Overview

Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.

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News
16/09/26

Dutch fossil exit roadmap highlights difficulties

Dutch fossil exit roadmap highlights difficulties

London, 16 September (Argus) — The Netherlands has published a roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels, outlining the difficulties the country will face in the transition and setting no date for an ultimate halt to fossil fuel use. The plan aims at the "minimisation" of fossil fuel use by 2050, with its "ultimate" phase-out date left undefined. It identifies challenges in moving away from each of natural gas, oil and coal. The country committed to producing a roadmap to end fossil fuel use at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil last year, and recommitted to it at the Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels conference in Santa Marta in May. The latter conference was organised outside of formal UN channels and attended only by countries keen to advance on cutting fossil fuel use. The Netherlands co-hosted the meeting with Colombia. But the Latin American country's new administration has since said it plans to pursue a different approach to transitioning to cleaner energy, reopening the door to expanding oil and natural gas. The Dutch government said that the transition away from gas is made more difficult by the fuel's role in the Netherlands' energy system. "As long as full-fledged, sustainable alternatives are insufficiently available, natural gas remains essential for our society," the roadmap reads. Gas plays a large role in balancing the Netherlands' renewable-heavy power system, filling in during periods of low intermittent renewable output. Replacement of gas in domestic heating is underway, with increased electrification and insulation reducing consumption in recent years. But "uncertainties are considerably greater" on the use of gas in industry, the government said. Allocating fixed costs of the gas network to a shrinking number of users during the transition represents another difficulty. Some changes have been made which frontload costs to the coming years, when they can be spread across more users. Gas consumption would fall to around 110TWh by 2040, from around 250TWh in 2025, under the government's plan. But alternative government projections suggest consumption could fall to 140-190TWh. The government plans to prioritise domestic production of gas, citing its lower climate impact compared to imported LNG, and lower dependence on other countries. The country produces around 20 mn m³/d of natural gas, or the equivalent of 100TWh/yr. On oil, the government considers the transition to be relatively sure in mobility. But it said that phasing out of fossil fuel use in the chemical sector is more uncertain as demand for sustainable raw materials remains slow as a result of a lack of policy support. Coal use in the Netherlands is limited to the power and steel sectors. In the former, a ban will come into force in 2030, although this will negatively affect security of supply, according to the roadmap. In the steel sector the replacement of the country's two coal-consuming blast furnaces could take place in the 2030s, although this will depend on "technological and market developments," the government said. Environmental non-governmental organisation (NGO) welcomed the publication of the roadmap, but criticised the absence of phase out dates for oil and gas and ongoing gas production. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU allocates €430mn ETS revenues to SAF for 2025


16/09/26
News
16/09/26

EU allocates €430mn ETS revenues to SAF for 2025

London, 16 September (Argus) — Airlines will receive about €430mn ($496mn) in EU emissions trading system (ETS) allowance revenues to support their use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in their 2025 operations, the European Commission said this week. The support comes in the form of 5.2mn EU ETS permits and will be split across 130 operators. This is four times the amount distributed in 2024 , covering most or all of the price gap between fossil fuel kerosene and SAF used by commercial aircraft operators on flights covered by the ETS. The ETS applies to all intra-European Economic Area flights and flights departing the EU for Switzerland and the UK. Overall, airlines claimed around 530,000t of SAF in 2025, which reduced CO2 emissions by around 1.7mn t over the year, according to the commission. The commission proposed in its EU ETS review on 17 July to increase this support mechanism by 110mn allowances, which would amount to around €15bn in additional funding, it said. By Kiara Campagne Nieva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Cut aviation emissions for Heathrow expansion: UK’s CCC


