Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
Follow the key developments in energy transition field with our Net zero page and keep up to date with ongoing coverage of these issues by following Argus Media on LinkedIn and on X.
News
India needs $22.7 trillion to hit net zero: Niti Aayog
India needs $22.7 trillion to hit net zero: Niti Aayog
Mumbai, 10 February (Argus) — India's transition towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070 is set to sharply reduce the role of fossil fuels while driving a rise in electricity demand, but the country will require $22.7 trillion to achieve its targets, according to a report released today by government think-tank Niti Aayog. Achieving the net zero pathway requires cumulative investment of $22.7 trillion by 2070, with the power sector accounting for more than half of total capital needs, reflecting its central role in enabling economy-wide electrification, the report said. The report projects that fossil fuels could account for 54pc of India's primary energy mix by 2070 under its current policy scenario (CPS), down from 87pc in 2025. Under the net zero scenario, the fossil fuel share declines further to 14pc by 2070, with remaining fossil fuel use largely paired with carbon capture solutions. Coal, oil and natural gas demand trajectories diverge significantly between the two scenarios. Under the current policy scenario, fossil fuel demand continues to rise through mid-century. Under the net zero scenario, coal, oil and gas demand fall sharply by 2070, driven by higher electrification, efficiency gains, the development of circular economy and the substitution of fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives. India's final energy demand is projected to increase from 688mn t of oil equivalent in 2025 to 1.81bn t of oil equivalent by 2070 under current policies. Under the net zero scenario, final energy demand reaches 1.47bn t of oil equivalent by 2070, around 20pc lower than the current policy pathway, reflecting reduced energy intensity despite an eleven-fold expansion in GDP. Electricity demand rises sharply in both scenarios. Power consumption increases from 1,541TWh in 2024 to 9,800TWh by 2070 under current policies and to 13,000TWh under the net zero scenario, as electricity use expands across transport, industry, buildings and cooking. The share of electricity in final energy demand increases from 21pc in 2025 to 40pc by 2070 under current policies and to 60pc under the net zero scenario. Per-capita electricity consumption rises from about 1,400kWh in 2025 to 7,000-10,000kWh by 2070, comparable with levels in advanced economies. The power generation mix shifts decisively away from fossil fuels under both scenarios. Non-fossil electricity generation increases from 23pc in 2025 to more than 80pc by 2070 under current policies and to 100pc under the net zero scenario. Grid carbon intensity declines from 0.72kg CO2/kWh in 2025 to near zero by 2070 under the net zero pathway. Variable renewable energy capacity expands sharply in both scenarios, supported by energy storage. Nuclear power also scales up significantly, rising from around 8GW in 2025 to 90-130GW by 2070 under current policies and to 290-320GW under the net zero scenario, providing firm low-carbon generation. The country's energy transition also reduces its exposure to fossil fuel imports. The report projects fossil fuel revenues falling from 2.3pc of GDP in 2022 to 0.2pc by 2070 under the net zero scenario, while the fuel import bill declines from 4pc of GDP to 0.2pc over the same period. India's crude import bill was nearly $138.85bn for 2025, down by about 6pc from $147.23bn in 2024, according to latest government data. By Keertiman Upadhyay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
ADB grants $350mn loan for Thailand's energy transition
ADB grants $350mn loan for Thailand's energy transition
Singapore, 9 February (Argus) — The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $350mn loan to Thailand's Gulf Renewable Energy (GRE) to expand renewable energy generation and decarbonise Thailand's power sector. The funding will be used for the construction of three projects. Two of these are solar and battery energy storage systems (Bess) with a total capacity of 126MW and 151MWh of energy storage, while the third is a 68MW solar power plant. The projects align with Thailand's 5GW renewable energy feed-in tariff programme, "marking southeast Asia's first large-scale solar and Bess procurement", the ADB said. "Battery-integrated solar is a cornerstone of Thailand's affordable and reliable clean energy future," ADB's country director for Thailand Aaron Batten said. GRE is a subsidiary of Thai private power producer Gulf Development Public, which has a total generation capacity of 16,504MW operating as of December 2025. Under the latest funding agreement, ADB will provide $75mn from its ordinary capital resources, a $50mn "B-loan" from Singapore's DBS Bank, $150mn in parallel loans from German development finance institution DEG, Development Finance Institute Canada (DFIC) and Export Finance Australia; as well as $75mn from the ADB-administered Leading Asia's Private infrastructure fund. The projects are also expected to reduce an average of 191,550 t/yr of CO2, according to the ADB. Thailand has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 . Fossil fuels accounted for more than 80pc of Thailand's electricity generation in 2024. Installed solar capacity was just 3.4GW, but the country has a high solar resource potential of about 300GW, according to think-tank Ember. The country estimates that it requires $6.11bn by 2035 to advance the energy transition through the green energy, green transportation and green industries. For other sectors, including industrial processes and product use, agriculture and waste, Thailand estimates that it requires an additional $940mn. This brings total estimated investment required to $7.05bn by 2035. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Colombia must rush to hit climate mark: OECD
