Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
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News
Poland wraps up CBAM changes with European Parliament
Poland wraps up CBAM changes with European Parliament
Brussels, 18 June (Argus) — Poland has concluded negotiations on behalf of EU member states with the European Parliament for a revised carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), ahead of handing over the bloc's six-month rotating presidency to Denmark at the end of June. But Warsaw will not lead discussions on the EU's emissions cut target for 2040 and the bloc's updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris climate agreement. Leading negotiations for EU states with parliament, Poland's deputy climate minister Krzysztof Bolesta said the revised CBAM would exempt 90pc of originally covered EU companies from reporting obligations, while 99pc of emissions embedded in imported products would remain covered. The agreement on CBAM now has to be formally approved by parliament and EU ministers. Once published in the bloc's official journal, the revised CBAM text will exempt importers that do not exceed a new single mass-based threshold of 50 t/yr of imported goods. Bolesta admitted that progress has been held up on concluding the EU's NDC during Warsaw's presidency of EU ministerial meetings. CBAM was also listed by Bolesta as one of the points for flexibility in discussions on the 2040 climate target, alongside carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris agreement, additional funding and flexibility between climate sub-targets. At a meeting of environment ministers yesterday, Bolesta indicated that most states still favour the European Commission linking its submission of an EU NDC to the UN — which includes a 2035 emissions cut target — with the bloc's planned 2 July proposal for a 2040 EU climate target. The CBAM yesterday contributed to delays in technical negotiations held in Bonn, Germany, for the UN Cop 30 climate conference in Brazil. The Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries, including countries such as Bolivia, China, Saudi Arabia, Cuba and Vietnam, had urged the need to address concerns "with climate change-related trade-restrictive unilateral measures". Despite "very, very divergent views", EU member states agree that it "is absolutely urgent to come up with an NDC before the end of September", Bolesta said. The Polish presidency of the EU, chairing climate ministers' meetings, has advanced NDC work as much as possible in the absence of the commission's proposal to revise the bloc's climate law. "We really have only a couple of months to come up with something. What lacks in the NDC draft is now the headline target," Bolesta said. Countries have not yet discussed the quality of Article 6 offsets, Bolesta added. "Everyone in the room realises that we need to be very stringent on what kind of offset will be let into the system," he said. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is "cautiously optimistic" that a landing ground can be found on the 2040 climate target. He called for more assertive climate diplomacy, as a large part of the problem lies outside Europe. For China, Hoekstra noted unfair trade practices and "serious" concerns about plans to build additional coal-fired plants. "It's a mixed bag. And we invite them to step up their ambition," he said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Banks increased fossil fuel financing in 2024: Report
Banks increased fossil fuel financing in 2024: Report
London, 18 June (Argus) — Banks "significantly increased" their fossil fuel financing in 2024, reversing a trend of steadily declining fossil fuel financing since 2021, a report from a group of non-profit organisations found this week. The 65 biggest banks globally committed $869bn in 2024 to "companies conducting business in fossil fuels", the report — Banking on Climate Chaos — found. Those banks committed $429bn last year to companies expanding fossil fuel production and infrastructure. The report assesses lending and underwriting in 2024 from the world's top 65 banks to more than 2,700 fossil fuel companies. Figures are not directly comparable year-on-year, as the previous report, which assessed 2023, covered financing from 60 banks. The 60 biggest banks globally committed $705bn in 2023 to companies with fossil fuel business, last year's report found. Those banks committed $347bn in 2023 to companies with fossil fuel expansion plans. Of the five banks providing the most fossil fuel finance in 2024, four were US banks — JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. The 65 banks assessed in this year's report have committed $7.9 trillion in fossil fuel financing since 2016, when the Paris climate agreement took effect, the report found. Finance is at the core of climate negotiations like UN Cop summits. Developed countries are typically called upon at such events to provide more public climate finance to developing nations, but the focus is also shifting to private finance, as overseas development finance looks set to drop . But fossil fuel financing banks are increasingly facing the risk of targeted and more complex climate-related litigation, according to a recent report by the London School of Economics' centre for economic transition expertise (Cetex). Climate litigation is not currently adequately accounted for in financial risk assessment, with case filing and decisions negatively impacting carbon financiers, it said. "While early climate cases primarily targeted governments and big-emitting ‘carbon majors', cases against other firms have proliferated quickly," Cetex said. The report also showed that, based on a review of disclosures from 20 banks supervised by the European Central Bank, many banks across Europe recognise litigation risks as material in the context of climate and environmental factors but tend to not be specific about the risks incurred. By Georgia Gratton and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Adding credits, CO2 removals to EU ETS ‘fatal’: Study