15/09/26
News
15/09/26

Cut aviation emissions for Heathrow expansion: UK’s CCC

London, 15 September (Argus) — There is "no credible pathway" for a proposed Heathrow airport expansion that would meet UK climate commitments, unless the government sets policy to ensure the aviation industry reaches net zero emissions by 2050, the parliamentary advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC) said today. "Heathrow expansion is not currently compatible with the UK's net zero target. Government needs to ensure that the aviation industry takes responsibility for the emissions it creates and bears the costs of decarbonisation", CCC chair Nigel Topping said. The government should require the aviation industry to abate 100pc of emissions by 2050 before consenting the proposed Heathrow expansion, the CCC said. The aviation sector could reduce its emissions through "greater efficiency and managing demand growth", the CCC said. But "these can only go so far", so sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and engineered greenhouse gas (GHG) removals will also be needed, the committee found. It warned that nature-based removals "are not suitable for offsetting residual aviation emissions because they lack the permanence needed to match very long-lived CO2 emissions". The CCC set out a pathway through which the aviation industry could reach net zero emissions by 2050, incorporating the polluter pays principle. Industry would foot the bill for SAF and engineered removals, "which are assumed to be passed onto ticket prices", the CCC said. The committee warned on SAF and engineered GHG removals, flagging that "there remains uncertainty around their deployment at scale on the timelines required". The government should ensure "contingency policies to allow for delays", the CCC added. Heathrow, west of London, is the UK's largest airport. It accounts for nearly a quarter of UK flights and around half of UK aviation emissions, the CCC said. UK civil aviation emissions are provisionally estimated at 37.2mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2025, it found. Aviation is the UK's fifth-highest emitting sector. Heathrow aims to secure planning permission by 2029 for its expansion plans, which includes building a third runway. The planned expansion would not be complete until 2054. Non-governmental organisation T&E found this week that "cumulative extra emissions from a third Heathrow runway between 2035 and 2050 would be equivalent to a full year of emissions from Croatia's entire economy". The UK government requested advice from the CCC on the Heathrow expansion. The UK has a legally-binding target to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Netherlands to miss 2030 power emissions goal: PBL


15/09/26
News
15/09/26

Netherlands to miss 2030 power emissions goal: PBL

London, 15 September (Argus) — The Netherlands is likely to miss its 2030 sectoral emissions target for the power sector, as growing demand outpaces growth in renewable capacity and increases the use of gas-fired capacity, according to government research body the environmental assessment agency (PBL). The Netherlands only has a 5pc chance of reaching its 13mn t CO2e emissions target in 2030, down from an estimated 16.7mn t this year. PBL expects 4 TWh/yr of demand growth out to 2040, mostly coming from transport and data centres. This demand growth will push the country to being a net importer, from a net exporter at present. Policy changes now will make no difference to 2030, because lead times for building new renewable sites are too long, the report said. But PBL still expects offshore wind to become the largest contributor of renewable energy by 2030, overtaking solar. There is uncertainty over whether Indian firm Tata Steel's two blast furnaces in the country will shut down by 2030. Residual gases from the furnaces are burnt at the Velten power plant, contributing base-load supply and a large share of emissions, the agency said. And the highly interconnected nature of the power grid with other countries is another source of uncertainty, because emissions in the Netherlands will depend on developments elsewhere. Compared with its last report from 2025, PBL assumes 1GW less of offshore wind in 2030, and slightly lower load factors for the technology. Gas-fired power will remain the main instrument out to 2040 for dealing with the variability of wind and solar, PBL expects, although the development of battery energy storage systems may allow these to play a bigger role. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU may set CO2 removal targets for member states


10/09/26
News
10/09/26

EU may set CO2 removal targets for member states

London, 10 September (Argus) — The European Commission may propose country-specific targets for emissions cuts from carbon removals in an energy package expected "by the end of the year", according to Christian Holzleitner, head of the commission's land economy and carbon removals unit. Holzleitner was speaking during the EU's carbon removal and carbon farming (CRCF) buyers' club webinar on Thursday. The club plans to launch a request for proposals in the first quarter of 2027, a working partner with the commission on the club said during the webinar. The targets would give national authorities clear direction to boost funding for domestic and permanent carbon removal projects certified under EU CRCF regulation. The plan also envisages linking carbon farming activities with existing public funding, such as that reserved for agricultural support, Holzleitner said. The commission will open a €50bn funding call under the European Innovation Council (EIC) accelerator challenge later this year for early-stage CO2 removal projects that follow CRCF-certified methodologies and other methodologies that may be adopted in the future, Holzleitner said. This will be the first EIC call dedicated exclusively to CO2 removals, aimed at bolstering projects run by start-ups and medium-sized companies. The commission will also open five innovation fund calls that may apply to carbon removal projects around the same time, Holzleitner added. Such projects may be eligible to issue credits through the CRCF buyers' club, which aims to issue a request for proposals for eligible initiatives in the first quarter of 2027, timed alongside the funding calls, according to Danny Broberg, Stripe Climate's climate and carbon removal policy lead, who was speaking during the webinar. The buyers' club aims to announce credit purchases from 2-5 projects by the end of the year, Broberg added. By Kiara Campagne Nieva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Country focus
03/08/26

