Overview

Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.

Follow the key developments in energy transition field with our Net zero page and keep up to date with ongoing coverage of these issues by following Argus Media on LinkedIn and on X.

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News
10/07/25

EU ministers discuss 2035, 2040 climate target setting

EU ministers discuss 2035, 2040 climate target setting

Brussels, 10 July (Argus) — The EU needs to set its 2040 climate target and derive its 2035 nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan — to the Paris climate agreement from it, European climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra reiterated today. But France and Hungary's environment ministers have suggested focusing on the EU's 2035 climate target first. European climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has repeated the need to first have a "conversation" on setting the bloc's 2040 climate target and only then deriving the EU's 2035 NDC. "That is the way we will approach it," Hoekstra said before an informal meeting of environment and climate ministers in Denmark. This comes after members of the European Parliament rejected the idea of a fast-track procedure for the 2040 target on 9 July . France's environment minister, Agnes Pannier-Runacher, said that the first topic to discuss was the EU's NDC, ahead of the UN Cop 30 climate talks in Belem, Brazil, in November. There is "the question as well of our [2040] objective under the renegotiation of the climate law", she said. Asked about a two-step approach for the setting of the 2040 target and the 2035 goal, Pannier-Runacher said she was "open to all discussions as long as the agenda on competitivity is clear" and goes beyond words. This comes after French president Emmanuel Macron said at the end of last month that setting an EU target for 2040 is not a must for the Belem climate talks. Pannier-Runnacher said that the 2035 target was between 66.5pc, if derived from current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and 71.5pc, if taking into account the European Commission's proposal to cut GHG emissions by 90pc by 2040 from 1990 levels, accounting for "flexibilities". The commission's proposal includes several flexibilities for the 2040 target, including allowing a "limited" contribution of international carbon credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris agreement to count towards the goal from 2036, and the use of domestic permanent carbon removals in the EU emissions trading system. Hungary's environment state secretary Aniko Raisz said discussions on the NDC and the 2040 climate goal should be separated, because the latter "cannot be rushed" and "the issue won't be finished by the end of September as it needs a "thorough impact assessment". NDCs need to be submitted to the UN by September to be counted in a synthesis report set to ground climate discussions in Belem. Drawing a line between the EU's 2030 and 2050 targets, the 2035 goal for emissions reductions could be over 66pc, Raisz said, adding that NDCs were non-binding commitments. German climate action minister Carsten Schneider did not seem phased by a short timeline to reach an agreement on a 2040 goal and an NDC, which is Berlin's preference. "If the time is long, decisions are postponed," he said. "If Europe is not able to manage that nobody will," he said, citing China, Brazil, India and the US. "We think there's a logic in setting the 2040 target and out of that extracting the 2035 target," Danish climate minister Lars Aagaard Moller said. "That is still the basis for the discussion." Moller chairs meetings of EU climate ministers until the end of December. By Dafydd ab Iago and Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

EU MEPs reject urgency procedure for 2040 climate goal


09/07/25
News
09/07/25

EU MEPs reject urgency procedure for 2040 climate goal

Brussels, 9 July (Argus) — Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) today rejected a motion put forward by the centre-left S&D group yesterday to fast-track discussions on the EU's 2040 climate targets, after far-right group the Patriots for Europe was given the lead on these discussions. MEPs rejected the urgency procedure motion — which would have sped up discussions on the European Commission's proposal to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90pc by 2040 from 1990 levels — with 379 votes against and 300 in favour. Dutch Renew member Gerben-Jan Gerbrandy, in favour of the proposal, argued that an EU 2040 target will contribute to the success of Cop 30 UN climate talks in Belem, Brazil. "The proposal to amend the European climate law has only been tabled last week, which is very, very late," Gerbrandy said. The urgency procedure would have allowed for faster debate, amendments and votes at committee and plenary level, according to German S&D member Tiemo Wolken. He noted that parliament has previously used the procedure to change environmental and climate laws, and recently to amend the protected status of wolves. Wolken's S&D had signed the motion with the Greens and Left. Parliament's largest group, the centre-right EPP, did not support the motion. Dutch EPP member Jeroen Lenaers called for realism. "We're not voting today on the climate law. We are voting on which procedure we're going to use," he said. He sees no justification as the climate proposals were only recently put forward by commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. "We want to work alongside the council in a parallel process," Lenaers said. EU states and parliament will have to adopt the final legal text of any amendments to the bloc's 2021 climate law. The text currently contains an obligation for the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and an intermediate net GHG cut of at least 55pc by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. Austrian Green Lena Schilling said the EPP has opened the door for climate change deniers to further delay and undermine Europe's climate protection. "Right-wing extremist climate change deniers in powerful negotiating positions are a threat to the fight against the climate crisis," Schilling said. The Patriots group has been selected to choose one of its members to draw up and negotiate legal amendments following the commission's proposal. "The left's attempt to remove our influence on EU climate negotiations has been voted down," Danish member Anders Vistisen said. He called for a "realistic and responsible" climate policy rather than "[campaigner] Greta Thunberg rhetoric and climate nonsense". Vistisen also indicates that the commission's proposed 90pc GHG reduction is " not going to happen ". By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