Colombia must rush to hit climate mark: OECD
Bogota, 6 February (Argus) — Colombia will need to speed expansion of mostly non-hydropower renewable energy such as solar and wind power to achieve deeper emissions cuts and meet climate targets, the OECD said in an environmental performance review. Colombia, a member of OEDC, has relatively low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, at 3.7 t/capita compared with the OECD average of 10.7 t/capita. It has taken some steps towards mitigation policies, but reaching its ambitious targets will require further actions, the review found. GHG emissions grew at an average rate of 1.7pc/yr from 2005-2020. Achieving Colombia's target of a 51pc reduction in net GHG emissions will require average reductions of 5.4pc/yr, the review said. Colombia pledged to cut emissions by 51pc by 2030 compared with a business-as-usual scenario — up from a previous 20pc target set in 2015 — and to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. It accounted for 0.43pc of global GHG emissions in 2021, according to the most recent data. In September, Colombia reaffirmed the 2030 target of not exceeding 169mn t CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2030, and set a new target to limit GHG emissions to 155mn-161mn tCO2e in 2035. Despite recent progress, the mitigation policies, actions and measures outlined in Colombia's nationally determined contributions — a global pledge of emissions reductions — remain insufficient to achieve net-zero emissions, the OECD said. Energy transition challenges Colombia continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels, despite having a relatively high share of renewables in its total energy supply, largely because of hydropower. Colombia ended 2025 with 21,028MW in installed power generation capacity, of which 63pc — 13,209MW — was hydropower, according to data from electricity market operator XM. Meanwhile, renewable capacity other than large hydropower reached 2,685MW in 2025, including projects in commercial operation and testing, following the commissioning of 27 new plants totaling 925MW, renewable energy association director Alexandra Hernandez said. Despite recent additions, Colombia will likely miss its target of reaching 6,000MW of renewable capacity by August and 50pc of supply by 2050, as pledged by President Gustavo Petro, Hernandez said. Investment trends remain misaligned with climate goals. Colombia attracted an average of $2.3bn/yr in clean energy investment from 2020-2023, while investment in unabated fossil fuels averaged about $6bn/yr over the same period, the OECD said. Clean energy investment accounted for just 4pc of total gross fixed capital formation in Colombia from 2020–2023, compared with a global average of 7pc. High financing costs remain a major barrier, at 13pc-14pc/yr, said Alejandro Castaneda, president of thermoelectric generators association Andeg. In addition, a 2022 tax reform also increased levies on electricity sales from renewable sources to 6pc from 1pc, aligning them with taxes on fossil fuel-fired generation. Separately, the government has expanded renewable capacity through distributed generation in more remote zones, but additional financing and new business models are needed to reduce costs, the OECD said. Other structural barriers persist. Most emissions are either not priced, priced too low or subsidized. Colombia's carbon tax, introduced at Ps15,000 ($5)/tCO2e, initially applied to fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, as well as some industrial uses of natural gas and LPG. In 2025, the tax was extended to coal-fired power generators and coal-burning industries, rising to Ps27,399.14/tCO2e. Even so, the tax remains well below estimated climate-related costs and below carbon pricing levels in comparable economies, the OECD said. The system is also among the few globally that allows companies to use carbon offsets to meet tax obligations. The OECD further highlighted policy misalignment, noting that the updated National Energy Plan 2022–2052, which aims to expand solar and wind capacity, is not fully aligned with the emissions-reduction pathways required to meet Colombia's climate targets. "While the government has progressively increased targets for renewable energy, they lack consistency across policy documents," it concluded. By Diana Delgado Colombia electricity production % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK marginally narrows sixth carbon budget shortfall
UK marginally narrows sixth carbon budget shortfall
