Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
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News
Analysis
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Houston, 13 November (Argus) — Mexico's updated climate pledge sets its most ambitious emissions target, but the plan sits in sharp contrast to the government's push to increase crude processing and fuel output at state-owned Pemex's refinery system. Mexico submitted its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) ahead of this month's UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, committing for the first time to an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions of 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035, or 332–363mn t CO2e with international support. The target represents a cut of more than 50pc from a business-as-usual trajectory, according to the environment ministry, and aligns with Mexico's long-term commitment to reach net zero by 2050. But while Mexico promises steep emissions reductions, it is simultaneously doubling down on a fossil-heavy industrial strategy centered on reviving its aging refining system, boosting domestic output of gasoline and diesel and limiting private-sector participation across the downstream chain. Mexico's refineries — most of which regularly run at below 50–60pc of capacity — remain among Mexico's largest stationary emitters, with high rates of flaring, residual fuel oil production and energy inefficiency. The government has also poured billions of dollars into the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and continues to prioritize increasing crude throughput at the legacy system, even as maintenance shortfalls, outages and unplanned shutdowns remain common. Pemex processed about 950,000 b/d of crude across its seven domestic refineries in September, up by 8pc from a year prior and 57pc higher than the 604,300 b/d processed in September 2018, before former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office. Mexico's refining-heavy strategy took shape under Lopez Obrador, who made fuel self-sufficiency the centerpiece of his administration after years of under-investment and declining output at Pemex's refining system. His government moved away from the 2014 energy reform and proposed constitutional changes that would free Pemex from its obligation to operate as a "productive state company." The shift enabled greater political influence over Pemex's operations and reinforced a nationalistic focus on refining, even as the company posted financial losses and saw its crude output fall to 40-year lows. President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has continued that trajectory. Backed by a congressional supermajority that allows her party to advance Lopez Obrador's reforms, Sheinbaum has maintained the emphasis on fuel self-sufficiency and continued to expand Pemex's role through increased state support. Mexico's NDC frames climate policy as compatible with economic development, job creation and "just transition" principles. But the plan is still vague on specific mitigation actions for the refining sector. "Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico. Meanwhile, the government maintains policies and proposed reforms that favor Pemex and state utility CFE over private-sector companies, limiting private investment in cleaner fuels and renewable electricity. The lack of incentives for low-carbon technologies, combined with an aggressive push to increase domestic production of gasoline and diesel, contradicts the technical requirements implied by the emissions cap, according to market sources. The contradiction becomes more pronounced as Mexico prepares for the Cop 30 negotiations. Mexico, which now joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs, will likely face scrutiny over how its energy agenda fits within its climate ambitions. For now, the gap between Mexico's stated targets and its refining-focused policy framework remains wide. Without clear measures to reduce emissions from Pemex's refining system, expand low-carbon fuels and introduce stronger regulatory incentives, the new NDC risks becoming another aspirational document. Pemex's crude throughput '000b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Brazil's renewable resources, sound economy and supportive policies could make it a powerful advocate for green H2, writes Pamela Machado Paris, 4 November (Argus) — The Cop 30 UN climate summit kicks off in a few days in Brazil against a backdrop of slowing global energy transition momentum and outright hostility from US president Donald Trump's administration to policies aimed at tackling climate change. Hydrogen has not been immune to these trends. Recent Cop summits have given the industry a platform to showcase its decarbonisation potential, but hydrogen is expected to receive a more modest hearing when delegates gather in Belem, reflecting the more downbeat global mood and the industry's slow development. This year has seen nothing like the level of final investment decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen projects that was anticipated at the start of 2025, as a combination of familiar issues — policy uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks and difficulties securing offtake agreements — have hindered progress for many schemes. The hydrogen sector is going through an "era of maturation and is moving from ambition to delivery — a transition similar to what solar, wind and battery industries have gone through as well", says Ivana Jemelkova, chief executive with lobby group the Hydrogen Council. This phase