out of 194 parties to the Paris agreement. The 154 parties account for around 71pc of total greenhouse emissions, according to the report. The report does not include the US — the world's second-biggest emitter — since the country officially left the Paris accord last year. The UNFCCC found that GHG emission reductions — including land use, land-use change and forestry — stemming from the implementation of NDCs are projected to peak and decline by 2035, reaching 6pc below 2019 levels on average. The cuts would imply "best-estimate warming of 1.7-2.3°C by the end of the century", the report said, adding that "returning warming to 1.5°C would require substantial additional GHG emission reductions in the coming years". The NDCs "show improvement, compared with the previous NDCs, in the quality and depth of information provided, as well as broader thematic coverage", the UNFCCC said. The organisation found that energy transition is a common theme in the NDCs and that electrification plays "an increasingly important role in reducing emissions while strengthening energy security". "Against the backdrop of recent energy crises, almost two thirds of parties highlighted the contribution of mitigation measures to energy security, particularly through renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements," the report said. The report showed that 27pc of countries referred "to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner" as per the call made at Cop 28 in Dubai and that 10pc reported targets for cutting fossil fuel fired power generation by 2035, representing a 258TWh reduction. Around 6pc of the parties included fossil fuel phase-out targets, according to the report. The report found that parties in their NDCs increased their focus on creating enabling conditions for renewable energy deployment, efficiency improvements and electrification, with around 70pc reporting measures to improve electricity grids. It also showed that 92pc of the parties included methane in their NDCs and, of those, 29pc pointed to renewable energy generation as a key supply-side driver of energy security by replacing imported fuels with domestic energy sources. A total of 94pc of parties mentioned in their NDCs that they plan to use — or may use — voluntary co-operation under Article 6 of the Paris agreement and 81pc referred to the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes — when countries exchange emissions savings bilaterally to be counted towards their NDCs. The UN Cop 31 climate summit due to take place in Turkey next month "can help address some of the key gaps highlighted in this year's reports with its focus on practical measures to support greater implementation, UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Joint presidencies a first for Cop 31
Joint presidencies a first for Cop 31
Mitigation, adaptation and climate finance may be areas the two presidents push for agreement on, writes Georgia Gratton London, 16 October (Argus) — Turkey will host the UN Cop 31 climate summit in November, but Australia will hold the role of presidency for the negotiations. This dual presidency setup is a first for Cop conferences and it is not yet clear how it will affect the outcome. The Cop host rotates among five UN regional groups and is selected by the other countries in that group. Turkey and Australia were both determined to host this year's talks. The countries reached a compromise that will see Turkey host Cop 31 in Antalya, with Australian energy minister Chris Bowen overseeing the formal negotiations between nearly 200 country delegations. The Turkish presidency has outlined its key concerns, including a 35x35 goal — to increase the share of electricity in final worldwide energy demand to 35pc by 2035. Part of the Australian presidency's priority list will be ensuring that Pacific islands — low-lying and intensely vulnerable to climate change — have a voice at the summit. Bowen and Murat Kurum — Turkey's environment minister and Cop 31 president — will "take forward a presidency-led decision… which captures the global moment and calls for action", Bowen said earlier this month. This could be a reference to a cover decision, which offers an opportunity for countries to set out wider, overarching goals, not always connected to specific agenda items, and which often work to a longer timeframe a decade or more ahead. "We don't want to negotiate a lengthy political statement, but a focused and concrete response to the challenges and opportunities of our time," Bowen said. The decision "could recognise" the inevitable overshoot of the Paris Agreement goal to limit the global rise in temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, Bowen said. He also floated the inclusion of "high-impact solutions for mitigation and adaptation" — cutting emissions and adjusting to climate change — and reaffirming existing climate finance pledges. These are areas in which it has been difficult to form consensus at recent Cops. Background politics As always, geopolitics will loom over this year's Cop, and wider Cop goals must compete with countries' individual priorities. Many will push for faster decarbonisation for energy security, cost and emissions reduction reasons. But other countries will use the same reasons to warn against a hastened transition. Turkey and Australia are dependent on fossil fuels, although both were represented at the International Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in April. Turkey's energy supply was mostly met by fossil fuels in 2025, at 81.6pc, data from energy watchdog the IEA show. But solar, wind, hydropower and other renewables made up 46.5pc of the country's domestic energy production last year, according to the IEA, lending some weight to the presidency's 35x35 electrification goal. Australia is the world's second-largest