Climate policy and UN Cop meetings
Overview
Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.
Follow the key developments in energy transition field with our Net zero page and keep up to date with ongoing coverage of these issues by following Argus Media on LinkedIn and on X.
News
IEA cuts 2026 demand forecast, sees huge 2027 surplus
IEA cuts 2026 demand forecast, sees huge 2027 surplus
London, 17 June (Argus) — The IEA has again cut its forecast for demand in 2026, saying deep cuts to consumption have spread beyond the sectors and regions that were initially the most heavily affected by the US-Iran war. Its first forecast for 2027 suggests an enormous global surplus of oil. "Deliveries of major fuels, especially gasoil, are showing signs of strain across almost all regions," the IEA said today in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). Higher prices and "a harsher macro climate" have combined "to shift all product categories into decline", it said. It now sees demand in 2026 at 103.3mn b/d, compared with 104mn b/d in its May OMR — a 1.1mn b/d drop from 2025. It said preliminary data suggest demand in the second quarter will be 5mn b/d lower than a year earlier because of higher prices and disruptions to products availability. This will be the first global quarterly demand fall since the pandemic year of 2020, and it said weakness will continue into the third quarter. The IEA had previously assumed a recovery starting in June. The agency sees a "relatively modest" demand rebound to 105.3mn b/d in 2027, but said this is "subject to a substantial level of uncertainty" surrounding the proposed peace deal to end the war. It puts supply in 2026 at 102.4mn b/d, a 200,000 b/d upgrade from its prior OMR. But in 2027 it forecasts an 8mn b/d surge in supply, to 110.3mn b/d, as Mideast Gulf production recovers and Opec+ raises its output targets. These supply and demand forecasts suggest an enormous surplus of oil in 2027. This may provide "an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves", the IEA said. Global observed oil stocks have dropped by 3.8mn b/d since the start of the US-Iran war, with preliminary data showing a 4.6mn b/d draw in May. The IEA said 252mn bl have been released as of 12 June under its co-ordinated emergency stocks move, and a further 79mn bl are scheduled to be released by the end of July. This leaves 107mn bl to be released depending on market needs, the IEA said. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK's proposed plan to dilute EV targets ‘short-termist’
UK's proposed plan to dilute EV targets ‘short-termist’
London, 16 June (Argus) — A proposed UK plan to ease battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales targets is a win for "short-termist incumbent lobbying", industry experts say, even though sales uptake has so far trailed the government's mandates. UK ministers are preparing a consultation that could result in the country's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales mandate being lowered to roughly 50-70pc of all new car sales by 2030 from 80pc at present. Carmakers have struggled to keep pace with the government's targets and warn that their costs are rising sharply as the mandates tighten further. This strain can be seen in sales data, with BEVs accounting for 23.4pc of all new car sales last year, against a 28pc government mandate. The gap between actual sales and the government target comes despite strong sales growth and heavy incentives. Growth has continued this year but is still trailing behind the government target, which has climbed to 33pc of all sales this year. This has pushed carmakers to work to close the gap through discounts, timing tactics and credit trading, to drive up consumer demand. Carmakers are able to meet the ZEV requirement by banking credits, borrowing from future years or pooling performance — a system that has allowed compliance even when their annual averages lag. Sales tend to spike around the March plate change and April tax deadline , somewhat offsetting weaker periods. Industry-wide BEV discounting has exceeded £10bn ($13bn) over the past two years, in order to induce demand, UK trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) says. This is equivalent to an average discount of almost £12,000/vehicle, which is a level that industry cannot sustain, the SMMT says. Other parties are more conservative, with retail platform Autotrader and consultancy Jato estimating an average discount of around £5,500/vehicle, clean energy think-tank Transport and Environment says. Some energy firms and campaign groups are pushing back against the government's proposal to weaken the rules. The government has chosen to side with short-termist incumbent lobbying instead of support the long-term future of industry, UK utility Octopus Energy founder Greg Jackson said. Fewer EV sales would result in higher electricity system costs, Jackson said. Repeated policy changes risk deterring investment, charging firms and advocacy groups warn. Policy instability "creates uncertainty for drivers and businesses, undermines confidence and makes investment decisions harder", industry body Electric Vehicles UK chief executive Tanya Sinclair said. And the market remains reliant on support measures. BEV uptake has been largely driven by corporate fleets and tax perks in recent years, with private demand remaining weak . Sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles have grown faster when confidence in fully electric cars dips, reflecting concern over upfront costs and charging access. The implications of this for the wider energy system are material, Transport and Environment said. Cars consume about 1bn bl of oil in Europe each year, costing the region about €67bn ($78bn) in imports last year, according to the think-tank. EVs are starting to reduce that exposure, with existing fleets saving around 46mn bl of oil in 2025 alone. This has cut import costs and dampened Europe's exposure to fuel price shocks. But weakening ZEV pathways would partly reverse that shift. A less ambitious trajectory across Europe could raise oil demand by hundreds of millions of barrels over the next decade, increasing import costs and leaving drivers more exposed to volatile oil markets, Transport and Environment said. By Chris Welch Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Bilateral UN carbon market under scrutiny
