Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
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News
Indian steel's CBAM hit softer than expected: Sandbag
Indian steel's CBAM hit softer than expected: Sandbag
Mumbai, 4 August (Argus) — The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) could have a smaller effect on Indian steel exports than estimated, national average emissions suggest, as suppliers can redirect lower-carbon output to the bloc to reduce their exposure, climate think tank Sandbag said today. Instead of using country-wide average emissions, the think tank assessed CBAM's effect by considering factors such as product categories, production pathways and existing capacities. Overall, Indian exports are expected to incur CBAM fees of €762mn ($877mn) in 2034 using national average emissions values, with iron and steel making up the bulk of the exposure, Sandbag said. Together, flat and long steel, as well as some other iron products, account for about €735mn of those charges, according to Sandbag data. But expected CBAM charges for overall exports fall to €407mn under Sandbag's methodology, which assumes suppliers increasingly channel output from lower emission steel production routes to the EU, while directing more carbon-intensive production to the domestic market. This "expected" scenario represents a "partial reallocation of existing low-emission capacity", rather than a shift in steelmaking technology. India exported about 4mn t of CBAM-covered steel products to the EU in 2025, with flat steel accounting for the largest share at 2.6mn t, followed by long products at about 830,000t, according to Sandbag estimates. Sandbag's analysis assumes export volumes remain at the same levels in coming years and a carbon price of €80/t CO2. The think-tank assumes EU-bound flat steel exports will increasingly be supplied by ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel's Hazira plant, which has about 8.6mn t/yr finished steel capacity and relies heavily on gas-based direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (DRI-EAF) steelmaking. The gas-based DRI-EAF route has an emissions intensity of 1.4-1.6t CO2/tcs, compared with the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) method, which emits 2.2-2.6t CO2/tcs and accounts for more than 45pc of India's steel production, according to ministry data. A large portion of long steel exports would remain competitive if the output is from Tata Steel's 750,000 t/yr scrap-based EAF in Ludhiana, while pig iron exports could be substituted by gas-based DRI exports, given rising demand in the EU, Sandbag said. Sandbag also considers "net costs", which account for higher steel prices in Europe as free emission allowances are phased out, allowing exporters to recover part of their CBAM costs by raising prices. The loss on Indian hot-rolled flat steel exports under the 7208 HS code falls from €97/t under a national average emissions approach to about €5/t when exports are sourced from lower-emission Indian plants, the report said. Sandbag has also mapped out an "ambitious" scenario, in which new low-carbon steelmaking capacity is added and the use of scrap in steel production increases. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Final unit at Hungary's Paks nuclear site still on line
Final unit at Hungary's Paks nuclear site still on line
London, 3 August (Argus) — The final turbine operating at Hungary's sole nuclear plant Paks can continue to generate today and potentially Tuesday, prime minster Peter Magyar said this morning, before the whole plant goes off line because of low Danube water levels. Available capacity at the 2GW plant has fallen by around 700MW since Friday, and the plant was operating at 230MW as of Monday morning. The government said on Thursday last week that a full shutdown at Paks would take place on Monday at the latest, before a day later pushing this back to Tuesday or Wednesday. Hungary's Hupx spot price cleared at €186.90/MWh for delivery on Tuesday, up by €8.33/MWh from Monday's price but still well below the Argus -assessed week 32 contract, which expired at €270/MWh on 31 July. Danube river levels at Paks stood 137cm below the reference level, and can fall another 5cm before the final unit has to shut down, Magyar said this morning. Levels were 106cm below the reference level on 27 July . Hungary's peak electricity consumption reached 5.7GW on Sunday, 700MW lower than expected. There is currently no need for mandatory electricity rationing, the government said on Sunday. Around 300 companies have agreed to limit their energy consumption voluntarily, leading to a combined demand reduction of 400MW, and another 270 companies are expected to follow suit, the government said. All consumers are being encouraged to limit electricity use — especially for air conditioning and electric vehicle charging — between the hours of 17:00-22:00. By Jessamy Guest Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Uganda's Stack Carbon signs major carbon credits deal
Uganda's Stack Carbon signs major carbon credits deal
