Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
Follow the key developments in energy transition field with our Net zero page and keep up to date with ongoing coverage of these issues by following Argus Media on LinkedIn and on X.
News
London rejects calls to boost North Sea gas, oil output
London rejects calls to boost North Sea gas, oil output
London, 24 March (Argus) — The UK government has rebuked calls from energy industry group Offshore Energy UK (OEUK) to increase domestic oil and gas production. "Issuing new licences to explore new fields cannot give us energy security and will not take a penny off bills," a government spokesperson told Argus on 24 March in response to calls in the press from OEUK and several energy firms to increase North Sea gas and oil output. "The only way to truly protect ourselves from these price spikes is to get off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel markets," the spokesperson added. OEUK released a new report on Tuesday showing that the UK could almost double the amount of gas and oil it produces through to 2050 with changes to tax and regulations, adding 3.7bn bl of oil equivalent (boe) to current projections for production from the UK continental shelf. This is on top of the 3.8mn boe over the 2025-50 period the UK is currently on track to recover, the industry organisation noted. Oil and gas production has declined by around 75pc between 1999 and 2024, department for energy security and net zero (Desnz) data shows. "Without more domestic production, the UK risks becoming increasingly reliant on energy imports at a time of rising global instability," the industry group said. "Maintaining domestic supply is therefore essential for energy security, affordability and reliability." The government is taking pragmatic steps that will ensure existing oil and gas production continues as an essential part of the UK energy mix for decades to come, while actively scaling up clean energy industries in the North Sea, the government said. The government added that issuing new licences to explore fresh fields would make no difference to the UK's current domestic energy output, as such projects typically take up to a decade to develop. GBE chair turns against increased output The chair of state-owned Great British Energy Juergen Maier changed his stance, moving to oppose calls for increased production on Tuesday, from a supportive position earlier in the week. "I am fully supportive of the government position, which is to use existing fields and tiebacks for their lifetime and not to support exploration licences for new fields," Maier said in a post on social media platform LinkedIn on Tuesday. "The end game is renewables and that we need to give supply chain companies enough time to transition," he added. Maier had presented a list of arguments supporting more oil and gas production in the North Sea on 19 March, suggesting he supported this approach. GBE was established in 2025 by the UK government to accelerate renewable energy development, enhance energy security, and support the nation's transition to clean power. Funded with £8.3bn ($11.1bn) over the current parliamentary term, GBE operates as an investment vehicle, development specialist, and project accelerator across the UK's clean energy sectors. By Lucas Waelbroeck Boix Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EIB to lend Vietnam’s Techcombank €200mn for climate
EIB to lend Vietnam’s Techcombank €200mn for climate
London, 24 March (Argus) — The European Investment Bank (EIB) has agreed a €200mn ($232mn) long-term financing facility with Vietnamese bank Techcombank, to drive climate action and environmental projects across Vietnam. The financing will support projects implemented by the private sector in Vietnam. It aims to "bridge the financing gap for green initiatives", the EIB said. The funding will allow Techcombank to increase lending for renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable transport projects. The EIB will also work with Techcombank "to strengthen its climate risk management framework, improve climate-related disclosures and support the implementation of the operation", the former said. Techcombank delivered 16.4 trillion Vietnamese dong ($622mn) in "green lending" in 2024, it said. The funding will support the just energy transition partnership (JETP) that Vietnam signed in December 2022 , the EIB said. Vietnam signed the JETP with the EU, UK, France, Germany, the US, Italy, Canada, Japan, Norway and Denmark, but the US withdrew in early 2025. The JETP aimed to mobilise $15.5bn in public and private finance to support Vietnam's goals to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The country incorporated the JETP into its power plan, which sets out goals to ramp up renewable energy capacity. The share of coal-fired power in Vietnam's electricity generation mix was 44.8pc in 2023, IEA data show. The EIB is the EU's lending arm and is owned by EU member states. It is classed as a multilateral development bank (MDB). Countries often call on MDBs to do more to address climate change, as the institutions have significant leveraging power. Several key donors of international development aid have scaled back or announced cuts to funding in the last 18 months, which is likely to affect projects tackling climate change in developing nations. Governments and campaigners have shifted their focus to MDBs and the private sector, in lieu of public funding. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US pushes IMO to overturn net-zero framework
US pushes IMO to overturn net-zero framework