London, 4 February (Argus) — The gap between the UK's projected greenhouse gas emissions and meeting the country's sixth carbon budget has narrowed by 42mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) since last year, latest government data show. Government projections now assume a shortfall in the UK's emissions cuts of 737mn t CO2e against its sixth carbon budget of 965mn t CO2e, which covers 2033-37. This is down from a projected shortfall of 779mn t CO2e in last year's assessment. The country is expected to meet its fourth (2023-27) and fifth (2028-32) carbon budgets comfortably, with projected headroom of 126mn t CO2e and 86mn t CO2e, respectively, against targets of 1.95bn t CO2e and 1.73bn t CO2e. This is up from surpluses of 104mn t CO2e and 83mn t CO2e in last year's projections. The estimates stem from a projected 25pc fall in UK emissions in 2023-50, calculated on the basis of policies implemented or close to being finalised as of June 2025. New policies included since last year's projections include the Warm Homes Local Grant, the third wave of the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund, and collection and packaging reform policies affecting the waste sector. The new policies are projected to contribute 0.7mn t CO2e to emissions savings in the fourth budget, 9mn t CO2e in the fifth and 14mn t CO2e in the sixth. The sixth budget is the first to include emissions from UK international aviation and shipping, adding 24mn t CO2e to the 1990 base year emissions on which carbon budget calculations are based. The UK must set its seventh carbon budget, covering 2038-42, by June. It has a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The government has also updated projected average carbon prices under the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS), which it used as part of its new carbon budget calculations. The figures are not forecasts, but are designed for use for modelling purposes, and do not take into account any potential changes to the scope of the scheme or linkage to the EU ETS, negotiations on which continue. The government models four scenarios — one assuming decarbonisation in line with achieving net zero emissions by 2050; one assuming low fossil fuel prices and low economic growth; one assuming low fossil fuel prices and high economic growth; and one assuming "unobservable market factors" in the early years of the projections. These produce a range of £22-47/t CO2e in 2026, rising to £25-66/t CO2e in 2030, £74-178/t CO2e in 2040 and £167-298/t CO2e in 2050. The trajectories become steeper over time as carbon abatement options become more expensive, the government said. These have changed significantly from last year's ranges — £62-103/t CO2e in 2026, £50-107/t CO2e in 2030, £94-151/t CO2e in 2040 and £85-154/t CO2e in 2050 — because of adjustments to underlying business-as-usual emissions projections and corresponding marginal abatement cost curves, and assumptions relating to the power sector and interconnectors, the government said. By Victoria Hatherick UK ETS government price projections £/t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
London, 21 January (Argus) — Inconsistent policies and political turmoil have hampered western progress on electric vehicles (EVs), while China's longer-term stable approach has benefited industry winners such as BYD, speakers at a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel in Davos, Switzerland, said on Tuesday. China's lead in EVs is less about a single technological breakthrough and more about policy consistency. That was the clear message from executives and policymakers at the WEF panel on the global EV race, where China's long-term industrial alignment was repeatedly contrasted with stop-start policymaking in the US and Europe. Speaking early in the discussion, BYD executive vice-president Stella Li said China's EV successes "start from the government policy", arguing that Beijing's approach has been defined by consistency rather than constant revision. "In the past 20 years they never changed, but some countries went back and forth, and this will confuse manufacturing," Li said. "Once the government gives a very clear line, then manufacturing goes to work on the competition." This clarity, she argued, allowed companies to commit capital, concentrate on research and development and scale production without hedging against political reversals, something she suggested remains a structural disadvantage for western automakers. Industrial reality versus political instability Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, whose state accounts for more than a fifth of US car production, echoed this assessment from a US perspective, saying policy uncertainty has slowed decision-making across the industry. "The back and forth policies at the national level have made it more difficult for industry to throw all in," Whitmer said, adding that long-term investments were increasingly being delayed. "Chaos is really bad for business." The result, she added, is that manufacturers are forced to pursue multiple drivetrain strategies simultaneously, rather than committing fully to electrification. Former General Motors chief economist Elaine Buckberg said that a disconnect between political timeframes and industrial reality is critical. Automakers, she noted, plan vehicles years in advance, while democracy can change government policy over smaller time periods. "The typical planning process is five years before a vehicle comes into market, and you're planning to keep it there for six years," Buckberg said. "Keeping those incentives stable is really powerful." Alternatively, shifting incentives and short-term subsidies can distort demand. Li warned that poorly designed support schemes risk delaying purchases altogether. "Sometimes subsidies are more like a drug," she said. "Consumers just wait and the market stops. That is not sustainable." As competition between the US, China and Europe intensifies, the panel's message was that in the EV race, consistency may matter more than speed. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Developed countries struggled to lead, and oil producers pushed back, but a roadmap may emerge away from Cop, write Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton Edinburgh, 28 November (Argus) — The UN climate Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, ended last week without an agreement to establish a roadmap on how to shift away from fossil fuels that some countries had hoped to see, but the discussion will not stop there. Just over 80 countries , including EU member states, the UK, Australia, countries in Latin America and Africa, and island states had pushed for the overarching Cop 30 text to address the transition away from fossil fuels, the largest contributor to climate change, but language on a roadmap did not make the final decision. Opposition from major oil-producing countries proved too strong to push the roadmap through, European ministers said. Parties instead agreed on the launch of a "global implementation accelerator (GIA)", and the "Belem Mission to 1.5". These voluntary initiatives are aimed at "enabling ambition and implementation" of countries' climate plans and at keeping the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature rise limit within reach. This refers to the more ambitious goal of the Paris accord — to hold the global rise in temperature to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. "Although text addressing the response [to a lack of climate ambition] was watered down, there are hooks to build on within the GIA and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C," environmental think-tank E3G said. By the end of the summit, 119 countries — accounting for 74pc of global emissions — had submitted new commitments in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), non-profit group WRI noted. But these plans, if delivered, only account for 15pc of the emissions cut required by 2035 to limit the rise to 1.5°C. As a consolation prize, the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency pledged to deliver roadmaps on the transition away from fossil fuel and on halting and reversing deforestation. This echoed Cop 29's outcome, when a roadmap was promised, for scaling up climate finance to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2025 for developing countries that were left disappointed. The roadmaps "will be led by science and they will be inclusive", summit president Andre Correa do Lago said. Brazil holds the presidency until Cop 31 in Turkey next year. In the interim, the country plans to convene high-level talks with key international organisations, fossil fuel-producing and consuming countries, workers and civil society, do Lago said. He also noted that the presidency would "benefit from the first international conference for the phase-out of fossil fuels", to he held in Colombia in April. Having the roadmap in the Cop 30 text would have sent a much stronger signal, as "the main text is an obligation for all", EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said as the summit closed. But the presidency's work on a roadmap, high-level dialogues and the event in Colombia will create further milestones for climate discussions on the transition from fossil fuels, observers said. The presidency's roadmap could create momentum for the start of a plan on fossil fuels from willing countries, even though it sits outside official Cop negotiations. Fault lines The pushback from major oil and gas producers on cutting emissions by reducing fossil fuel use — evident at Cop 29 last year — grew firmer in Belem, and shows no sign of abating. The achievement at Cop 30 was not to renege on the Cop 28 consensus, French climate minister Monique Barbut said. Almost 200 countries pledged at Cop 28 in Dubai in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels "in a just, orderly and equitable manner… so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science". The Cop 28 outcome also called for renewable energy capacity to triple and energy efficiency to double by 2030 and for "accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power". The main Cop 30 text does not mention the transition away from fossil fuels, and only makes two references to the Cop 28 deal — dubbed "the UAE consensus". Even pointing to the energy package within the Dubai deal agreed two years ago proved too much for some oil-producing countries. "The [UN climate body] UNFCCC's consensus-based process, as well as the lack of a concrete proposal to create the framework for developing countries to phase out fossil fuels, hindered the adoption of a roadmap in the Cop cover decision text," the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative said. The final day of Cop 30 — which ran more than 24 hours over time — saw decisions swiftly adopted. But Colombia spoke out against one, objecting that it included no language on the transition away from fossil fuels. "We are demanding the minimum necessary," Colombia's representative said, to "allow language already agreed