Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
Follow the key developments in energy transition field with our Net zero page and keep up to date with ongoing coverage of these issues by following Argus Media on LinkedIn and on X.
News
EU MEPs reject urgency procedure for 2040 climate goal
EU MEPs reject urgency procedure for 2040 climate goal
Brussels, 9 July (Argus) — Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) today rejected a motion put forward by the centre-left S&D group yesterday to fast-track discussions on the EU's 2040 climate targets, after far-right group the Patriots for Europe was given the lead on these discussions. MEPs rejected the urgency procedure motion — which would have sped up discussions on the European Commission's proposal to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90pc by 2040 from 1990 levels — with 379 votes against and 300 in favour. Dutch Renew member Gerben-Jan Gerbrandy, in favour of the proposal, argued that an EU 2040 target will contribute to the success of Cop 30 UN climate talks in Belem, Brazil. "The proposal to amend the European climate law has only been tabled last week, which is very, very late," Gerbrandy said. The urgency procedure would have allowed for faster debate, amendments and votes at committee and plenary level, according to German S&D member Tiemo Wolken. He noted that parliament has previously used the procedure to change environmental and climate laws, and recently to amend the protected status of wolves. Wolken's S&D had signed the motion with the Greens and Left. Parliament's largest group, the centre-right EPP, did not support the motion. Dutch EPP member Jeroen Lenaers called for realism. "We're not voting today on the climate law. We are voting on which procedure we're going to use," he said. He sees no justification as the climate proposals were only recently put forward by commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. "We want to work alongside the council in a parallel process," Lenaers said. EU states and parliament will have to adopt the final legal text of any amendments to the bloc's 2021 climate law. The text currently contains an obligation for the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and an intermediate net GHG cut of at least 55pc by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. Austrian Green Lena Schilling said the EPP has opened the door for climate change deniers to further delay and undermine Europe's climate protection. "Right-wing extremist climate change deniers in powerful negotiating positions are a threat to the fight against the climate crisis," Schilling said. The Patriots group has been selected to choose one of its members to draw up and negotiate legal amendments following the commission's proposal. "The left's attempt to remove our influence on EU climate negotiations has been voted down," Danish member Anders Vistisen said. He called for a "realistic and responsible" climate policy rather than "[campaigner] Greta Thunberg rhetoric and climate nonsense". Vistisen also indicates that the commission's proposed 90pc GHG reduction is " not going to happen ". By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU Parliament disputes 2040 climate file
EU Parliament disputes 2040 climate file
Brussels, 8 July (Argus) — The European parliament will vote tomorrow on whether or not to use an urgency procedure, proposed by a group led by centre-left S&D, in examining the legal proposals to set a 2040 climate target for the bloc, after far-right Patriots for Europe got to lead the talks on the goal. The discussions overshadowed EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra's presentation of the proposal. A group including the centre-left S&D group, the Greens and the Left have put forward an urgency procedure to have more say in the 2040 discussions, after the far-right Patriots for Europe group has been given the task of leading the work on amending the bloc's climate law to set an EU-wide 2040 target. The commission's proposal involves a goal of reducing EU emissions by 90pc by 2040 from 1990 levels. The parliament's largest centre-right EPP group did not back the emergency procedure. "The Left, Renew and Green activists are trying to manipulate the process and seize control," said Anders Vistisen, a Danish member of the Patriots for Europe group. The urgency procedure would give greater powers in discussing the 2040 proposals to the chair of parliament's environment committee, Antonio Decaro, an Italian MEP from the centre-left S&D group. They'll probably need some EPP members," an official said. The Patriots group includes parties such as Hungary's Fidesz, France's Rassemblement National, Italy's Lega Nord and Spain's Vox. Vistisen said the Patriots group completely rejects the "unrealistic and ideological" commission approach. "The commission wants to push through a 90pc reduction. We're making it clear — that's not going to happen." Former environment committee chair Pascal Canfin now expects greater co-operation between "pro-European" groups. "It will force the pro-European groups to work together to carry this key proposal to an agreement before the [UN climate conference] Cop 30 in Belem," said Canfin, a French liberal. The dispute overshadowed Hoekstra's presentation of the 2040 proposals to parliament. "What we do need, particularly for these type of policies, are solid majorities. And yes, sometimes that takes more time than you anticipate beforehand," Hoekstra said. Speaking for the EPP, Lidia Pereira called for flexibility and warned against de-industrialisation. "More important than setting a numerical target is making sure we stay on the right course," Pereira said. The commission's proposal includes several possible "flexibilities" for the target, including