coal exporter but the country's highest court this month upheld a ruling that blocked a coal mine expansion and could be leveraged to restrict further coal mine approvals. Australia typically aligns with other developed countries at Cop summits, but Turkey is rare in that it is not part of a negotiating bloc. This "could work in its favour", climate think-tank E3G senior researcher Oyku Senlen tells Argus. "By virtue of its geopolitical position, Turkey is accustomed to flexible diplomacy. It has experience in gauging the expectations of different actors and finding common ground," Senlen says. Turkey will oversee the world leaders' summit, while Australia is likely to chair plenaries charting the progress of negotiations. The countries have supported one another's agendas and Bowen affirmed at a pre-Cop event that the countries are united. "We are working hand in glove, for the parties together, for a very strong outcome," he said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 31 to focus on electrification
Cop 31 to focus on electrification
The route to ‘35 by 35' raises big questions over energy mix and finance, writes Rhys Talbot London, 9 October (Argus) — An emphasis on electrification goals at the upcoming UN Cop 31 climate summit could help grind out wins in a difficult geopolitical environment. It may also signal a decision not to deal with the thorny issues of fossil fuels and finance that have held up progress in climate talks for years. The Turkish presidency of Cop 31, to be held in Antalya in November, has made the "35 by 35" goal — increasing electricity's share of final energy demand worldwide to 35pc by 2035 — a central pillar of the conference's agenda. Electricity's share of final energy use sits at around 23pc now. The 12-percentage point increase the presidency wants is the same as the increase in the 45 years since 1981, when electricity made up 11pc of final energy consumption. But different factors have converged in electricity's favour since then — not least costs and technologies. Solar panels have arrived en masse, while battery prices have fallen as energy density has soared, transforming electric vehicles from an expensive niche to a quarter of new car sales and rising, the IEA says. Grid operators have successfully integrated more intermittent and inertialess renewable generation into their mixes than was thought possible, although challenges remain — as last year's Iberian blackout showed. Meanwhile, fossil fuel crises and the grinding of the gears of international trade have made governments re-evaluate reliance on imported fuels. China and the EU are now convinced of the necessity of electrifying their economies to retain autonomy, in the face of limited domestic fossil fuel production. The former has made steady progress, while the latter has talked a good game, even if its electrification rate has grown a little in recent years (see graph). But the 35 by 35 target fails to specify where the electricity would come from — fossil fuels or renewables, or both. Higher electricity consumption on the back of increased fossil generation would shift emissions from tailpipes to smokestacks, critics say, although the higher efficiency of electric end-uses compared with their fossil fuel counterparts could still drive a decline in the latter's use. And grid mixes can probably be greened over time more easily than liquid fuels or gas. The Turkish focus on electrification does not directly touch fossil fuels, the main cause of global warming. Progress on the topic at Cops has stalled since parties agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in 2023. Electrification is not in itself a climate win — it only cuts emissions if it replaces fossil fuel consumption. Follow the money Renewable sources often have a lower levelised cost of energy than fossil fuel-fired plants. But counting whole-system costs — factoring in grid improvements and back-up generators for periods of low output — the price comparison becomes less favourable. And funding for developing countries, where power demand is growing the most, from developed countries has been a source of disagreement at climate summits for years. The 35 by 35 initiative sits in the "action agenda" part of Cop — voluntary discussions, carried on alongside the formal negotiations. The action agenda has grown in importance in recent years, as consensus has become harder to find in negotiated tracks. But while finding agreement is easier when the targets are voluntary, driving action is not. Pushing electrification faster than the current rate will also require hard cash. Debt-laden developed countries have already drawn back on climate financing. Getting more out of them could well prove difficult. And insurgent right-wing parties, hostile to climate change action and international climate financing initiatives, threaten to sweep many European governments out of office in the coming years. Electricity share of energy demand Electricity share of energy demand Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU yields to pressure to delay methane rules
EU yields to pressure to delay methane rules