Mumbai, 3 August (Argus) — Uganda-based climate technology firm Stack Carbon has signed a multi-year offtake agreement with US-based CO2 removal (CDR) asset manager Wild Assets for the future delivery of tens of thousands of tonnes of durable carbon removal credits from its enhanced rock weathering (ERW) project in Uganda, the firm said on 3 August. The companies described the agreement as the largest ERW offtake from Africa to date, highlighting growing demand for high-integrity carbon removal credits from the continent and rising buyer confidence in African-developed CDR projects. Under the project, finely crushed basalt is applied to farmland to accelerate the natural weathering of silicate rock, permanently removing atmospheric CO2. The approach is also expected to improve soil health, boost crop yields and strengthen climate resilience for thousands of smallholder farmers, Stack Carbon said. The project is registered under carbon registry Rainbow's ERW standard, which provides a framework for monitoring, reporting and verification of durable carbon removals. "This agreement is a defining milestone for Stack Carbon and for the future of durable carbon removal in Africa," Stack Carbon founder and chief executive Bashir Dan said. "As the largest ERW offtake agreement from the continent to date, it demonstrates growing confidence in African innovation and in the ability of locally led climate technology companies to deliver high-integrity carbon removal at scale." By 2035, Stack Carbon aims to deliver more than 1mn durable CDR credits through ERW while regenerating around 250,000 hectares of farmland across Uganda and Madagascar, creating long-term environmental and economic benefits for an estimated 500,000 people in farming communities, Dan told Argus . The transaction is Wild Assets' largest ERW offtake to date and its first investment in Africa, it said. By Shribalaji Shenbagaraj Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hungary’s 2GW Paks nuclear plant set for full shutdown
Hungary’s 2GW Paks nuclear plant set for full shutdown
London, 30 July (Argus) — Hungary's key Paks nuclear plant is set to fully shut down because of extremely low Danube River levels, plant operator MVM Paksi Atomeromu said today. The plant — which needs cooling water from the Danube to operate — has experienced incremental capacity reductions since 27 July . Paks is running at about 885MW of its installed 2GW capacity as of early this afternoon. The Hungarian week-ahead contract was trading at about €250-263/MWh by early this afternoon, compared with an assessed price of €217.90/MWh a day earlier. The August contract also rose, trading at €175.25-182/MWh, up from €165.15/MWh on Wednesday. A full shutdown has become "inevitable" because — while there is still sufficient water in the Danube to cool the units — the water level is lower than the suction pipes used to extract water from the river, the operator said. The company plans to move the suction pipes deeper in future but the process would take years. Danube levels at Paks stood at 121cm below the reference level at midday today, a record low, and could fall to minus 134cm by 4 August, according to Interreg Danube data. In the case of a full Paks shutdown, the domestic generation shortfall will be covered by imports, Hungarian prime minister Peter Magyar said today. The country has 3.6-3.8GW of import capacity, Magyar said. By Jessamy Guest Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Mideast war renews focus on energy security, transition
Mideast war renews focus on energy security, transition
Houston, 25 March (Argus) — The depth of the war-driven Mideast Gulf oil and gas disruption and its undetermined length has prompted renewed discussion of energy security and transition in the industry, but familiar challenges remain. The argument in favor of fossil fuels has been "that they're portable and storable," investment firm Carlyle's chief strategy officer of energy pathways Jeff Currie said at CERAWeek by S&P Global on Tuesday. "That also makes them incredibly dangerous, as we're witnessing right now in the strait of Hormuz." "One of the biggest predictions you can make out of what's currently happening is (that) it's going to turbo charge the energy transition into any fuel you want to be local, distributed and not vulnerable to other parts of the world," Currie said. Lessons from the ongoing crisis may also apply to legacy energy systems, BP chief economist Gareth Ramsay said. "We have built a wonderful oil market, which is ... incredibly efficient, but efficiency is sometimes also fragility," Ramsay said. "Will countries now ask again, 'do we need our own refining capacity? Do we need to keep our refineries online now, even if they're uneconomic, even if they're costly?'" Bigger than the '70s The magnitude of the current crisis appears to be greater than even the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which has prompted a decades-long shift in energy policies globally, Ramsay said. "There is no potential for immediate supply response," he said. Even limited attacks by Yemen's Houthis on commercial shipping through the Red sea in 2023-24 have cut flows through the Suez canal by around 50pc, Currie said. Applying the same metric to the Mideast Gulf "means you could lose between 5-10mn b/d... which will have a significant impact and be similar to the 1970s," he said. The magnitude of Mideast Gulf supply loss and price-driven demand destruction may be apparent but its duration is not, ConocoPhillips chief economist Helen Currie said. "Is this a short term drop in demand in response to higher prices and limited availability of supplies, and therefore that demand may come back by the fourth quarter or in the 2027?", she said. "It's that duration question that we're really grappling with." Long term impacts of the crisis could prompt OECD countries to significantly increase their minimum emergency oil inventory requirements, trading house Gunvor global head of research and analysis Frederic Lasserre said. The crisis also could prompt a renewed push toward energy transition, "particularly