allowing a "limited" contribution of international carbon credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement to count towards the goal from 2036, and the use of domestic permanent carbon removals in the EU emissions trading system. "The proposals for flexibility are just green colonialism. It will help rich countries such as the Netherlands or Germany, large multinational corporations and poor countries and small companies will pay," said Alexandr Vondra, Czech member of the conservative ECR group. German S&D member Tiemo Wolken criticised the commission for coming forward with a 2040 proposal "weeks" before international climate talks in Belem, Brazil. "There's not enough time in the European Parliament and in the council to discuss it," said Wolken. The summit is scheduled for November. "The 2040 climate now is in the hands of the far right, the people who deny the climate crisis," said Austrian Green Lena Schilling, noting the importance of the urgency procedure to save the target. "We don't need 85pc, not 87pc — minimum 90pc," Schilling said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Multilateralism should steer climate finance: Brics
Multilateralism should steer climate finance: Brics
Sao Paulo, 7 July (Argus) — Developed countries must fully engage in climate finance to support developing countries trying to meet Paris agreement goals, top Brazilian officials said at the Brics summit held in Rio de Janeiro on 6-7 July. "One decade after the Paris agreement, [the world] lacks resources for a fair and planned transition," Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. "Developing countries will be the most affected by losses and damages, while they are also the ones that have fewer ways to fund mitigation and adaptation," Lula da Silva said during his keynote address Monday. The Brics summit discussed climate finance in anticipation of the UN Cop 30 climate summit , which will be also be held Brazil, in November. The group issued a declaration that reinforced its commitment to uphold multilateralism as a solution for climate actions, while it also emphasized developed countries' responsibility towards developing countries to financially enable just transition pathways and sustainable development aligned with the Paris agreement. The Cop 29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024 managed to reach an agreement to allocate $300bn/yr in resources for climate action. But delegates to the upcoming UN Cop 30 summit are targeting at least $1.3bn/yr in public and private funds to tackle climate change, focusing especially on countries that are already dealing with extreme weather conditions and lack financial resources to mitigate it. The Brics also announced a memorandum of understanding on the Brics Carbon Markets Partnership focused on capacity building and multinational cooperation to support climate strategies such as mitigation efforts and emergency resource mobilization. The declaration opposes unilateral protectionist measures, arguing that they "deliberately disrupt the global supply and production chains and distort competition." Climate justice, the fight against desertification, strengthened climate diplomacy and subsidies to environmental services were the main topics of discussion during the Brics summit, Brazil's environment minister Marina Silva said. Brazil will launch its own initiatives to promote climate finance in Cop 30. One program already launched is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) fund that aims to raise $125bn to preserve 1bn hectares of global tropical forests across 80 developing countries. Brics' development bank NDB will target 40pc of its investments to promote sustainable development, such as energy transition. The bank has approved $40bn in investments for clean energy, environment protection and water supply, it said last week. Brazil accounts for $6.4bn of total investments, gathering resources to 29 projects under climate actions, according to the institution. Brazil currently holds the presidency of the Brics, which also includes Russia, China, India and South Africa. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Iran are also members. Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Cuba, Uganda, Malaysia, Nigeria, Vietnam and Uzbekistan act as partner nations. Heated speech During his keynote address, Lula criticized the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as an institution that promotes unilateralism and stressed his support for reforming institutions of the UN to promote multilateralism and political equity for developing countries. He also mentioned that 65 of the biggest banks in the world committed to a $869bn investment to the fossil fuels sector last year. "Market incentives run contrary to sustainability," he said. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
NGOs pitch Amazon preservation funding to Cop 30
NGOs pitch Amazon preservation funding to Cop 30
