Overview

Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.

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17/12/25

EU's Hoekstra confident of CBAM export support

EU's Hoekstra confident of CBAM export support

Brussels, 17 December (Argus) — European climate and taxation commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is "absolutely" confident that EU member states will give "full" support to an EU-wide temporary decarbonisation fund for carbon leakage in industrial sectors covered by the bloc's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). This is despite the European Commission proposing that 25pc of CBAM revenues originally earmarked for national budgets now finance the CBAM fund. "We're not going to make this part of the EU budget. This is money that immediately is going to be spent on the companies of member states," Hoekstra told Argus , noting that the fund is helping EU states' own industries. Financing the fund may still be contentious, especially for EU countries. In addition to proposing that the fund be financed by revenues currently earmarked for EU states' budgets, the commission leaves untouched the remaining 75pc earmarked for the EU budget. Hoekstra said that CBAM's increased scope, expanded to downstream products, "roughly" equates to the financing required for the fund. "We did not try to design it exactly that way. But it is convenient because it makes the conversation with member states even easier," Hoekstra said. The European Parliament and EU member states are likely to amend the revised CBAM regulation and accompanying laws before adoption. Under the proposal, over 140 CN goods categories produced by EU-based manufacturers will receive support from the fund. The commission does not propose any differentiation between support given to manufacturers' EU exports and locally sold goods. The commission is proposing extending CBAM to certain steel and aluminium-intensive downstream products from the start of 2028. A further 180 CN custom duty codes will include some 7,500 new importers under the mechanism. A wide range of iron and steel products are proposed for inclusion, including stranded wire, ropes, cables, washing machines, sawing machines and even metal furniture. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update


16/12/25
News
16/12/25

EU eases ICE phase-out with 2035 CO2 car target: Update

Adds details on credits, transport commissioner comment in paragraphs 4-6 Brussels, 16 December (Argus) — The European Commission has proposed a new 90pc cut in car fleet emissions by 2035, replacing the previously agreed 100pc target that would have effectively phased out the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles from that date The plan would allow some new ICE vehicles to remain on sale beyond 2035, alongside plug-in hybrids, range extenders and mild hybrids, as well as electric and hydrogen cars. The remaining 10pc of emissions would need to be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels or biofuels, according to the commission. The proposals need to be adopted by a majority in the European Parliament and among EU states. Automakers could also "bank and borrow" credits between 2030-32 to help meet the existing 2030 target of a 55pc cut from 2021 levels. Under the new proposals, manufacturers using these flexibilities would only need to achieve a 40pc fleet-average reduction, down from a previously planned 50pc. The commission indicated that credits for greenhouse gas (GHG) savings from e-fuels and biofuels can compensate up to 3pc of manufacturers' reference targets for 2035 and low-carbon steel credits can compensate for a further 7pc. Transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said the credit system will boost uptake of sustainable fuels. "This is a clear signal than other technologies than battery electric vehicles (BEV) can be put on the market after 2035," said Tzitzikostas. Expanded carbon-neutral criteria would allow sustainable biofuels to help meet the targets that currently require 0g/km from 2035. EU renewable ethanol group ePure said emissions from ethanol were 79pc lower than fossil fuels in 2024, in line with previous years. The European Biodiesel Board reported savings of 77-81pc for biodiesel, using the official fossil fuel comparator of 94g of CO2e/MJ. German MEP Peter Liese criticised the original ICE ban, but said industry problems stem from market shifts, not from Brussels. "The industry must stop shifting the blame for its own mistakes and for market developments, for example in China, onto Brussels," he said, adding that he will push for green steel recognition before 2035. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU eases ICE phase-out with new 2035 CO2 car target


