Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
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News
US exits UN climate change bodies, multiple NGOs
US exits UN climate change bodies, multiple NGOs
London, 8 January (Argus) — The US has withdrawn from 66 organisations, many focused on environmental and climate topics, including UN bodies the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The UNFCCC now has 198 parties. It was established in 1992, and is the overarching global framework for climate action, encompassing the annual Cop climate summits and the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The latter has 194 signatories, after President Donald Trump pulled the US out in January 2025 . Given the scale of UNFCCC membership, events such as Cops offer a rare opportunity for almost-total multilateralism. The IPCC, which was established in 1988, counts 194 countries as members. It assesses science related to climate change. Its reports collate best-available science and research and are viewed as the primary authority on climate change science. The US is also leaving other UN bodies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) including the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) and the International Solar Alliance. "Many international organizations now serve a globalist project rooted in the discredited fantasy of the 'End of History', the White House said "These organizations actively seek to constrain American sovereignty. "We will not continue expending resources, diplomatic capital, and the legitimizing weight of our participation in institutions that are irrelevant to or in conflict with our interests", it said. The US did not attend Cop 30 in November, although several US governors and regional leaders did . The US decision to leave the UNFCCC "is a strategic blunder that gives away American advantage for nothing in return," said non-profit WRI's director of the US segment David Widawsky. "Walking away doesn't just put America on the sidelines — it takes the US out of the arena entirely. American communities and businesses will lose economic ground as other countries capture the jobs, wealth, and trade created by the booming clean-energy economy." California governor Gavin Newsom (D) made a similar point at Cop 30, noting China's power in clean energy and electric vehicle markets. Trump "simply doesn't understand how enthusiastic President Xi [Jinping] is today that the Trump administration is nowhere to be found at Cop 30", Newsom said. The US decision is "regrettable and unfortunate", said EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. He reiterated the bloc's commitment to climate research, co-operation and action — which it pledged, along with China when the US left the Paris accord in January 2025. Bloomberg Philanthropies in January 2025 said it and other US bodies would ensure the US met funding and reporting obligations to the UNFCCC. This is not the international climate finance often discussed at UNFCCC talks, but funding that helps the climate body operate and host events such as Cops. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saudi Arabia targets net GHG cuts of 335mn t/yr by 2040
Saudi Arabia targets net GHG cuts of 335mn t/yr by 2040
London, 6 January (Argus) — Saudi Arabia has put forward a target to "reduce, avoid, and remove" greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 335mn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) annually over 2030-40, from a 2019 baseline. This will be reached "through a combination of GHG and non-GHG metrics", the country said in its latest nationally determined contribution (NDC) climate plan under the Paris climate agreement. Non-GHG metrics include renewable energy capacity additions, afforestation, land restoration and initiatives to combat desertification, according to the NDC. Under its renewable energy scheme, Saudi Arabia has connected 12.3GW of renewable capacity to the grid, with 10.7GW under construction and 34.5GW under various stages of development, the plan said. Saudi Arabia based this NDC on a scenario of "economic diversification with a robust contribution based on income from hydrocarbon and its derivatives' export revenues", it said. It is the second-biggest oil producer globally, with vast reserves. Saudi Arabia plans to reach its emissions targets by improving energy efficiency and methane management, and by deploying carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), "clean hydrogen" and "lower carbon aviation fuel", it said. Saudi Arabia is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with "extremely high summer temperatures, very low annual rainfall, predominantly non-arable land, and a heavy reliance on deep confined groundwater resources", the plan noted. Water scarcity is one of the "most pressing concerns", it said. The NDC references Saudi Arabia's status as a developing country under UNFCCC classification, but notes the plan is not contingent on international financial support. Developing countries, as designated by the UNFCCC using lists from 1992 when the body was established, are eligible to receive finance from developed nations to help implement climate plans. The Saudi NDC also took aim at the EU's corporate sustainability due diligence directive (CSDDD) and carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAM). The EU's CBAM entered into force this year, and aims to spur