Ammonia
Market moving insight on clean and conventional ammonia – delivering robust price assessments, actionable commentary, powerful data, vital analysis and outlooks
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:
- Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of conventional and clean ammonia prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
Divisions deepen over carbon pricing ahead of IMO talks
Divisions deepen over carbon pricing ahead of IMO talks
Dubai, 27 April (Argus) — Shipping industry groups and governments enter a critical round of talks at the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) this week facing deepening divisions over how to cut emissions, with no clear consensus on the design or cost of decarbonisation. The 84th meeting of the IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), being held in London, follows a previous meeting in October that ended without agreement on a global emissions framework. IMO secretary=general Arsenio Dominguez later described the outcome as a "small setback", while stressing that the sector's decarbonisation efforts remain on track. At the centre of the dispute is the proposed net-zero framework (NZF), which includes a carbon pricing mechanism intended to accelerate the shift to low-emission fuels. Supporters see the framework as a necessary investment signal, while critics warn it would impose costs the sector is not yet equipped to absorb. A coalition spanning shipowners, shipping companies and ship registries — including Liberia, Panama and the Marshall Islands, which together account for a large share of the global fleet — has called for alternative approaches to be considered. The group has warned that support for the NZF "in its current form" has eroded. It is pushing for a more flexible, technology-neutral framework that would allow continued use of transitional fuels such as LNG and biofuels, while avoiding penalty-based mechanisms that could raise costs for operators and consumers. In contrast, a separate coalition of ports, logistics firms and clean fuel developers has urged governments to adopt the NZF, arguing that further delays would undermine investment in alternative fuels and slow the energy transition. The divergence highlights a deeper split within the shipping ecosystem. Shipowners and flag states are prioritising cost, fuel availability and operational feasibility at a time of heightened disruption in energy markets caused by the Iran war, while fuel suppliers and infrastructure developers are seeking regulatory certainty to underpin long-term investments. EU countries are expected to continue backing a carbon levy. The US has opposed such measures, which contributed to the postponement of a decision at last year's IMO meeting. Dominguez has also pointed to the current geopolitical environment — including disruptions to energy markets and shipping routes — as reinforcing the need to balance energy security, affordability and sustainability, a dynamic increasingly shaping the sector's approach to decarbonisation. Industry sources aligned with developing countries within the IMO told Argus that proposals based on carbon pricing or penalty mechanisms risk distorting trade flows and placing a disproportionate burden on emerging economies. They instead favour a more "pragmatic" and technology-neutral approach that reflects differing levels of fuel availability, infrastructure and economic capacity. The sources added that support from major flag states is procedurally significant, noting that backing from countries representing a large share of the global fleet will be critical to reaching any agreement. The result is a negotiation that is as much about cost allocation and regulatory design as it is about climate ambition. With no final decision expected at this week's meeting, discussions are likely to extend through the year, leaving shipowners, fuel producers and investors facing continued uncertainty over the future regulatory framework. Shipping accounts for around 3pc of global emissions and carries roughly 80pc of world trade, underscoring the importance of the IMO process for global energy markets and supply chains. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India plans joint buying of fertilizers, raw materials
India plans joint buying of fertilizers, raw materials
London, 24 April (Argus) — India's fertilizer ministry has recommended that national fertilizer companies begin buying fertilizers and raw materials on a collective rather than individual basis. The ministry calls for a three-month period during which Indian fertilizer producers should join together as a consortium, aggregating their demand to ensure supply and competitive prices of key fertilizers such as DAP, MOP and NPS/NPKs as well as raw materials ammonia, sulphur, phosphoric acid, sulphuric acid and phosphate rock. The first step in this regard was taken on Friday, when IPL issued a tender to buy 1.6mn t of DAP and TSP on behalf of the industry — the same approach as has been taken with urea imports for many years. India has struggled to secure sufficient supply of these products following the closure of the strait of Hormuz. The Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry has called on the chemicals and fertilizers ministry to impose a minimum six-month ban on exports of elemental sulphur. By Bede Heren Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK's Atome takes FID on Paraguay green fertilizer plant
UK's Atome takes FID on Paraguay green fertilizer plant