Adding credits, CO2 removals to EU ETS ‘fatal’: Study
London, 18 June (Argus) — Allowing the use of international carbon credits or carbon removals for compliance under the EU emissions trading system (ETS) risks undermining the environmental integrity of the scheme and hindering the bloc's achievement of its climate targets, warned a study by research body the Oeko-Institut published today. Under the three scenarios examined in the study, which was commissioned by non-governmental organisation Carbon Market Watch, the EU ETS's supply-demand balance does not need to be artificially adjusted before 2035. But beyond this date the total number of allowances in circulation could fall below zero, meaning sectors under the scheme would either need to be fully decarbonised by this date or shut down unless flexibility is introduced to the system. Any reforms to increase ETS supply should focus on the system's market stability reserve, the study found, a mechanism which absorbs a percentage of excess supply from circulation each year but can also release permits if supply falls too low. Changes to the scheme's linear reduction factor — the amount by which its supply cap falls annually — would achieve the same thing but risk weakening the system's ambition, and is more likely to be politically challenging, the study said. Some EU member states have expressed interest in allowing the use of international carbon credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement for ETS compliance for this purpose, and the European Commission said last week it is taking the option into consideration , although any such use would entail only "very high integrity" credits representing a "very small proportion" of the bloc's climate action. But introducing Article 6 credits to the ETS "poses significant risks to the functioning and environmental integrity of the system", the study found, pointing to the past use of Clean Development Mechanism credits to offset some ETS obligations to which it attributed the "collapse" of the carbon price. Including carbon removals in the scheme would pose a similar risk, the study found, concluding it is "crucial" they remain in a separate framework. The European Commission is expected to publish a report next year examining their potential inclusion. The commission will also assess in 2031 the feasibility of linking the existing ETS to the EU ETS 2 for road transport and buildings, scheduled for launch in 2027, which could increase the liquidity of the two schemes. But such a link "cannot ease tension in the [ETS] market with certainty, and administrative barriers to the merger are high", the study warned. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's Amazon Fund approves over R1bn in 1H
Brazil's Amazon Fund approves over R1bn in 1H
Sao Paulo, 17 June (Argus) — Brazil's Amazon Fund has approved about R1.19bn ($215mn) to finance projects submitted in the first half of 2025, about 25pc more than it financed in all of last year and double the financing in 2023. The fund — which issues grants to projects that prevent, monitor and combat deforestation while promoting conservation and sustainable development in the Amazon forest — invested more in the first six months of the year than it has in any year since project funding started in 2009, according to Brazil's development bank Bndes and environment ministry (MMA). The fund approved over R947mn last year and R584mn in 2023. The government reactivated the fund in 2023 — initially launched in 2008 — after four inactive years, when the administration of former president Jair Bolsonaro stopped backing new projects. The fund has released R2.7bn since 2009. The fund so far this year has directed R825mn to the Fortfisc deforestation program and R360mn to diverse projects aiming to combat and prevent deforestation. The most recent funding follows new approval standards on structuring and strategic projects. The Amazon Fund has R5.6bn under management in 133 assets, such as the Restaura Amazonia, which has been backing ecological and productive restoration projects for 16 years. Payments have also picked up in the first half this year, as it released R158mn from current approved programs to combat deforestation and boost revenue generation in traditional communities. This amount represents 75pc of last year's payments of R209mn and triple the 2023 payment of R51mn. Norway is the fund's largest donor, having pledged R3.5bn, followed by German development bank KfW with around R388mn and the US with R291mn. Other donors include the UK, Switzerland, Japan, Ireland and Denmark . Brazil is working to eliminate deforestation — both legal and illegal — by 2030, to meet its emissions reductions targets under the Paris climate agreement. Deforestation is one of Brazil's flagship issues for the UN Cop 30 summit, which it will host in northern Para state in November. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity
Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity
Transition aligning with energy security and more Chinese climate leadership may reinforce co-operation despite the US withdrawal, writes Georgia Gratton London, 25 April (Argus) — The UN, IEA and countries including the UK and Brazil — which hosts this year's UN Cop 30 climate summit — stepped up efforts this week to demonstrate common ground and build unity on climate action and the energy transition. Organisations and countries are looking to capitalise on areas of commonality in order to preserve climate action, as the US administration repeatedly pushes back on measures to tackle climate change and moves to curb the energy transition. A virtual meeting convened this week by UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, drew 17 world leaders to commit to keeping climate action a key priority. "Leaders need reassurance that they're not acting alone," a senior UN official says. "Collaboration and multilateralism still matter," a senior Brazilian official says. Cop 30, which will take place in November in the Amazonian city of Belem, will "have a different dynamic", the official adds. "We want to prove that multilateralism is not only about negotiating documents… but about making them real." China's president, Xi Jinping, participated in this week's high-level meeting, the UN confirmed. While the US — the world's second-highest emitter — has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, China is continuing to step forward on climate action. It remains the highest-emitting country by some way, but this week reiterated a commitment to a new climate plan for the period to 2035, covering "all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases", Guterres said. The EU this week noted China's co-operation at Cop 29 — where it was widely viewed as projecting leadership on climate — setting the scene for new climate alliances. While the US government pushes back on clean energy and climate action, support for the energy transition remains strong at sub-national level, from many US state governors, and from the private sector . A poll from three NGOs, including the UK's E3G, this week found that of nearly 1,500 business executives — including in the US — 97pc supported a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The majority of the world has held firm on climate commitments. Heads of state and government of jurisdictions including the EU, several G20 economies and developing nations committed to submitting "ambitious and robust [climate] plans", Guterres said after the meeting. Renewable security Organisations and countries have been careful to underline that different national circumstances will mean that jurisdictions take different approaches to tackling climate change. Although this is a key tenet of the Paris agreement, it also remains a bone of contention in multilateral talks. But the co-hosts of this week's energy security summit, the UK government and energy watchdog the IEA, put the issue front and centre. "Different pathways for different nations should be respected," UK energy minister Ed Miliband told the summit. The almost 60 governments that the UK and IEA hosted will have "different approaches to energy security based on their nation's circumstances and policies", IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's determination to double down on its energy transition, but also extended a nod to the US for its LNG supply as the bloc pivoted away from imports of Russian gas. But many note that achieving energy security is well aligned with a transition to renewable energy. The UK's path "is a hard-headed approach to the role of low carbon power as the route to energy security", Miliband said, while the cost of renewable power is now the cheapest option for the majority of the world. "The pathway out of climate hell is paved by renewables," Guterres said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight
Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight
Washington, 9 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's effort to stop the retirement of coal-fired power plants is reminiscent of a 2017 attempt that faltered in the face of widespread industry opposition. Trump, in an executive order signed on Tuesday, directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to tap into emergency powers to stop the retirement of coal-fired plants and other large plants it believes are critical to grid reliability. The order sets a 30-day deadline for DOE to decide which plants are critical based on a new methodology that will analyze if reserve margins, or the percent of unused capacity at peak demand, are at an "acceptable" level. The initiative shares similarities to Trump's unsuccessful effort in his first term to bail out coal and nuclear plants. In the 2017 effort, Trump backed a "grid resiliency" proposal to compensate power plants with 90 days of on-site fuel. But an unusual coalition of natural gas industry groups, manufacturers, renewable producers and environmentalists united against the idea, warning it would upend power markets and cost consumers billions of dollars each year. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted 5-0 to reject the proposal. It remains unclear if a similarly sized coalition will emerge to fight Trump's latest proposal, under which DOE would use emergency powers in section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to keep some coal plants and other large power plants operating. Industry groups have largely been avoiding taking positions that could be seen as critical of Trump. Environmentalists say they strongly oppose keeping coal plants operating using emergency powers. Doing so would mean more air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, they say, and higher costs for consumers. Environmental groups say they are hoping other industries affected by the potential bailout will eventually speak out against the initiative. "The silence from those who know better is deafening," Center for Biological Diversity climate law institute legal director Jason Rylander said. "I hope that we will start to see more resistance to these dangerous policies before significant damage is done." DOE said it was "already hard at work" to implement Trump's executive order, which was paired with other orders that were meant to support coal mining and coal production. US energy secretary Chris Wright said today that reviving coal will increase the reliability of the electrical grid and bring down electricity costs, but he has not shared further details on the 202(c) initiative. Trying to litigate the program could be "tricky", and section 202(c) orders have never successfully been challenged in court, in part because they are usually short-term orders, Harvard Law School Electricity Law Initiative director Ari Peskoe said. But opponents could challenge them by focusing on "numerous legal problems", he said, such as not allowing public comment or running afoul of a US Supreme Court precedent that prohibits agencies from attempting to decide "major questions" without clear congressional authorization. "Here DOE would use a little-used statute explicitly written for short-term emergencies in order to PREVENT a change in the US energy mix," Peskoe said. A projected 8.1GW of coal-fired generation is set to retire this year, equivalent to nearly 5pc of the coal fleet, the US Energy Information Administration said last month. Electric utilities often decide which plants to retire years in advance, allowing them to defer maintenance and to forgo capital investments in aging facilities. Keeping coal plants running could require exemptions from environmental rules or pricey capital investments, the costs of which would likely be distributed among other ratepayers. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges
Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges
Climate change is becoming a bigger factor behind electrification, but cleaner energy use is slowing the growth in global emissions, writes Georgia Gratton London, 28 March (Argus) — A substantial increase in electricity demand — boosted by extreme weather — drove an overall rise in global energy demand in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, OECD energy watchdog the IEA announced this week. This led to a rise in natural gas consumption, although renewables and nuclear shouldered the majority of the increase in demand, leaving oil's share of total energy demand below 30pc for the first time. Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 compared with 2023 — higher than the average demand increase of 1.3pc/yr between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-based agency's Global Energy Review . Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year. The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says. And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says. Blowing hot and coal Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says. But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation. Global energy suppy by fuel EJ Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 648 634 622 2.2 1.8 Renewables 97 92 89 5.8 3.1 Nuclear 31 30 29 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 149 145 144 2.7 0.7 Oil 193 192 188 0.8 1.9 Coal 177 175 172 1.2 2.0 Global power generation by fuel TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 Renewables 9,992 9,074 8,643 10.0 5.0 Nuclear 2,844 2,743 2,684 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 6,793 6,622 6,526 2.6 1.5 Oil 738 762 801 -3.2 -4.8 Coal 10,736 10,645 10,452 0.9 1.8 Global power generation by country TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 US 4,556 4,419 4,473 3.1 -1.2 EU 2,769 2,718 2,792 1.9 -2.6 China 10,205 9,564 8,947 6.7 6.9 India 2,059 1,958 1,814 5.2 7.9 Global CO2 emissions by country mn t Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 37,566 37,270 36,819 0.8 1.2 US 4,546 4,567 4,717 -0.5 -3.2 EU 2,401 2,455 2,683 -2.2 -8.5 China 12,603 12,552 12,013 0.4 4.5 India 2,987 2,836 2,691 5.3 5.4 *includes industrial process emissions — IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef
Lula visits Japan to talk ethanol, Cop 30, beef
Sao Paulo, 25 March (Argus) — Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva traveled to Japan on Tuesday in search of energy transition agreements and new market opportunities to improve trade relations between the countries. Bilateral Japan-Brazil trade fell to around $11bn in 2024, down from $17bn in 2011, the Brazilian government said. Brazil exported $730mn in goods to Japan in January-February, while importing $995mn from the Asian country in the period, according to Brazil trade ministry data. Exports dropped by almost 13.5pc from a year before in the two-month period, while imports grew by nearly 25pc. "Firstly, we have [a shortfall] to turn around," Lula said. Brazil will also ask Japan to join its growth acceleration plan . He is accompanied by 11 ministers and four members of congress, including senate president Davi Alcolumbre and lower house president Hugo Motta. Ethanol market Brazil aims to sell more ethanol to Japan, as the Asian country expects to increase its ethanol blend to 10pc from 3pc by 