16/12/25
News
16/12/25

EU eases ICE phase-out with new 2035 CO2 car target

Brussels, 16 December (Argus) — The European Commission has proposed a new 90pc cut in car fleet emissions by 2035, replacing the previously agreed 100pc target that would have effectively phased out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The plan would allow some ICE vehicles to remain in use beyond 2035, alongside plug-in hybrids, range extenders and mild hybrids, as well as electric and hydrogen cars. The remaining 10pc of emissions would need to be offset through low-carbon steel, e-fuels or biofuels, according to the commission. The proposals need to be adopted by a majority in the European Parliament and among EU states. Automakers could also "bank and borrow" credits between 2030-32 to help meet the existing 2030 target of a 55pc cut from 2021 levels. Under the new proposals, manufacturers using these flexibilities would only need to achieve a 40pc fleet-average reduction, down from a previously planned 50pc. Expanded carbon-neutral criteria would allow sustainable biofuels to help meet the targets that currently require 0g/km from 2035. EU renewable ethanol group ePure said emissions from ethanol were 79pc lower than fossil fuels in 2024, in line with previous years. The European Biodiesel Board reported savings of 77-81pc for biodiesel, using the official fossil fuel comparator of 94g of CO2e/MJ. German MEP Peter Liese criticised the original ICE ban, but said industry problems stem from market shifts, not from Brussels. "The industry must stop shifting the blame for its own mistakes and for market developments, for example in China, onto Brussels," he said, adding that he will push for green steel recognition before 2035. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU to dilute Ice vehicle phase out: German lawmaker


15/12/25
News
15/12/25

EU to dilute Ice vehicle phase out: German lawmaker

Brussels, 15 December (Argus) — The European Commission is likely this week to dilute its plan to phase out sales of new internal combustion engine (Ice) vehicles by 2035, according to a lawmaker. "The ban on internal combustion engines is history," said Manfred Weber, the chair of parliament's largest centre-right group EPP. He said the commission will present on 16 December an automotive package that "will revise the CO2 standards for cars, reversing the disastrous ban on internal combustion engines". Weber is a member of Germany's CDU/CSU party, as is commission president Ursula von der Leyen. German chancellor Friedrich Merz has called on the EU to allow the sale of vehicles with highly efficient combustion engines, plug-in hybrids and range-extender EVs beyond 2035. This had faced pushback, with more than 150 European e-mobility firms requesting the commission "stand firm" on its 2035 target. An EU official said the target is now likely to be for a 90pc GHG reduction from 2035 for new vehicles. "As it stands the targets for 2030, but also 2035, are not realistic," said Sigrid de Vries, director general of the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA). "Even with a 90pc target [for reducing GHG by 2035], make no mistake, that will be very, very challenging." The European motor industry has already flagged the possibility of huge fines for manufacturers should they fail to meet existing emissions targets, which are for a 15pc reduction by 2029 compared with a 2021 baseline, and a 55pc reduction from the same baseline in 2030-34. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK, Malaysia strengthen energy transition partnership


15/12/25
News
15/12/25

UK, Malaysia strengthen energy transition partnership

Singapore, 15 December (Argus) — The UK and Malaysia have launched the second phase of the Malaysia-UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (UK PACT) fund, which is aimed at supporting Malaysia's energy transition through targeted projects. The UK will provide up to £2.9mn ($3.88mn) in funding across the 2025-26 and 2026-27 financial years, the countries announced on 12 December. The programme aims to establish a pathway for private and public sector participants through a strategic roadmap for green finance, as well as enable investment into energy storage solutions and grid infrastructure, and strengthen carbon market mechanisms. This second phase builds on the support provided by the UK over 2020-23 and is in line with Malaysia's more recent climate policies such as its national energy transition roadmap, its nationally determined contribution (NDC) for 2035 and its upcoming climate change bill. The first iteration of the programme involved up to £2.6mn in funding for projects in priority areas such as energy, nature and low-carbon policies. The Malaysia-UK PACT in July called for proposals from eligible organisations to develop projects focusing on objectives such as developing a sustainable finance roadmap, improving project bankability by establishing a regulatory framework for renewable integration solutions with a focus on energy storage systems, and providing support to industry and high-emitting sectors to prepare to participate in the domestic emissions trading scheme. The UK has partnered with multiple other countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and most recently, the Philippines, under the PACT programme, which is governed and jointly funded by the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Malaysia intends to hit peak emissions by as early as 2030 and no later than 2034, depending on the availability of support. In its latest NDC, it aims to achieve an absolute emissions reduction of 15mn-30mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035 from its projected peak level, which it did not indicate. The country will introduce a carbon tax next year, with an initial focus on the iron, steel and energy sectors. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Country focus
08/12/25