Oman eyes potential 33pc emissions cut over 2024-35

Oman eyes potential 33pc emissions cut over 2024-35

London, 3 August (Argus) — Oman has released a new climate plan, with an absolute emissions reduction target of up to 33pc over 2024-35, depending on the level of international support received. The country's government committed to an unconditional reduction of 7pc in emissions by 2035, from a 2024 baseline, and an additional 26pc reduction over the same timeframe on a conditional basis. National climate plans submitted by developing countries to UN climate body the UNFCCC are often split into unconditional and conditional actions — the latter reliant on external financial or technical support. Oman estimated its total emissions in 2024 at 93.6mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e). It has changed its approach, now using 2024 as its baseline, rather than using a business-as-usual trajectory. Oman plans to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The government plans to reduce emissions by expanding renewable energy, improving energy efficiency and managing land and water resources sustainably to maximise carbon sinks. It aims to ramp up waste-to-energy, address methane from landfill sites and look at "gradual adoption" of carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) in heavy industry. The government also flagged green hydrogen as a "major diversification pathway". Oman has a green hydrogen production target of at least 1mn t/yr by 2030 and up to 8.5mn t/yr by 2050, according to the plan. But for the time being, Oman's economy "remains heavily dependent on oil and gas exports", the plan noted. The country has a "clear direction toward economic diversification", it said. The government plans to reduce the oil sector's share of GDP to 16pc by 2030 and 8.4pc by 2040. "Oil activities" accounted for 32pc of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the country's foreign ministry. Oman, a member of the Opec+ group, produced 923,500 b/d of crude in June . Oman's new plan also set out the estimated investment needed to reach its emission reduction targets — a total of $31bn over 2026-35 to abate 30.4mn t/yr of CO2e across energy, industry, waste and agriculture. Much of the plan also focuses on adaptation — adjusting to the effects of climate change where possible. Water stress and availability is a key area for Oman, and the plan notes a "clear warming trend" in the country — its mean temperature increased by around 0.4°C per decade between 1980 and 2013. The plan is Oman's third nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris climate agreement. Signatories to the Paris agreement are required to submit NDCs every five years, rising in ambition each time. While countries reach decisions at Cops, the NDCs are the chief route for the implementation of climate action. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Country focus

Colombia gets ball rolling on fossil fuel shift talks


08/05/26
Country focus
08/05/26

Colombia gets ball rolling on fossil fuel shift talks

The conference offered a calmer space to discuss fraught topics and how to convert words into actions, writes Lucas Parolin Rio de Janeiro, 8 May (Argus) — A conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, held in Santa Marta, Colombia, at the end of April did not bring any new commitments to phase out hydrocarbons, but it did look to keep the topic at the top of the climate agenda. Delegates attended from about 60 countries, including some oil and gas-producing nations committed to advancing energy transition talks. Countries represented accounted for about a fifth of global oil production, a third of oil consumption and a third of the world's GDP, according to Colombian officials. Colombia and the Netherlands — co-hosts of the conference — were looking to push the topic forward outside official UN channels. Despite the historic UN Cop 28 climate summit pledge in 2023 , discussions on transitioning away from fossil fuels continue to face opposition from large hydrocarbon-producing and consuming countries, such as China, Russia, the US and Saudi Arabia, which tend to want the focus to be on reducing emissions, rather than fossil fuel output. These countries were not invited because the conference was intended to work as a ‘coalition of the willing'. Only countries " already convinced and ready to work on solutions for the transition " were invited, the Colombian environment ministry's head of international affairs, Daniela Duran, said. Santa Marta kept its focus on fossil fuels, according to non-governmental organisation Earth Insight's engagement director, Juan Pablo Osornio. Participants discussed "the input for combustion", rather than the resulting emissions, he said, adding that this could change the way countries address the topic in future. The debate is shifting from discussing climate change drivers — emissions — to their root cause — fossil fuels — something largely overlooked until Dubai. The disruption to oil and gas supplies from the closure of the strait of Hormuz could make energy security, rather than climate change, the key driver of any acceleration in consumer moves away from these fuels . But fossil fuels are responsible for 80pc of all global emissions, according to a study by the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Some countries invited to Santa Marta are still looking to only reduce emissions, but not necessarily fossil fuel usage and production. Canada and Norway stuck to their positions on production. And Nigeria — Africa's largest oil and gas producer — reiterated its call for a just transition for developing economies, saying countries should discuss a phase-down, not a phase-out, of fossil fuels. Safe space Santa Marta was not a place for new commitments, but a space for productive discussions on controversial topics. It aimed for "multilateralism without de facto vetoes" that is "capable of translating agreements into implementation", according to Colombia's environment minister, Irene Velez Torres. Three workstream plans were laid down, including one to help nations develop their own voluntary transition roadmaps. France presented one during the event, and Colombia published a draft document, intended to work as a potential template for other countries. Brazil is also working on one . The impact of Santa Marta on future Cop negotiations is difficult to assess, with the Turkish Cop 31 presidency putting progress in phasing out fossil fuels lower down the list of priorities . No country has shown it is willing to propose putting transition on the summit agenda. But Cop 30's presidency has pledged to present a roadmap in Turkey. The ball is rolling, Osornio said, and conversations at Santa Marta and future phase-out conferences "will continue to push the issue of fossil fuels and will undoubtedly have an impact within the [UN Framework Convention on Climate Change]". Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