electrification", but policy decisions cannot be delayed, he said. "We have 25 years to get to 2050, and that's only one investment cycle. So we have to decide now what we do, because it's either refineries or nuclear power plants, not both." North America remains crude President Donald Trump's administration says it will stick to the course of prioritizing oil and gas development regardless of how the Mideast Gulf energy crisis evolves. Interior secretary Doug Burgum at the start of CERAWeek on 22 March touted an agreement with TotalEnergies to drop plans for offshore wind farms along the US east coast and invest in oil and natural gas production instead. The US, Canada and Mexico collectively account for 30pc of global oil output "... and we need to continue to grow that base here in North America, so that we're not as dependent on" the strait of Hormuz, industry group American Petroleum Institute president Mike Sommers said on Tuesday. Russia's war in Ukraine and the subsequent reorientation of Russian oil and gas flows in 2022 already prompted policymakers globally to try to square the issue of energy security, affordability and sustainability. The current crisis is likely to prompt similar discussions but outcomes once again are not guaranteed, Ramsay said. "To suffer a major energy supply shock once might be regarded as misfortune; to suffer a major energy shock twice begins to look like carelessness," he said, paraphrasing Oscar Wilde's The Importance of Being Earnest . "This kind of shock, the second one in four years to energy supply, is going to have major implications for our retirement system, and it's going to have implications for the oil market," Ramsay said. "This is not going to go away (if) the conflict ends today." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Adapting the global approach to climate change
Adapting the global approach to climate change
Washington's withdrawal sets back multilateral policy but economic impetus for cleaner energy remains, writes Georgia Gratton London, 30 January (Argus) — The world's approach to "climate multilateralism" must evolve in response to "geopolitical tensions", Brazilian diplomat and president of the UN Cop 30 climate summit Andre Correa do Lago said this week. Correa do Lago remains Cop president until he formally hands over the title in November to Turkish climate minister Murat Kurum at Cop 31. Cop 30 "shed light on the limitations of climate multilateralism and of formal consensus decision-making", Correa do Lago said, and "to keep pace with global warming, multilateralism must learn to operate at more than one institutional speed". He suggests a "two-tier" approach. The first tier should be based on the key tenet of climate talks such as Cops — consensus — while the second should focus on implementation, including through "coalitions of the willing", he said. Almost every country in the world is signed up to UN climate bodies the UNFCCC and IPCC, and the Paris climate accord. His call came in the same week that the US' second exit from the Paris agreement took effect, while President Donald Trump has also said the country will leave the UNFCCC and IPCC . But this would not preclude US businesses, states and cities from acting on climate change, the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency suggested this week. "We will be able to work with the other entities in the US," Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni said. And Correa do Lago's vision echoed views from business leaders and governments that were put forward at the World Economic Forum (WEF) earlier this month in Davos, Switzerland. Most acknowledged a recent slowdown in effective climate policy, centred on the US volte-face, although the majority were sanguine on the "implementation" aspect — the progress of the global energy transition. India's new and renewable energy minister, Pralhad Venkatesh Joshi, cited "the unstoppable march of renewables". Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng pointed out that his nation "has put in place the world's largest renewable energy system", and firmly reiterated China's support for climate action. "I see a climate policy recession, but not a recession in the energy transition," former US vice-president Al Gore said in Davos. "The advantages of renewable energy have become so obvious everywhere around the world," he added. Shutting out the noise Danish biotechnology company Novonesis chief executive Ester Baiget spoke in Davos about "decoupling noise from facts" — looking past a rhetoric that rails against climate change action and instead at data showing that a global energy transition is well under way. Global renewable power capacity additions grew by 22pc to almost 685GW in 2024 — a record high for both additions and installed capacity — energy watchdog the IEA said in October . Renewable power capacity is forecast to grow by 4.6TW by 2030 — double the deployment in 2019-24 — driven by solar installations, the agency found. Much of the transition is being driven by plummeting costs for renewables. "We are so far down the road that the economics have taken over… the cost of a lot of the technologies has come down so much that it is simply economic sense to keep investing," director of clean power at the UK's energy ministry, Ben Golding, told UK lawmakers this month. Future costs are another factor, Davos speakers agreed. "I'm absolutely convinced that it will cost to be an emitter," either through taxes, purchasing emissions certificates or "paying for the cost of climate change", Swedish utility Vattenfall's chief executive, Anna Borg, said. Keeping focus further ahead is key, Cop 30 chief executive Toni said this week. "We know elections are short term, climate change will unfortunately be with us long term." Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