Sao Paulo, 4 July (Argus) — Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Brazil's northern Amazon region set up a plan to draw investments to conservation, restoration and sustainable development in the biome. The plan — submitted to the UN Cop 30 climate summits presidency on 4 July — suggests redirecting subsidies from high-greenhouse gas emission activities to sustainable projects and promoting environmental services, as well as fighting against illegal economic practices such as animal trafficking and property speculation of public lands, according to the NGOs. The Amazon gathered around $5.8bn in investments between 2013-22, while it is worth at least $317bn/yr in ecosystem services, such as climate regulation — vital for agriculture and hydroelectric power generation — and biodiversity, according to the World Bank. The institution also estimated that $7bn would be necessary to preserve the biome against deforestation and ward it off from the tipping point, when it would suffer permanent damage like desertification and severe changes in the rainfall pattern. Main financial resources for the plan may come from the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) initiative, which Brazil launched in 2023 to raise funds to protect tropical forests and combat deforestation, the NGOs said. Considering the program's annual raising of $5bn, the groups expect that $2bn of it will fund the Amazon forest preservation. Another proposal includes the creation of a Global Declaration for Amazon to engage countries enrolled in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in contributing to strengthen the biome against climate change. Brazil will host UN Cop 30 climate summit in November, when it expects to deliver a roadmap to increase global climate finance to $1.3 trillion/yr. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Bonn climate talks leave mountain to climb for Belem
Bonn climate talks leave mountain to climb for Belem
Deepening divisions between developed and developing countries promise to make Cop 30 an arduous summit, writes Rhys Talbot Paris, 27 June (Argus) — Progress in technical discussions at the UN climate conference in Bonn, Germany, still leaves much work for the incoming Brazilian presidency ahead of November's Cop 30 summit in Belem if it is to deliver a strong outcome on emission cuts. After a rocky start in Bonn this month, with a two-day fight over the agenda, negotiators delivered texts across a number of areas relating to emission reductions. The Brazilian Cop takes place 10 years after the Paris agreement, in which states agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C, and two years after Cop 28 in Dubai, when they undertook the global stocktake (GST) to measure progress on reaching Paris goals and pledged to phase out fossil fuels. The annual Bonn talks are intended to allow negotiators to prepare the ground for political decisions to be made at Cop. But this year, even those discussions that have advanced well have tended to produce large texts with many mutually exclusive options in brackets, reflecting incompatible positions that will have to be worked out by policy makers between now and the end of the Belem Cop. The main arena for considering fossil fuels, a discussion of the meaning of the GST, has left a heavily divided text to Belem. Developed countries have argued for a longer, more extensive process, while some parties — including China, India and Saudi Arabia — have tried to limit the scope, duration and outputs of the sessions. And the texts do not directly address the elephant in the room — countries are this year delivering their nationally determined contribution (NDC) documents laying out their plans to cut emissions. Those plans are likely to be insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. And the Brazilian presidency will have to grasp the initiative to find a way to ensure advances on the Paris and Dubai goals. The leader's summit to be held immediately before Cop could offer a chance for movement. The release of a keenly awaited synthesis report of NDCs on 24 October could offer a spur to this summit. "People will want a reaction from our leaders" when the report comes out, Cop 30 executive director Ana Toni said. But Brazil rejects the idea of a cover decision at the end of Belem as a home for discussion of fossil fuels. And the presidency has been reluctant to attack fossil fuels head on. "This is not an item of negotiation, the GST is," Toni said. Brazil must wrangle a fractious conference including major fossil fuel producers such as India, Saudi Arabia and Russia which resist any action on the topic, as well as facing criticism over its own plans to increase oil and gas production . Climate finance fight Climate finance permeated the Bonn talks, with developing countries trying to steer various work programmes towards the issue, while developed countries attempted to limit discussion. Developing countries said the finance settlement reached last year at Baku does not meet developed countries' obligations under the Paris agreement, as well as being far short of actual needs. And in parallel, they expressed their frustration with carbon border adjust mechanism (CBAM)-type arrangements planned for the EU and UK, and projected for Canada. Developed countries see these as essential to protecting their domestic industry and preventing carbon leakage, given their high carbon costs, but developing countries say the costs will fall mostly on them. These two issues appear likely to crop up again as stumbling blocks at Belem that the presidency will have to tackle with political engagement beforehand. Brazil has promoted Cop 30 as an "implementation" Cop, with no one particular agenda item dominating. This gives the country the arduous task of having to make concrete progress on many items, rather than focus on one headline target. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Coal transition group optimistic on 2040 phase-out
Q&A: Coal transition group optimistic on 2040 phase-out