The one-year delay to the start of the MER is part of a package of measures aimed at reducing energy prices, write Maxim Krukov and Dafydd ab Iago London, 7 October (Argus) — The European Commission has agreed to delay by one year the implementation of the bloc's methane emissions regulation (MER), following months of pressure from member states and the oil and gas industry. But the commission is still facing calls to delay implementation even further, and make wider changes to the law. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen confirmed on 6 October that the bloc would grant "flexibility" on the MER for an additional year, as part of a package of measures aimed at reducing energy prices. The new measures also include the establishment of a taskforce for joint energy procurement on behalf of EU member states, to build on the joint gas purchasing already in place under the bloc's AggregateEU platform . The taskforce will move the system from "simple matchmaking to aggregating demand", with a market operator handling joint procurement, von der Leyen says. For the MER, the revised timeframe means all new oil, gas and coal import contracts must be with exporters that meet the same monitoring, reporting and verification obligations as EU producers from 2028, rather than 2027 previously. Von der Leyen did not clarify whether the commission will amend the law or further soften enforcement, beyond its June recommendation that states refrain from imposing penalties for non-compliance over 2027-29. The legal obligation for compliance falls on EU importers so they — rather than exporters — would be subject to penalties. The one-year delay applies solely to the regulation's import provisions, EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen told the European Parliament, warning against potential attempts to make wider changes. "I would also warn against introducing different kinds of other demands," Jorgensen said. Parliament and EU member states will be able to suggest broader amendments to the MER after the commission has formally proposed legislation to delay the import provisions by a year. Multiple EU member states previously raised concerns about the law's implementation . When a "clear" majority of member states and many others say implementation is not possible within the current timeframe, the commission had to listen, Jorgensen said, when responding to calls from lawmakers for a postponement of the MER until 2030. "We can live with a one-year postponement, not of the whole regulation, but of the import provisions," he said. "Now the obligation is on member states to make sure that they are ready in one year," Jorgensen said, adding that "a lot of new" contracts have been signed in recent months. On the wrong side of 30 Yet some lawmakers are still calling for the new rules to be postponed until the end of the decade, with the announcement of a one-year delay appearing to have done little to quell criticism of the regulation. The EU should suspend the methane regulation not just for one year, but until 2030, German lawmaker Christian Ehler — a member of the parliament's largest political group, the centre-right EPP — says. "Otherwise we'll quite simply be sitting here again next year," he says. But suspending the methane regulation puts the EU's climate targets at risk and opens the door to further weakening of the rules, German Green lawmaker Jutta Paulus says. "With the announcement of the delay, the fossil fuel lobby has smelt blood and is already making further demands," according to Paulus, who led Parliament's negotiations with EU member states on the final text of the law in 2024. Jorgensen has rejected claims that the delay would weaken the bloc's climate ambitions, arguing that the law already positions Europe at the forefront of methane emissions reduction. But postponing the MER until 2030 would not "get the effects that we want with regards to fighting climate change and stopping the emissions of methane", he says. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Air, sea sustainable fuel tipping points still far off
Air, sea sustainable fuel tipping points still far off
Strong global policy is needed to change sustainable shipping fuel economics, writes Michael Ball Washington, 2 October (Argus) — Significant work remains to transition the world away from fossil fuel in aviation and shipping, despite repeated support pledged at UN climate talks. The need to ramp up the use of alternative fuels will be a focus of the UN's Cop 31 climate summit next month in Antalya, Turkey. The host wants countries to join a new pledge to boost electricity to 35pc of all global final energy consumption by 2035, up from about 20pc currently. Last year's host, Brazil, has its own initiative to quadruple global output and use of sustainable fuels, including biofuels, by 2035. And past Cops have produced other pledges to reduce emissions in aviation or shipping. But alternative fuels have not yet reached their tipping point, accounting for less than 1pc of the fuel used in aviation or shipping globally. Cost and politics remain two of the major roadblocks. The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry has shown signs of growth. Major fuel users, including Delta Airlines and FedEx, have recently extended and expanded SAF offtake agreements . And production is on the rise. For example, Neste, the leading producer of SAF, currently has production capacity of 1.5mn t/yr, which it plans to grow to 2.2mn t/yr in 2027, or about 750mn USG. But SAF still makes up a small, but growing, sliver of fuel use. Suppliers in the EU blended nearly 3pc into jet fuel last year , surpassing the bloc's 2pc mandate in its first year. In the US, SAF accounts for roughly 1pc of jet fuel supply, although the US EIA expects that to soon reach about 2pc. Global production this year is set to exceed 790mn USG, up by 26pc on the year, according to the International Air Transport Association. The story is similar in shipping. Globally, ships of at least 5,000 gross tonnage used more than 223mn t of fuel oil in 2024, about 92.5pc of which came from heavy fuel oil, light fuel oil or diesel, according to International Maritime Organization (IMO) data. Only about 0.8pc came from "other" fuels, despite biofuels jumping to more than 1.2mn t from less than 400,000t in 2023. But the slow pace of fleet turnover, and the need for more engines that can use alternatives, means that the course the industry plots over the next few years could determine whether it can meet