London, 21 January (Argus) — Inconsistent policies and political turmoil have hampered western progress on electric vehicles (EVs), while China's longer-term stable approach has benefited industry winners such as BYD, speakers at a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel in Davos, Switzerland, said on Tuesday. China's lead in EVs is less about a single technological breakthrough and more about policy consistency. That was the clear message from executives and policymakers at the WEF panel on the global EV race, where China's long-term industrial alignment was repeatedly contrasted with stop-start policymaking in the US and Europe. Speaking early in the discussion, BYD executive vice-president Stella Li said China's EV successes "start from the government policy", arguing that Beijing's approach has been defined by consistency rather than constant revision. "In the past 20 years they never changed, but some countries went back and forth, and this will confuse manufacturing," Li said. "Once the government gives a very clear line, then manufacturing goes to work on the competition." This clarity, she argued, allowed companies to commit capital, concentrate on research and development and scale production without hedging against political reversals, something she suggested remains a structural disadvantage for western automakers. Industrial reality versus political instability Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, whose state accounts for more than a fifth of US car production, echoed this assessment from a US perspective, saying policy uncertainty has slowed decision-making across the industry. "The back and forth policies at the national level have made it more difficult for industry to throw all in," Whitmer said, adding that long-term investments were increasingly being delayed. "Chaos is really bad for business." The result, she added, is that manufacturers are forced to pursue multiple drivetrain strategies simultaneously, rather than committing fully to electrification. Former General Motors chief economist Elaine Buckberg said that a disconnect between political timeframes and industrial reality is critical. Automakers, she noted, plan vehicles years in advance, while democracy can change government policy over smaller time periods. "The typical planning process is five years before a vehicle comes into market, and you're planning to keep it there for six years," Buckberg said. "Keeping those incentives stable is really powerful." Alternatively, shifting incentives and short-term subsidies can distort demand. Li warned that poorly designed support schemes risk delaying purchases altogether. "Sometimes subsidies are more like a drug," she said. "Consumers just wait and the market stops. That is not sustainable." As competition between the US, China and Europe intensifies, the panel's message was that in the EV race, consistency may matter more than speed. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Developed countries struggled to lead, and oil producers pushed back, but a roadmap may emerge away from Cop, write Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton Edinburgh, 28 November (Argus) — The UN climate Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, ended last week without an agreement to establish a roadmap on how to shift away from fossil fuels that some countries had hoped to see, but the discussion will not stop there. Just over 80 countries , including EU member states, the UK, Australia, countries in Latin America and Africa, and island states had pushed for the overarching Cop 30 text to address the transition away from fossil fuels, the largest contributor to climate change, but language on a roadmap did not make the final decision. Opposition from major oil-producing countries proved too strong to push the roadmap through, European ministers said. Parties instead agreed on the launch of a "global implementation accelerator (GIA)", and the "Belem Mission to 1.5". These voluntary initiatives are aimed at "enabling ambition and implementation" of countries' climate plans and at keeping the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature rise limit within reach. This refers to the more ambitious goal of the Paris accord — to hold the global rise in temperature to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. "Although text addressing the response [to a lack of climate ambition] was watered down, there are hooks to build on within the GIA and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C," environmental think-tank E3G said. By the end of the summit, 119 countries — accounting for 74pc of global emissions — had submitted new commitments in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), non-profit group WRI noted. But these plans, if delivered, only account for 15pc of the emissions cut required by 2035 to limit the rise to 1.5°C. As a consolation prize, the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency pledged to deliver roadmaps on the transition away from fossil fuel and on halting and reversing deforestation. This echoed Cop 29's outcome, when a roadmap was promised, for scaling up climate finance to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2025 for developing countries that were left disappointed. The roadmaps "will be led by science and they will be