is "inevitably paired with attrition", Jemelkova tells Argus, with only projects demonstrating "the strongest business cases" able to line up enough financing and support to move forward. But Cop still offers an opportunity, she says — the "perfect place to advance practical solutions" to address challenges with mechanisms such as contracts-for-difference (CfD), national mandates and to set up "alliances to aggregate demand in sectors like fertilisers". Countries with renewable power potential — particularly emerging economies — have also used recent Cop summits to unveil clean hydrogen production ambitions, but momentum has slowed this year in regions such as Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa as companies have scaled back production goals and import ambitions . Emerging talent This is another area where Cop offers a chance for revival, Jemelkova argues. "As of 2025, 65 ... countries have a hydrogen strategy, of which 29 are emerging economies," she says. "This year's update of nationally determined contributions provides an opportunity to set detailed hydrogen targets." So far, there have been few signs that hydrogen will play a greater role in countries' plans, however, and the focus might lie elsewhere, given the sector's slower-than-expected progress. Brazil has used its presidency to promote hydrogen for clean industrialisation. It has announced several funding schemes, partnering with international bodies, including UN industrial development organisation Unido and the Green Climate Fund over the last year. But these initiatives have yet to yield any FIDs. International non-profit industry decarbonisation programme Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA) chose Brazil as its first focus country because it combined government ambition, economic fundamentals and a promising project pipeline. ITA is working with 15 projects in Brazil and had hoped that some of these would reach FID ahead of the summit, but none is now expected this year. While projects reaching FID "would be a powerful symbolic accomplishment, if they cannot quite do so in time for the event, it is not a fundamental cause for concern", ITA says, as the programme's goal "is not just about individual FIDs", but also about overcoming systemic obstacles, such as high financing costs. Brazil's broader agenda as Cop president has included a pledge for nations to increase production and adoption of sustainable fuels, which seems likely to emphasise biofuels more than hydrogen-based alternatives. But planned Cop talks on increasing renewable power generation and integrating carbon markets into a global system should promote the uptake of hydrogen and derivatives, even if indirectly. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 30 success hinges on GHG cuts, finance response
Cop 30 success hinges on GHG cuts, finance response
Edinburgh, 3 November (Argus) — The UN Cop 30 climate summit's success will depend on how Paris agreement parties close huge gaps between ambitions and actions for cutting emissions and bolstering finance. But the shape that this response should take is still unclear. Leaders are heading to Cop 30 on 6 November in Belem, Brazil, with the responsibility of putting the world on track to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, 10 years after it was signed. Brazil, which holds the summit presidency this year, wants to see concrete signals from parties on implementation. New nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — climate plans — due to be submitted to the UN by Cop 30 are a clear measure of progress. But only around 65 countries, out of just under 200, had submitted new plans and targets to 2035 by the end of October. More, including India, South Korea and Mexico are working on it. If implemented, plans revealed to the end of last month — which include targets from China and the EU, but not their NDCs — could contribute to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 10pc by 2035, compared with 2019 levels, according to the UN. China released its NDC on 3 November. The reductions only account for around 10pc of what is needed to put the world on track to stick to the 1.5°C temperature limit by 2035, non-profit World Resources Institute (WRI) says. "It's now for Cop 30 and for the world to respond and show how we are going to speed up," UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. The Brazil presidency intends to help parties rise to the challenge, armed with the historic global stocktake (GST) agreement that countries agreed at Cop 28 in Dubai two years ago and its action agenda . But, unlike the two last Cops, which tackled big headline issues — the GST in Dubai, where the call to transition away from fossil fuels was made, and the new international public finance goal in Baku — Belem will have to seek progress on myriad topics, with key ones outside of its official scope. The NDCs, although central to the negotiations, do not figure on the Cop agenda, and parties continue to disagree on how they should react to the current lack of ambition. The same goes for unilateral trade measures and the much-awaited "Baku to Belem roadmap" aiming to scale up finance to developing countries to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2035 — a compromise reached after developing nations, including India, decried the Baku outcome . Fights over these topics could delay or even derail other negotiations. The presidency will have to support parties with advancing adaptation — a key Cop 30 mandate — and loss and damage talks, and by pursuing work on Cop's just transition programme and implementation