the IMO's goal of net zero emissions by 2050, according to a recent report from the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD). Cost calculations Cost remains a major hurdle to greater SAF use in aviation and shipping. SAF can reduce emissions under the International Civil Aviation Organisation's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) system, which seeks to offset any growth in aviation CO2 above 85pc of 2019 levels. But using Corsia carbon offsets currently costs significantly less. Argus assessed Corsia phase 1 credits at $12.45/t this week, compared with an abatement cost as high as $310/t for the US west coast. In other parts of the world , the cost of abating 1t of CO2 equivalent in emissions by using SAF instead of jet fuel is even higher. In shipping, GCMD says strong global policy is needed to change the economics of sustainable fuels, as national and sub-national efforts will fall short. At the top of the list is the IMO-proposed carbon pricing system, the adoption of which was delayed last year in the face of US opposition. IMO pledged to try again this year. The agency will meet next month to consider next steps toward achieving its greenhouse gas emissions goals. "Achieving a price signal of this magnitude will be challenging, but without it, the economics are unlikely to support the transition to new fuels at scale," the GCMD said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Country focus
Q&A: IEA's Birol on LPG's role in African clean cooking
Q&A: IEA's Birol on LPG's role in African clean cooking
London, 20 October (Argus) — Since the IEA's first summit on clean cooking in Africa in Paris in 2024, governments, development banks, NGOs and the private sector have stepped up efforts to expand access to modern cooking fuels across sub-Saharan Africa, where energy poverty remains most acute. LPG is still the most practical alternative to the harmful fuels used by close to 1bn people in the region, and the IEA has become one of its most prominent advocates despite its fossil-fuel status. Argus' Waldemar Jaszczyk spoke with IEA executive director Fatih Birol in the run-up to Liquid Gas Week in Istanbul this month about progress so far and the challenges ahead: What key developments have been made since the first summit in Paris? For almost 25 years, I have tried to raise this issue. Every year, we publish the World Energy Outlook and highlight how many people lack access to clean cooking, country by country. After trying to push it almost alone, I was very happy to see growing interest. Based on my discussions with different government leaders, we organised the first IEA summit with great success. We had more than 1,200 delegates and almost 10 heads of state. Together, we raised pledges worth $2.2bn. At the end of the meeting, I told government leaders around the world, as well as delegates and the press, that we would track this $2.2bn. About $740mn of this has now been deployed, or one-third. We have a list of projects across Africa, that are mainly LPG — terminals in Kenya and Tanzania, new stove manufacturing in Nigeria and stove deployment in Senegal. The summit was the first such meeting in history. But there are two other events that I want to draw attention to. The most recent was during the UN General Assembly , when a dedicated clean cooking session took place for the first time. I co-chaired it with Kenyan president [William] Ruto. We had many ministers, including US energy secretary Chris Wright. The third event will be in Nairobi in January. I understand there is huge interest from governments and companies in attending. It will be organised by Kenya, Norway and the IEA. I have received a lot of support from the World Bank. Its president Ajay Banga was in New York, and he will also be coming to Kenya. I will also chair the World Economic Forum in Davos a few days before our second summit in Nairobi. I am going to include, again for the first time, a session dedicated to clean cooking and LPG. The World Bank suggested a bold proposal would be forthcoming in Nairobi. Can you give any more information on it? We are in discussions with the World Bank on what would be most helpful. Pledges from governments, the private sector and oil and gas companies are definitely important. But a well-designed bond scheme from the World Bank would be helpful. In my view, the small IEA, with its limited means, has spent the past 25 years raising this key developmental issue in international forums. I think the World Bank should have done so much earlier, as its key objective is development in emerging countries. In my view, the World Bank has, until now, failed to address this issue. So I am very happy that it is now joining forces with us. We are working very closely with the World Bank, the African Development Bank and others. We hope to reach an agreement and make an announcement in Nairobi this year on the bond scheme. Do you think this scheme would be a game-changer for financing clean cooking? I think it has real potential, but it is still early days. The key question is how effectively the model can be scaled and translated into investments on the ground. Our analysis shows that closing the clean cooking access gap in Africa by 2040 would require around $2bn/yr in up-front investment. The IEA works with a wide range of companies across Africa that are helping expand clean cooking access and could benefit from this type of financing. We are exchanging with the World Bank to help identify the right partners and ensure that the capital mobilised supports the investments needed on the ground. What progress has been made in connecting Africa's clean cooking transition to carbon markets? Carbon markets are already an important part of the financing model for many clean-cooking developers in Africa. By our accounting, carbon