Paris, 24 April (Argus) — UK fertilizer company Atome has taken a final investment decision (FID) on its 260,000 t/yr Villeta green fertilizers project in Paraguay. The decision follows several delays to the project, caused by engineering-phase setbacks. Atome listed on the London Stock Exchange in December 2021 and initially aimed to reach FID by mid-2022. Construction is planned to start "shortly" following FID and full production is expected to begin in or before October 2029, Atome said. The $665mn Villeta project is the largest electrolysis project to pass FID in Latin America. It will have a 120MW electrolyser, which will be powered by hydropower from state-owned utility Ande. Atome has secured financing for the Villeta project from a number of multilateral institutions and development banks, including the World Bank, the Green Climate Fund and the Inter-American Development Bank. But unlike most hydrogen projects globally, Atome has managed to reach FID without government subsidies. The project's equity investment is led by French hydrogen-focused fund Hy24 . Fertilizers produced in Villeta will be supplied to Norway's Yara under a binding 10-year offtake deal agreed last year , aiming to serve demand in South America. By Pamela Machado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Costly fertiliser could weigh on Polish power use
Costly fertiliser could weigh on Polish power use
London, 23 April (Argus) — The higher cost of natural gas due to the US-Iran war could limit production of fertilisers and chemicals in Poland, weighing on the industry's power consumption. Polish chemicals company Grupa Azoty — which has a 48pc share of the Polish fertiliser market — is still running at capacity, unlike during the energy crisis of 2022, the firm told Argus . But high gas prices could eventually weigh on production. Chemical industry power use Poland's chemical industry — covering fertilisers, oil products, petrochemicals and other products — consumed 7.3TWh of electricity in 2024, accounting for 4.42pc of Polish demand, according to the latest data from Statistics Poland. Consumption rose by 2pc/yr in 2014-21, reaching 8.27TWh in 2021. But production dropped in 2022, when the energy crisis hit, falling by 5pc and then by a further 13pc in 2023. And while consumption increased in 2024, it only recovered to 2016 levels. The increase in oil and gas prices because of the Middle East conflict since late February has pushed up producers' fuel and raw material costs. Energy can account for 50–80pc of chemical sector production costs, according to industry chamber PIPC. Nitrogenous fertilisers — which made up 75pc of Polish fertiliser production in 2021-25 — use gas as a feedstock and a fuel. The TTF everyday price has risen by 37pc since the start of the conflict and was 23pc up on the year in March. And the price of German CAN fertiliser — indicative of nitrogenous fertiliser prices in the region — has risen by €95/t to €437.50/t since 26 February . Continued disruption could curb demand if farmers use less fertiliser on crops in the face of rising costs, Grupa Azoty said. In 2022, Polish fertiliser output fell because of surging energy prices. Nitrogenous fertiliser production fell by 17pc in 2022 and by 15pc in 2023. But Polish producers might now be in a stronger position, as they face less competition from imports made with cheaper gas owing to new EU tariffs. And since the start of 2026, the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism adds a carbon charge to imports of fertilisers. Poland's fertiliser output was up by 2pc on the year to 411,000t in January-February, although output is still lower than pre-2022 levels. March figures have yet to be released. Little change in production methods Electricity demand in energy-intensive sectors, such as the manufacture of fertilisers and basic chemicals, is "expected to increase" in the longer term, driven by electrification and hydrogen production, PIPC told Argus, although it noted that Poland is constrained by a lack of "affordable renewable electricity and supporting infrastructure". So far, Grupa Azoty says there have have been no changes to production that would "materially" increase its electricity consumption. For now, it is focusing on efficiency improvements that could reduce gas use. Grupa Azoty is "analysing" the viability of partial electrification and adoption of low-emission and green ammonia in operations, but stressed that changes are contingent on "competitively priced" renewable energy. Wind and solar accounted for a combined 27pc of Polish generation last year. But 68pc was from gas, coal or lignite. Outlook for hydrogen in Polish fertilisers Hydrogen — a key component in ammonia — can be produced from natural gas or by electrolysis. Producing ammonia with hydrogen from electrolysis increases power input requirements to 9–12MWh per tonne, compared with roughly 1MWh needed for natural gas-based hydrogen, according to IEA estimates. Poland aims to build 2GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030. But none of Poland's industrial sectors has adopted electrolysis at scale yet, the climate and environment ministry has told Argus . Electrolysis capacity currently stands at 7.5MW. National development bank BGK agreed subsidies in October for five projects with a combined electrolysis capacity of 343MW. But no renewable hydrogen project has reached a final investment decision in Poland to date. Renewable power supply, grid infrastructure and storage capacity might not be sufficient to meet existing targets, PIPC told Argus . And the higher cost of renewable hydrogen relative to fossil-based hydrogen could further "weaken the competitiveness" of Poland's chemical industry. By Jessamy Guest Chemical power, gas use TWh (power LHS, gas RHS) Power consumption, fertiliser output TWh, mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
