Overview

Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.

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02/02/26

Slow UN carbon market advance on removals

Slow UN carbon market advance on removals

Berlin, 2 February (Argus) — The emerging UN carbon market under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, Pacm, saw slow progress last week on draft rules for carbon removals accounting, as experts tasked with working on new Pacm methodologies convened at the UN climate arm's headquarters in Bonn, Germany. The panel made some decisions on the so-called reversal assessment tool, which aims to determine the number of Pacm credits to contribute to the market's reversal risk buffer account, acting as a form of insurance for removal projects. The tool will help calculate individual risk factors, combined risks and the reduction in reversal risk factors, based on any remediation measures implemented by activity proponents. A buffer factor, expressed as a percentage of credited carbon, would then be calculated, depending on the choices made by project proponents. The higher the percentage, the more credits must be set aside for an activity. The panel will also determine specific activity risks, with an initial focus on forest carbon storage, geological carbon storage and biochar. These are not only the most prevalent removal activities in the carbon market, but also dominate those transitioning from Pacm's precursor, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The panel and the Article 6.4 supervisory body were tasked by countries at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil in November with prioritising CDM transitions . The panel will consider other types of removal activities at a later stage. More progress was made last week on the draft rules for renewable electricity generation, on which the panel released a draft methodology for supervisory body approval. It would become the second approved Pacm methodology, if adopted. The first methodology for generating carbon credits, on flaring or use of landfill gas, is regarded as substantially stricter than its CDM predecessor. Pacm's downward adjustment factor ensures that baseline emissions decline more significantly over time than under the CDM. South Korea-based carbon project developer Ecoeye said under the Pacm landfill gas methodology, flaring-only projects carried out in host countries outside least developed countries are likely to experience a 52–76pc reduction in credited emission reductions, compared with CDM-based estimates, over a five-year period, while for electricity generation and heat production it projects a 34–42pc reduction. The potential third Pacm methodology to be adopted, on clean cooking, considers new submissions while carrying over some elements from an existing CDM methodology. Another methodology under consideration, on nitrous oxide abatement from nitric acid production, might also see a draft proposal at the next expert panel meeting in March. Six new Pacm methodologies in total are under consideration. The latest entry is on fertiliser production with renewables-based ammonia, for which a call for public input closed on 27 January. The panel is considering merging this methodology — the development of which was financed by the Germany-supported International Hydrogen Ramp-Up Programme — with another for ammonia production through electrolysis. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil groups seek fossil fuel phase-out: Correction


29/01/26
News
29/01/26

Brazil groups seek fossil fuel phase-out: Correction

Corrects date the government will deliver the new plan in the 4th paragraph. Story originally published 28 January. Sao Paulo, 29 January (Argus) — Brazil's path to phase out fossil fuels needs to focus on the power and industrial sectors and include ambitious goals that can reduce risks, preserve energy security, ensure tariff fairness and maintain economic competitiveness, climate umbrella group Observatorio do Clima said. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 8 December asked the energy, environment and finance ministries to draft a resolution by 3 February mapping out the phase-out of fossil fuels. He previously called for the creation of an international plan to move away from fossil fuels during a leaders' summit only a few days before November UN Cop 30 climate summit in northern Brazil. But the call did not make it to the summit's final decision despite backing from more than 80 countries . Instead, the Cop 30 presidency pledged to create a roadmap on the issue outside of official negotiations. An initial draft could be ready by April , when Colombia is set to host a global summit on the topic , according to Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago. Brazil's finance ministry told Argus that it is working on the roadmap draft alongside the environment and energy ministries, as well as Lula's chief of staff, and that it will deliver it on 6 February. The Observatorio do Clima's proposal includes 46 recommendations laid out in three sections: energy policy and transition guidelines; financing and economic fundamentals; and governance guidelines. The recommendations include: Replacing thermoelectric power plants with renewable-powered sources whenever possible, as well as avoiding contracting new fossil-fueled facilities; Fully banning hydraulic fracturing; Gradually reducing natural gas and oil usage in industry by replacing them with alternative fuel sources such as green hydrogen, biomass and electricity; Discontinuing investments in carbon capture and storage projects; A plan to end crude block auctions; Adding fuels such as biomethane, biodiesel, ethanol and hydrogen to Brazil's transport sector; Eliminating fossil fuel subsidies; Increasing state-controlled Petrobras' spending on renewables; Establishing a national fund to finance the energy transition. The plan was published and officially forwarded to the government on Wednesday, Observatorio do Clima's public policy coordinator Suely Araujo said. The group has held informal talks with government officials, she added. It will serve as both a guideline to the Brazilian government as well as to the Cop 30 presidency and the Colombia conference, WWF Brazil's energy transition lead Ricardo Fujii said. The group also plans to bring the roadmap to the meeting of Brazil's energy transition forum, which will be held this week. But phasing out fossil fuels could seem to run counter to Brazil's plans to keep increasing crude production. It produces around 4mn b/d of crude , making it one of the 10 largest producers globally, according to its hydrocarbon regulator ANP. Further, Brazil plans to expand crude output to 5.3mn b/d by 2030, according to energy research bureau Epe, hinging on new exploratory frontiers such as the southern Pelotas basin and the environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Republicans seek vote on climate agreements