Singapore, 20 June (Argus) — The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) was formed by the Canadian and UK governments to bring together the main actors working on the transition away from coal. About a third of the world's governments are now members of the PPCA, as well as financial institutions with over $12 trillion of assets under management, sub-national governments, utilities and system operators. Argus spoke to PPCA head of secretariat Julia Skorupska about how achievable a coal phase-out is, and the organisation's strategy to help achieve this. Edited highlights follow. What are some of the unique challenges Asia faces compared with other regions when it comes to phasing out coal? Asia is very dependent on coal. I think it's becoming increasingly clear the benefit that countries in the region see from the transition from coal to clean energy. It's a region that is very focused on manufacturing in many places, and I think people really see the kind of opportunities of being able to demonstrate they have a clean supply chain. But at the same time, it's a region in which coal power plants tend to be pretty young. The average age is 15 years for coal power plants in the region, and their expected lifespan is still around 15 years, maybe more. So there are debts that still need to be paid off, often very long-term power purchase agreements that people need to exit in order to transition away from these coal power plants. The other thing that is really striking is the region has very fast-growing demand for energy, so we need to think about how we're going to meet this demand, and obviously maintaining economic growth is a real priority for the region. How does the PPCA plan its strategy for Asia, given that there are huge variances across the region in terms of energy needs? There are countries that are kind of really forging ahead with the transition to clean energy, like Vietnam, where you see a lot of investment going there, and the Philippines, which is doing a lot to try and bring on renewables and has been a real leader in terms of encouraging companies to think about how they would phase out their coal power plants early. There's the question about where countries are at, but also what their market structure is. Is it a state-owned market structure? Is it a structure with lots of independent power producers (IPPs)? We understand it's not a one-size-fits-all answer. The fundamental thing is that you need to have a clear plan. You need to have a level playing field for renewables. We have tried to come up with some recommendations, for example carbon pricing, which might work best in some of the deregulated markets. And where you have a kind of single buyer and a state-owned enterprise, you actually have some opportunities to leverage off that coherent market to make a transition more quickly. How do you think the presidency of the UN's Cop 30 climate conference this year is going to approach the question of transitioning away from coal and fossil fuels, after it was sort of abandoned last year? What kind of outcome is the PPCA after at Cop 30? I was in Brussels last week and the presidency held a gathering to get ideas on what should be on the energy agenda. I think their focus is very much on this being the Cop of implementation. This is the Cop where we're demonstrating that we are delivering the global stocktake [which measures progress against the goals of the 2015 Paris accord]. So not only on tripling renewables, not only on doubling energy efficiency, but also on the transition away from fossil fuels. At Cop 28 we launched a coal transition commission. We now have recommendations, which we launched at Cop 29, so I think the focus now is on demonstrating that we're delivering. Cop is taking place after people update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which is another opportunity to demonstrate implementation. So we're very much focusing on encouraging countries to reflect a commitment to no new coal in their NDCs as a first step towards making that plan for transition and securing the investment they need. What are some of your strategic priorities over the next couple of years? Really supporting southeast Asia to move ahead with a transition from coal to clean power is a key priority for us. And under the coal transition commission, we're working on the question of how to scale. Now we've had the first pilot projects, how do you support transitions out of coal? What can we learn from those first pilot projects? It seems to me like the answer that we're getting is that there actually are solutions that could be scaled. For example, there are a number of ways in which you can use private finance to bring forward the retirement of coal power plants, particularly in more market-oriented situations with lots of IPPs. The transition will be a process, and it's a region where people are often using less gas during the transition than in other parts of the world. And so what is the role of coal as they integrate renewables, and how do they ramp down the coal? So one of the things we'll be looking at is how we're using coal to support that integration of fossil fuels, and how are we making sure that people are able to access the finance they need to make the adjustments to the system as they ramp down coal on the pathway towards phase-out. The final area we'll be looking at is just transitions, where it feels like there's lots of good practice now — like some of the lessons learned in Indonesia from the Cirebon project, and good practice in Australia — to help us think about what are the kind of lessons that can be learned as we develop new coal retirement mechanisms to make sure that just transition is really at the heart of those. What is the realistic timeline you envision for a global coal phase-out? We should be targeting a 2040 phase-out of coal to be on a pathway aligned with keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5°C. A lot of countries aren't yet there, in terms of being able to think that they can maintain a secure supply of energy, meet their growing energy needs and phase out coal by 2040. Our advice to people is make your plan, set a phase-out date, and then you will find that probably you can move that forward. Don't panic if your phase-out date when you initially set it is going to be beyond 2040, the key is to set that phase-out date. And then the community can come together to help you to think about how you move it forward. Let's focus on what we can we think about — we are going to transition out of coal, everyone is committed to accelerating the phase-down. Let's come up with a plan and then we can improve the plan as we go along. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Stranded assets still an issue for EU majors’ investors