under [Cop 28] consensus to be discussed here". Confounding the consensus Correa do Lago suspended the plenary while the Cop 30 presidency sought a solution. Decisions adopted at Cop summits cannot be revoked. But Correa do Lago said countries will be able to discuss issues in June next year in Bonn, Germany, at interim climate talks hosted annually by the UNFCCC. Colombia's intervention prompted pushback from Saudi Arabia and a furious response from Russia. The latter told countries objecting to "refrain from behaving like children". India's representative said reopening discussions would be "fundamentally unfair" and "inconsistent" with UNFCCC process. Russia, India and Saudi Arabia throughout the summit opposed the addition of wording on fossil fuels, according to Barbut. Saudi Arabia reiterated throughout Cop 30 that the focus should be on reducing emissions, not on specific fuels. And the climate-sceptic stance taken by US president Donald Trump's administration emboldened major oil-producing countries to stand their ground more firmly this year, many negotiators and observers said. Developed nations were not forceful, at least in the first week of the negotiations, in their support for a roadmap to shift away from fossil fuels. The EU called it a "difficult topic" and was caught in controversial domestic discussions on its own targets and environmental ambitions before heading to the summit, which may have weakened its claims to leadership. Australia, which will preside over Cop 31 negotiations in Turkey next year, at first could not see a space for discussing the roadmap in Belem. And even though over 80 countries had thrown their weight behind the topic by the midpoint of the summit, details on what it would look like were lacking. China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, remained largely quiet on the topic outside negotiating rooms, redirecting attention towards renewable energy — a huge market for the country. Discussions on the transition away from fossil fuels were not expected to take centre stage at Cop , until Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for this during the leaders' summit that preceded the talks. Leadership came from developing nations, notably Colombia. And there has been an eye-catching change at this Cop in how some developing countries are reframing rhetoric around fossil fuels and economic development. Some, including those with oil projects such as Kenya and Sierra Leone, are increasingly pushing for plans to shift away from fossil fuels — in a just, equitable and orderly manner — and highlight the importance of drastically increasing energy access through the transition. A Cop 30 decision addressing "the just energy transition" was broadly well-received. The text drew links between cutting emissions and ensuring climate resilience and positive economic development. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Houston, 13 November (Argus) — Mexico's updated climate pledge sets its most ambitious emissions target, but the plan sits in sharp contrast to the government's push to increase crude processing and fuel output at state-owned Pemex's refinery system. Mexico submitted its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) ahead of this month's UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, committing for the first time to an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions of 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035, or 332–363mn t CO2e with international support. The target represents a cut of more than 50pc from a business-as-usual trajectory, according to the environment ministry, and aligns with Mexico's long-term commitment to reach net zero by 2050. But while Mexico promises steep emissions reductions, it is simultaneously doubling down on a fossil-heavy industrial strategy centered on reviving its aging refining system, boosting domestic output of gasoline and diesel and limiting private-sector participation across the downstream chain. Mexico's refineries — most of which regularly run at below 50–60pc of capacity — remain among Mexico's largest stationary emitters, with high rates of flaring, residual fuel oil production and energy inefficiency. The government has also poured billions of dollars into the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and continues to prioritize increasing crude throughput at the legacy system, even as maintenance shortfalls, outages and unplanned shutdowns remain common. Pemex processed about 950,000 b/d of crude across its seven domestic refineries in September, up by 8pc from a year prior and 57pc higher than the 604,300 b/d processed in September 2018, before former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office. Mexico's refining-heavy strategy took shape under Lopez Obrador, who made fuel self-sufficiency the centerpiece of his administration after years of under-investment and declining output at Pemex's refining system. His government moved away from the 2014 energy reform and proposed constitutional changes that would free Pemex from its obligation to operate as a "productive state company." The shift enabled greater political influence over Pemex's operations and reinforced a nationalistic focus on refining, even as the company posted financial losses and saw its crude output fall to 40-year lows. President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has continued that