inclusive", summit president Andre Correa do Lago said. Brazil holds the presidency until Cop 31 in Turkey next year. In the interim, the country plans to convene high-level talks with key international organisations, fossil fuel-producing and consuming countries, workers and civil society, do Lago said. He also noted that the presidency would "benefit from the first international conference for the phase-out of fossil fuels", to he held in Colombia in April. Having the roadmap in the Cop 30 text would have sent a much stronger signal, as "the main text is an obligation for all", EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said as the summit closed. But the presidency's work on a roadmap, high-level dialogues and the event in Colombia will create further milestones for climate discussions on the transition from fossil fuels, observers said. The presidency's roadmap could create momentum for the start of a plan on fossil fuels from willing countries, even though it sits outside official Cop negotiations. Fault lines The pushback from major oil and gas producers on cutting emissions by reducing fossil fuel use — evident at Cop 29 last year — grew firmer in Belem, and shows no sign of abating. The achievement at Cop 30 was not to renege on the Cop 28 consensus, French climate minister Monique Barbut said. Almost 200 countries pledged at Cop 28 in Dubai in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels "in a just, orderly and equitable manner… so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science". The Cop 28 outcome also called for renewable energy capacity to triple and energy efficiency to double by 2030 and for "accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power". The main Cop 30 text does not mention the transition away from fossil fuels, and only makes two references to the Cop 28 deal — dubbed "the UAE consensus". Even pointing to the energy package within the Dubai deal agreed two years ago proved too much for some oil-producing countries. "The [UN climate body] UNFCCC's consensus-based process, as well as the lack of a concrete proposal to create the framework for developing countries to phase out fossil fuels, hindered the adoption of a roadmap in the Cop cover decision text," the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative said. The final day of Cop 30 — which ran more than 24 hours over time — saw decisions swiftly adopted. But Colombia spoke out against one, objecting that it included no language on the transition away from fossil fuels. "We are demanding the minimum necessary," Colombia's representative said, to "allow language already agreed under [Cop 28] consensus to be discussed here". Confounding the consensus Correa do Lago suspended the plenary while the Cop 30 presidency sought a solution. Decisions adopted at Cop summits cannot be revoked. But Correa do Lago said countries will be able to discuss issues in June next year in Bonn, Germany, at interim climate talks hosted annually by the UNFCCC. Colombia's intervention prompted pushback from Saudi Arabia and a furious response from Russia. The latter told countries objecting to "refrain from behaving like children". India's representative said reopening discussions would be "fundamentally unfair" and "inconsistent" with UNFCCC process. Russia, India and Saudi Arabia throughout the summit opposed the addition of wording on fossil fuels, according to Barbut. Saudi Arabia reiterated throughout Cop 30 that the focus should be on reducing emissions, not on specific fuels. And the climate-sceptic stance taken by US president Donald Trump's administration emboldened major oil-producing countries to stand their ground more firmly this year, many negotiators and observers said. Developed nations were not forceful, at least in the first week of the negotiations, in their support for a roadmap to shift away from fossil fuels. The EU called it a "difficult topic" and was caught in controversial domestic discussions on its own targets and environmental ambitions before heading to the summit, which may have weakened its claims to leadership. Australia, which will preside over Cop 31 negotiations in Turkey next year, at first could not see a space for discussing the roadmap in Belem. And even though over 80 countries had thrown their weight behind the topic by the midpoint of the summit, details on what it would look like were lacking. China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, remained largely quiet on the topic outside negotiating rooms, redirecting attention towards renewable energy — a huge market for the country. Discussions on the transition away from fossil fuels were not expected to take centre stage at Cop , until Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for this during the leaders' summit that preceded the talks. Leadership came from developing nations, notably Colombia. And there has been an eye-catching change at this Cop in how some developing countries are reframing rhetoric around fossil fuels and economic development. Some, including those with oil projects such as Kenya and Sierra Leone, are increasingly pushing for plans to shift away from fossil fuels — in a just, equitable and orderly manner — and highlight the importance of drastically increasing energy access through the transition. A Cop 30 decision addressing "the just energy transition" was broadly well-received. The text drew links between cutting emissions and ensuring climate resilience and positive economic development. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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