Overview

Argus provides key insights on how global climate policies will affect the global energy and commodity markets. We shine a light on decisions made at UN Cop meetings, which have far-reaching effects on the markets we serve. Progress at Cop 30 in Brazil will be crucial in transforming ambitions into actions aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries must produce new climate plans this year.

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News

News
26/02/04

UK marginally narrows sixth carbon budget shortfall

UK marginally narrows sixth carbon budget shortfall

London, 4 February (Argus) — The gap between the UK's projected greenhouse gas emissions and meeting the country's sixth carbon budget has narrowed by 42mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) since last year, latest government data show. Government projections now assume a shortfall in the UK's emissions cuts of 737mn t CO2e against its sixth carbon budget of 965mn t CO2e, which covers 2033-37. This is down from a projected shortfall of 779mn t CO2e in last year's assessment. The country is expected to meet its fourth (2023-27) and fifth (2028-32) carbon budgets comfortably, with projected headroom of 126mn t CO2e and 86mn t CO2e, respectively, against targets of 1.95bn t CO2e and 1.73bn t CO2e. This is up from surpluses of 104mn t CO2e and 83mn t CO2e in last year's projections. The estimates stem from a projected 25pc fall in UK emissions in 2023-50, calculated on the basis of policies implemented or close to being finalised as of June 2025. New policies included since last year's projections include the Warm Homes Local Grant, the third wave of the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund, and collection and packaging reform policies affecting the waste sector. The new policies are projected to contribute 0.7mn t CO2e to emissions savings in the fourth budget, 9mn t CO2e in the fifth and 14mn t CO2e in the sixth. The sixth budget is the first to include emissions from UK international aviation and shipping, adding 24mn t CO2e to the 1990 base year emissions on which carbon budget calculations are based. The UK must set its seventh carbon budget, covering 2038-42, by June. It has a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The government has also updated projected average carbon prices under the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS), which it used as part of its new carbon budget calculations. The figures are not forecasts, but are designed for use for modelling purposes, and do not take into account any potential changes to the scope of the scheme or linkage to the EU ETS, negotiations on which continue. The government models four scenarios — one assuming decarbonisation in line with achieving net zero emissions by 2050; one assuming low fossil fuel prices and low economic growth; one assuming low fossil fuel prices and high economic growth; and one assuming "unobservable market factors" in the early years of the projections. These produce a range of £22-47/t CO2e in 2026, rising to £25-66/t CO2e in 2030, £74-178/t CO2e in 2040 and £167-298/t CO2e in 2050. The trajectories become steeper over time as carbon abatement options become more expensive, the government said. These have changed significantly from last year's ranges — £62-103/t CO2e in 2026, £50-107/t CO2e in 2030, £94-151/t CO2e in 2040 and £85-154/t CO2e in 2050 — because of adjustments to underlying business-as-usual emissions projections and corresponding marginal abatement cost curves, and assumptions relating to the power sector and interconnectors, the government said. By Victoria Hatherick UK ETS government price projections £/t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