EU Parliament disputes 2040 climate file


08/07/25
News
08/07/25

EU Parliament disputes 2040 climate file

Brussels, 8 July (Argus) — The European parliament will vote tomorrow on whether or not to use an urgency procedure, proposed by a group led by centre-left S&D, in examining the legal proposals to set a 2040 climate target for the bloc, after far-right Patriots for Europe got to lead the talks on the goal. The discussions overshadowed EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra's presentation of the proposal. A group including the centre-left S&D group, the Greens and the Left have put forward an urgency procedure to have more say in the 2040 discussions, after the far-right Patriots for Europe group has been given the task of leading the work on amending the bloc's climate law to set an EU-wide 2040 target. The commission's proposal involves a goal of reducing EU emissions by 90pc by 2040 from 1990 levels. The parliament's largest centre-right EPP group did not back the emergency procedure. "The Left, Renew and Green activists are trying to manipulate the process and seize control," said Anders Vistisen, a Danish member of the Patriots for Europe group. The urgency procedure would give greater powers in discussing the 2040 proposals to the chair of parliament's environment committee, Antonio Decaro, an Italian MEP from the centre-left S&D group. They'll probably need some EPP members," an official said. The Patriots group includes parties such as Hungary's Fidesz, France's Rassemblement National, Italy's Lega Nord and Spain's Vox. Vistisen said the Patriots group completely rejects the "unrealistic and ideological" commission approach. "The commission wants to push through a 90pc reduction. We're making it clear — that's not going to happen." Former environment committee chair Pascal Canfin now expects greater co-operation between "pro-European" groups. "It will force the pro-European groups to work together to carry this key proposal to an agreement before the [UN climate conference] Cop 30 in Belem," said Canfin, a French liberal. The dispute overshadowed Hoekstra's presentation of the 2040 proposals to parliament. "What we do need, particularly for these type of policies, are solid majorities. And yes, sometimes that takes more time than you anticipate beforehand," Hoekstra said. Speaking for the EPP, Lidia Pereira called for flexibility and warned against de-industrialisation. "More important than setting a numerical target is making sure we stay on the right course," Pereira said. The commission's proposal includes several possible "flexibilities" for the target, including allowing a "limited" contribution of international carbon credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement to count towards the goal from 2036, and the use of domestic permanent carbon removals in the EU emissions trading system. "The proposals for flexibility are just green colonialism. It will help rich countries such as the Netherlands or Germany, large multinational corporations and poor countries and small companies will pay," said Alexandr Vondra, Czech member of the conservative ECR group. German S&D member Tiemo Wolken criticised the commission for coming forward with a 2040 proposal "weeks" before international climate talks in Belem, Brazil. "There's not enough time in the European Parliament and in the council to discuss it," said Wolken. The summit is scheduled for November. "The 2040 climate now is in the hands of the far right, the people who deny the climate crisis," said Austrian Green Lena Schilling, noting the importance of the urgency procedure to save the target. "We don't need 85pc, not 87pc — minimum 90pc," Schilling said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Multilateralism should steer climate finance: Brics