Brazil's Lula eyes draft to step away from fossil fuels

Brazil's Lula eyes draft to step away from fossil fuels

Sao Paulo, 8 December (Argus) — Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for the country's own draft roadmap for a "just and planned" energy transition, focusing on the move away from fossil fuels, after leading efforts for such an international plan. Brazil's energy, environment and finance ministries, as well as the chief of staff, must draft a resolution by 60 days from 5 December, or by 3 February, according to a presidential decree published in the official gazette on 8 December. Lula called for the creation of an international roadmap to move away from fossil fuels during a leaders' summit only a few days before the UN Cop 30 climate summit. That led to over 80 countries supporting a call for a roadmap to be included in final agreements at Cop 30. But the proposal did not make it to the summit's final decision. Instead, the Cop 30 presidency pledged to create a roadmap on the issue outside of official negotiations. Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said recently that an initial draft of roadmap could be ready by April , when Colombia is set to host a global summit on the topic . Energy transition fund Lula also requested the creation of a draft resolution to "propose financing mechanisms to implement an energy transition policy", which would include creating an energy transition fund financed "by a portion of government revenues from oil and gas exploration". The ministries and chief of staff will also have 60 days from 5 December to draft this resolution. Lula had also asked oil and mining firms to pay their fair share of climate financing during a speech at Cop 30. This comes after similar efforts at previous climate summits. An initiative from the Cop 29 presidency called for a climate fund, capitalized with voluntary contributions from oil, coal and gas-producing countries and companies, to support developing economies in addressing climate change. But the fund was never set up and the topic slid from the agenda. Brazilian state-controlled oil firm Petrobras did not answer Argus ' requests for comments on the topic. Mining giant Vale declined to comment. But Brazil's oil, gas and biofuels institute IBP "recognizes the importance of creating a fund to finance energy transition and climate change projects and understands that the oil and gas sector can and should be part of the solution for this process", it told Argus . Brazil's oil and gas sector contributes with R325bn ($60.85bn)/yr in taxes and "part of this amount should be directed towards climate finance and a fair and efficient energy transition process", IBP said. But for that it is necessary to maintain oil and gas production, it said. Brazil has been steadily increasing its oil production. It produced 4.03mn b/d of crude in October , a 23pc increase from the same month in 2024, data from hydrocarbons regulator ANP show. The country has plans to expand oil production to 5.3mn b/d by 2030, according to energy research bureau Epe, hinging on new exploratory frontiers such as the southern Pelotas basin and the environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. IBP also argues that Brazil's oil sector already faces a large tax burden, with 66pc of all crude destined for the payment of taxes, fees and royalties. "We want to and will contribute, but it's necessary to point out that there's no way to create more burdens on the sector's supply chain", it said. The group argues that the fund's financing should come from the redistribution of current government oil and gas revenues. "Increasing taxation on oil and gas exploration and production could make future projects unfeasible," it said. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Country focus