trajectory. Backed by a congressional supermajority that allows her party to advance Lopez Obrador's reforms, Sheinbaum has maintained the emphasis on fuel self-sufficiency and continued to expand Pemex's role through increased state support. Mexico's NDC frames climate policy as compatible with economic development, job creation and "just transition" principles. But the plan is still vague on specific mitigation actions for the refining sector. "Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico. Meanwhile, the government maintains policies and proposed reforms that favor Pemex and state utility CFE over private-sector companies, limiting private investment in cleaner fuels and renewable electricity. The lack of incentives for low-carbon technologies, combined with an aggressive push to increase domestic production of gasoline and diesel, contradicts the technical requirements implied by the emissions cap, according to market sources. The contradiction becomes more pronounced as Mexico prepares for the Cop 30 negotiations. Mexico, which now joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs, will likely face scrutiny over how its energy agenda fits within its climate ambitions. For now, the gap between Mexico's stated targets and its refining-focused policy framework remains wide. Without clear measures to reduce emissions from Pemex's refining system, expand low-carbon fuels and introduce stronger regulatory incentives, the new NDC risks becoming another aspirational document. Pemex's crude throughput '000b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Brazil's renewable resources, sound economy and supportive policies could make it a powerful advocate for green H2, writes Pamela Machado Paris, 4 November (Argus) — The Cop 30 UN climate summit kicks off in a few days in Brazil against a backdrop of slowing global energy transition momentum and outright hostility from US president Donald Trump's administration to policies aimed at tackling climate change. Hydrogen has not been immune to these trends. Recent Cop summits have given the industry a platform to showcase its decarbonisation potential, but hydrogen is expected to receive a more modest hearing when delegates gather in Belem, reflecting the more downbeat global mood and the industry's slow development. This year has seen nothing like the level of final investment decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen projects that was anticipated at the start of 2025, as a combination of familiar issues — policy uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks and difficulties securing offtake agreements — have hindered progress for many schemes. The hydrogen sector is going through an "era of maturation and is moving from ambition to delivery — a transition similar to what solar, wind and battery industries have gone through as well", says Ivana Jemelkova, chief executive with lobby group the Hydrogen Council. This phase is "inevitably paired with attrition", Jemelkova tells Argus, with only projects demonstrating "the strongest business cases" able to line up enough financing and support to move forward. But Cop still offers an opportunity, she says — the "perfect place to advance practical solutions" to address challenges with mechanisms such as contracts-for-difference (CfD), national mandates and to set up "alliances to aggregate demand in sectors like fertilisers". Countries with renewable power potential — particularly emerging economies — have also used recent Cop summits to unveil clean hydrogen production ambitions, but momentum has slowed this year in regions such as Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa as companies have scaled back production goals and import ambitions . Emerging talent This is another area where Cop offers a chance for revival, Jemelkova argues. "As of 2025, 65 ... countries have a hydrogen strategy, of which 29 are emerging economies," she says. "This year's update of nationally determined contributions provides an opportunity to set detailed hydrogen targets." So far, there have been few signs that hydrogen will play a greater role in countries' plans, however, and the focus might lie elsewhere, given the sector's slower-than-expected progress. Brazil has used its presidency to promote hydrogen for clean industrialisation. It has announced several funding schemes, partnering with international bodies, including UN industrial development organisation Unido and the Green Climate Fund over the last year. But these initiatives have yet to yield any FIDs. International non-profit industry decarbonisation programme Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA) chose Brazil as its first focus country because it combined government ambition, economic fundamentals and a promising project pipeline. ITA is working with 15 projects in Brazil and had hoped that some of these would reach FID ahead of the summit, but none is now expected this year. While projects reaching FID "would be a powerful symbolic accomplishment, if they cannot quite do so in time for the event, it is not a fundamental cause for concern", ITA says, as the programme's goal "is not just about individual FIDs", but also about overcoming systemic obstacles, such as high financing costs. Brazil's broader agenda as Cop president has included a pledge for nations to increase production and adoption of sustainable fuels, which seems likely to emphasise biofuels more than hydrogen-based alternatives. But planned Cop talks on increasing renewable power generation and integrating carbon markets into a global system should promote the uptake of hydrogen and derivatives, even if indirectly. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Country focus