Stranded assets still an issue for EU majors’ investors
Shell says its LNG plans ensure a resilient investment strategy, but some shareholders are not convinced, writes Jon Mainwaring London, 23 May (Argus) — Investors in Europe's oil majors are still not convinced that the firms' updated strategies — particularly their upstream growth plans — are fit for the energy transition, even if the pace of that transition looks set to slow. Societal sentiment has shifted in recent years to prioritise energy security concerns, but questions remain about the robustness of oil and gas investments and the risk of ending up holding stranded assets in a world in which fossil fuel use declines rapidly. The 2025 season of oil major annual shareholder meetings resumed this week at London's Heathrow airport — selected by Shell as a venue because of its restrictions on the types of environmental protest allowed there. Despite this provision, Shell still faced a grilling from representatives of organisations as diverse as Christian Climate Action and the Union of Concerned Scientists. The main focus this year was on Shell's LNG strategy and the thinking behind the LNG outlook report it used to inform its strategy. Ahead of the meeting, think-tank Carbon Tracker compiled a set of questions for shareholders to ask Shell about its LNG plans. It pointed out that Shell's strategy centres heavily on LNG, with an aim to grow LNG sales by 4-5pc/yr through to 2030 and the intention of still being a leading integrated gas and LNG business into the 2040s. This will expose investors to "a significant risk of lower returns, given existing and under-construction LNG capacity meets global demand to 2040 under all [International Energy Agency] transition scenarios", Carbon Tracker says. Carbon Tracker queried how Shell's LNG growth plans fit with its commitment to become a net zero company by 2050. Given the risk that carbon capture and storage will fail to become commercially and technologically viable at scale, Shell's plans are incompatible with a scenario that sees global temperatures rise by 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels, let alone a 1.5°C warming scenario, it says. Faced with these questions and a resolution put forward by investor advocacy group the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR) seeking more detail about its LNG plans, Shell's board members pointed out that the company uses a variety of scenarios and projections beyond those provided by the IEA. "We see a phase of continuing growth, particularly in the use of gas and especially in LNG, that we think is appropriate to invest in," Shell chairman Andrew Mackenzie said. Shell's LNG outlook projects 60pc growth in global demand for LNG by 2040, driven largely by economic growth in Asia, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport, and higher gas demand for power generation because of the expected boom in artificial intelligence data centres. All in moderation About 46pc of the projects expected to be sanctioned by Shell are incompatible with a moderate transition in which the world warms by 1.7°C, if business carries on as usual, Carbon Tracker says. This is slightly worse than the think-tank's projections for BP and TotalEnergies. But chief executive Wael Sawan insists that "this is a very resilient investment strategy", because most of the net present value in Shell's projects will be realised before 2040. ACCR's resolution asking for further details about the LNG strategy failed to be approved at the meeting, but more than a fifth of shareholder votes supported it — a similar proportion to votes cast in favour of climate-connected resolutions at Shell meetings earlier this decade. So while this group of concerned shareholders is not growing, it is also not going away, suggesting Shell needs to improve the communication of its investment case. Shell's board appears to have acknowledged this and has promised to provide more detail about how its LNG business reconciles with its broader strategy and climate commitments within six months. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity
Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity
Transition aligning with energy security and more Chinese climate leadership may reinforce co-operation despite the US withdrawal, writes Georgia Gratton London, 25 April (Argus) — The UN, IEA and countries including the UK and Brazil — which hosts this year's UN Cop 30 climate summit — stepped up efforts this week to demonstrate common ground and build unity on climate action and the energy transition. Organisations and countries are looking to capitalise on areas of commonality in order to preserve climate action, as the US administration repeatedly pushes back on measures to tackle climate change and moves to curb the energy transition. A virtual meeting convened this week by UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, drew 17 world leaders to commit to keeping climate action a key priority. "Leaders need reassurance that they're not acting alone," a senior UN official says. "Collaboration and multilateralism still matter," a senior Brazilian official says. Cop 30, which will take place in November in the Amazonian city of Belem, will "have a different dynamic", the official adds. "We want to prove that multilateralism is not only about negotiating documents… but about making them real." China's