Cop: Denmark commits to new 2035 climate target


17/11/25
Country focus
17/11/25

Cop: Denmark commits to new 2035 climate target

London, 17 November (Argus) — Denmark has committed to a new, "very ambitious" climate target for 2035, to cut emissions by 82pc by 2035, from 1990 levels, the country's climate minister Lars Aagaard said today at the UN Cop 30 climate summit. Denmark was expected to communicate a 2035 target this year. It has a legally-binding target to reduce emissions by 70pc by 2030, from the same 1990 baseline. This new target for 2035 will be "binding", Aagaard said today. Independent advisory body the Danish Council on Climate Change previously found that under the country's current climate policy, projections indicate that Denmark would achieve emissions reductions of 78pc by 2035, from 1990 levels. Denmark's new target for 2035 goes beyond the EU's aim for the same timeframe. The bloc earlier this month finally reached agreement on climate goals for 2035 and 2040. It plans to cut emissions by 66.25-72.5pc by 2035, from 1990 levels. Denmark holds the rotating EU Council presidency until the end of the year. Aagaard has thus overseen much of the bloc's discussions of and decisions on new climate targets. Signatories to the Paris climate agreement are expected to establish new climate goals and submit plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), every five years, under the terms of the accord. Countries and jurisdictions are currently submitting NDCs for 2035, although these lack ambition to hit Paris-aligned targets . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate


10/11/25
Country focus
10/11/25

Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate

Houston, 10 November (Argus) — California is "doubling down" on its climate policies and goals to mitigate the impact of policy shifts by US president Donald Trump, California state senator Josh Becker (D) said at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil. Becker indicated the state is still moving forward on its response to climate change, despite ongoing opposition from the federal government, including to the state's ability to regulate vehicle emissions, in a discussion on Monday around California's climate leadership under the Trump administration. Becker touted the continued emissions reductions for California's economy, which fell 3pc to 360.4mn metric tonnes (t) in 2023 from the prior year, primarily around transportation, the state's largest emitting sector, according to state data released last week. But California is still looking to keep momentum going, including reducing vehicle emissions after the Trump administration signed three congressional resolutions earlier this year to repeal EPA waivers for the state's own tailpipe CO2 rules. "Even though they took away our waiver to regulate transportation, we are now working with our air resources board to come up with legislation for next year to figure out a way around that," Becker said. The EPA previously granted a waiver allowing California to ban gas-powered vehicle sales by model year 2035, known as Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), along with mandates for zero-emission truck sales and more-stringent nitrogen oxide emission standards during former-president Joe Biden's administration. California, as part of a state coalition, is in ongoing legal disputes with the federal government and automotive manufacturers over the removal of its tailpipe waivers. But while the courts deliberate, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is weighing measures the state could take to keep the transition away from fossil fuel-based vehicles on track. CARB plans to consider adopting emergency regulations that would allow it to use tailpipe regulations built on previous federal waivers in a hearing later this month. California has had some climate successes this year despite federal headwinds, including the state legislature's extension in September of its "cap-and-invest" program to 2045. The program, which was previously set to end in 2030, will bring in roughly $5bn/yr that California can use for investments in programs and policies targeting emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience, Becker said. Becker held up the growing portfolio of clean electricity within the state, now 70pc from zero-emission sources, and the CARB's development of corporate climate disclosures as part of the state's ongoing climate policy efforts. California is seeking a 40pc reduction in emissions, compared to 1990 levels, statewide by 2030, and net-zero emissions in 2045. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Canada set to scrap oil and gas emissions cap