07/07/25
News
07/07/25

Multilateralism should steer climate finance: Brics

Sao Paulo, 7 July (Argus) — Developed countries must fully engage in climate finance to support developing countries trying to meet Paris agreement goals, top Brazilian officials said at the Brics summit held in Rio de Janeiro on 6-7 July. "One decade after the Paris agreement, [the world] lacks resources for a fair and planned transition," Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. "Developing countries will be the most affected by losses and damages, while they are also the ones that have fewer ways to fund mitigation and adaptation," Lula da Silva said during his keynote address Monday. The Brics summit discussed climate finance in anticipation of the UN Cop 30 climate summit , which will be also be held Brazil, in November. The group issued a declaration that reinforced its commitment to uphold multilateralism as a solution for climate actions, while it also emphasized developed countries' responsibility towards developing countries to financially enable just transition pathways and sustainable development aligned with the Paris agreement. The Cop 29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024 managed to reach an agreement to allocate $300bn/yr in resources for climate action. But delegates to the upcoming UN Cop 30 summit are targeting at least $1.3bn/yr in public and private funds to tackle climate change, focusing especially on countries that are already dealing with extreme weather conditions and lack financial resources to mitigate it. The Brics also announced a memorandum of understanding on the Brics Carbon Markets Partnership focused on capacity building and multinational cooperation to support climate strategies such as mitigation efforts and emergency resource mobilization. The declaration opposes unilateral protectionist measures, arguing that they "deliberately disrupt the global supply and production chains and distort competition." Climate justice, the fight against desertification, strengthened climate diplomacy and subsidies to environmental services were the main topics of discussion during the Brics summit, Brazil's environment minister Marina Silva said. Brazil will launch its own initiatives to promote climate finance in Cop 30. One program already launched is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) fund that aims to raise $125bn to preserve 1bn hectares of global tropical forests across 80 developing countries. Brics' development bank NDB will target 40pc of its investments to promote sustainable development, such as energy transition. The bank has approved $40bn in investments for clean energy, environment protection and water supply, it said last week. Brazil accounts for $6.4bn of total investments, gathering resources to 29 projects under climate actions, according to the institution. Brazil currently holds the presidency of the Brics, which also includes Russia, China, India and South Africa. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Iran are also members. Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Cuba, Uganda, Malaysia, Nigeria, Vietnam and Uzbekistan act as partner nations. Heated speech During his keynote address, Lula criticized the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as an institution that promotes unilateralism and stressed his support for reforming institutions of the UN to promote multilateralism and political equity for developing countries. He also mentioned that 65 of the biggest banks in the world committed to a $869bn investment to the fossil fuels sector last year. "Market incentives run contrary to sustainability," he said. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

NGOs pitch Amazon preservation funding to Cop 30


04/07/25
News
04/07/25

NGOs pitch Amazon preservation funding to Cop 30

Sao Paulo, 4 July (Argus) — Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Brazil's northern Amazon region set up a plan to draw investments to conservation, restoration and sustainable development in the biome. The plan — submitted to the UN Cop 30 climate summits presidency on 4 July — suggests redirecting subsidies from high-greenhouse gas emission activities to sustainable projects and promoting environmental services, as well as fighting against illegal economic practices such as animal trafficking and property speculation of public lands, according to the NGOs. The Amazon gathered around $5.8bn in investments between 2013-22, while it is worth at least $317bn/yr in ecosystem services, such as climate regulation — vital for agriculture and hydroelectric power generation — and biodiversity, according to the World Bank. The institution also estimated that $7bn would be necessary to preserve the biome against deforestation and ward it off from the tipping point, when it would suffer permanent damage like desertification and severe changes in the rainfall pattern. Main financial resources for the plan may come from the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) initiative, which Brazil launched in 2023 to raise funds to protect tropical forests and combat deforestation, the NGOs said. Considering the program's annual raising of $5bn, the groups expect that $2bn of it will fund the Amazon forest preservation. Another proposal includes the creation of a Global Declaration for Amazon to engage countries enrolled in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in contributing to strengthen the biome against climate change. Brazil will host UN Cop 30 climate summit in November, when it expects to deliver a roadmap to increase global climate finance to $1.3 trillion/yr. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Country focus
08/07/25