Bilateral UN carbon market under scrutiny
Berlin, 15 June (Argus) — Bilateral carbon trading under the Paris agreement has come under scrutiny for insufficient environmental integrity at the Bonn climate talks, a halfway conference between UN Cop climate summits. Buyer and seller countries under Article 6.2 of the Paris agreement in Bonn defended the "inconsistencies" identified in the mandated initial reports submitted. A total of 23 countries, about half of those active under Article 6.2, have submitted reports so far. Technical reviews of the reports undertaken by UN climate arm UNFCCC had identified issues such as insufficiently conservative baselines against which emissions reductions are measured, and non-permanence of nature-based activities. The reviews also suggested a lack of alignment between carbon activities and countries' climate plans and long-term low-emission development strategies under the Paris agreement, known as nationally determined contributions and LT-LEDS, respectively. Countries active in Article 6.2 cautioned against treating every inconsistency as proof of a defective activity, arguing that many findings may reflect weaknesses in reporting rather than in the underlying co-operation. Diversity should be seen as a strength of Article 6.2, as it allows markets space and time to evolve, a delegate for the Like-Minded Developing Countries bloc said. Switzerland, an Article 6.2 frontrunner, said that it had chosen a project-by-project pathway, scrutinising the project as well as the underlying methodology, drawing on the expertise of its environment ministry and external experts including rating agencies. The Swiss delegate said that "experience" had shown that "the same methodology can be applied in very different ways with very different outcomes", arguing that strict methodologies do not always do justice to individual projects, such as clean cookstove projects. As a result, Switzerland has in some cases set up a "mini carbon-crediting standard" for a co-operation, the delegate said. Japan, which under its Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) has signed the most bilateral agreements of any host country, stressed that it has no intention to align the JCM with the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (Pacm) under Article 6.4 of the Paris deal, emphasising the JCM's "conservative" baseline. But an EU delegate argued that a closer alignment between Pacm rules and Article 6.2 would "considerably" reduce inconsistencies, given Pacm's "well-known" and "helpful" methodological tools such as the downward adjustments to baselines. Some delegates and observers voiced their concern about the lack of rules on the reversal of emissions removals under Article 6.2. The EU delegate flagged the "challenges" of this issue, which even the Pacm regulator is finding "very" difficult to address. It is not clear, for instance, what will happen if there are insufficient credits in the buffer pool designed to compensate for reversals, the EU said. Switzerland is looking at potential closer alignment between Article 6.2 and Pacm, but this would depend on the future choices made under Pacm, the Swiss delegate said. The African group delegate urged Article 6.2 host countries only to submit their initial reports once domestic institutional arrangements and robust standards are in place. South Korea-based Global Green Growth Institute's head of carbon pricing, Fenella Aouane, flagged the struggle many host countries face in developing vital institutional arrangements for Article 6.2 activities such as monitoring, reporting and verification provisions, or domestic registries. No agreement was reached at the talks on how "prescriptive" Article 6.2 should become. Another issue without agreement was revised funding arrangements for Article 6.2 activities, given that the UNFCCC faces an estimated financing gap of about €8mn–9mn to 2027. Developing country groups warned against any financing that could create new barriers to participation, while developed countries called for self-financing models. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Energy transition must 'reflect national circumstances'
Energy transition must 'reflect national circumstances'
Sao Paulo, 12 June (Argus) — The roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels being drafted by the UN Cop 30 climate summit's presidency will "reflect diverse national circumstances", the Cop 30 presidency said on Friday during the Bonn climate talks. The roadmap — which was first proposed by Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva during Cop 30 , held in Brazil last November — will consider "different levels of socioeconomic development, energy access, fossil fuel dependency and capacity to transition", among other factors, the Cop 30 presidency said. The roadmap has so far received input from 115 countries and 247 non-state actors, the presidency said. The Cop 30 presidency has so far identified four main levers to accelerate the roadmap's implementation: Reforming the international financial architecture, which would include linking debt-relief mechanisms to the transition away from fossil fuels and increasing access to concessional finance and global carbon