lower-emissions industrial production in non-EU countries. The CSDDD will require companies operating in the EU to adhere to address human rights and environmental impacts across their value chains and operations. "These unilateral trade measures distort investment signals and affect the competitiveness and continuity of mitigation activities", Saudi Arabia said. CBAM has proved contentious at Cop climate summits , and the issue of unilateral trade measures was discussed at Cop 30 in November 2025 . Saudi Arabia's NDC represents more ambition than its previous plan in 2021, which aimed to reduce, avoid or remove GHG emissions of 278mn t/CO2e annually by 2030, from the same baseline of 2019. Countries that are signatories to the Paris agreement are required to submit NDCs every five years, encompassing increased climate ambition each time. The latest round of plans — requested by the UN for submission in February 2025 — were to map out countries' plans to 2035. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
2026 set to be among 4 hottest years: UK Met Office
2026 set to be among 4 hottest years: UK Met Office
London, 18 December (Argus) — The forecast for 2026 suggests that it is likely to be one of the four warmest years on record, in terms of global average temperature, UK weather agency the Met Office said today. The Met Office's central estimate for 2026 puts the global average temperature at 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. The range the agency forecasts is between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the pre-industrial average. The central estimate suggests that 2026 will be the fourth consecutive year that the average temperature will be at least 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. "Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C", the Met Office's Professor Adam Scaife said. Scaife leads the team behind the global forecast for 2026. The global average temperature in 2024 was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the hottest year on record , several international weather and science agencies agreed. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C threshold. The Paris accord's temperature parameters work on a longer timeframe, of at least two decades, so a temperature breach across a year or a few years does not render the accord broken. The World Meteorological Organisation in March estimated that the current level of global warming is at 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels. And climate science "may be underestimating the magnitude of human-induced global warming", given a recent surge in global temperatures, the UN Environment Programme said earlier this month. This year is "on course" to tie with 2023 as the second hottest year on record, EU earth-monitoring programme Copernicus said earlier this month . The global average temperature anomaly for January-November this year is 0.60°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.48°C above the pre-industrial reference period of 1850-1900, Copernicus data show. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Denmark pledges $9.5bn over 15 years for climate goals
Denmark pledges $9.5bn over 15 years for climate goals
London, 18 December (Argus) — Denmark has set aside 4bn Danish kroner ($630mn) annually for 15 years from 2034 in order to reach its climate goals, climate minister Lars Aagaard said today. The government has set the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for 2035 — a cut of 82pc from 1990 levels, which Aagaard announced at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November. Denmark aims to reach net zero emissions by 2045, and negative emissions beyond that. The government has since the end of November negotiated with all parties in parliament on the new 2035 climate goal, it said today. The target is set, although there was not "common ground to be able to make a broad agreement", Aagaard said today. "The door is still open for co-operation," he said. "I also think that there is a possibility of raising the target at a later date if the conditions change." The government has prioritised the "necessary financing" to hit climate goals, Aagaard said. "Everyday life must not become unnecessarily expensive for Danes and Danish companies," he said. "We are in a different place than we were in 2019, when the last target was set." Denmark's 2035 goal is one of the most ambitious in the world. It is similar to fellow northwest European oil and gas producer the UK , which has set a goal of 81pc GHG cuts over 1990-2035. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Houston, 13 November (Argus) — Mexico's updated climate pledge sets its most ambitious emissions target, but the plan sits in sharp contrast to the government's push to increase crude processing and fuel output at state-owned Pemex's refinery system. Mexico submitted its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) ahead of this month's UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, committing for the first time to an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions of 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035, or 332–363mn t CO2e with international support. The target represents a cut of more than 50pc from a business-as-usual trajectory, according to the environment ministry, and aligns with Mexico's long-term commitment to reach net zero by 2050. But while Mexico