29/01/26
News
29/01/26

US Republicans seek vote on climate agreements

Washington, 29 January (Argus) — A group of US Senate Republicans wants to treat global climate accords as if they were formal treaties, a move that could make it difficult for a future president to rejoin the Paris agreement. Senator John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) and 23 other Republicans on Wednesday introduced a bill that would require any international climate agreement to be considered a treaty under the US Constitution and therefore need a two-thirds majority in the Senate for the US to join. This would include any attempt to re-join the Paris agreement, which was designed to avoid the need for a Senate vote. The bill also would prohibit the use of federal funds to support any agreement until it gets Senate ratification. The proposal is squarely aimed at a potential future Democratic president who would want to re-join the Paris agreement, as former president Joe Biden did at the start of his term in office. "Democrat administrations have a history of ignoring the will of the American people and bypassing Senate approval to unilaterally join costly international climate treaties," Barrasso said. "This will ensure the American people have the final say on where their tax dollars go." Barrasso and his colleagues introduced the bill just a day after US president Donald Trump's second withdrawal from the Paris agreement formally took effect . Trump also recently pulled out of dozens of organizations, including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Senate-ratified treaty under which the Paris agreement was negotiated, although there are questions as to whether he can do that unilaterally. While Republicans control the Senate with 53 seats, getting the bill through Congress could prove difficult, as it would likely need at least some Democratic support to get the 60 votes needed to bypass a filibuster in the Senate. The Republicans' slim majority in the House of Representatives would require them to prevent any of their members from voting against the bill. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Slowing US EV market hits S Korean LGES' battery sales


29/01/26
News
29/01/26

Slowing US EV market hits S Korean LGES' battery sales

Singapore, 29 January (Argus) — A slowdown in the US EV market dealt blows to South Korea's top battery maker LG Energy Solutions' (LGES) electric vehicle (EV) battery shipments, the firm said today, as it laid out aggressive plans to push into the energy storage space. Its EV battery shipments fell by more than 10pc, pressured by slowing EV sales at major automaker clients and more cautious inventory management, the firm said in its latest quarterly earnings results on 29 January. Its revenue fell by 7.6pc from a year earlier to 23.7 trillion won ($16.6bn) during its 1 January-31 December 2025 financial year, with a 40pc jump in energy storage systems (ESS) battery revenue helping to cushion the blow. Operating losses narrowed to W122bn in October-December from W226bn during the same period a year earlier, and swung sharply from a profit of W601bn a quarter earlier. LGES now expects even more subdued EV market growth of over 10pc in 2026 following heavy US policy changes in 2025, its chief financial officer Lee Chang Sil said during the latest earnings call. The South Korean firm expects the short-term outlook for the EV market to be dim but defended its long-term prospects because of the emergence of robots and autonomous vehicles, it said during its earnings call in response to questions by analysts. Global ESS installations are expected to outpace the EV market and grow by over 40pc in 2026, potentially taking over half of North America's battery market demand, said the firm. Industrial electrification, climate-driven demand for cooling and heating, as well as the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres, where more intense power consumption is raising renewable energy use, are all fuelling ESS demand, Lee added. The firm is seeking to tap on partnerships with North American grid utility customers to outperform its record-breaking orders of 90GWh in 2025. It started lithium-iron-phosphate ESS battery production in the US in 2025, having secured multiple ESS orders from US energy companies. Firm-wide ESS capacity could almost double on the year to 60GWh in 2026, it said. It can raise ESS capacity by unlocking over 50GWh of capacity through the repurposing of its existing EV lines, which has partly been carried out. Conversion of its idle EV capacity in Poland and joint ventures in North America for ESS production has been completed. Its Ochang lines in South Korea could contribute 5GWh if necessary, it added. LGES held a backlog of over 300GWh for its 46 series batteries and 140GWh in cumulative ESS orders as of the end of 2025. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Thailand EV boom drives auto market in 2025


29/01/26
News
29/01/26

Thailand EV boom drives auto market in 2025

Singapore, 29 January (Argus) — Thailand's auto output reached over 1.455mn units in 2025, exceeding its target, while battery electric vehicle (EV) registrations jumped by more than 50pc on the year, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). The vehicle production figure surpassed the target of 1.45mn units, although it still fell short of the previous year's output by 0.9pc, FTI said on 28 January. The 2026 target has been set at 1.5mn vehicles alongside 2mn motorcycles, supported by expectations of falling interest rates, strong foreign investment and an expanding EV market. Internal combustion engine passenger car production fell sharply by 29pc on the year to almost 248,000 units in 2025, as electrification momentum in the segment accelerated. Battery-electric passenger vehicle (BEV) production more than doubled on the year to 71,000 units. Hybrid passenger EV output rose by 12pc on the year to slightly over 214,000 units, while plug-in hybrid passenger EV production more than doubled to nearly 17,300 units. BEV registrations during the year rose sharply by nearly 53pc on the year to around 147,500 units, outpacing the nearly 137,600 units of hybrid EV registration. But cumulative hybrid EV registrations remain far higher at 605,000 units, compared with 372,600 units for BEVs. Major Chinese EV brands in Thailand have continued offering price cuts to entice buyers. A 200,000 Thai baht ($6,434), or 19pc, discount is being offered this year on major EV brand BYD's Atto 3 model, an advertisement by BYD's Chonburi showroom shows. A car dealer's January price list shows a 160,000 baht, or nearly 23pc, discount on Chinese EV brand SAIC's MG4 Electric D model. Thailand is also a major producer of pickup trucks, which account for the majority of its auto production, while electric trucks remain scarce. The country produced around 571,900 double-cab pickup trucks in 2025, but only 555 battery-powered double-cab pickup trucks. Thailand's National EV Policy Board earlier approved policy changes in an effort to avert a potential domestic EV supply glut. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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