EU eyes maritime decarbonisation, industry strategy


26/02/02
News
26/02/02

EU eyes maritime decarbonisation, industry strategy

Brussels, 2 February (Argus) — The European Commission is expected to publish a maritime manufacturing industrial strategy on 18 February, a leaked draft of which underscores the need for "mechanisms" to earmark national emission revenues for maritime decarbonisation. Beyond funds from a projected €10bn/yr by 2030 in national revenues raised from shipping emissions under the EU emissions trading system (ETS), the commission will make available 20mn ETS allowances assigned to the bloc's innovation fund for demonstration and pre-deployment — worth approximately €1.6bn — earmarked to support maritime emissions reductions until 2030. Future innovation fund calls for proposals could focus on production and uptake of renewable and low-carbon fuels. The draft, which is expected to change before final publication, said a commission-led task-force will explore additional technical support and "match-making" tools to connect ports, shipping companies, shipyards, equipment manufacturers and fuel producers. The commission will also leverage public and private funding towards "made in EU" vessels, technologies and equipment, boosting construction of next-generation low and zero-carbon vessels. It promises a "robust" policy framework for nuclear power propulsion in commercial shipping and commits to mobilising €800mn for shipbuilding, retrofitting, shipping and blue tech by 2028. The draft further calls for boosting wind-assisted propulsion using the EU's sustainable finance taxonomy. The upcoming revision of EU public procurement law will introduce targeted non-price requirements, including sustainability, circularity and made in EU criteria. Export credits will also include specific provisions for zero and low-emission ships. The commission plans to allocate €160mn to finance a Zero Emission Waterborne Transport programme until 2027, with an additional €8mn allocated to fuel cells. Officials will "streamline" existing monitoring, reporting and verification requirements under the EU ETS and the FuelEU Maritime regulation , which sets greenhouse gas intensity cuts for marine fuels used in ships over 5,000 gross tonnage, starting at 2pc in 2025 and reaching 80pc by 2050, against a 2020 baseline. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Slow UN carbon market advance on removals


26/02/02
News
26/02/02

Slow UN carbon market advance on removals

Berlin, 2 February (Argus) — The emerging UN carbon market under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, Pacm, saw slow progress last week on draft rules for carbon removals accounting, as experts tasked with working on new Pacm methodologies convened at the UN climate arm's headquarters in Bonn, Germany. The panel made some decisions on the so-called reversal assessment tool, which aims to determine the number of Pacm credits to contribute to the market's reversal risk buffer account, acting as a form of insurance for removal projects. The tool will help calculate individual risk factors, combined risks and the reduction in reversal risk factors, based on any remediation measures implemented by activity proponents. A buffer factor, expressed as a percentage of credited carbon, would then be calculated, depending on the choices made by project proponents. The higher the percentage, the more credits must be set aside for an activity. The panel will also determine specific activity risks, with an initial focus on forest carbon storage, geological carbon storage and biochar. These are not only the most prevalent removal activities in the carbon market, but also dominate those transitioning from Pacm's precursor, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The panel and the Article 6.4 supervisory body were tasked by countries at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil in November with prioritising CDM transitions . The panel will consider other types of removal activities at a later stage. More progress was made last week on the draft rules for renewable electricity generation, on which the panel released a draft methodology for supervisory body approval. It would become the second approved Pacm methodology, if adopted. The first methodology for generating carbon credits, on flaring or use of landfill gas, is regarded as substantially stricter than its CDM predecessor. Pacm's downward adjustment factor ensures that baseline emissions decline more significantly over time than under the CDM. South Korea-based carbon project developer Ecoeye said under the Pacm landfill gas methodology, flaring-only projects carried out in host countries outside least developed countries are likely to experience a 52–76pc reduction in credited emission reductions, compared with CDM-based estimates, over a five-year period, while for electricity generation and heat production it projects a 34–42pc reduction. The potential third Pacm methodology to be adopted, on clean cooking, considers new submissions while carrying over some elements from an existing CDM methodology. Another methodology under consideration, on nitrous oxide abatement from nitric acid production, might also see a draft proposal at the next expert panel meeting in March. Six new Pacm methodologies in total are under consideration. The latest entry is on fertiliser production with renewables-based ammonia, for which a call for public input closed on 27 January. The panel is considering merging this methodology — the development of which was financed by the Germany-supported International Hydrogen Ramp-Up Programme — with another for ammonia production through electrolysis. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