markets; Strengthening capacity-building, enabling technology sharing, in particular in transportation, supporting innovation in hard-to-abate sectors and increasing energy efficiency and electrification rates; Implementing regional and global cooperation mechanisms to reform international trade and legal framework for investments, and foster producer-consumer dialogue; Prioritizing the just transition, particularly for fossil fuel-dependent economies, by addressing competing development priorities, with information integrity and building trust across countries at different stages of development. During the meeting, a representative from the International Renewable Energy Agency agreed that electrification will be key to the global transition away from fossil fuels. The topic is set to take center stage during Cop 31, which will be held in Turkey in November, as that country has proposed a global goal for electricity to reach 35pc of global final energy consumption by 2035 as part of its action agenda. Some of the main barriers encountered so far for the transition away from fossil fuels are "structural imbalances in the global financial architecture, insufficient de-risking mechanisms and continued international finance flows towards fossil projects", the Cop 30 presidency added. The presidency has also found that the concentration of clean energy supply chains, the high-cost nature of nascent, hard-to-abate solutions, and limited technology sharing, as well as the absence of dedicated transition coordination mechanisms, also hinder the transition. Other factors such as insufficient political leadership, geopolitical uncertainty and armed conflicts — such as the Iran war — and outdated legal and trade frameworks are also hurdles for the transition. "The recent geopolitical crisis has shown very clearly how fossil fuels are linked to vulnerabilities, and we need to address this in the roadmap," Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said. But the roadmap's implementation will be much easier than other climate negotiations, he added. "The great advantage of implementation is that we have much more freedom to implement than to negotiate," he said. "Negotiation requires consensus; implementation does not." The Cop 30 presidency expects to unveil the roadmap during Cop 31. It is also working on a roadmap to address deforestation, which it will also unveil at Cop 31. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Analysis
Country focus
France's fossil fuel roadmap a key step: think tanks
France's fossil fuel roadmap a key step: think tanks
Edinburgh, 29 April (Argus) — France's roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, which combines energy policies and climate targets in one document, is an important step, even though no new goals were announced, energy and climate think tanks said today. France released the roadmap yesterday, during the first conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, ongoing in Santa Marta, Colombia. The plan matches France's climate goals with its energy policies in one document, including its national low carbon strategy and its new electrification plan set out in April . It reiterates the country's goal to move from a share of around 60pc fossil fuels in final energy consumption in 2023 to 40pc in 2030 and 30pc in 2035, to reach net zero emissions in 2050. The government plans to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and natural gas by 2050, under its national low carbon strategy and its roadmap. "France is one of the few countries in the world to have such a precise schedule for a gradual exit from fossil fuels," the French environment ministry said. The French roadmap aims to inspire partner countries on long-term planning, it said. France's last two remaining coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close or be converted by next year. The roadmap also states that over 95pc of fossil fuels burned in the country are imported. France eyes a 50pc reduction in gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared with 1990, to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Although the country did not announce new goals, the roadmap sends an important signal, think-tank International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) energy policy advisor Natalie Jones said. "Higher ambition and not solely repackaging existing policies would have been even better, but an explicit fossil fuel phase strategy, with timelines, is new and welcome," she said. She added that the framing of the roadmap in relation to UN Cop climate summits, the global stocktake and climate action is significant. The first global stocktake, agreed on in 2023 at Cop 28, called for a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "Few countries tackle all fossil fuels together — this gives other countries a critical opportunity to follow suit, while fossil fuel-producing nations can also lay out plans to diversify their economies as global demand for fossil fuels wanes in the decades ahead," said global research organisation WRI director of international climate action David Waskow. Asked about whether other EU countries could release fossil fuel transition roadmaps in the future, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra yesterday said that whether roadmaps are "specifically about phasing out fossil fuels… is secondary to impact". He reiterated the EU's goals — net zero emissions by 2050 and a 55pc reduction for 2030, from 1990 levels — pointing out that the wording is about reducing emissions rather than specifically phasing out fossil fuels. The "reality is… the same, you cannot be at 90pc [of emission cuts] in 2040 if you will not radically phase out fossil fuels", Hoekstra said. The EU updated its climate law earlier this year to add a 90pc GHG reduction by 2040, from 1990 levels, although up to 5pc of the target can be met using international carbon credits. Fossil fuel producer Colombia also presented a draft fossil fuel transition roadmap this week, developed with researchers, and designed to act as a potential standard for other countries to use. It aims to achieve a 90pc reduction in primary fossil fuel demand over 2026-50, and a 90pc cut in "whole energy system emissions" from 2015-50, while expanding access to energy. The plan pointed to the country's dependence on fossil fuels for revenues. Colombia exports oil and coal worth $25bn, against around $1bn in fossil fuel imports — mainly oil products, according to the roadmap. By Caroline Varin and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