Climate ‘superfund’ bill revived in Rhode Island
Climate ‘superfund’ bill revived in Rhode Island
Houston, 30 January (Argus) — Rhode Island lawmakers are making another attempt at passing legislation that would establish a climate "superfund" to hold large oil, natural gas and coal companies responsible for their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their associated harms. The bills, H7004 and S2024, were introduced to both houses of the state General Assembly earlier this month, state senator Linda Ujifusa (D) and representative Jennifer Boylan (D), the sponsors of the proposal, said on Thursday. The legislation would direct the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management (DEM) to identify and issue payment requirements to obligated entities within 18 months of its passage. Obligated entities would include fossil fuel companies that are responsible for at least 1bn metric tonnes of GHG emissions from 2000-2025 but would not include any that do not have "sufficient connection with the state." Entities covered under the bill would have to make the required payment within six months of being notified, though they could choose to do so in installments. Late payments would result in a penalty totaling to 10pc/yr of the unpaid amount. The bills, which are virtually identical, would also establish a "climate superfund account" where the payments would be deposited, which would then be used to fund any eligible projects identified by DEM. The agency as well as the attorney general's office would be given the authority to enforce the requirements under the proposal. The Rhode Island legislature considered a similar climate superfund bill last year , but it died in committee. Rhode Island is part of a growing number of states that have introduced or restarted efforts to establish a climate superfund law this year. New Jersey lawmakers introduced a bill earlier this month while Maine lawmakers advanced their own climate superfund bill on Wednesday. Vermont and New York remain the only states that have enacted climate superfund laws. Both are currently facing lawsuits from the federal government. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's Lula eyes draft to step away from fossil fuels
Brazil's Lula eyes draft to step away from fossil fuels
Sao Paulo, 8 December (Argus) — Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for the country's own draft roadmap for a "just and planned" energy transition, focusing on the move away from fossil fuels, after leading efforts for such an international plan. Brazil's energy, environment and finance ministries, as well as the chief of staff, must draft a resolution by 60 days from 5 December, or by 3 February, according to a presidential decree published in the official gazette on 8 December. Lula called for the creation of an international roadmap to move away from fossil fuels during a leaders' summit only a few days before the UN Cop 30 climate summit. That led to over 80 countries supporting a call for a roadmap to be included in final agreements at Cop 30. But the proposal did not make it to the summit's final decision. Instead, the Cop 30 presidency pledged to create a roadmap on the issue outside of official negotiations. Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said recently that an initial draft of roadmap could be ready by April , when Colombia is set to host a global summit on the topic . Energy transition fund Lula also requested the creation of a draft resolution to "propose financing mechanisms to implement an energy transition policy", which would include creating an energy transition fund financed "by a portion of government revenues from oil and gas exploration". The ministries and chief of staff will also have 60 days from 5 December to draft this resolution. Lula had also asked oil and mining firms to pay their fair share of climate financing during a speech at Cop 30. This comes after similar efforts at previous climate summits. An initiative from the Cop 29 presidency called for a climate fund, capitalized with voluntary contributions from oil, coal and gas-producing countries and companies, to support developing economies in addressing climate change. But the fund was never set up and the topic slid from the agenda. Brazilian state-controlled oil firm Petrobras did not answer Argus ' requests for comments on the topic. Mining giant Vale declined to comment. But Brazil's oil, gas and biofuels institute IBP "recognizes the importance of creating a fund to finance energy transition and climate change projects and understands that the oil and gas sector can and should be part of the solution for this process", it told Argus . Brazil's oil and gas sector contributes with R325bn ($60.85bn)/yr in taxes and "part of this amount should be directed towards climate finance and a fair and efficient energy transition process", IBP said. But for that it is necessary to maintain oil and gas production, it said. Brazil has been steadily increasing its oil production. It produced 4.03mn b/d of crude in October , a 23pc increase from the same month in 2024, data from hydrocarbons regulator ANP show. The country has plans to expand oil production to 5.3mn b/d by 2030, according to energy research bureau Epe, hinging on new exploratory frontiers such as the southern Pelotas basin and the environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. IBP also argues that Brazil's oil sector already faces a large tax burden, with 66pc of all crude destined for the payment of taxes, fees and royalties. "We want to and will contribute, but it's necessary to point out that there's no way to create more burdens on the sector's supply chain", it said. The group argues that the fund's financing should come from the redistribution of current government oil and gas revenues. "Increasing taxation on oil and gas exploration and production could make future projects unfeasible," it said. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop: Denmark commits to new 2035 climate target
Cop: Denmark commits to new 2035 climate target
London, 17 November (Argus) — Denmark has committed to a new, "very ambitious" climate target for 2035, to cut emissions by 82pc by 2035, from 1990 levels, the country's climate minister Lars Aagaard said today at the UN Cop 30 climate summit. Denmark was expected to communicate a 2035 target this year. It has a legally-binding target to reduce emissions by 70pc by 2030, from the same 1990 baseline. This new target for 2035 will be "binding", Aagaard said today. Independent advisory body the Danish Council on Climate Change previously found that under the country's current climate policy, projections indicate that Denmark would achieve emissions reductions of 78pc by 2035, from 1990 levels. Denmark's new target for 2035 goes beyond the EU's aim for the same timeframe. The bloc earlier this month finally reached agreement on climate goals for 2035 and 2040. It plans to cut emissions by 66.25-72.5pc by 2035, from 1990 levels. Denmark holds the rotating EU Council presidency until the end of the year. Aagaard has thus overseen much of the bloc's discussions of and decisions on new climate targets. Signatories to the Paris climate agreement are expected to establish new climate goals and submit plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), every five years, under the terms of the accord. Countries and jurisdictions are currently submitting NDCs for 2035, although these lack ambition to hit Paris-aligned targets . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate
Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate
Houston, 10 November (Argus) — California is "doubling down" on its climate policies and goals to mitigate the impact of policy shifts by US president Donald Trump, California state senator Josh Becker (D) said at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil. Becker indicated the state is still moving forward on its response to climate change, despite ongoing opposition from the federal government, including to the state's ability to regulate vehicle emissions, in a discussion on Monday around California's climate leadership under the Trump administration. Becker touted the continued emissions reductions for California's economy, which fell 3pc to 360.4mn metric tonnes (t) in 2023 from the prior year, primarily around transportation, the state's largest emitting sector, according to state data released last week. But California is still looking to keep momentum going, including reducing vehicle emissions after the Trump administration signed three congressional resolutions earlier this year to repeal EPA waivers for the state's own tailpipe CO2 rules. "Even though they took away our waiver to regulate transportation, we are now working with our air resources board to come up with legislation for next year to figure out a way around that," Becker said. The EPA previously granted a waiver allowing California to ban gas-powered vehicle sales by model year 2035, known as Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), along with mandates for zero-emission truck sales and more-stringent nitrogen oxide emission standards during former-president Joe Biden's administration. California, as part of a state coalition, is in ongoing legal disputes with the federal government and automotive manufacturers over the removal of its tailpipe waivers. But while the courts deliberate, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is weighing measures the state could take to keep the transition away from fossil fuel-based vehicles on track. CARB plans to consider adopting emergency regulations that would allow it to use tailpipe regulations built on previous federal waivers in a hearing later this month. California has had some climate successes this year despite federal headwinds, including the state legislature's extension in September of its "cap-and-invest" program to 2045. The program, which was previously set to end in 2030, will bring in roughly $5bn/yr that California can use for investments in programs and policies targeting emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience, Becker said. Becker held up the growing portfolio of clean electricity within the state, now 70pc from zero-emission sources, and the CARB's development of corporate climate disclosures as part of the state's ongoing climate policy efforts. California is seeking a 40pc reduction in emissions, compared to 1990 levels, statewide by 2030, and net-zero emissions in 2045. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.