president, Xi Jinping, participated in this week's high-level meeting, the UN confirmed. While the US — the world's second-highest emitter — has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, China is continuing to step forward on climate action. It remains the highest-emitting country by some way, but this week reiterated a commitment to a new climate plan for the period to 2035, covering "all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases", Guterres said. The EU this week noted China's co-operation at Cop 29 — where it was widely viewed as projecting leadership on climate — setting the scene for new climate alliances. While the US government pushes back on clean energy and climate action, support for the energy transition remains strong at sub-national level, from many US state governors, and from the private sector . A poll from three NGOs, including the UK's E3G, this week found that of nearly 1,500 business executives — including in the US — 97pc supported a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The majority of the world has held firm on climate commitments. Heads of state and government of jurisdictions including the EU, several G20 economies and developing nations committed to submitting "ambitious and robust [climate] plans", Guterres said after the meeting. Renewable security Organisations and countries have been careful to underline that different national circumstances will mean that jurisdictions take different approaches to tackling climate change. Although this is a key tenet of the Paris agreement, it also remains a bone of contention in multilateral talks. But the co-hosts of this week's energy security summit, the UK government and energy watchdog the IEA, put the issue front and centre. "Different pathways for different nations should be respected," UK energy minister Ed Miliband told the summit. The almost 60 governments that the UK and IEA hosted will have "different approaches to energy security based on their nation's circumstances and policies", IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's determination to double down on its energy transition, but also extended a nod to the US for its LNG supply as the bloc pivoted away from imports of Russian gas. But many note that achieving energy security is well aligned with a transition to renewable energy. The UK's path "is a hard-headed approach to the role of low carbon power as the route to energy security", Miliband said, while the cost of renewable power is now the cheapest option for the majority of the world. "The pathway out of climate hell is paved by renewables," Guterres said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Country focus
Brazil’s Amazon oil dilemma
Brazil’s Amazon oil dilemma
Petrobras might win this battle, but it faces tougher environmental regulations in the future, writes Constance Malleret Rio de Janeiro, 23 May (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras this week moved closer to gaining authorisation to drill in a promising new oil frontier off the northern coast, but environmental watchdog Ibama has cast doubt over the future of other exploration permits there. Brazil's equatorial margin, and particularly the northernmost Foz do Amazonas basin, is Petrobras' main bet to replenishing its oil reserves — currently set to decline from the start of the next decade. The offshore region is believed to contain massive crude deposits similar to those found off Guyana, with Foz do Amazonas alone possibly holding 10bn bl of recoverable crude, according to energy research bureau EPE. But obtaining the regulatory green light to drill in this environmentally sensitive area is proving a lengthy process. Environmentalists worry about the impact oil exploration will have on the region's little-studied coral reefs, indigenous communities and ecosystems. Ibama denied Petrobras a permit to drill off the coast of Amapa state in May 2023. The oil firm promptly appealed but, two years later, the process continues. The watchdog's experts recommended it reject Petrobras' request at least twice in recent months. But mounting political pressure for approval — including from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who publicly accused the agency of working against the government — led Ibama head Rodrigo Agostinho on 19 May to approve Petrobras' emergency plan to protect fauna in the event of an oil spill. Petrobras will soon run a simulation of the plan, which it describes as the final step towards obtaining the sought-after drilling licence. Adding to the firm's urgency to secure the permit is the fact that the contract for the probe it plans to use in block FZA-M-59 expires in October. Behind the controversy over this single permit lies a politically fraught debate on whether the Brazilian government can reconcile its push for new oil exploration with its climate ambitions. In its decision this month, Ibama outlined important caveats on the future of exploration in Foz do Amazonas, where Petrobras holds the rights to five other blocks. The watchdog recalled the "challenging" environmental licensing process for drilling in Foz do Amazonas in 2013, when hydrocarbons regulator ANP first auctioned exploration rights there. Round and round Future permits are unlikely to be awarded without a more complex and lengthy environmental study, known as an AAS, which was not required from Petrobras this time, Ibama warned. That may cool oil firms' interest for the region in ANP's next licensing round, due on 17 June, when 47 blocks in Foz do Amazonas will be up for grabs. Environmental groups last month called for the upcoming oil auction to be suspended and threatened to take the issue to court. Oil proponents, including Lula and much of his government, say exploring new oil frontiers is a matter