promises steep emissions reductions, it is simultaneously doubling down on a fossil-heavy industrial strategy centered on reviving its aging refining system, boosting domestic output of gasoline and diesel and limiting private-sector participation across the downstream chain. Mexico's refineries — most of which regularly run at below 50–60pc of capacity — remain among Mexico's largest stationary emitters, with high rates of flaring, residual fuel oil production and energy inefficiency. The government has also poured billions of dollars into the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and continues to prioritize increasing crude throughput at the legacy system, even as maintenance shortfalls, outages and unplanned shutdowns remain common. Pemex processed about 950,000 b/d of crude across its seven domestic refineries in September, up by 8pc from a year prior and 57pc higher than the 604,300 b/d processed in September 2018, before former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office. Mexico's refining-heavy strategy took shape under Lopez Obrador, who made fuel self-sufficiency the centerpiece of his administration after years of under-investment and declining output at Pemex's refining system. His government moved away from the 2014 energy reform and proposed constitutional changes that would free Pemex from its obligation to operate as a "productive state company." The shift enabled greater political influence over Pemex's operations and reinforced a nationalistic focus on refining, even as the company posted financial losses and saw its crude output fall to 40-year lows. President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has continued that trajectory. Backed by a congressional supermajority that allows her party to advance Lopez Obrador's reforms, Sheinbaum has maintained the emphasis on fuel self-sufficiency and continued to expand Pemex's role through increased state support. Mexico's NDC frames climate policy as compatible with economic development, job creation and "just transition" principles. But the plan is still vague on specific mitigation actions for the refining sector. "Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico. Meanwhile, the government maintains policies and proposed reforms that favor Pemex and state utility CFE over private-sector companies, limiting private investment in cleaner fuels and renewable electricity. The lack of incentives for low-carbon technologies, combined with an aggressive push to increase domestic production of gasoline and diesel, contradicts the technical requirements implied by the emissions cap, according to market sources. The contradiction becomes more pronounced as Mexico prepares for the Cop 30 negotiations. Mexico, which now joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs, will likely face scrutiny over how its energy agenda fits within its climate ambitions. For now, the gap between Mexico's stated targets and its refining-focused policy framework remains wide. Without clear measures to reduce emissions from Pemex's refining system, expand low-carbon fuels and introduce stronger regulatory incentives, the new NDC risks becoming another aspirational document. Pemex's crude throughput '000b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Brazil's renewable resources, sound economy and supportive policies could make it a powerful advocate for green H2, writes Pamela Machado Paris, 4 November (Argus) — The Cop 30 UN climate summit kicks off in a few days in Brazil against a backdrop of slowing global energy transition momentum and outright hostility from US president Donald Trump's administration to policies aimed at tackling climate change. Hydrogen has not been immune to these trends. Recent Cop summits have given the industry a platform to showcase its decarbonisation potential, but hydrogen is expected to receive a more modest hearing when delegates gather in Belem, reflecting the more downbeat global mood and the industry's slow development. This year has seen nothing like the level of final investment decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen projects that was anticipated at the start of 2025, as a combination of familiar issues — policy uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks and difficulties securing offtake agreements — have hindered progress for many schemes. The hydrogen sector is going through an "era of maturation and is moving from ambition to delivery — a transition similar to what solar, wind and battery industries have gone through as well", says Ivana Jemelkova, chief executive with lobby group the Hydrogen Council. This phase is "inevitably paired with attrition", Jemelkova tells Argus, with only projects demonstrating "the strongest business cases" able to line up enough financing and support to move forward. But Cop still offers an opportunity, she says — the "perfect place to advance practical solutions" to address challenges with mechanisms such as contracts-for-difference (CfD), national mandates and to set up "alliances to aggregate demand in sectors like fertilisers". Countries with renewable power potential — particularly emerging economies — have also used recent Cop summits to unveil clean hydrogen production ambitions, but momentum has slowed this year in regions such as Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa as companies have scaled back production goals and import ambitions . Emerging talent