Biofuels and feedstocks
Overview
Demand for biofuels is increasing significantly, driven by the need to decarbonise road transport as part of the energy transition. Global biofuels output is expected to rise by more than 3mn b/d in the next five years, and such rapid growth means that new challenges and opportunities are constantly emerging. Keeping on top of the ever-changing biofuels landscape requires accurate pricing, insightful analysis and access to the latest data.
The Argus biofuels solution provides in-depth pricing and market analysis across the entire global renewable fuel supply chain, from original feedstock to finished fuel, with prices and key insights into regional biodiesel, ethanol and feedstock markets.
Latest biofuels news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global biofuels industry.
US House readies E15 floor vote in May
US House readies E15 floor vote in May
New York, 30 April (Argus) — The US House of Representatives is planning to vote next month on a major biofuel policy reform bill after months of delays on an issue important for crop demand and fuel prices. The chamber will vote on a standalone biofuel bill on 13 May, Agriculture Committee chair Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) said on the House floor Thursday, after an earlier plan to pass the bill and merge it with a larger farm policy package sputtered . The latest proposal would remove summertime limits on gasoline with up to 15pc ethanol (E15), potentially encouraging broader sales of the typically-cheaper blend. It would also standardize the often-unpredictable process by which some oil refiners can win exemptions from a separate program that requires annual biofuel blending. The plan for a House vote is just the latest turn for E15 legislation, which has struggled to pass Congress for years now despite strong backing from farm-state lawmakers of both parties and a recent push from President Donald Trump. A council of Republican lawmakers had hoped to have biofuel legislation ready for a House floor vote in February, but a bloc of refiners has resisted. The latest proposal, while offering small companies automatic partial exemptions from biofuel quotas, would cut off some larger enterprises that today can win relief for smaller units they own. Under current rules, refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude can request hardship exemptions — but under the proposal, only companies with no more than 75,000 b/d of collective gasoline and diesel refining capacity could win relief. There is a limited carveout in the proposal for some facilities that can prove they are at risk of closing and a system to compensate some unnamed small refinery owners for past compliance by giving them special program credits that do not expire. The framework is backed by not just farm advocates but also oil majors, who have been frustrated footing the bill for blending biofuels while some of their smaller competitors skirt the requirements. Some independent refiners remain hotly opposed, including those that would lose their ability to win exemptions and others that want deeper reforms to the biofuel mandate to temper costs. The cost to comply with the program has spiked to all-time highs, according to Argus calculations based on current credit pricing, after the Trump administration last month set blend mandates at record-high levels. It is unclear whether lawmakers will consider new changes to the existing E15 proposal — especially after oil and farm groups alike reacted coolly to the House task force's prior ideas — or if the planned vote will be punted yet again. Some Democrats have endorsed the latest deal, seeing it as a way to help out corn farmers and temper pump prices that are soaring because of war in the Middle East, and criticized Republicans for their infighting. "Forgive my skepticism, but this certainly looks like every time we have a deal for a vote on year-round E15, there is an uprising in the Republican caucus," said House Agriculture Committee ranking member Angie Craig (D-Minnesota). There are also significant obstacles to any biofuel proposal in the US Senate. Agriculture Committee chair John Boozman (R-Arkansas), who has major power over the Farm Bill that biofuel advocates hope an E15 bill could be added to, has opposed efforts to restrict mandate exemptions that have benefited a refinery in his state. While the legislation would allow but not mandate year-round sales of E15, some longtime critics of biofuels in the chamber see the proposal as a stepping stone to steeper blend requirements. "Time to end ethanol tyranny," senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) said. E15 is not sold at the vast majority of retail fuel stations in the US, which ethanol advocates blame on regulatory uncertainty deterring retailers from investing in higher-blend infrastructure. The Trump administration last month issued emergency waivers allowing continued E15 sales this summer, but permanent access requires legislation. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU–Mercosur deal challenges Pakistan ethanol trade
EU–Mercosur deal challenges Pakistan ethanol trade