France's fossil fuel roadmap a key step: think tanks


29/04/26
Country focus
29/04/26

France's fossil fuel roadmap a key step: think tanks

Edinburgh, 29 April (Argus) — France's roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, which combines energy policies and climate targets in one document, is an important step, even though no new goals were announced, energy and climate think tanks said today. France released the roadmap yesterday, during the first conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, ongoing in Santa Marta, Colombia. The plan matches France's climate goals with its energy policies in one document, including its national low carbon strategy and its new electrification plan set out in April . It reiterates the country's goal to move from a share of around 60pc fossil fuels in final energy consumption in 2023 to 40pc in 2030 and 30pc in 2035, to reach net zero emissions in 2050. The government plans to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and natural gas by 2050, under its national low carbon strategy and its roadmap. "France is one of the few countries in the world to have such a precise schedule for a gradual exit from fossil fuels," the French environment ministry said. The French roadmap aims to inspire partner countries on long-term planning, it said. France's last two remaining coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close or be converted by next year. The roadmap also states that over 95pc of fossil fuels burned in the country are imported. France eyes a 50pc reduction in gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared with 1990, to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Although the country did not announce new goals, the roadmap sends an important signal, think-tank International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) energy policy advisor Natalie Jones said. "Higher ambition and not solely repackaging existing policies would have been even better, but an explicit fossil fuel phase strategy, with timelines, is new and welcome," she said. She added that the framing of the roadmap in relation to UN Cop climate summits, the global stocktake and climate action is significant. The first global stocktake, agreed on in 2023 at Cop 28, called for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "Few countries tackle all fossil fuels together — this gives other countries a critical opportunity to follow suit, while fossil fuel-producing nations can also lay out plans to diversify their economies as global demand for fossil fuels wanes in the decades ahead," said global research organisation WRI director of international climate action David Waskow. Asked about whether other EU countries could release fossil fuel transition roadmaps in the future, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra yesterday said that whether roadmaps are "specifically about phasing out fossil fuels… is secondary to impact". He reiterated the EU's goals — net zero emissions by 2050 and a 55pc reduction for 2030, from 1990 levels — pointing out that the wording is about reducing emissions rather than specifically phasing out fossil fuels. The "reality is… the same, you cannot be at 90pc [of emission cuts] in 2040 if you will not radically phase out fossil fuels", Hoekstra said. The EU updated its climate law earlier this year to add a 90pc GHG reduction by 2040, from 1990 levels, although up to 5pc of the target can be met using international carbon credits. Fossil fuel producer Colombia also presented a draft fossil fuel transition roadmap this week, developed with researchers, and designed to act as a potential standard for other countries to use. It aims to achieve a 90pc reduction in primary fossil fuel demand over 2026-50, and a 90pc cut in "whole energy system emissions" from 2015-50, while expanding access to energy. The plan pointed to the country's dependence on fossil fuels for revenues. Colombia exports oil and coal worth $25bn, against around $1bn in fossil fuel imports — mainly oil products, according to the roadmap. By Caroline Varin and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