This is another area where Cop offers a chance for revival, Jemelkova argues. "As of 2025, 65 ... countries have a hydrogen strategy, of which 29 are emerging economies," she says. "This year's update of nationally determined contributions provides an opportunity to set detailed hydrogen targets." So far, there have been few signs that hydrogen will play a greater role in countries' plans, however, and the focus might lie elsewhere, given the sector's slower-than-expected progress. Brazil has used its presidency to promote hydrogen for clean industrialisation. It has announced several funding schemes, partnering with international bodies, including UN industrial development organisation Unido and the Green Climate Fund over the last year. But these initiatives have yet to yield any FIDs. International non-profit industry decarbonisation programme Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA) chose Brazil as its first focus country because it combined government ambition, economic fundamentals and a promising project pipeline. ITA is working with 15 projects in Brazil and had hoped that some of these would reach FID ahead of the summit, but none is now expected this year. While projects reaching FID "would be a powerful symbolic accomplishment, if they cannot quite do so in time for the event, it is not a fundamental cause for concern", ITA says, as the programme's goal "is not just about individual FIDs", but also about overcoming systemic obstacles, such as high financing costs. Brazil's broader agenda as Cop president has included a pledge for nations to increase production and adoption of sustainable fuels, which seems likely to emphasise biofuels more than hydrogen-based alternatives. But planned Cop talks on increasing renewable power generation and integrating carbon markets into a global system should promote the uptake of hydrogen and derivatives, even if indirectly. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 30 success hinges on GHG cuts, finance response
Cop 30 success hinges on GHG cuts, finance response
Edinburgh, 3 November (Argus) — The UN Cop 30 climate summit's success will depend on how Paris agreement parties close huge gaps between ambitions and actions for cutting emissions and bolstering finance. But the shape that this response should take is still unclear. Leaders are heading to Cop 30 on 6 November in Belem, Brazil, with the responsibility of putting the world on track to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, 10 years after it was signed. Brazil, which holds the summit presidency this year, wants to see concrete signals from parties on implementation. New nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — climate plans — due to be submitted to the UN by Cop 30 are a clear measure of progress. But only around 65 countries, out of just under 200, had submitted new plans and targets to 2035 by the end of October. More, including India, South Korea and Mexico are working on it. If implemented, plans revealed to the end of last month — which include targets from China and the EU, but not their NDCs — could contribute to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 10pc by 2035, compared with 2019 levels, according to the UN. China released its NDC on 3 November. The reductions only account for around 10pc of what is needed to put the world on track to stick to the 1.5°C temperature limit by 2035, non-profit World Resources Institute (WRI) says. "It's now for Cop 30 and for the world to respond and show how we are going to speed up," UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. The Brazil presidency intends to help parties rise to the challenge, armed with the historic global stocktake (GST) agreement that countries agreed at Cop 28 in Dubai two years ago and its action agenda . But, unlike the two last Cops, which tackled big headline issues — the GST in Dubai, where the call to transition away from fossil fuels was made, and the new international public finance goal in Baku — Belem will have to seek progress on myriad topics, with key ones outside of its official scope. The NDCs, although central to the negotiations, do not figure on the Cop agenda, and parties continue to disagree on how they should react to the current lack of ambition. The same goes for unilateral trade measures and the much-awaited "Baku to Belem roadmap" aiming to scale up finance to developing countries to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2035 — a compromise reached after developing nations, including India, decried the Baku outcome . Fights over these topics could delay or even derail other negotiations. The presidency will have to support parties with advancing adaptation — a key Cop 30 mandate — and loss and damage talks, and by pursuing work on Cop's just transition programme and implementation of the GST, where mitigation topics, most critically transitioning from fossil fuels , are likely to prove contentious again. Paris match "We can't have one response to the implementation and ambition gap. It needs to be a series of responses because it has to work not only for different actors, different geographies, different communities, but also for different economic sectors", Cop 30 strategy chief Tulio Andrade said. The Cop presidency wants stakeholders to see the "complex response" as a "bundle of responses" coming from the negotiations, but also the action agenda and initiatives it has launched and