No clear timeline for Brazil fossil fuel phase out
No clear timeline for Brazil fossil fuel phase out
Santa Marta, 28 April (Argus) — Brazil has no set timeline to publish its roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, the environment ministry's secretary for climate change Aloisio de Melo told Argus . Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 8 December asked the energy, environment and finance ministries to draft a resolution by February mapping out the phase-out of fossil fuels. That had followed Lula's previous calls to create an international plan to move away from fossil fuels during a leaders' summit only a few days before the UN Cop 30 climate summit held in November in Brazil. But the call did not make it to the summit's final decision despite backing´ from over 80 countries . Instead, the Cop 30 presidency pledged to create a roadmap on the issue outside of official negotiations. But the Brazilian ministries never published the resolution requested by Lula. Instead, the plan has been submitted to the national energy policy council, which will be responsible for developing it, de Melo said in the sidelines of the First Conference on the Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels , being held in Santa Marta, Colombia, from 24-29 April. The process to draft Brazil's roadmap has many moving parts and will "involve a lot of dialogue", de Melo said. "It's a process and we're not simplifying the approach," he said. "It's not just a matter of having big long-term goals, but of having a real trajectory with clear milestones, instruments, means and so on," which is "much more complex", he he said. One of the discussions surrounding the roadmap is its timeline, de Melo said, adding that the process "will take quite a bit of time" because it needs to have "a strong, solid institutional base that truly integrates with Brazil's energy planning". "It's not about having a document with some grand speeches and messages, but something that is actually consistent, solid and guiding over time and that transcends presidential administrations", he said. Phasing out fossil fuels could run counter to Brazil's plans of increasing crude production. It produces around 4mn b/d of crude , making it one of the 10 largest producers globally, according to its hydrocarbon regulator ANP. The country plans to expand crude output to 5.3mn b/d by 2030, according to energy research bureau Epe, hinging on new exploratory frontiers such as the southern Pelotas basin and the environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. But the production goals and the roadmap can coexist, de Melo said. The plan will focus on some decarbonization solutions that are "more or less ready and actionable" such as biofuels, he said. "But there are other solutions that are in the development and finalization phase." Additionally, Brazil's planned production growth will not take place in the short term, he said. So there is time to see how fossil fuels, mainly for transportation, will be used in a cleaner energy matrix over time. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Washington still aiming for 2027 GHG market link
Washington still aiming for 2027 GHG market link
Houston, 22 April (Argus) — Washington state is still eyeing 2027 for when it could join the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) carbon market, despite numerous regulatory and political hurdles, the state's Department of Ecology said on Wednesday. Ecology estimates its cap-and-invest program could join the WCI before the state's 1 November 2027 deadline for regulated participants to cover their outstanding emissions for 2023-26, the agency said at a public hearing on the recent draft linkage agreement . Current WCI partners California and Quebec are working to amend their respective program regulations this year. Both have indicated they prefer to finish their work first before fully turning their attention to linkage with Washington. But that does not mean that regulators from California, Quebec and Washington are not also advancing their required steps for linkage in parallel to any regulatory changes. "We expect we could complete the linkage agreement in 2026 and link in 2027, and this is including discussions with California and Quebec," Ecology senior planner for linkage Stephanie Potts said. Quebec's link with the California cap-and-trade program took more than a year to finalize, after work started in 2014, while the process with former WCI member Ontario took just months before it joined at the start of 2018. Ecology must also finish its current rulemaking to align the state's program with the WCI, with a final proposal expected in spring and adoption in summer. The agency must also finalize the required environmental justice assessment (EJA), Climate Commitment Act linkage criteria findings and then formally decide to link. California and Quebec will also need to amend their regulations to accept Washington Carbon Allowances (WCAs). California also requires a linkage report and findings from the