Mumbai, 30 April (Argus) — The EU's trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc is eroding the competitiveness of Pakistani ethanol exports to Europe by granting tariff concessions to Latin American producers, notably Brazil. The 27-member bloc will apply an interim trade agreement (iTA) from 1 May to Mercosur members Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The deal reduces tariffs on selected products and improves market access, giving Mercosur ethanol a cost advantage over Pakistani supply. Pakistan lost its tariff-free access to the EU last year, exposing its non-fuel ethanol exports to standard import duties and accelerating a decline in trade. The EU-Mercosur agreement introduces a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for ethanol, cutting or, in some cases, removing duties on fixed volumes from Mercosur countries. This particularly benefits Brazil, the EU's second-largest ethanol supplier. Brussels will allow 450,000t of Brazilian ethanol for industrial use duty-free and sharply reduce tariffs on a further 200,000t for all uses, including fuel. In total, 650,000t will fall under the TRQ. Previously, Mercosur ethanol faced standard import duties of €192/m³ for undenatured ethanol and €102/m³ for denatured ethanol. Pakistan, which had enjoyed duty-free access for non-fuel ethanol, became subject to these duties in mid-2025 after the EU revoked exemptions to restore what it called fair competition. Pakistan was the EU's largest supplier of non-fuel ethanol in 2024, exporting 130,894m³, according to customs data accessed through Global Trade Tracker. Exports fell by about 45pc in 2025 following the removal of its preferential access. The EU–Mercosur deal could accelerate this decline by reinforcing Brazil's cost advantage and displacing Pakistani supply in Europe. Moreover, Pakistan does not export fuel-grade ethanol to the EU because its production facilities lack compliance with the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) certification requirements. Fuel-grade ethanol still enjoys duty-free access under EU rules. RED certification requires minimum greenhouse gas savings, compliance with land-use sustainability rules, third-party audits and full traceability. Several Pakistani distilleries have acquired, or are seeking, certification to attract European buyers of anhydrous ethanol, a market source said. Brazilian supply weighs on prices While Pakistani export cargoes for the current quarter have largely been booked, traders report limited discussions for third-quarter shipments as buyers wait for Brazilian price indications, which have been delayed by a late sugarcane harvest. Brazil's sugarcane output in the centre-south region is forecast to reach 36.9mn m³ (363,900 b/d) in the 2026-27 season, the highest level in national supply company Conab's historical series. Brazil is also expected to produce a bumber corn crop in 2025-26, despite weather disruptions, reaching 139.6mn t, just below the previous season's record. Corn-based ethanol accounted for nearly 84pc of Brazil's biofuels output in the first half of March, totalling 386.6mn litres, offsetting weaker sugarcane ethanol production during the off-season. Output was 6pc higher than a year earlier, according to Unica data. Abundant feedstock supplies have weighed on Brazilian prices. Brazil's fob anhydrous ethanol was last assessed at $760.8/t on 29 April, below Pakistan's fob ethanol price of $790/t. Brazil's highly mechanised agriculture and large-scale corporate farming deliver higher yields per hectare, lowering production costs. Pakistan's smaller-scale operations and less efficient farming practices raise costs, said Rana Waseem Akhtar, general manager at Pakistan's Noon Sugar Mills. Shift to Asian Markets Weak European demand has pushed Pakistani exporters towards alternative markets. A lack of new EU orders for September arrival has led traders to focus on South Korea and Japan. One Pakistani producer said the company moved away from Europe in the second half of last year, shifting sales towards east Asia and the Middle East. Bulk shipments have declined, while containerised exports to eastern Asian buyers have increased. South Korea has recently raised imports of Pakistani extra neutral alcohol (ENA), helping to limit downward price pressure. Korean buyers prefer containerised cargoes because of shorter delivery times, a Pakistani seller said. By contrast, US supply often requires bulk shipments that tie up capital for 60–90 days. Another producer said it has developed new customers in Taiwan, recently shipping ethanol in ISO tanks. Some traders remain cautiously optimistic about European demand, citing Pakistan's high ethanol quality. South American volumes require further purification to meet food-grade standards, adding time and cost, a Pakistan-based trader said. By Nikhil Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Forest loss fell in 2025, but from record high: Report
Forest loss fell in 2025, but from record high: Report
London, 29 April (Argus) — Tropical rainforest loss declined in 2025, albeit from a record high rate, according to data from the University of Maryland via non-profit World Resources Institute's (WRI) Global Forest Watch platform. Tropical forest loss fell by 36pc on the year in 2025, although 2024 marked a record high level, with fires the main cause, Global Forest Watch data show. The world lost 4.3mn hectares of tropical primary rainforest in 2025, down from 6.7mn ha in 2024. Although the rate of forest loss declined on the year, it remains 46pc higher than a decade ago, Global Forest watch data show. The drop in tropical forest loss "is encouraging — it shows what decisive government action can achieve. But part of the decline reflects a lull after an extreme fire year. Fires and climate change are feeding off each other… investments in prevention and response will be critical as extreme fire conditions become the norm", Global Forest Watch co-director Elizabeth Goldman said. Global tree cover loss in 2025 stood at 25.5mn ha, down from 30mn ha in 2024. Tree cover