04/11/25
Country focus
04/11/25

Canada set to scrap oil and gas emissions cap

Calgary, 4 November (Argus) — Canada is prepared to scrap its planned oil and gas emissions cap provided other technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) grow "at scale", the government said today. A proposed cap-and-trade system to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its oil and gas sector by 35pc compared to 2019 levels is likely to be abandoned, according to the federal government's 2025 budget released on Tuesday. The budget unveiled by finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne in the House of Commons comes against a backdrop of significant uncertainty for the country. A lagging economy and punitive tariffs from the US have prompted Canadian politicians to rethink the country's industrial policy, including climate initiatives that the oil and gas sector says stifles investment. The oil and gas emissions cap would "no longer be required as it would have marginal value in reducing emissions" if there are effective carbon markets, enhanced oil and gas methane regulations and deployment at scale of technologies such as CCS, according to the budget. But as it stands, producers of oil, natural gas and liquefied natural gas will need to meet the emissions cap target by 2030-32, following a four-year phase-in from 2026-29. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario provincial governments have long opposed the proposal, with Alberta premier Danielle Smith arguing that it would have capped production in the province. Smith said in 2024 that the province would pursue a constitutional challenge against the federal cap in its provincial court. The sector produces the lion's share of Canada's emissions, at 208mn metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023, according to the latest federal data available. If built, Pathways Alliances' C$16.5bn ($12bn) CCS project could sock away up to 22mn t/yr of CO2 by 2030 and make a meaningful step in offsetting greenhouse gas emissions by Canada's oil and gas sector. Prime minister Mark Carney has said decarbonizing Canadian oil — found mostly from Alberta — is a key component in getting another crude pipeline approved to the Pacific coast. But an existing tanker ban on the northwest coast of British Columbia represents yet another impediment for any company interested in building such a pipeline. The government also plans to update the controversial greenwashing law that came into effect in June 2024, according to Tuesday's budget. Oil and gas companies said the law is both vague, invites "meritless litigation" and prohibits discussion on their climate-related investments and plans. Carney's Liberal party hold a minority in the house — 169 of 343 seats — and will need support of other parties to pass the budget. By Brett Holmes and Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

New Zealand announces ETS, climate law changes


04/11/25
Country focus
04/11/25

New Zealand announces ETS, climate law changes

London, 4 November (Argus) — The New Zealand government announced on Tuesday draft changes to the emissions trading scheme (NZ ETS), including provisions that will help recognize carbon removal in the future, as well as changes to the climate change response act. Among the draft NZ ETS proposal are changes in how the government reviews companies' industrial allowance allocations, which is aimed at reducing barriers for firms to invest in decarbonization projects. The ETS settings decisions will become a biennial process going forward, instead of the current annual review, although this new rule will not affect the annual decision planned for 2026. The government is also removing a provision within the country's climate change act that requires NZ ETS unit volumes and price control regulations to accord with the nationally determined contributions under the UN's Paris Agreement on climate change. Changes to the operation of the ETS scheme include: adding the import of carbon dioxide in the NZ ETS; administrative changes to penalty repayment rules managed by the environmental protection authority; allowing flexibility for foresters to re-establish forests after significant disruptions such as severe weather events; and minor adjustments such as extending deadlines after major disruptions and allowing for discretion to waive ETS penalties in some instances. The government has also been "exploring opportunities to recognize and reward non-forestry removals" and is "progressing work" on releasing an assessment framework for carbon removals which will guide developers on the scientific evidence needed to gain removals credits and clarify the pathway for crediting new activities in the ETS. It is also working to amend the climate change law to add "carbon removal activities" as an activity that can be recognized under the NZ ETS — although this change would not outright grant recognition but rather pave the path for this happening in the future, it said. The government is also updating the guidance for the voluntary carbon markets in 2026 and stakeholders will be able to submit projects for assessment in the first half of 2026. The New Zealand government said on 4 November it was making these changes to "ensure" the climate change law "is working well and as intended." These follow the completion of a review earlier this year. It delayed the due date for government organizations to become carbon neutral to 2050, from 2025 which was "too soon" to meet this target. While buying offset credits could have been an alternative to achieve this, there are not enough such credits in the local market available to meet such demand, it said. The Climate Change Commission will no longer be required to advise the government on emissions reduction plans (ERPs), although the commission will continue to provide advice on the five-yearly emissions budgets and the annual emissions reduction monitoring report — with the latter's timing brought forward to April, to align it with the timing of the annual release of emissions projections. The new rules will also allow more flexibility on the process for amending or replacing ERPs and the related policies and strategies, by removing the requirement to consult on such changes. The amendment bill to the climate change act will be submitted in 2026, although the change to remove the requirement for ETS settings to accord with NDCs will be adopted by the end of the current year, the government said. A separate amendment bill will also be introduced and adopted before the end of 2025 to bring recently announced updates to the 2050 biogenic methane target into law, it said. By Erisa Senerdem Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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