partnerships, including with scientists. But these will have to materialise in an increasingly challenging geopolitical context, and while US president Donald Trump, who took his country out of the Paris agreement in January, is dialling up anti-climate opposition in multilateral forums . It is unclear which role the US, which did not send a delegation to the Bonn climate talks in June, will play in Brazil, but its influence will be felt. The US is the world's second largest GHG emitter after China. "Our main priority will be to have Cop 30 sending a very strong signal in support of multilateralism and the 10-year anniversary of the Paris agreement. But we know it's not the best moment [geopolitically]," Andrade says. In terms of concrete deliverables, he says, "it is an outcome that preserves and strengthens the legacy of what we have achieved so far and that accelerates implementation in response to urgency". By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU still wants to lead at UN climate talks
EU still wants to lead at UN climate talks
Brussels, 27 October (Argus) — The EU is seeking to "inject" political momentum at the upcoming UN Cop 30 climate summit. That probably means promising a CO2 emissions reduction of up to 72.5pc by 2035, against a 1990 baseline. But, just a few weeks ahead of the climate talks in Belem, Brazil, the EU has still to formally agree on anything more than a statement of intent regarding its nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan. The bloc's climate credibility is "rock solid" says EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, a former centre-right Dutch foreign and finance minister. He claims a mandate to negotiate at Cop 30. "I'm positive that we will manage to have the 2035 target also formally before we walk into Belem," Hoekstra says. He can boast latest formal figures indicating that the EU has cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37pc since 1990, despite a 68pc rise in its GDP. The EU also only accounts for 6pc of global emissions. In the second quarter of 2025, 54pc of the EU's net power generation came from renewables. And EU environment ministers could, on 4 November, still formally give a negotiating mandate to Hoekstra for the NDC, just days ahead of talks in Brazil on 10-21 November. The ministers could even agree to a joint position on the bloc's 2040 GHG reduction target. The NDC, or 2035 target, could have been straightforward maths, with an indicative GHG reduction touted of 72.5pc — midway between a 90pc reduction by 2040 and a 55pc reduction by 2030. Slovakia, though, insisted on a lower target, eroding the target cut to 66.25pc. Another unhappy signal is the EU leaders' meeting on 23-24 October, which did not mention the commission's July proposal for a net domestic GHG cut of 90pc by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. No mention either is made of the NDC. In vague language, EU leaders merely underline the importance of contributing to the global emission reduction effort in a way that is both "ambitious and cost-efficient", also with an adequate level of "high-quality" international credits. While wavering on 2035 and 2040 climate targets, the bloc is beefing up its carbon border adjustment mechanism to prevent energy intensive industries relocating outside the bloc. That means including more sectors, supporting EU exporters and preventing resource shuffling by others selling greener products to the EU and more carbon-intensive goods domestically. "We're not asking anything from anyone [that] we're not asking from ourselves," Hoekstra tells Argus . Pointing fingers If in doubt about itself, the EU can always point at what others are not doing. It is a major blow that the US has "checked out", Hoekstra says. "Part of [climate] leadership is also to articulate what we expect of others," he adds, pointing out the lack of ambition from other major emitters, notably China. "This Cop is extremely tricky. We know what it means when a US president leaves the Paris agreement," Austrian MEP and Cop 30 delegate Lena Schilling tells Argus . "It should have been the moment the EU says: ‘we will commit to our climate ambition'." While welcoming a non-binding parliamentary resolution on 23 October that called for a 72.5pc GHG cut by 2035 and an end to fossil fuel subsidies, Schilling references a string of legal changes weakening the EU's Green Deal. That includes a recent agreement to delete obligatory climate neutrality plans for large firms under its corporate sustainability due diligence directive. The NDC, or 2035 target will be decided solely by EU states. But the 2040 target also needs to be agreed with the European parliament. The 90pc target is not acceptable right now for EU states and parliament, Bulgarian centre-right EPP member Radan Kanev tells Argus , proposing instead a target of 78pc, dependent on whether major emitters including China and India deliver on their pledges. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Country focus
Cop: Denmark commits to new 2035 climate target
Cop: Denmark commits to new 2035 climate target