2030. "If Japan blends 10pc of ethanol into gasoline, it will be an extraordinary step not only for us to export to them but for them to be able to produce in Brazil," Lula said. Japan received 3.4pc of Brazil's ethanol exports in 2024, according to Brazil's development and trade ministry. Cop 30 and energy transition Lula's visit also seeks to attract investment in renewable energy, forest revamps and new donations to the Amazon Fund, as well as a "strong commitment" from Japan at the Cop 30 summit, to be held in Brazil later this year. Brazil aims to export clean fuels to generate power to Japan, as power imports account for more than 80pc of all Japanese power demand and "a large share of it comes from fossil sources," according to the Brazilian foreign relations ministry's Asia and Pacific secretary Eduardo Saboia. Brazilian and Japanese companies announced earlier this year plans to produce biomethane in Brazil . The renewable fuel would supply both countries. Brazil and Japan should also sign a deal to help recover the Cerrado biome, which is the second largest biome in Brazil and the second most endangered. It comprises of savanah grasslands and forest and makes up about 25pc of the nation's territory. The Cerrado lost 9.7mn hectares to wildfires in 2024, up by almost 92pc from 2023, according to environmental network MapBiomas' fire monitor researching program. Deforestation is one of Brazil's flagship issues for Cop 30 this year. The country has been pushing for forest protection and recovery initiatives as most of Brazil's past Cop pledges cannot be met with only its remaining forests. Japan and Brazil should talk about the Amazon Fund as well because Brazil "wants more", Saboia said. Japan was the first Asian country to donate to the fund with $14mn, which Saboia said was "too little." Where's the beef? Lula is also targeting opening Japan's beef market to Brazilian exports, as the Asian country imports over 70pc of all its beef. Lula met with members of the beef exporters association Abiec in his first day in Japan to discuss the matter. The bulk of Japan's beef imports — 80pc — come from the US, the Brazilian government said. Brazil does not currently export beef to Japan. "Brazil has the logistic capacity to increase exports and double beef exports every four years," transport ministry Renan Filho said. Brazil has been trying to enter Japan's beef market for over two decades. This time, Lula expects to achieve a technical visit from Japan to inspect Brazil's beef producing conditions as a first step toward accessing the Japanese market. Lula will depart to Vietnam on 28 March to debate a plan to turn the country into one of Brazil's strategic partners. Only Indonesia is considered a Brazil strategic partner in southeast Asia. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Country focus
Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks
Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks
Rio de Janeiro, 20 May (Argus) — Brazil is arguing that its developing country status allows it to consolidate its position as a major crude producer and is likely to lean on developed countries during much-awaited discussions on moving away from fossil fuels at the UN Cop 30 climate conference in November. Attempts to reach an ambitious outcome on mitigation — cutting greenhouse gas emissions — and actions to move away from fossil fuels were quashed at Cop 29 in Baku last year, and all eyes are on Brazil to bridge divides on this issue . Cop 30 president-designate Andre Correa do Lago has failed to address fossil fuels in his two letters outlining priorities for the summit, but members of the Cop 30 team have indicated the issue will be on the agenda. With geopolitical tensions and energy security questions redirecting government priorities away from the energy transition, the outlook is more challenging than when Cop parties agreed the global stocktake (GST) conclusion on fossil fuels and energy in 2023 . But Brazil is well-placed to take the lead. It is a respected player in climate discussions and has one of the cleanest energy mix — 49pc of its energy and 89pc of its electricity comes from renewables. Its own mitigation efforts prioritize slashing deforestation, which accounts for the lion's share of Brazil's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Non-profit World Resources Institute Brazil describes the emissions reduction target in Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan — as "reasonable to insufficient" and notes that energy emissions are expected to increase by 20pc in the decade to 2034. Its NDC avoids any concrete steps towards winding down crude. After you The government's view on fossil fuels is that Brazil's developing country status, the oil and gas industry's importance in its economy and comparatively low fossil fuel emissions justify pushing ahead with oil production. Correa do Lago said earlier that Belem was picked as a venue for Cop 30 to show that Brazil is still a developing country, adding that any decision on oil and gas should be taken by Brazil's citizens. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that oil revenue will fund the energy transition. It is a position that has earned Brazil accusations of hypocrisy from environmentalists at home and abroad, but which also places it as a possible model for other hydrocarbon-producer developing countries. Brazil's diplomatic tradition of pragmatically balancing seemingly opposing positions could serve it well here, said Gabriel Brasil, a senior analyst focused on climate at Control Risks, a consultancy. He does not see Brazil's attempt to balance climate leadership with continued oil production as hurting its standing among fellow parties or energy investors. Civil society stakeholders hope pre-Cop meetings will help bring clarity on how Brazil might broach the fossil fuel debate. Indigenous groups, which are set to be given more space at Cop, are demanding an end to fossil fuel extraction in the environmentally sensitive Foz do Amazonas offshore basin. Meanwhile, Brazilian state-owned Petrobras moved one step closer to being authorized to begin offshore drilling there . During meetings of the UN climate body — the UNFCCC — in Panama City this week, the Cop 30 presidency will present ideas for the summit "with a focus on the full implementation of the GST". But it has to wait for countries to update their NDCs to gauge what is achievable on mitigation. Only 20 have submitted new NDCs so far, with the deadline pushed back to September. Brazil's own NDC gives some clues. It welcomes the launch "of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" and reiterates that developed countries should take the lead. And a report commissioned by Brazil's oil chamber IBP and civil society organization ICS to be given to negotiators ranks Brazil as a "mover" in the transition away from oil and gas, ahead of "adapters" like India and Nigeria but behind "front-runners" Germany and the US. The research develops the idea of a country-based transition plan, using criteria such as energy security and institutional and social resilience, as well as oil and gas relevance. By Constance Malleret 2023 Brazil emissions sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024
Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024
Sao Paulo, 30 April (Argus) — Brazil's mines and energy ministry's (MME) energy transition spending shrank by 83pc in 2024 from the prior year, while resources for fossil fuel incentives remained unchanged, according to the institute of socioeconomic studies Inesc. The MME's energy transition budget was R141,413 ($24,980) in 2024, down from R835,237 in the year prior. MME had only two energy transition-oriented projects under its umbrella last year: biofuels industry studies and renewable power incentives, which represented a combined 0.002pc of its total R7bn budget. Still, despite available resources, MME did not approve any projects for renewable power incentives. It also only used 50pc of its budget for biofuel studies, Inesc said. Even as supply from non-conventional power sources advances , most spending in Brazil's grid revamp — including enhancements to better integrate solar and wind generation — comes from charges paid by consumers through power tariffs, Inesc said. Diverging energy spending Brazil's federal government also cut its energy transition budget for 2025 by 17pc from last year and created a new energy transition program that also pushes for increased fossil fuel usage. The country's energy transition budget for 2025 is R3.64bn, down from R4.44bn in 2024. The new program — also under MME's umbrella — has a budget of around R10mn, with more than half of it destined to studies related to the oil and natural gas industry, Inesc said. A second MME program — which invests in studies in the oil, natural gas, products and biofuels sectors — has an approved budget of R53.1mn. The science and technology ministry is the only in Brazil that increased its energy transition spending for 2025, with R3.03bn approved, a near threefold hike from R800mn in 2024. Spending will focus on the domestic industry sector's energy transition, Inesc said. Climate activists have criticized Brazil for not planning to phase out fossil fuels before, including criticisms to the first letter written by the UN Cop 30 summit's president. The country will hold the summit in November in northern Para state. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada’s Liberals ahead on election homestretch
Canada’s Liberals ahead on election homestretch
Both parties push the need for new investment to tap non-US energy markets, but project permitting policy is a key differentiator, writes Brett Holmes Calgary, 25 April (Argus) — Canada's Liberal party is positioning itself to receive a fourth straight mandate on 28 April, but it must first fend off a late push by the Conservatives in an election campaign that has been closely watched by the energy sector. The Liberals have benefited from the selection of a new leader in Mark Carney last month, combined with a considerable foe to rally against — US president Donald Trump and his verbal and economic attacks on Canada. While campaigning, Carney has tried to keep the focus on Trump's annexation and economic threats, but momentum has seemingly stalled. The Liberals led the Conservatives by a 42:38 margin on 24 April, but this is three points less than 10 days earlier, according to poll aggregator 338Canada. The tight race has already motivated a record 7.3mn electors to cast their vote at advance polls, and the energy industry has kept a close eye on promises made by both Carney and his challenger, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Both agree that pivoting away from a hostile US is critical, and that new trade corridors to Canada's coasts are key to reaching more reliable partners. But executives from major Canadian energy companies point out that there is likely to be lower-hanging fruit that can attract investment in a country where productivity has been lagging its peers. Industry leaders have pleaded for government to "reset its