France lagging on renewables directive: commission


26/02/02
News
26/02/02

France lagging on renewables directive: commission

London, 2 February (Argus) — France has still not fully transposed the renewable energy directive (RED III) into national law, the European commission has found, and now has two months to complete transposition before the commission may begin court proceedings. RED III entered into force in November 2023, and had to be transposed into national law by 1 July 2024. It includes a Europe-wide target for renewable sources to make up 42.5pc of final energy consumption by 2030, as well as provisions on accelerating permitting for renewables and grid infrastructure, imposing time limits on approvals and presumptions of public interest. France received a formal notice of failure to fully transpose the directive in September 2024, along with 25 other member states. It was then in February last year one of eight states to receive a reasoned opinion from the commission for failing to show that its transposition measures achieved the objectives of the directive, before receiving a further reasoned opinion last week. The commission could refer France to the court of justice of the European Union, and request financial sanctions be imposed, it said. Renewable energy made up 22.4pc of France's final energy consumption in 2023, slightly below the EU-27 average of 24.6pc. The country's 2019 climate law set a target of 33pc by 2030. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Kenyan carbon developer Koko shuts operations


26/02/02
News
26/02/02

Kenyan carbon developer Koko shuts operations

London, 2 February (Argus) — Kenyan clean cookstoves developer Koko Networks is shutting down operations and filing for insolvency after delays in obtaining a letter of authorisation from the government, a source said. The developer could not continue subsidising the bioethanol in its automated fuel dispensers because its revenue dried up while waiting for its Gold Standard-hosted 11440 project to be approved under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia), the source said. A letter of authorisation said the country intends to apply a corresponding adjustment to carbon credits sold, meaning the resulting emissions reduction will not count towards its climate target under the UN Paris Agreement. This was the last requirement before Corsia approval. Koko obtained a political risk guarantee from the World Bank-backed Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency to replace credits if the corresponding adjustment were not applied in its biennial transparency report to the UN. In this case, Koko's business model relied on institutional carbon revenues from credits approved under the first phase of Corsia. "The project was not feasible on voluntary prices," the source said. The government's uncertainty about its capacity to grant corresponding adjustments while retaining enough emissions reductions to meet its Paris agreement targets caused the delays, the source said. Another clean cookstoves developer in the country, Circle Gas, obtained a letter of approval from the government last week, which paves the way for a letter of authorisation. Whether Koko will now pursue revenue under the high-integrity Core Carbon Principles (CCP) tag is unknown. The project had issued nearly 15mn credits, of which about 170,000 were retired. Market talk for its credits recently fell below their trading levels in July. Many of the 125,000 credits of 2022 vintage last traded in early-July at $11.50/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Offers for unknown quantities of Koko credits were $5/t CO2e in late December. Prices for CCP-tagged clean cookstoves credits are in the $9-11/t CO2e range, while standard clean cookstoves credits in Africa are trading at around $1-2/t CO2e. By Alexandra Luca Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Country focus
26/02/02

Dutch government focuses on power grids

Dutch government focuses on power grids

London, 2 February (Argus) — The new Dutch government is focusing on power grid congestion as its "top priority" for energy and climate, according to its coalition agreement released last week. The government will create a grid congestion "crisis act" to accelerate permitting and intervene if construction stagnates, it said. It has committed to a target of 40GW of offshore wind by 2040, with contracts for difference to be rolled out to support this goal, on the higher end of the 30-40GW range the previous government mooted in July to replace a goal of 50GW. And the SDE++ programme of subsidies for renewable generation is being extended, with six new tender rounds to come. The coalition document represents a compromise between the positions of the partners , left-wing D66 and centre-right CDA and VVD. D66's proposals to increase the country's carbon tax was not adopted, with the tax to be scrapped. But no more gas extraction permits are to be issued for the Wadden Sea, in line with the party's manifesto. The giant Groningen gas field, which shut down in October 2024, will remain closed. The coalition agreement includes a role for "blue" hydrogen made from gas in "scaling up the Dutch hydrogen supply chain" and commits to building at least four new nuclear power plants. Dutch grid operator association Netbeheer Nederland and energy association Energie Nederland welcomed the coalition document's focus on grids, but both warned that a focus on green electricity supply needed to be paired with an increase in demand. The coalition government holds 66 out of 150 seats in the lower house of parliament and will need the support of other parties to implement its agenda. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Climate ‘superfund’ bill revived in Rhode Island