credits represent one in every eight dollars flowing into Africa's clean cooking sector. But concerns about the integrity of some projects and the application of certain methodologies have shaken market confidence, and contributed to a credits oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. Rebuilding trust is therefore essential. There is encouraging work under way, including the application of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market's Core Carbon Principles and the development of more robust methodologies under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism. How has the Iran war impacted clean cooking transitions to LPG? When people look at prices, they look at the crude price, but nobody uses crude directly. People use LPG, diesel and other products. LPG is used mainly in developing countries and by lower-income groups, so there was a major problem. We are seeing many developing countries face serious challenges and shortages as prices remain very high. At least 30 significant LPG-consuming countries have less than 15 days of storage left. We already have an oil security mechanism under which we release stocks when there is a market disruption. We are now developing a clean cooking security programme to help countries establish fuel security and emergency response frameworks, and expand strategic and commercial storage capacity. If I had to identify those most vulnerable to the effects of this Iran war, I would say LPG users in the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia. How will the security programme work in practice? The programme is focused on making clean cooking markets and supply chains more resilient. In practice, the programme will bring together governments, companies and civil society to identify and advance priority actions. These could include strengthening domestic policies, investing in critical infrastructure and improving international co-ordination to diversify supply and manage disruptions. The IEA brings significant expertise in energy security and policy design. We can work with governments to assess their local energy systems, identify vulnerabilities and develop practical policy approaches to address them. What role does the LPG industry play in expanding access? Clean cooking is, in my view, the biggest injustice among global energy issues. It can also be solved relatively easily, without discovering new technology or requiring huge investment or financing. When we consider the solutions, which is the easiest and most cost-effective? Our country-by-country, fuel-by-fuel analysis shows that LPG is the number one answer. Our analysis also shows that, among people who gained access to clean cooking in the past 15 years, about three-quarters did so through LPG and one-quarter through other sources. India made a major achievement through the PMUY programme. Prime Minister Narendra Modi once told me that our contribution to this programme helped him win elections in India, thanks to votes from women whose lives changed when they gained access to LPG. I therefore see LPG as the primary response to the clean cooking challenge we face. That is why I thought it would be important for the IEA and the WLGA to join forces to organise the meeting in Istanbul. I know LPG has many uses, but focusing on clean cooking has two advantages for business leaders. First, it is a huge market. Second, it may be good for reputation to be seen as an enabler in addressing one of the biggest injustices in the world. Are we still on track to reach universal access in Africa by 2040 in spite of the current challenges? The crisis has certainly created headwinds and real hardship for many households. But political momentum behind clean cooking is continuing to grow, and the number of people gaining access each year is expected to increase. Unfortunately, progress remains too slow and is concentrated in a handful of countries that have made clean cooking a priority and attracted the investment needed. If countries were to accelerate towards the best rates of progress already demonstrated, Africa could close its clean cooking access gap by 2040. Universal access is achievable, but it requires a step change in action. What matters between now and 2030 is laying the foundations to make that possible. For me, success by 2030 means that governments, the private sector and civil society are all taking concrete steps to accelerate progress. Through our summit in January in Nairobi, the IEA is working to bring these actors together, strengthen commitments and turn growing political momentum into the policies, investment and action needed to put Africa on a path to universal clean cooking access. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India readies for global carbon trading ahead of Corsia
India readies for global carbon trading ahead of Corsia
Mumbai, 8 October (Argus) — India is preparing to launch compliance trading under its Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and access international carbon markets before the mandatory phase of the International Civil Aviation Organisation's (Icao) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) begins in 2027. The move could bolster the domestic carbon market and investment in emissions-cutting projects. The CCTS compliance market represents the future of carbon trading in India, SAF Association (Safa) Secretary General Rohit Kumar said at the India SAF Conclave and Awards in New Delhi on 28 September. CCTS carbon prices could reach $10/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), offering investors better returns than voluntary markets, where prices are uncapped. The CCTS is India's compliance carbon market, requiring obligated entities in emissions-intensive sectors to meet government-set greenhouse gas intensity targets. Firms that outperform