London, 17 November (Argus) — Denmark has committed to a new, "very ambitious" climate target for 2035, to cut emissions by 82pc by 2035, from 1990 levels, the country's climate minister Lars Aagaard said today at the UN Cop 30 climate summit. Denmark was expected to communicate a 2035 target this year. It has a legally-binding target to reduce emissions by 70pc by 2030, from the same 1990 baseline. This new target for 2035 will be "binding", Aagaard said today. Independent advisory body the Danish Council on Climate Change previously found that under the country's current climate policy, projections indicate that Denmark would achieve emissions reductions of 78pc by 2035, from 1990 levels. Denmark's new target for 2035 goes beyond the EU's aim for the same timeframe. The bloc earlier this month finally reached agreement on climate goals for 2035 and 2040. It plans to cut emissions by 66.25-72.5pc by 2035, from 1990 levels. Denmark holds the rotating EU Council presidency until the end of the year. Aagaard has thus overseen much of the bloc's discussions of and decisions on new climate targets. Signatories to the Paris climate agreement are expected to establish new climate goals and submit plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), every five years, under the terms of the accord. Countries and jurisdictions are currently submitting NDCs for 2035, although these lack ambition to hit Paris-aligned targets . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate
Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate
Houston, 10 November (Argus) — California is "doubling down" on its climate policies and goals to mitigate the impact of policy shifts by US president Donald Trump, California state senator Josh Becker (D) said at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil. Becker indicated the state is still moving forward on its response to climate change, despite ongoing opposition from the federal government, including to the state's ability to regulate vehicle emissions, in a discussion on Monday around California's climate leadership under the Trump administration. Becker touted the continued emissions reductions for California's economy, which fell 3pc to 360.4mn metric tonnes (t) in 2023 from the prior year, primarily around transportation, the state's largest emitting sector, according to state data released last week. But California is still looking to keep momentum going, including reducing vehicle emissions after the Trump administration signed three congressional resolutions earlier this year to repeal EPA waivers for the state's own tailpipe CO2 rules. "Even though they took away our waiver to regulate transportation, we are now working with our air resources board to come up with legislation for next year to figure out a way around that," Becker said. The EPA previously granted a waiver allowing California to ban gas-powered vehicle sales by model year 2035, known as Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), along with mandates for zero-emission truck sales and more-stringent nitrogen oxide emission standards during former-president Joe Biden's administration. California, as part of a state coalition, is in ongoing legal disputes with the federal government and automotive manufacturers over the removal of its tailpipe waivers. But while the courts deliberate, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is weighing measures the state could take to keep the transition away from fossil fuel-based vehicles on track. CARB plans to consider adopting emergency regulations that would allow it to use tailpipe regulations built on previous federal waivers in a hearing later this month. California has had some climate successes this year despite federal headwinds, including the state legislature's extension in September of its "cap-and-invest" program to 2045. The program, which was previously set to end in 2030, will bring in roughly $5bn/yr that California can use for investments in programs and policies targeting emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience, Becker said. Becker held up the growing portfolio of clean electricity within the state, now 70pc from zero-emission sources, and the CARB's development of corporate climate disclosures as part of the state's ongoing climate policy efforts. California is seeking a 40pc reduction in emissions, compared to 1990 levels, statewide by 2030, and net-zero emissions in 2045. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada set to scrap oil and gas emissions cap
Canada set to scrap oil and gas emissions cap
Calgary, 4 November (Argus) — Canada is prepared to scrap its planned oil and gas emissions cap provided other technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) grow "at scale", the government said today. A proposed cap-and-trade system to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its oil and gas sector by 35pc compared to 2019 levels is likely to be abandoned, according to the federal government's 2025 budget released on Tuesday. The budget unveiled by finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne in the House of Commons comes against a backdrop of significant uncertainty for the country. A lagging economy and punitive tariffs from the US have prompted Canadian politicians to rethink the country's industrial policy, including climate initiatives that the oil and gas sector says stifles investment. The oil and gas emissions cap would "no longer be required as it would have marginal value in reducing emissions" if there are effective carbon markets, enhanced oil and gas methane regulations and deployment at scale of technologies such as CCS, according to the budget. But as it stands, producers of oil, natural gas and liquefied natural gas will need to meet the emissions cap target by 2030-32, following a four-year phase-in from 2026-29. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario provincial governments have long opposed the proposal, with Alberta premier Danielle Smith arguing that it would have capped production in the province. Smith said in 2024 that the province would pursue a constitutional challenge against the federal cap in its provincial court. The sector produces the lion's share of Canada's emissions, at 208mn metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023, according to the latest federal data available. If built, Pathways Alliances' C$16.5bn ($12bn) CCS project could sock away up to 22mn t/yr of CO2 by 2030 and make a meaningful step in offsetting greenhouse gas emissions by Canada's oil and gas sector. Prime minister Mark Carney has said decarbonizing Canadian oil — found mostly from Alberta — is a key component in getting another crude pipeline approved to the Pacific coast. But an existing tanker ban on the northwest coast of British Columbia represents yet another impediment for any company interested in building such a pipeline. The government also plans to update the controversial greenwashing law that came into effect in June 2024, according to Tuesday's budget. Oil and gas companies said the law is both vague, invites "meritless litigation" and prohibits discussion on their climate-related investments and plans. Carney's Liberal party hold a minority in the house — 169 of 343 seats — and will need support of other parties to pass the budget. By Brett Holmes and Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New Zealand announces ETS, climate law changes
New Zealand announces ETS, climate law changes
London, 4 November (Argus) — The New Zealand government announced on Tuesday draft changes to the emissions trading scheme (NZ ETS), including provisions that will help recognize carbon removal in the future, as well as changes to the climate change response act. Among the draft NZ ETS proposal are changes in how the government reviews companies' industrial allowance allocations, which is aimed at reducing barriers for firms to invest in decarbonization projects. The ETS settings decisions will become a biennial process going forward, instead of the current annual review, although this new rule will not affect the annual decision planned for 2026. The government is also removing a provision within the country's climate change act that requires NZ ETS unit volumes and price control regulations to accord with the nationally determined contributions under the UN's Paris Agreement on climate change. Changes to the operation of the ETS scheme include: adding the import of carbon dioxide in the NZ ETS; administrative changes to penalty repayment rules managed by the environmental protection authority; allowing flexibility for foresters to re-establish forests after significant disruptions such as severe weather events; and minor adjustments such as extending deadlines after major disruptions and allowing for discretion to waive ETS penalties in some instances. The government has also been "exploring opportunities to recognize and reward non-forestry removals" and is "progressing work" on releasing an assessment framework for carbon removals which will guide developers on the scientific evidence needed to gain removals credits and clarify the pathway for crediting new activities in the ETS. It is also working to amend the climate change law to add "carbon removal activities" as an activity that can be recognized under the NZ ETS — although this change would not outright grant recognition but rather pave the path for this happening in the future, it said. The government is also updating the guidance for the voluntary carbon markets in 2026 and stakeholders will be able to submit projects for assessment in the first half of 2026. The New Zealand government said on 4 November it was making these changes to "ensure" the climate change law "is working well and as intended." These follow the completion of a review earlier this year. It delayed the due date for government organizations to become carbon neutral to 2050, from 2025 which was "too soon" to meet this target. While buying offset credits could have been an alternative to achieve this, there are not enough such credits in the local market available to meet such demand, it said. The Climate Change Commission will no longer be required to advise the government on emissions reduction plans (ERPs), although the commission will continue to provide advice on the five-yearly emissions budgets and the annual emissions reduction monitoring report — with the latter's timing brought forward to April, to align it with the timing of the annual release of emissions projections. The new rules will also allow more flexibility on the process for amending or replacing ERPs and the related policies and strategies, by removing the requirement to consult on such changes. The amendment bill to the climate change act will be submitted in 2026, although the change to remove the requirement for ETS settings to accord with NDCs will be adopted by the end of the current year, the government said. A separate amendment bill will also be introduced and adopted before the end of 2025 to bring recently announced updates to the 2050 biogenic methane target into law, it said. By Erisa Senerdem Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.