Paving Amazon road may spoil Brazil climate target

Paving Amazon road may spoil Brazil climate target

Sao Paulo, 8 July (Argus) — Brazil suspended the paving and reconstruction of the northern BR-319 highway, which would drive up deforestation and make it impossible for Brazil to meet its climate targets by 2050, according to the environment ministry. Reconstructing the highway would increased deforestation and generate 8bn metric tonnes (t) of CO2 by 2050, according to the environment ministry. This would run counter to Brazil's efforts to eliminate deforestation — both legal and illegal — by 2030, to meet its emissions reductions targets under the Paris climate agreement. A federal court decision from October 2024 allowed plans by former-president Jair Bolsonaro's administration to rebuild and pave BR-319 to move forward through a preliminary license. The federal court reassessed the case on 2 July, suspending the preliminary license for the second time. The first suspension dates back to July 2024, when a federal environmental court stopped the work under an argument of irreversible risks to the Amazon forest if the concession remained active. The 918km BR-319 connects the capitals northern Amazonia and Rondonia states, Manaus and Porto Velho, both in the Amazon forest biome. While the preliminary license was in force, deforestation around the highway more than doubled, including in conservation areas, Brazilian climate network Observatorio do Clima said. An increase in deforestation could cut water supply to large cities in the center-south and reduce agriculture and cattle raising by interfering in the rainfall pattern, according to the ministry. It also added that 95pc of Amazon's deforestation happens within 5.5km of highways. Brazil's environmental watchdog Ibama has strengthened its monitoring in the BR-319 to prevent deforestation and other illegal practices in the surrounded areas. Ibama agents have seized tractors and power generators near Tapaua city, in Amazonas, which were used to support illegal activities in the Amazon forest, such as wood extraction. Ibama also applied R8mn ($1.46mn) in environmental fines and blocked access to 1,600 hectares (ha) of deforested areas to fight ongoing illegal activities, it said today. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Brazil’s Amazon oil dilemma


23/05/25
Country focus
23/05/25

Brazil’s Amazon oil dilemma

Petrobras might win this battle, but it faces tougher environmental regulations in the future, writes Constance Malleret Rio de Janeiro, 23 May (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras this week moved closer to gaining authorisation to drill in a promising new oil frontier off the northern coast, but environmental watchdog Ibama has cast doubt over the future of other exploration permits there. Brazil's equatorial margin, and particularly the northernmost Foz do Amazonas basin, is Petrobras' main bet to replenishing its oil reserves — currently set to decline from the start of the next decade. The offshore region is believed to contain massive crude deposits similar to those found off Guyana, with Foz do Amazonas alone possibly holding 10bn bl of recoverable crude, according to energy research bureau EPE. But obtaining the regulatory green light to drill in this environmentally sensitive area is proving a lengthy process. Environmentalists worry about the impact oil exploration will have on the region's little-studied coral reefs, indigenous communities and ecosystems. Ibama denied Petrobras a permit to drill off the coast of Amapa state in May 2023. The oil firm promptly appealed but, two years later, the process continues. The watchdog's experts recommended it reject Petrobras' request at least twice in recent months. But mounting political pressure for approval — including from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who publicly accused the agency of working against the government — led Ibama head Rodrigo Agostinho on 19 May to approve Petrobras' emergency plan to protect fauna in the event of an oil spill. Petrobras will soon run a simulation of the plan, which it describes as the final step towards obtaining the sought-after drilling licence. Adding to the firm's urgency to secure the permit is the fact that the contract for the probe it plans to use in block FZA-M-59 expires in October. Behind the controversy over this single permit lies a politically fraught debate on whether the Brazilian government can reconcile its push for new oil exploration with its climate ambitions. In its decision this month, Ibama outlined important caveats on the future of exploration in Foz do Amazonas, where Petrobras holds the rights to five other blocks. The watchdog recalled the "challenging" environmental licensing process for drilling in Foz do Amazonas in 2013, when hydrocarbons regulator ANP first auctioned exploration rights there. Round and round Future permits are unlikely to be awarded without a more complex and lengthy environmental study, known as an AAS, which was not required from Petrobras this time, Ibama warned. That may cool oil firms' interest for the region in ANP's next licensing round, due on 17 June, when 47 blocks in Foz do Amazonas will be up for grabs. Environmental groups last month called for the upcoming oil auction to be suspended and threatened to take the issue to court. Oil proponents, including Lula and much of his government, say exploring new oil frontiers is a matter of economic and energy security, arguing that oil revenue can fund the energy transition. Critics point out that there is currently no framework in place to guarantee this. The oil industry would support a discussion on how to channel resources towards mitigation efforts, oil chamber IPB president Roberto Ardenghy tells Argus . "We are suggesting, if we find and produce oil [in the equatorial margin], a different distribution of royalties, to channel resources into fighting the real scourge of Brazilian emissions", namely deforestation, he says. Finance minister Fernando Haddad is in favour of "research" in the new oil frontier, but any hydrocarbon discoveries should not be an excuse for Brazil to delay its energy transition, he said in an interview broadcast two days before the Ibama decision. "Humanity needs to relinquish oil," he said. Brazil: Foz do Amazonas blocks Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks


20/05/25
Country focus
20/05/25

Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

Rio de Janeiro, 20 May (Argus) — Brazil is arguing that its developing country status allows it to consolidate its position as a major crude producer and is likely to lean on developed countries during much-awaited discussions on moving away from fossil fuels at the UN Cop 30 climate conference in November. Attempts to reach an ambitious outcome on mitigation — cutting greenhouse gas emissions — and actions to move away from fossil fuels were quashed at Cop 29 in Baku last year, and all eyes are on Brazil to bridge divides on this issue . Cop 30 president-designate Andre Correa do Lago has failed to address fossil fuels in his two letters outlining priorities for the summit, but members of the Cop 30 team have indicated the issue will be on the agenda. With geopolitical tensions and energy security questions redirecting government priorities away from the energy transition, the outlook is more challenging than when Cop parties agreed the global stocktake (GST) conclusion on fossil fuels and energy in 2023 . But Brazil is well-placed to take the lead. It is a respected player in climate discussions and has one of the cleanest energy mix — 49pc of its energy and 89pc of its electricity comes from renewables. Its own mitigation efforts prioritize slashing deforestation, which accounts for the lion's share of Brazil's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Non-profit World Resources Institute Brazil describes the emissions reduction target in Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan — as "reasonable to insufficient" and notes that energy emissions are expected to increase by 20pc in the decade to 2034. Its NDC avoids any concrete steps towards winding down crude. After you The government's view on fossil fuels is that Brazil's developing country status, the oil and gas industry's importance in its economy and comparatively low fossil fuel emissions justify pushing ahead with oil production. Correa do Lago said earlier that Belem was picked as a venue for Cop 30 to show that Brazil is still a developing country, adding that any decision on oil and gas should be taken by Brazil's citizens. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that oil revenue will fund the energy transition. It is a position that has earned Brazil accusations of hypocrisy from environmentalists at home and abroad, but which also places it as a possible model for other hydrocarbon-producer developing countries. Brazil's diplomatic tradition of pragmatically balancing seemingly opposing positions could serve it well here, said Gabriel Brasil, a senior analyst focused on climate at Control Risks, a consultancy. He does not see Brazil's attempt to balance climate leadership with continued oil production as hurting its standing among fellow parties or energy investors. Civil society stakeholders hope pre-Cop meetings will help bring clarity on how Brazil might broach the fossil fuel debate. Indigenous groups, which are set to be given more space at Cop, are demanding an end to fossil fuel extraction in the environmentally sensitive Foz do Amazonas offshore basin. Meanwhile, Brazilian state-owned Petrobras moved one step closer to being authorized to begin offshore drilling there . During meetings of the UN climate body — the UNFCCC — in Panama City this week, the Cop 30 presidency will present ideas for the summit "with a focus on the full implementation of the GST". But it has to wait for countries to update their NDCs to gauge what is achievable on mitigation. Only 20 have submitted new NDCs so far, with the deadline pushed back to September. Brazil's own NDC gives some clues. It welcomes the launch "of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" and reiterates that developed countries should take the lead. And a report commissioned by Brazil's oil chamber IBP and civil society organization ICS to be given to negotiators ranks Brazil as a "mover" in the transition away from oil and gas, ahead of "adapters" like India and Nigeria but behind "front-runners" Germany and the US. The research develops the idea of a country-based transition plan, using criteria such as energy security and institutional and social resilience, as well as oil and gas relevance. By Constance Malleret 2023 Brazil emissions sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024