of economic and energy security, arguing that oil revenue can fund the energy transition. Critics point out that there is currently no framework in place to guarantee this. The oil industry would support a discussion on how to channel resources towards mitigation efforts, oil chamber IPB president Roberto Ardenghy tells Argus . "We are suggesting, if we find and produce oil [in the equatorial margin], a different distribution of royalties, to channel resources into fighting the real scourge of Brazilian emissions", namely deforestation, he says. Finance minister Fernando Haddad is in favour of "research" in the new oil frontier, but any hydrocarbon discoveries should not be an excuse for Brazil to delay its energy transition, he said in an interview broadcast two days before the Ibama decision. "Humanity needs to relinquish oil," he said. Brazil: Foz do Amazonas blocks Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks
Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks
Rio de Janeiro, 20 May (Argus) — Brazil is arguing that its developing country status allows it to consolidate its position as a major crude producer and is likely to lean on developed countries during much-awaited discussions on moving away from fossil fuels at the UN Cop 30 climate conference in November. Attempts to reach an ambitious outcome on mitigation — cutting greenhouse gas emissions — and actions to move away from fossil fuels were quashed at Cop 29 in Baku last year, and all eyes are on Brazil to bridge divides on this issue . Cop 30 president-designate Andre Correa do Lago has failed to address fossil fuels in his two letters outlining priorities for the summit, but members of the Cop 30 team have indicated the issue will be on the agenda. With geopolitical tensions and energy security questions redirecting government priorities away from the energy transition, the outlook is more challenging than when Cop parties agreed the global stocktake (GST) conclusion on fossil fuels and energy in 2023 . But Brazil is well-placed to take the lead. It is a respected player in climate discussions and has one of the cleanest energy mix — 49pc of its energy and 89pc of its electricity comes from renewables. Its own mitigation efforts prioritize slashing deforestation, which accounts for the lion's share of Brazil's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Non-profit World Resources Institute Brazil describes the emissions reduction target in Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan — as "reasonable to insufficient" and notes that energy emissions are expected to increase by 20pc in the decade to 2034. Its NDC avoids any concrete steps towards winding down crude. After you The government's view on fossil fuels is that Brazil's developing country status, the oil and gas industry's importance in its economy and comparatively low fossil fuel emissions justify pushing ahead with oil production. Correa do Lago said earlier that Belem was picked as a venue for Cop 30 to show that Brazil is still a developing country, adding that any decision on oil and gas should be taken by Brazil's citizens. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that oil revenue will fund the energy transition. It is a position that has earned Brazil accusations of hypocrisy from environmentalists at home and abroad, but which also places it as a possible model for other hydrocarbon-producer developing countries. Brazil's diplomatic tradition of pragmatically balancing seemingly opposing positions could serve it well here, said Gabriel Brasil, a senior analyst focused on climate at Control Risks, a consultancy. He does not see Brazil's attempt to balance climate leadership with continued oil production as hurting its standing among fellow parties or energy investors. Civil society stakeholders hope pre-Cop meetings will help bring clarity on how Brazil might broach the fossil fuel debate. Indigenous groups, which are set to be given more space at Cop, are demanding an end to fossil fuel extraction in the environmentally sensitive Foz do Amazonas offshore basin. Meanwhile, Brazilian state-owned Petrobras moved one step closer to being authorized to begin offshore drilling there . During meetings of the UN climate body — the UNFCCC — in Panama City this week, the Cop 30 presidency will present ideas for the summit "with a focus on the full implementation of the GST". But it has to wait for countries to update their NDCs to gauge what is achievable on mitigation. Only 20 have submitted new NDCs so far, with the deadline pushed back to September. Brazil's own NDC gives some clues. It welcomes the launch "of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" and reiterates that developed countries should take the lead. And a report commissioned by Brazil's oil chamber IBP and civil society organization ICS to be given to negotiators ranks Brazil as a "mover" in the transition away from oil and gas, ahead of "adapters" like India and Nigeria but behind "front-runners" Germany and the US. The research develops the idea of a country-based transition plan, using criteria such as energy security and institutional and social resilience, as well as oil and gas relevance. By Constance Malleret 2023 Brazil emissions sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024
Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024