26/01/30
Country focus
26/01/30

Climate ‘superfund’ bill revived in Rhode Island

Houston, 30 January (Argus) — Rhode Island lawmakers are making another attempt at passing legislation that would establish a climate "superfund" to hold large oil, natural gas and coal companies responsible for their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their associated harms. The bills, H7004 and S2024, were introduced to both houses of the state General Assembly earlier this month, state senator Linda Ujifusa (D) and representative Jennifer Boylan (D), the sponsors of the proposal, said on Thursday. The legislation would direct the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management (DEM) to identify and issue payment requirements to obligated entities within 18 months of its passage. Obligated entities would include fossil fuel companies that are responsible for at least 1bn metric tonnes of GHG emissions from 2000-2025 but would not include any that do not have "sufficient connection with the state." Entities covered under the bill would have to make the required payment within six months of being notified, though they could choose to do so in installments. Late payments would result in a penalty totaling to 10pc/yr of the unpaid amount. The bills, which are virtually identical, would also establish a "climate superfund account" where the payments would be deposited, which would then be used to fund any eligible projects identified by DEM. The agency as well as the attorney general's office would be given the authority to enforce the requirements under the proposal. The Rhode Island legislature considered a similar climate superfund bill last year , but it died in committee. Rhode Island is part of a growing number of states that have introduced or restarted efforts to establish a climate superfund law this year. New Jersey lawmakers introduced a bill earlier this month while Maine lawmakers advanced their own climate superfund bill on Wednesday. Vermont and New York remain the only states that have enacted climate superfund laws. Both are currently facing lawsuits from the federal government. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Brazil's Lula eyes draft to step away from fossil fuels


25/12/08
Country focus
25/12/08

Brazil's Lula eyes draft to step away from fossil fuels

Sao Paulo, 8 December (Argus) — Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for the country's own draft roadmap for a "just and planned" energy transition, focusing on the move away from fossil fuels, after leading efforts for such an international plan. Brazil's energy, environment and finance ministries, as well as the chief of staff, must draft a resolution by 60 days from 5 December, or by 3 February, according to a presidential decree published in the official gazette on 8 December. Lula called for the creation of an international roadmap to move away from fossil fuels during a leaders' summit only a few days before the UN Cop 30 climate summit. That led to over 80 countries supporting a call for a roadmap to be included in final agreements at Cop 30. But the proposal did not make it to the summit's final decision. Instead, the Cop 30 presidency pledged to create a roadmap on the issue outside of official negotiations. Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said recently that an initial draft of roadmap could be ready by April , when Colombia is set to host a global summit on the topic . Energy transition fund Lula also requested the creation of a draft resolution to "propose financing mechanisms to implement an energy transition policy", which would include creating an energy transition fund financed "by a portion of government revenues from oil and gas exploration". The ministries and chief of staff will also have 60 days from 5 December to draft this resolution. Lula had also asked oil and mining firms to pay their fair share of climate financing during a speech at Cop 30. This comes after similar efforts at previous climate summits. An initiative from the Cop 29 presidency called for a climate fund, capitalized with voluntary contributions from oil, coal and gas-producing countries and companies, to support developing economies in addressing climate change. But the fund was never set up and the topic slid from the agenda. Brazilian state-controlled oil firm Petrobras did not answer Argus ' requests for comments on the topic. Mining giant Vale declined to comment. But Brazil's oil, gas and biofuels institute IBP "recognizes the importance of creating a fund to finance energy transition and climate change projects and understands that the oil and gas sector can and should be part of the solution for this process", it told Argus . Brazil's oil and gas sector contributes with R325bn ($60.85bn)/yr in taxes and "part of this amount should be directed towards climate finance and a fair and efficient energy transition process", IBP said. But for that it is necessary to maintain oil and gas production, it said. Brazil has been steadily increasing its oil production. It produced 4.03mn b/d of crude in October , a 23pc increase from the same month in 2024, data from hydrocarbons regulator ANP show. The country has plans to expand oil production to 5.3mn b/d by 2030, according to energy research bureau Epe, hinging on new exploratory frontiers such as the southern Pelotas basin and the environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. IBP also argues that Brazil's oil sector already faces a large tax burden, with 66pc of all crude destined for the payment of taxes, fees and royalties. "We want to and will contribute, but it's necessary to point out that there's no way to create more burdens on the sector's supply chain", it said. The group argues that the fund's financing should come from the redistribution of current government oil and gas revenues. "Increasing taxation on oil and gas exploration and production could make future projects unfeasible," it said. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Cop: Denmark commits to new 2035 climate target