30/04/25
Country focus
30/04/25

Brazil's energy transition spending drops in 2024

Sao Paulo, 30 April (Argus) — Brazil's mines and energy ministry's (MME) energy transition spending shrank by 83pc in 2024 from the prior year, while resources for fossil fuel incentives remained unchanged, according to the institute of socioeconomic studies Inesc. The MME's energy transition budget was R141,413 ($24,980) in 2024, down from R835,237 in the year prior. MME had only two energy transition-oriented projects under its umbrella last year: biofuels industry studies and renewable power incentives, which represented a combined 0.002pc of its total R7bn budget. Still, despite available resources, MME did not approve any projects for renewable power incentives. It also only used 50pc of its budget for biofuel studies, Inesc said. Even as supply from non-conventional power sources advances , most spending in Brazil's grid revamp — including enhancements to better integrate solar and wind generation — comes from charges paid by consumers through power tariffs, Inesc said. Diverging energy spending Brazil's federal government also cut its energy transition budget for 2025 by 17pc from last year and created a new energy transition program that also pushes for increased fossil fuel usage. The country's energy transition budget for 2025 is R3.64bn, down from R4.44bn in 2024. The new program — also under MME's umbrella — has a budget of around R10mn, with more than half of it destined to studies related to the oil and natural gas industry, Inesc said. A second MME program — which invests in studies in the oil, natural gas, products and biofuels sectors — has an approved budget of R53.1mn. The science and technology ministry is the only in Brazil that increased its energy transition spending for 2025, with R3.03bn approved, a near threefold hike from R800mn in 2024. Spending will focus on the domestic industry sector's energy transition, Inesc said. Climate activists have criticized Brazil for not planning to phase out fossil fuels before, including criticisms to the first letter written by the UN Cop 30 summit's president. The country will hold the summit in November in northern Para state. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Canada’s Liberals ahead on election homestretch


25/04/25
Country focus
25/04/25

Canada’s Liberals ahead on election homestretch

Both parties push the need for new investment to tap non-US energy markets, but project permitting policy is a key differentiator, writes Brett Holmes Calgary, 25 April (Argus) — Canada's Liberal party is positioning itself to receive a fourth straight mandate on 28 April, but it must first fend off a late push by the Conservatives in an election campaign that has been closely watched by the energy sector. The Liberals have benefited from the selection of a new leader in Mark Carney last month, combined with a considerable foe to rally against — US president Donald Trump and his verbal and economic attacks on Canada. While campaigning, Carney has tried to keep the focus on Trump's annexation and economic threats, but momentum has seemingly stalled. The Liberals led the Conservatives by a 42:38 margin on 24 April, but this is three points less than 10 days earlier, according to poll aggregator 338Canada. The tight race has already motivated a record 7.3mn electors to cast their vote at advance polls, and the energy industry has kept a close eye on promises made by both Carney and his challenger, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Both agree that pivoting away from a hostile US is critical, and that new trade corridors to Canada's coasts are key to reaching more reliable partners. But executives from major Canadian energy companies point out that there is likely to be lower-hanging fruit that can attract investment in a country where productivity has been lagging its peers. Industry leaders have pleaded for government to "reset its policies", which Carney seems less inclined to do than Poilievre. Carney sees a future where foreign countries will demand less carbon-intensive oil and gas, meaning a proposed cap on the industry's emissions would be implemented as planned, and support for carbon capture projects would continue under a Liberal government. An overhaul of Canada's Impact Assessment Act is unnecessary, Carney says, suggesting the legislation sets major project proponents up for success because its rigour helps to avoid court battles. But the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (Capp) points to that legislation as the top reason why C$280bn ($200bn) of oil and gas projects were cancelled over the past decade. Repealing the law was among the "demands" Alberta premier Danielle Smith made to Carney in March, but the latter seems content to hang on to many of former prime minister Justin Trudeau's energy policies. Carney was born in Alberta , but familiarity has yet to translate into co-operative relations between federal and provincial government. Yet his desire to build new conventional energy projects marks a key departure from Trudeau. Build, baby build "I'm interested in getting energy infrastructure built," Carney said during the 18 April leaders' debate. "That means pipelines, that means carbon capture and storage, that means electricity grids." And the Liberals are prepared to use federal emergency powers, but consent from provinces would still be required. The Conservatives pitch an accelerated six-month regulatory review period to "unleash" Canada's energy so as to stand up to the likes of Trump from a position of strength. The Conservatives tout shovel-ready projects that would kick-start construction as soon as they are approved by a new government. Capp estimates that Canada has C$50bn of energy investment waiting approval. "For three Liberal terms, Canada has had the worst GDP per capita in the G7," Poilievre says. The National Bank of Canada says this primarily reflects Canada's lacklustre investment and productivity over the past decade. Canadian think-tank CD Howe Institute says this cycle can be corrected by a full overhaul of government policy, including the acceleration of permitting for major private-sector projects. Eliminating current and proposed Liberal policy would be among Poilievre's first moves to resurrect investment. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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