Sao Paulo, 30 April (Argus) — Brazil's mines and energy ministry's (MME) energy transition spending shrank by 83pc in 2024 from the prior year, while resources for fossil fuel incentives remained unchanged, according to the institute of socioeconomic studies Inesc. The MME's energy transition budget was R141,413 ($24,980) in 2024, down from R835,237 in the year prior. MME had only two energy transition-oriented projects under its umbrella last year: biofuels industry studies and renewable power incentives, which represented a combined 0.002pc of its total R7bn budget. Still, despite available resources, MME did not approve any projects for renewable power incentives. It also only used 50pc of its budget for biofuel studies, Inesc said. Even as supply from non-conventional power sources advances , most spending in Brazil's grid revamp — including enhancements to better integrate solar and wind generation — comes from charges paid by consumers through power tariffs, Inesc said. Diverging energy spending Brazil's federal government also cut its energy transition budget for 2025 by 17pc from last year and created a new energy transition program that also pushes for increased fossil fuel usage. The country's energy transition budget for 2025 is R3.64bn, down from R4.44bn in 2024. The new program — also under MME's umbrella — has a budget of around R10mn, with more than half of it destined to studies related to the oil and natural gas industry, Inesc said. A second MME program — which invests in studies in the oil, natural gas, products and biofuels sectors — has an approved budget of R53.1mn. The science and technology ministry is the only in Brazil that increased its energy transition spending for 2025, with R3.03bn approved, a near threefold hike from R800mn in 2024. Spending will focus on the domestic industry sector's energy transition, Inesc said. Climate activists have criticized Brazil for not planning to phase out fossil fuels before, including criticisms to the first letter written by the UN Cop 30 summit's president. The country will hold the summit in November in northern Para state. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada’s Liberals ahead on election homestretch
Canada’s Liberals ahead on election homestretch
Both parties push the need for new investment to tap non-US energy markets, but project permitting policy is a key differentiator, writes Brett Holmes Calgary, 25 April (Argus) — Canada's Liberal party is positioning itself to receive a fourth straight mandate on 28 April, but it must first fend off a late push by the Conservatives in an election campaign that has been closely watched by the energy sector. The Liberals have benefited from the selection of a new leader in Mark Carney last month, combined with a considerable foe to rally against — US president Donald Trump and his verbal and economic attacks on Canada. While campaigning, Carney has tried to keep the focus on Trump's annexation and economic threats, but momentum has seemingly stalled. The Liberals led the Conservatives by a 42:38 margin on 24 April, but this is three points less than 10 days earlier, according to poll aggregator 338Canada. The tight race has already motivated a record 7.3mn electors to cast their vote at advance polls, and the energy industry has kept a close eye on promises made by both Carney and his challenger, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Both agree that pivoting away from a hostile US is critical, and that new trade corridors to Canada's coasts are key to reaching more reliable partners. But executives from major Canadian energy companies point out that there is likely to be lower-hanging fruit that can attract investment in a country where productivity has been lagging its peers. Industry leaders have pleaded for government to "reset its policies", which Carney seems less inclined to do than Poilievre. Carney sees a future where foreign countries will demand less carbon-intensive oil and gas, meaning a proposed cap on the industry's emissions would be implemented as planned, and support for carbon capture projects would continue under a Liberal government. An overhaul of Canada's Impact Assessment Act is unnecessary, Carney says, suggesting the legislation sets major project proponents up for success because its rigour helps to avoid court battles. But the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (Capp) points to that legislation as the top reason why C$280bn ($200bn) of oil and gas projects were cancelled over the past decade. Repealing the law was among the "demands" Alberta premier Danielle Smith made to Carney in March, but the latter seems content to hang on to many of former prime minister Justin Trudeau's energy policies. Carney was born in Alberta , but familiarity has yet to translate into co-operative relations between federal and provincial government. Yet his desire to build new conventional energy projects marks a key departure from Trudeau. Build, baby build "I'm interested in getting energy infrastructure built," Carney said during the 18 April leaders' debate. "That means pipelines, that means carbon capture and storage, that means electricity grids." And the Liberals are prepared to use federal emergency powers, but consent from provinces would still be required. The Conservatives pitch an accelerated six-month regulatory review period to "unleash" Canada's energy so as to stand up to the likes of Trump from a position of strength. The Conservatives tout shovel-ready projects that would kick-start construction as soon as they are approved by a new government. Capp estimates that Canada has C$50bn of energy investment waiting approval. "For three Liberal terms, Canada has had the worst GDP per capita in the G7," Poilievre says. The National Bank of Canada says this primarily reflects Canada's lacklustre investment and productivity over the past decade. Canadian think-tank CD Howe Institute says this cycle can be corrected by a full overhaul of government policy, including the acceleration of permitting for major private-sector projects. Eliminating current and proposed Liberal policy would be among Poilievre's first moves to resurrect investment. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.