Sao Paulo, 23 March (Argus) — The US has asked the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to end its attempt to approve a net-zero framework (NZF) for the maritime sector. The country suggests canceling the extraordinary meeting scheduled for October to vote on the net-zero framework, because the model under approval would "have dire economic consequences for the shipping industry, energy producers and global consumers". The US already opposed the NZF proposal at the extraordinary meeting in October 2025 and spearheaded the movement to postpone the vote. The request was included in the submission letter of the US delegation attending the 84th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 84), which will take place in 27 April-1 May, in London. The creation of the NZF was approved at MEPC 83 in April 2025, but the regulation of the measure, in October of last year, was postponed because of a lack of consensus. The new extraordinary meeting is scheduled for October this year, and the measure can be adjourned for more 12 months. In the submission letter, the US argues that the 2025 version of the NZF favors the use of "expensive, unproven, and unavailable fuels", instead of prioritizing existing fuels such as biofuels and LNG, of which the US is a major producer. The submission also argues that the NZF should not contain a carbon pricing mechanism, because this would transform the IMO into a "global climate bank," diverting it from its original mission of regulating the maritime sector. Furthermore, the US says there is a strong lack of consensus among IMO member states, as was apparent in the divided vote to postpone the NZF vote last October. At the meeting, 57 countries voted for postponement, 49 voted in favor, while 21 abstained. The US argues that, should discussions for the creation of a NZF return in the future, the mechanism should not include a carbon emission tax or any type of penalty, nor should it restrict or limit the use of any type of fuel, whether fossil or not. It also calls for the abolition of regional mechanisms for energy transition in the maritime sector, such as EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime in the EU. The US also said that, in case of approving a new NZF model, the acceptance model should be the "explicit acceptance" or "opt-in" procedure. Under this proposal, the regulation would come into effect only after two-thirds of the parties — or parties whose combined merchant fleets constitute not less than 50pc of gross tonnage of the world's merchant fleet — voluntarily communicate to the IMO the acceptance of the framework. By Gabriel Tassi Lara Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK CBAM will not include oil products in 2028
UK CBAM will not include oil products in 2028
London, 23 March (Argus) — London will not include oil products in its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from 2028, raising the prospect that UK refineries will face stiffer competition from North America and the Middle East where governments do not impose carbon emission levies on domestic refiners. The UK will introduce its CBAM on 1 January 2027, initially covering aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and iron and steel. Fuels Industry UK, which represents the country's remaining four refinery operators — Essar, ExxonMobil, Phillips 66 and Valero — had called on the government to include imported refined oil products in the UK CBAM from 1 January 2028. But the government will not expand the mechanism to include refined oil products in 2028, according to a letter from HM Treasury shown to Argus today, but does not rule out its inclusion at a later, unspecified date. British refiners are calling for an equal playing field for the trading of refined oil products, in light of stricter UK and European standards on carbon emissions applied to heavy industry. Carbon emissions costs will have risen considerably for UK refiners by 2028, according to the association, while the UK-EU carbon market linkage scheduled for that year is expected to raise benchmark carbon emissions costs further. Fuels Industry UK expects refiners to be paying around £100mn/yr more on UK ETS allowances by 2028. HM Treasury will not include oil products in the UK CBAM by 2028 "upon consideration of factors such as trade and costs to businesses and households", and said the 2028 proposal would be challenging to achieve "from a technical, legislative and resource perspective". The government has acknowledged cost pressures facing UK refiners, especially with regards to carbon emissions levies. Energy minister Ed Miliband told a parliamentary committee last month that the government wanted to accelerate work to get refineries into the CBAM to "help to protect their competitiveness". The Treasury also acknowledged that "2028 could bring a rise in Emissions Trading Scheme costs to the sector", according to the letter shown to Argus . Separately, the government is yet to respond to Fuel Industry UK's call to reallocate unused free CO2 allowances from two recently closed refineries to help remaining plants cope with rising emissions compliance costs, the association told Argus . The EU is not set to include oil products in its CBAM when it enters force next year, and Fuel Industry UK does not expect the EU to include them until at least 2030 when the trading bloc is due to consider new industry inclusions. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
EV flip-flopping has hampered the west: WEF
London, 21 January (Argus) — Inconsistent policies and political turmoil have hampered western progress on electric vehicles (EVs), while China's longer-term stable approach has benefited industry winners such as BYD, speakers at a World Economic Forum (WEF) panel in Davos, Switzerland, said on Tuesday. China's lead in EVs is less about a single technological breakthrough and more about policy consistency. That was the clear message from executives and policymakers at the WEF panel on the global EV race, where China's long-term industrial alignment was repeatedly contrasted with stop-start policymaking in the US and Europe. Speaking early in the discussion, BYD executive vice-president Stella Li said China's EV successes "start from the government policy", arguing that Beijing's approach has been defined by consistency rather than constant revision. "In the past 20 years they never changed, but some countries went back and forth, and this will confuse manufacturing," Li said. "Once the government gives a very clear line, then manufacturing goes to work on the competition." This