25/11/17
Country focus
25/11/17

Cop: Denmark commits to new 2035 climate target

London, 17 November (Argus) — Denmark has committed to a new, "very ambitious" climate target for 2035, to cut emissions by 82pc by 2035, from 1990 levels, the country's climate minister Lars Aagaard said today at the UN Cop 30 climate summit. Denmark was expected to communicate a 2035 target this year. It has a legally-binding target to reduce emissions by 70pc by 2030, from the same 1990 baseline. This new target for 2035 will be "binding", Aagaard said today. Independent advisory body the Danish Council on Climate Change previously found that under the country's current climate policy, projections indicate that Denmark would achieve emissions reductions of 78pc by 2035, from 1990 levels. Denmark's new target for 2035 goes beyond the EU's aim for the same timeframe. The bloc earlier this month finally reached agreement on climate goals for 2035 and 2040. It plans to cut emissions by 66.25-72.5pc by 2035, from 1990 levels. Denmark holds the rotating EU Council presidency until the end of the year. Aagaard has thus overseen much of the bloc's discussions of and decisions on new climate targets. Signatories to the Paris climate agreement are expected to establish new climate goals and submit plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), every five years, under the terms of the accord. Countries and jurisdictions are currently submitting NDCs for 2035, although these lack ambition to hit Paris-aligned targets . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Country focus

Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate


25/11/10
Country focus
25/11/10

Cop: California 'doubling down' on climate

Houston, 10 November (Argus) — California is "doubling down" on its climate policies and goals to mitigate the impact of policy shifts by US president Donald Trump, California state senator Josh Becker (D) said at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil. Becker indicated the state is still moving forward on its response to climate change, despite ongoing opposition from the federal government, including to the state's ability to regulate vehicle emissions, in a discussion on Monday around California's climate leadership under the Trump administration. Becker touted the continued emissions reductions for California's economy, which fell 3pc to 360.4mn metric tonnes (t) in 2023 from the prior year, primarily around transportation, the state's largest emitting sector, according to state data released last week. But California is still looking to keep momentum going, including reducing vehicle emissions after the Trump administration signed three congressional resolutions earlier this year to repeal EPA waivers for the state's own tailpipe CO2 rules. "Even though they took away our waiver to regulate transportation, we are now working with our air resources board to come up with legislation for next year to figure out a way around that," Becker said. The EPA previously granted a waiver allowing California to ban gas-powered vehicle sales by model year 2035, known as Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), along with mandates for zero-emission truck sales and more-stringent nitrogen oxide emission standards during former-president Joe Biden's administration. California, as part of a state coalition, is in ongoing legal disputes with the federal government and automotive manufacturers over the removal of its tailpipe waivers. But while the courts deliberate, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is weighing measures the state could take to keep the transition away from fossil fuel-based vehicles on track. CARB plans to consider adopting emergency regulations that would allow it to use tailpipe regulations built on previous federal waivers in a hearing later this month. California has had some climate successes this year despite federal headwinds, including the state legislature's extension in September of its "cap-and-invest" program to 2045. The program, which was previously set to end in 2030, will bring in roughly $5bn/yr that California can use for investments in programs and policies targeting emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience, Becker said. Becker held up the growing portfolio of clean electricity within the state, now 70pc from zero-emission sources, and the CARB's development of corporate climate disclosures as part of the state's ongoing climate policy efforts. California is seeking a 40pc reduction in emissions, compared to 1990 levels, statewide by 2030, and net-zero emissions in 2045. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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