their targets earn carbon credit certificates (CCCs), while those that fall short must acquire certificates to meet compliance obligations. Trading of CCCs is overseen by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission through approved exchanges. India is expected to participate in Corsia's mandatory second phase from 2027. Under the scheme, airlines can reduce their compliance obligations by using eligible sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or through Corsia Eligible Emissions Units (CEEUs), which are generated through international green projects, to compensate for the additional carbon emissions. India's proposed 1pc SAF blend in jet fuel alone may not meet future Corsia compliance requirements, industry participants said. CCCs generated under the CCTS could potentially contribute to international aviation compliance only if the underlying credit programme and units satisfy Icao eligibility requirements and receive host-country authorisation. This would require host-country approval, including Letter of Authorisation (LoA) by the government for units to be traded and utilized internationally. The global SAF market could reach $1 trillion by 2050, Kumar said, underscoring the role of carbon markets in attracting investment in high-quality green projects. "As the relevant frameworks develop, Corsia can become an important channel for accelerating India's climate transition and strengthening its participation in international carbon markets," Kumar told Argus separately. Carbon security The government should issue LoAs for projects already aligned with Corsia; otherwise, buyers may have to source credits from international markets, industry participants said. Major economies often buy credits from least developed countries (LDCs), where forestry and agriculture offer largely untapped carbon potential and domestic compliance obligations are limited or absent. European airlines participating in Corsia typically source credits from Icao-approved international carbon crediting programmes. Platforms such as the International Air Transport Association (Iata) Aviation Carbon Exchange (ACE) provide access to crediting programmes including Verra, Gold Standard, American Carbon Registry (ACR) and the Climate Action Reserve (CAR) registry. These programmes issue carbon credits that airlines can buy and retire to comply with Corsia requirements. India does not want to rely on overseas carbon credits. In 2025, it established the National Designated Authority for Implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (NDAIAPA) to assess, approve and authorise carbon-credit projects aligned with India's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and international mitigation schemes such as Corsia. But the framework and its implementation remain unclear. Regulatory hurdles India's carbon market can expand internationally if project developers, crediting programmes, investors, airlines and overseas buyers operate under a predictable framework, Safa's Kumar said. The framework should define host-country approval and LoA requirements; eligibility of activities and credits under Article 6.2; authorisation for other international mitigation purposes, including Corsia; first transfers and corresponding adjustments; registry and serial-number tracking; treatment of authorised and non-authorised credits; reporting in India's Biennial Transparency Report; and safeguards against double counting, claiming and use. "India's key advantage is the scale of its mitigation opportunity. Its large energy-intensive industrial base offers substantial potential for energy efficiency, process optimisation, fuel switching, renewable-energy integration and deployment of low-carbon technologies," Kumar added. Under Article 6 of the UN Paris Agreement, a carbon credit cannot count towards both a country's NDC and an international aviation obligation such as Corsia. India therefore needs clear rules to prevent double counting. The government is developing a framework to meet Corsia requirements, support domestic climate goals and build a strong carbon asset base for global markets. By Nikhil Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
South Korea unveils $747bn energy transition plan
South Korea unveils $747bn energy transition plan
Singapore, 8 October (Argus) — South Korea's government on 7 October unveiled the Korea Green Transformation (K-GX) strategy, a 1 quadrillion South Korean won ($747bn) plan for 2026-35 aimed at advancing the country's energy transition and decarbonisation goals. Under the K-GX strategy, South Korea aims to decarbonise five greenhouse gas emitting sectors — steel, petrochemicals, oil refining, cement and semiconductors — develop more renewable energy, and increase electrification in the transport sector. South Korea aims to mass produce hydrogen-reduced steel, and targets the pilot operation of a 300,000t hydrogen-based steelmaking facility by 2030. In the petrochemical sector, the government aims to develop the technology for electric naphtha cracking, as well as increase the use of low-carbon fuels and feedstocks. The country aims to achieve 100GW of renewable energy by 2030 and will identify locations for solar and wind power projects, as well as lower the unit cost of renewable energy generation. It also aims to upgrade power transmission networks and distribution infrastructure. South Korea aims to raise the proportion of electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles sold to over 70pc by 2035. It aims to do this by establishing a subsidy system for sustainable fuels, and promote adoption by revising electric vehicle subsidies to account for local renewable energy production. The country also plans to conduct extensive electrification of public transport such as railways and buses. The financing package