clarity, she argued, allowed companies to commit capital, concentrate on research and development and scale production without hedging against political reversals, something she suggested remains a structural disadvantage for western automakers. Industrial reality versus political instability Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, whose state accounts for more than a fifth of US car production, echoed this assessment from a US perspective, saying policy uncertainty has slowed decision-making across the industry. "The back and forth policies at the national level have made it more difficult for industry to throw all in," Whitmer said, adding that long-term investments were increasingly being delayed. "Chaos is really bad for business." The result, she added, is that manufacturers are forced to pursue multiple drivetrain strategies simultaneously, rather than committing fully to electrification. Former General Motors chief economist Elaine Buckberg said that a disconnect between political timeframes and industrial reality is critical. Automakers, she noted, plan vehicles years in advance, while democracy can change government policy over smaller time periods. "The typical planning process is five years before a vehicle comes into market, and you're planning to keep it there for six years," Buckberg said. "Keeping those incentives stable is really powerful." Alternatively, shifting incentives and short-term subsidies can distort demand. Li warned that poorly designed support schemes risk delaying purchases altogether. "Sometimes subsidies are more like a drug," she said. "Consumers just wait and the market stops. That is not sustainable." As competition between the US, China and Europe intensifies, the panel's message was that in the EV race, consistency may matter more than speed. By Thomas Kavanagh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Fossil fuels shift talks to continue outside Cop
Developed countries struggled to lead, and oil producers pushed back, but a roadmap may emerge away from Cop, write Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton Edinburgh, 28 November (Argus) — The UN climate Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, ended last week without an agreement to establish a roadmap on how to shift away from fossil fuels that some countries had hoped to see, but the discussion will not stop there. Just over 80 countries , including EU member states, the UK, Australia, countries in Latin America and Africa, and island states had pushed for the overarching Cop 30 text to address the transition away from fossil fuels, the largest contributor to climate change, but language on a roadmap did not make the final decision. Opposition from major oil-producing countries proved too strong to push the roadmap through, European ministers said. Parties instead agreed on the launch of a "global implementation accelerator (GIA)", and the "Belem Mission to 1.5". These voluntary initiatives are aimed at "enabling ambition and implementation" of countries' climate plans and at keeping the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C temperature rise limit within reach. This refers to the more ambitious goal of the Paris accord — to hold the global rise in temperature to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. "Although text addressing the response [to a lack of climate ambition] was watered down, there are hooks to build on within the GIA and the Belem Mission to 1.5°C," environmental think-tank E3G said. By the end of the summit, 119 countries — accounting for 74pc of global emissions — had submitted new commitments in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), non-profit group WRI noted. But these plans, if delivered, only account for 15pc of the emissions cut required by 2035 to limit the rise to 1.5°C. As a consolation prize, the Brazilian Cop 30 presidency pledged to deliver roadmaps on the transition away from fossil fuel and on halting and reversing deforestation. This echoed Cop 29's outcome, when a roadmap was promised, for scaling up climate finance to $1.3 trillion/yr by 2025 for developing countries that were left disappointed. The roadmaps "will be led by science and they will be inclusive", summit president Andre Correa do Lago said. Brazil holds the presidency until Cop 31 in Turkey next year. In the interim, the country plans to convene high-level talks with key international organisations, fossil fuel-producing and consuming countries, workers and civil society, do Lago said. He also noted that the presidency would "benefit from the first international conference for the phase-out of fossil fuels", to he held in Colombia in April. Having the roadmap in the Cop 30 text would have sent a much stronger signal, as "the main text is an obligation for all", EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said as the summit closed. But the presidency's work on a roadmap, high-level dialogues and the event in Colombia will create further milestones for climate discussions on the transition from fossil fuels, observers said. The presidency's roadmap could create momentum for the start of a plan on fossil fuels from willing countries, even though it sits outside official Cop negotiations. Fault lines The pushback from major oil and gas producers on cutting emissions by reducing fossil fuel use — evident at Cop 29 last year — grew firmer in Belem, and shows no sign of abating. The achievement at Cop 30 was not to renege on the Cop 28 consensus, French climate minister Monique Barbut said. Almost 200 countries pledged at Cop 28 in Dubai in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels "in a just, orderly and equitable manner… so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science". The Cop 28 outcome also called for renewable energy capacity to triple and energy efficiency to double by 2030 and for "accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power". The main Cop 30 text does not mention the transition away from fossil fuels, and only makes two references to the Cop 28 deal — dubbed "the UAE consensus". Even