No clear timeline for Brazil fossil fuel phase out


28/04/26
Country focus
28/04/26

No clear timeline for Brazil fossil fuel phase out

Santa Marta, 28 April (Argus) — Brazil has no set timeline to publish its roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, the environment ministry's secretary for climate change Aloisio de Melo told Argus . Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 8 December asked the energy, environment and finance ministries to draft a resolution by February mapping out the phase-out of fossil fuels. That had followed Lula's previous calls to create an international plan to move away from fossil fuels during a leaders' summit only a few days before the UN Cop 30 climate summit held in November in Brazil. But the call did not make it to the summit's final decision despite backing´ from over 80 countries . Instead, the Cop 30 presidency pledged to create a roadmap on the issue outside of official negotiations. But the Brazilian ministries never published the resolution requested by Lula. Instead, the plan has been submitted to the national energy policy council, which will be responsible for developing it, de Melo said in the sidelines of the First Conference on the Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels , being held in Santa Marta, Colombia, from 24-29 April. The process to draft Brazil's roadmap has many moving parts and will "involve a lot of dialogue", de Melo said. "It's a process and we're not simplifying the approach," he said. "It's not just a matter of having big long-term goals, but of having a real trajectory with clear milestones, instruments, means and so on," which is "much more complex", he he said. One of the discussions surrounding the roadmap is its timeline, de Melo said, adding that the process "will take quite a bit of time" because it needs to have "a strong, solid institutional base that truly integrates with Brazil's energy planning". "It's not about having a document with some grand speeches and messages, but something that is actually consistent, solid and guiding over time and that transcends presidential administrations", he said. Phasing out fossil fuels could run counter to Brazil's plans of increasing crude production. It produces around 4mn b/d of crude , making it one of the 10 largest producers globally, according to its hydrocarbon regulator ANP. The country plans to expand crude output to 5.3mn b/d by 2030, according to energy research bureau Epe, hinging on new exploratory frontiers such as the southern Pelotas basin and the environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. But the production goals and the roadmap can coexist, de Melo said. The plan will focus on some decarbonization solutions that are "more or less ready and actionable" such as biofuels, he said. "But there are other solutions that are in the development and finalization phase." Additionally, Brazil's planned production growth will not take place in the short term, he said. So there is time to see how fossil fuels, mainly for transportation, will be used in a cleaner energy matrix over time. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Washington still aiming for 2027 GHG market link


22/04/26
Country focus
22/04/26

Washington still aiming for 2027 GHG market link

Houston, 22 April (Argus) — Washington state is still eyeing 2027 for when it could join the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) carbon market, despite numerous regulatory and political hurdles, the state's Department of Ecology said on Wednesday. Ecology estimates its cap-and-invest program could join the WCI before the state's 1 November 2027 deadline for regulated participants to cover their outstanding emissions for 2023-26, the agency said at a public hearing on the recent draft linkage agreement . Current WCI partners California and Quebec are working to amend their respective program regulations this year. Both have indicated they prefer to finish their work first before fully turning their attention to linkage with Washington. But that does not mean that regulators from California, Quebec and Washington are not also advancing their required steps for linkage in parallel to any regulatory changes. "We expect we could complete the linkage agreement in 2026 and link in 2027, and this is including discussions with California and Quebec," Ecology senior planner for linkage Stephanie Potts said. Quebec's link with the California cap-and-trade program took more than a year to finalize, after work started in 2014, while the process with former WCI member Ontario took just months before it joined at the start of 2018. Ecology must also finish its current rulemaking to align the state's program with the WCI, with a final proposal expected in spring and adoption in summer. The agency must also finalize the required environmental justice assessment (EJA), Climate Commitment Act linkage criteria findings and then formally decide to link. California and Quebec will also need to amend their regulations to accept Washington Carbon Allowances (WCAs). California also requires a linkage report and findings from the governor's office to evaluate the stringency of Washington's cap-and-invest program. One new area of consideration is the shared electricity market between Washington and California. Both states need to align their coverage for electric power entities and their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ensuring neither has an advantage over the other, Potts said. Washington is working on regulations for imported electricity in its program as part of its linkage-related rulemaking. Quebec remains a point of uncertainty in the process. The province's environment ministry again delayed publishing its draft amendments earlier this month, while the new premier, Christine Frechette of Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), forms her government. Quebec is also holding a general election on 5 October, which looks likely to change political leadership in the province. A Leger-Quebecor poll of roughly 1,000 eligible voters over 17-20 April shows Parti Quebecois at 31pc of support, with CAQ trailing in third place at 17pc. California will also hold its election on 3 November to replace governor Gavin Newsom (D), who is ending his final term this year. "Changes in government have not inhibited staff from continuing to work together on this process, to share information and move the process forward," Potts said. Ecology will hold another public hearing on its draft linkage agreement on 22 April and is accepting public comment through 6 May. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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