of the GST, where mitigation topics, most critically transitioning from fossil fuels , are likely to prove contentious again. Paris match "We can't have one response to the implementation and ambition gap. It needs to be a series of responses because it has to work not only for different actors, different geographies, different communities, but also for different economic sectors", Cop 30 strategy chief Tulio Andrade said. The Cop presidency wants stakeholders to see the "complex response" as a "bundle of responses" coming from the negotiations, but also the action agenda and initiatives it has launched and partnerships, including with scientists. But these will have to materialise in an increasingly challenging geopolitical context, and while US president Donald Trump, who took his country out of the Paris agreement in January, is dialling up anti-climate opposition in multilateral forums . It is unclear which role the US, which did not send a delegation to the Bonn climate talks in June, will play in Brazil, but its influence will be felt. The US is the world's second largest GHG emitter after China. "Our main priority will be to have Cop 30 sending a very strong signal in support of multilateralism and the 10-year anniversary of the Paris agreement. But we know it's not the best moment [geopolitically]," Andrade says. In terms of concrete deliverables, he says, "it is an outcome that preserves and strengthens the legacy of what we have achieved so far and that accelerates implementation in response to urgency". By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU still wants to lead at UN climate talks
EU still wants to lead at UN climate talks
Brussels, 27 October (Argus) — The EU is seeking to "inject" political momentum at the upcoming UN Cop 30 climate summit. That probably means promising a CO2 emissions reduction of up to 72.5pc by 2035, against a 1990 baseline. But, just a few weeks ahead of the climate talks in Belem, Brazil, the EU has still to formally agree on anything more than a statement of intent regarding its nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan. The bloc's climate credibility is "rock solid" says EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, a former centre-right Dutch foreign and finance minister. He claims a mandate to negotiate at Cop 30. "I'm positive that we will manage to have the 2035 target also formally before we walk into Belem," Hoekstra says. He can boast latest formal figures indicating that the EU has cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37pc since 1990, despite a 68pc rise in its GDP. The EU also only accounts for 6pc of global emissions. In the second quarter of 2025, 54pc of the EU's net power generation came from renewables. And EU environment ministers could, on 4 November, still formally give a negotiating mandate to Hoekstra for the NDC, just days ahead of talks in Brazil on 10-21 November. The ministers could even agree to a joint position on the bloc's 2040 GHG reduction target. The NDC, or 2035 target, could have been straightforward maths, with an indicative GHG reduction touted of 72.5pc — midway between a 90pc reduction by 2040 and a 55pc reduction by 2030. Slovakia, though, insisted on a lower target, eroding the target cut to 66.25pc. Another unhappy signal is the EU leaders' meeting on 23-24 October, which did not mention the commission's July proposal for a net domestic GHG cut of 90pc by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. No mention either is made of the NDC. In vague language, EU leaders merely underline the importance of contributing to the global emission reduction effort in a way that is both "ambitious and cost-efficient", also with an adequate level of "high-quality" international credits. While wavering on 2035 and 2040 climate targets, the bloc is beefing up its carbon border adjustment mechanism to prevent energy intensive industries relocating outside the bloc. That means including more sectors, supporting EU exporters and preventing resource shuffling by others selling greener products to the EU and more carbon-intensive goods domestically. "We're not asking anything from anyone [that] we're not asking from ourselves," Hoekstra tells Argus . Pointing fingers If in doubt about itself, the EU can always point at what others are not doing. It is a major blow that the US has "checked out", Hoekstra says. "Part of [climate] leadership is also to articulate what we expect of others," he adds, pointing out the lack of ambition from other major emitters, notably China. "This Cop is extremely tricky. We know what it means when a US president leaves the Paris agreement," Austrian MEP and Cop 30 delegate Lena Schilling tells Argus . "It should have been the moment the EU says: ‘we will commit to our climate ambition'." While welcoming a non-binding parliamentary resolution on 23 October that called for a 72.5pc GHG cut by 2035 and an end to fossil fuel subsidies, Schilling references a string of legal changes weakening the EU's Green Deal. That includes a recent agreement to delete obligatory climate neutrality plans for large firms under its corporate sustainability due diligence directive. The NDC, or 2035 target will be decided solely by EU states. But the 2040 target also needs to be agreed with the European parliament. The 90pc target is not acceptable right now for EU states and parliament, Bulgarian centre-right EPP member Radan Kanev tells Argus , proposing instead a target of 78pc, dependent on whether major emitters including China and India deliver on their pledges. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.