policies", which Carney seems less inclined to do than Poilievre. Carney sees a future where foreign countries will demand less carbon-intensive oil and gas, meaning a proposed cap on the industry's emissions would be implemented as planned, and support for carbon capture projects would continue under a Liberal government. An overhaul of Canada's Impact Assessment Act is unnecessary, Carney says, suggesting the legislation sets major project proponents up for success because its rigour helps to avoid court battles. But the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (Capp) points to that legislation as the top reason why C$280bn ($200bn) of oil and gas projects were cancelled over the past decade. Repealing the law was among the "demands" Alberta premier Danielle Smith made to Carney in March, but the latter seems content to hang on to many of former prime minister Justin Trudeau's energy policies. Carney was born in Alberta , but familiarity has yet to translate into co-operative relations between federal and provincial government. Yet his desire to build new conventional energy projects marks a key departure from Trudeau. Build, baby build "I'm interested in getting energy infrastructure built," Carney said during the 18 April leaders' debate. "That means pipelines, that means carbon capture and storage, that means electricity grids." And the Liberals are prepared to use federal emergency powers, but consent from provinces would still be required. The Conservatives pitch an accelerated six-month regulatory review period to "unleash" Canada's energy so as to stand up to the likes of Trump from a position of strength. The Conservatives tout shovel-ready projects that would kick-start construction as soon as they are approved by a new government. Capp estimates that Canada has C$50bn of energy investment waiting approval. "For three Liberal terms, Canada has had the worst GDP per capita in the G7," Poilievre says. The National Bank of Canada says this primarily reflects Canada's lacklustre investment and productivity over the past decade. Canadian think-tank CD Howe Institute says this cycle can be corrected by a full overhaul of government policy, including the acceleration of permitting for major private-sector projects. Eliminating current and proposed Liberal policy would be among Poilievre's first moves to resurrect investment. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU red tape ‘unsustainable burden’ for transition
EU red tape ‘unsustainable burden’ for transition
London, 6 February (Argus) — EU regulations in their current form are hindering rather than enabling the energy transition, limiting access to funding and slowing renewable installations, delegates at the Financial Times International Energy Policy Forum in Brussels heard this week. EU regulation has become "duplicative", Anthony Gooch Galvez, secretary general of the European Round Table for Industry (ERT), told delegates this week. "The burden is unsustainable" even for ERT members, which tend to be big companies, he said, pointing to the additional problems this would cause small to medium-sized businesses. The EU is "too prescriptive" and expects perfection from day one, Ann Mettler of Bill Gates-founded Breakthrough Energy said, leading to low-carbon technologies not being deployed. The "regulatory tsunami did not lead to the desired outcome", and the bloc should give more space to the private sector to support their development, she said. A lack of policy planning has contributed to the problem, Mettler said, pointing to the low number of final investment decisions that have been taken on hydrogen projects. Companies need to be able to implement their plans, she said. "Very cumbersome licensing and permitting processes" are also impeding progress in the region, IEA executive director Fatih Birol told delegates, calling for these to become "much more nimble". And while funding is technically on the table, it is often difficult to access, Gwenaelle Avice Huet of French firm Schneider Electric said, of which the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility is a prime example. "It's not just about the level of money available." US presents opportunity But the stability of the EU's Green Deal, which was announced in 2021 and remains in place, does offer a stark contrast to the US, said Sebastien Treyer, executive director of think-tank the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. Other speakers also noted the importance of stability and predictability within regulatory frameworks. "You need to have rules to play a good game", Galvez said. In the US, policy has fluctuated wildly between regimes, with president Donald Trump pausing some funding from the country's Inflation Reduction Act in the first days of his new term. This shift could mean US-based investors in the transition look to the EU for opportunities, said Marcin Korolec, president of the Green Economy Institute. "The federal government is not the whole of America. Many other economic players are still very willing to collaborate," Treyer agreed. But a lack of urgency from the European Commission could see the EU fail to capitalise on this, Korolec warned. He criticised in particular the bloc's planned competitiveness fund, announced last week, which would be funded under the EU's next budget starting in 2028, towards the end of Trump's term. "Sitting in a chair for three years waiting is absurd," he said. By Victoria Hatherick and Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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