consists of 200 trillion won in fiscal funds, and over 790 trillion won in climate finance. The country aims to expand its climate response fund to achieve this, and the institutional frameworks and detailed plans for government bonds will be established by the first half of 2027. The 790 trillion won will mainly be allocated to local governments and small and medium-sized enterprises. The government will implement tax incentives and regulatory improvements, it said. It will also boost tax support by introducing domestic production tax credits for key components and equipment such as solar, wind and secondary batteries, and by designating small modular reactors as national strategic technologies. South Korea in August unveiled projections for commercial renewable capacity to reach 220GW by 2040 , reflecting a sharp increase in projected power demand. Solar is set to lead the expansion, with capacity expected to reach 155GW by 2040, compared with 61GW for wind. But reaching 220GW by 2040 would be challenging, according to market participants, given renewable capacity has increased by only around 3-4GW/yr in recent years. The rapid expansion of intermittent renewables could also place more operational pressure on power plants and increase reliance on fossil fuel generation to balance fluctuations in output. South Korea raised coal-fired output during the peak summer demand period, although it reduced its gas-fired power generation. The higher coal-fired output was attributed to more frequent ramp-ups and ramp-downs at power plants to coincide with lower solar output days, its main generation type competitor in grid dispatch. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fossil fuels key in SE Asia despite renewables plans
Fossil fuels key in SE Asia despite renewables plans
Rising oil and gas import and subsidy costs may underpin an acceleration towards renewable energy, writes Prethika Nair Singapore, 2 October (Argus) — Southeast Asian countries have rolled out more new renewable energy policies than fossil fuel measures in the wake of the US-Iran war, but the region still remains heavily reliant on oil, gas and coal. Oil and gas prices have surged since the conflict began, leading to higher power costs and greater strain on national budgets that face rising energy subsidy bills. This is especially so in southeast Asia, which receives 60pc of its crude oil imports and a third of its gas imports from the Middle East. Major regional economies — namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines — have implemented 37 clean energy policies in the six months since the war began, compared with 29 fossil fuel polices, according to a report by research group Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA). But because most of the renewable energy policies are long term, the region's energy security still hinges mainly on its short-term fossil fuel measures for immediate relief. Indonesia has sought to diversify its fuel sources , including through Russian crude imports. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in March, and introduced relief measures such as fuel and energy optimisation. The country plans to establish a state-owned strategic petroleum reserve and has launched a 20bn Philippine peso ($33.2mn) emergency fund to improve fuel security. Vietnam's prime minister in April called for the accelerated development of a national crude oil reserve. State-owned PetroVietnam last month signed an agreement with Russia's state-owned Zarubezhneft to study options for developing one. Governments in the region have continued with upstream development even as they have adopted more energy transition policies, but completing these projects may become more challenging now because of cost inflation. Southeast Asia has $20bn of deepwater development plans for 28 trillion ft³ (840bn m³), or 5bn bl of oil equivalent, of gas through six major projects in Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, estimates consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The region also has 106GW of gas power capacity and 70mn t/yr of LNG import capacity in development, according to Global Energy Monitor data, representing $160bn in investment. Fiscal pressures and the case for renewables The region's fossil fuel import bill is expected to rise from $82bn in 2024 to $245bn by 2035 under current policies, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). For many countries, this is combined with the burden of fossil fuel subsidies. Indonesia last month pledged to keep its subsidised fuel prices unchanged . But Jakarta's 2026 subsidy programme assumed a crude price of $70/bl, and so is now underfunded, according to IEEFA. Similarly, Thailand's Oil Fuel Fund, through which it manages domestic diesel prices, is in significant deficit because of rising international prices. The economic case for moving away from fuel imports to one-time capital investments for renewables is therefore compelling, IEEFA says. Developing 450GW of wind and solar capacity over the next 10 years would produce about 83 TWh/yr of clean generation, displacing about 17pc of power sector fuel imports. There is 49GW of gas capacity under construction or in pre-construction in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam, equivalent to 263 TWh/yr of power, according to ZCA. Installing the equivalent amount of solar power would cost $45.4bn less than producing it from gas, mainly because of the falling costs of solar. Many countries in the region have accelerated solar power development plans. Indonesia has unveiled the most ambitious target, to add 100GW of solar power by around 2030 , and expects the initiative to see annual state subsidy savings of 74 trillion rupiah ($4.2bn) by replacing diesel-powered generation. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.