pointing to the energy package within the Dubai deal agreed two years ago proved too much for some oil-producing countries. "The [UN climate body] UNFCCC's consensus-based process, as well as the lack of a concrete proposal to create the framework for developing countries to phase out fossil fuels, hindered the adoption of a roadmap in the Cop cover decision text," the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative said. The final day of Cop 30 — which ran more than 24 hours over time — saw decisions swiftly adopted. But Colombia spoke out against one, objecting that it included no language on the transition away from fossil fuels. "We are demanding the minimum necessary," Colombia's representative said, to "allow language already agreed under [Cop 28] consensus to be discussed here". Confounding the consensus Correa do Lago suspended the plenary while the Cop 30 presidency sought a solution. Decisions adopted at Cop summits cannot be revoked. But Correa do Lago said countries will be able to discuss issues in June next year in Bonn, Germany, at interim climate talks hosted annually by the UNFCCC. Colombia's intervention prompted pushback from Saudi Arabia and a furious response from Russia. The latter told countries objecting to "refrain from behaving like children". India's representative said reopening discussions would be "fundamentally unfair" and "inconsistent" with UNFCCC process. Russia, India and Saudi Arabia throughout the summit opposed the addition of wording on fossil fuels, according to Barbut. Saudi Arabia reiterated throughout Cop 30 that the focus should be on reducing emissions, not on specific fuels. And the climate-sceptic stance taken by US president Donald Trump's administration emboldened major oil-producing countries to stand their ground more firmly this year, many negotiators and observers said. Developed nations were not forceful, at least in the first week of the negotiations, in their support for a roadmap to shift away from fossil fuels. The EU called it a "difficult topic" and was caught in controversial domestic discussions on its own targets and environmental ambitions before heading to the summit, which may have weakened its claims to leadership. Australia, which will preside over Cop 31 negotiations in Turkey next year, at first could not see a space for discussing the roadmap in Belem. And even though over 80 countries had thrown their weight behind the topic by the midpoint of the summit, details on what it would look like were lacking. China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, remained largely quiet on the topic outside negotiating rooms, redirecting attention towards renewable energy — a huge market for the country. Discussions on the transition away from fossil fuels were not expected to take centre stage at Cop , until Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for this during the leaders' summit that preceded the talks. Leadership came from developing nations, notably Colombia. And there has been an eye-catching change at this Cop in how some developing countries are reframing rhetoric around fossil fuels and economic development. Some, including those with oil projects such as Kenya and Sierra Leone, are increasingly pushing for plans to shift away from fossil fuels — in a just, equitable and orderly manner — and highlight the importance of drastically increasing energy access through the transition. A Cop 30 decision addressing "the just energy transition" was broadly well-received. The text drew links between cutting emissions and ensuring climate resilience and positive economic development. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Mexico climate pledge clashes with refinery push
Houston, 13 November (Argus) — Mexico's updated climate pledge sets its most ambitious emissions target, but the plan sits in sharp contrast to the government's push to increase crude processing and fuel output at state-owned Pemex's refinery system. Mexico submitted its new nationally determined contribution (NDC) ahead of this month's UN Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil, committing for the first time to an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions of 364–404mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2035, or 332–363mn t CO2e with international support. The target represents a cut of more than 50pc from a business-as-usual trajectory, according to the environment ministry, and aligns with Mexico's long-term commitment to reach net zero by 2050. But while Mexico promises steep emissions reductions, it is simultaneously doubling down on a fossil-heavy industrial strategy centered on reviving its aging refining system, boosting domestic output of gasoline and diesel and limiting private-sector participation across the downstream chain. Mexico's refineries — most of which regularly run at below 50–60pc of capacity — remain among Mexico's largest stationary emitters, with high rates of flaring, residual fuel oil production and energy inefficiency. The government has also poured billions of dollars into the new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and continues to prioritize increasing crude throughput at the legacy system, even as maintenance shortfalls, outages and unplanned shutdowns remain common. Pemex processed about 950,000 b/d of crude across its seven domestic refineries in September, up by 8pc from a year prior and 57pc higher than the 604,300 b/d processed in September 2018, before former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador took office. Mexico's refining-heavy strategy took shape under Lopez Obrador, who made fuel self-sufficiency the centerpiece of his administration after years of under-investment and declining output at Pemex's refining system. His government moved away from the 2014 energy reform and proposed constitutional changes that would free Pemex from its obligation to operate as a "productive state company." The shift enabled greater political influence over Pemex's operations and reinforced a nationalistic focus on refining, even as the company posted financial