governor's office to evaluate the stringency of Washington's cap-and-invest program. One new area of consideration is the shared electricity market between Washington and California. Both states need to align their coverage for electric power entities and their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ensuring neither has an advantage over the other, Potts said. Washington is working on regulations for imported electricity in its program as part of its linkage-related rulemaking. Quebec remains a point of uncertainty in the process. The province's environment ministry again delayed publishing its draft amendments earlier this month, while the new premier, Christine Frechette of Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), forms her government. Quebec is also holding a general election on 5 October, which looks likely to change political leadership in the province. A Leger-Quebecor poll of roughly 1,000 eligible voters over 17-20 April shows Parti Quebecois at 31pc of support, with CAQ trailing in third place at 17pc. California will also hold its election on 3 November to replace governor Gavin Newsom (D), who is ending his final term this year. "Changes in government have not inhibited staff from continuing to work together on this process, to share information and move the process forward," Potts said. Ecology will hold another public hearing on its draft linkage agreement on 22 April and is accepting public comment through 6 May. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil climate plan cites risks to grid, fuels
Brazil climate plan cites risks to grid, fuels
Sao Paulo, 2 April (Argus) — Brazil's long-delayed climate plan issued in March highlighted how extreme weather stemming from climate change could hurt its power grid and biofuels production, setting it back in achieving climate targets. The plan is Brazil's first comprehensive roadmap for meeting its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris agreement, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 59-67pc by 2035, from 2005 levels. Reaction to the plan from environmentalists was mixed. Amazon environmental research institute IPAM hailed the plan as a "reflection of Brazil commitment to mitigating climate change" and to "positioning the country as a global supplier of low-carbon products". But Brazilian climate think tank Observatorio do Clima called the plan unambitious and argued that it "caters to agribusiness". It also criticized the plan for failing to mention the phase out of fossil fuels. The plan underscores rising risks to the power sector owing to climate change, focusing on the impact that extreme weather is already having on generation, distribution and transmission. These threats include increased frequency and duration of droughts, more extreme rainfall, catastrophic wind events and more numerous heat waves. Drought is a top risk in the plan, owing to Brazil's continued dependence on hydroelectricity for its power supply. Even with the expansion of solar and wind generation, hydroelectricity met over 62pc of Brazil's power demand in 2025, according to the electricity sector clearinghouse CCEE. A recent study from the mines and energy ministry demonstrated that average water levels for hydroelectric reservoirs have declined sharply in the past decade: The 10-year moving average from 2023-2012 was 68pc, while the average from 2013–2022 fell to just 41pc of maximum capacity. The proposal seeks to expand and modernize existing hydroelectric plants to improve energy efficiency and increase installed capacity, with the goal of expanding installed capacity by 6.3GW by 2025. The plan also calls on the government to update electricity regulations to expand the use of energy storage batteries and pumped hydro plants. Reinforcing the grid The plan also foresees growing risks to the power transmission sector, which has suffered an increased number of outages because of extreme weather events, including flooding, high winds and fires. Record flooding in Rio Grande do Sul state in 2024, which resulted in extended power outages for more than 1mn people, forced the government to reassess its power transmission expansion plans for the state to increase resilience of infrastructure. The plan warned that transmission infrastructure is not designed to withstand extreme weather events and that poor engineering projects, combined with limited preventive maintenance, has increased the vulnerability of the grid. The plan includes the addition of more than 30,000km (18,640 miles) of transmission lines by 2035 and suggested that the new infrastructure be assessed to minimize the risk of weather. The plan also calls on the government to include new technologies for grid stabilization, such as reactive power support to control voltage, secondary frequency control to balance supply and demand, and self-restoration mechanisms that help restore power quickly after power outages. The plan also examines potential risks for the supply of biofuels, which play a central role in the decarbonization of Brazil's transport sector under the NDC. The plan calls for mandatory ethanol and biodiesel blends of 30pc and 20pc respectively in 2030, rising to 35pc and 25pc by 2035. To guarantee adequate supply, the plan calls on the government to promote research for the biofuels sector, focusing on the development and improvement of new crop varieties and diversification of feedstocks to produce biofuels. This includes crops that can grow in different regions and that are more resilient to climate change. It also calls on the government to promote irrigation in areas prone to drought, in an effort to limit its impact on production of sugarcane and other biofuel feedstock crops. Brazilian power generation by source % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.