losses and saw its crude output fall to 40-year lows. President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration has continued that trajectory. Backed by a congressional supermajority that allows her party to advance Lopez Obrador's reforms, Sheinbaum has maintained the emphasis on fuel self-sufficiency and continued to expand Pemex's role through increased state support. Mexico's NDC frames climate policy as compatible with economic development, job creation and "just transition" principles. But the plan is still vague on specific mitigation actions for the refining sector. "Mexico's ambition is clear, but delivering on these goals will require deep structural transformation and a clear, sustained investment strategy," said Francisco Barnes Regueiro, executive director of the environmental non-governmental organization the World Resources Institute in Mexico. Meanwhile, the government maintains policies and proposed reforms that favor Pemex and state utility CFE over private-sector companies, limiting private investment in cleaner fuels and renewable electricity. The lack of incentives for low-carbon technologies, combined with an aggressive push to increase domestic production of gasoline and diesel, contradicts the technical requirements implied by the emissions cap, according to market sources. The contradiction becomes more pronounced as Mexico prepares for the Cop 30 negotiations. Mexico, which now joins more than 50 countries that have updated their NDCs, will likely face scrutiny over how its energy agenda fits within its climate ambitions. For now, the gap between Mexico's stated targets and its refining-focused policy framework remains wide. Without clear measures to reduce emissions from Pemex's refining system, expand low-carbon fuels and introduce stronger regulatory incentives, the new NDC risks becoming another aspirational document. Pemex's crude throughput '000b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Can Cop summit help industry restore H2 momentum?
Brazil's renewable resources, sound economy and supportive policies could make it a powerful advocate for green H2, writes Pamela Machado Paris, 4 November (Argus) — The Cop 30 UN climate summit kicks off in a few days in Brazil against a backdrop of slowing global energy transition momentum and outright hostility from US president Donald Trump's administration to policies aimed at tackling climate change. Hydrogen has not been immune to these trends. Recent Cop summits have given the industry a platform to showcase its decarbonisation potential, but hydrogen is expected to receive a more modest hearing when delegates gather in Belem, reflecting the more downbeat global mood and the industry's slow development. This year has seen nothing like the level of final investment decisions (FIDs) for hydrogen projects that was anticipated at the start of 2025, as a combination of familiar issues — policy uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks and difficulties securing offtake agreements — have hindered progress for many schemes. The hydrogen sector is going through an "era of maturation and is moving from ambition to delivery — a transition similar to what solar, wind and battery industries have gone through as well", says Ivana Jemelkova, chief executive with lobby group the Hydrogen Council. This phase is "inevitably paired with attrition", Jemelkova tells Argus, with only projects demonstrating "the strongest business cases" able to line up enough financing and support to move forward. But Cop still offers an opportunity, she says — the "perfect place to advance practical solutions" to address challenges with mechanisms such as contracts-for-difference (CfD), national mandates and to set up "alliances to aggregate demand in sectors like fertilisers". Countries with renewable power potential — particularly emerging economies — have also used recent Cop summits to unveil clean hydrogen production ambitions, but momentum has slowed this year in regions such as Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa as companies have scaled back production goals and import ambitions . Emerging talent This is another area where Cop offers a chance for revival, Jemelkova argues. "As of 2025, 65 ... countries have a hydrogen strategy, of which 29 are emerging economies," she says. "This year's update of nationally determined contributions provides an opportunity to set detailed hydrogen targets." So far, there have been few signs that hydrogen will play a greater role in countries' plans, however, and the focus might lie elsewhere, given the sector's slower-than-expected progress. Brazil has used its presidency to promote hydrogen for clean industrialisation. It has announced several funding schemes, partnering with international bodies, including UN industrial development organisation Unido and the Green Climate Fund over the last year. But these initiatives have yet to yield any FIDs. International non-profit industry decarbonisation programme Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA) chose Brazil as its first focus country because it combined government ambition, economic fundamentals and a promising project pipeline. ITA is working with 15 projects in Brazil and had hoped that some of these would reach FID ahead of the summit, but none is now expected this year. While projects reaching FID "would be a powerful symbolic accomplishment, if they cannot quite do so in time for the event, it is not a fundamental cause for concern", ITA says, as the programme's goal "is not just about individual FIDs", but also about overcoming systemic obstacles, such as high financing costs. Brazil's broader agenda as Cop president has included a pledge for nations to increase production and adoption of sustainable fuels, which seems likely to emphasise biofuels more than hydrogen-based alternatives. But planned Cop talks on increasing renewable power generation and integrating carbon markets into a global system should promote the uptake of hydrogen and derivatives, even if indirectly. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.