loss includes primary and secondary forests, and tree plantations, and does not account for gains in tree cover over the same period. Fires accounted for 42pc of tree cover loss overall in 2025, WRI said. Global Forest Watch focuses on tropical primary forests, as that is where 94pc of deforestation — purposeful, long-term removal of forest — occurs. Mature tropical forests are key natural carbon sinks, as well as crucial for biodiversity and regulating regional and local climate. Countries including Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and Malaysia "reduced or at least stabilised their forest loss in 2025", owing to "changes in policy, improved law enforcement and voluntary corporate actions to limit forest clearing", Global Forest Watch said. Brazil "substantially reduced" its primary forest loss in 2025, and the country experienced its lowest level of "non-fire" primary forest loss on record, the data show. The decrease in forest loss is linked to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's strengthened environmental policies and enforcement of these. Brazil, which hosted the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November, used the event to put deforestation in the spotlight. It launched a fund, the Tropical Forests Forever Facility , which aims to curb deforestation by paying developing countries $4/ha for preserved tropical forests, and called for proposals for two roadmaps , on ending deforestation and phasing out fossil fuels. The Cop 30 presidency received 177 submissions for the deforestation roadmap, representing over 140 countries, it said this week. Data from non-profit Global Canopy earlier this month suggested that EU regulation is already having an effect on action to tackle deforestation, even though it is yet to come into force. University of Maryland and Global Forest Watch data start in 2001. The organisations' reports use the term forest loss rather than deforestation, as it is not always possible to determine the causes. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Divisions deepen over carbon pricing ahead of IMO talks
Divisions deepen over carbon pricing ahead of IMO talks
Dubai, 27 April (Argus) — Shipping industry groups and governments enter a critical round of talks at the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) this week facing deepening divisions over how to cut emissions, with no clear consensus on the design or cost of decarbonisation. The 84th meeting of the IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), being held in London, follows a previous meeting in October that ended without agreement on a global emissions framework. IMO secretary=general Arsenio Dominguez later described the outcome as a "small setback", while stressing that the sector's decarbonisation efforts remain on track. At the centre of the dispute is the proposed net-zero framework (NZF), which includes a carbon pricing mechanism intended to accelerate the shift to low-emission fuels. Supporters see the framework as a necessary investment signal, while critics warn it would impose costs the sector is not yet equipped to absorb. A coalition spanning shipowners, shipping companies and ship registries — including Liberia, Panama and the Marshall Islands, which together account for a large share of the global fleet — has called for alternative approaches to be considered. The group has warned that support for the NZF "in its current form" has eroded. It is pushing for a more flexible, technology-neutral framework that would allow continued use of transitional fuels such as LNG and biofuels, while avoiding penalty-based mechanisms that could raise costs for operators and consumers. In contrast, a separate coalition of ports, logistics firms and clean fuel developers has urged governments to adopt the NZF, arguing that further delays would undermine investment in alternative fuels and slow the energy transition. The divergence highlights a deeper split within the shipping ecosystem. Shipowners and flag states are prioritising cost, fuel availability and operational feasibility at a time of heightened disruption in energy markets caused by the Iran war, while fuel suppliers and infrastructure developers are seeking regulatory certainty to underpin long-term investments. EU countries are expected to continue backing a carbon levy. The US has opposed such measures, which contributed to the postponement of a decision at last year's IMO meeting. Dominguez has also pointed to the current geopolitical environment — including disruptions to energy markets and shipping routes — as reinforcing the need to balance energy security, affordability and sustainability, a dynamic increasingly shaping the sector's approach to decarbonisation. Industry sources aligned with developing countries within the IMO told Argus that proposals based on carbon pricing or penalty mechanisms risk distorting trade flows and placing a disproportionate burden on emerging economies. They instead favour a more "pragmatic" and technology-neutral approach that reflects differing levels of fuel availability, infrastructure and economic capacity. The sources added that support from major flag states is procedurally significant, noting that backing from countries representing a large share of the global fleet will be critical to reaching any agreement. The result is a negotiation that is as much about cost allocation and regulatory design as it is about climate ambition. With no final decision expected at this week's meeting, discussions are likely to extend through the year, leaving shipowners, fuel producers and investors facing continued uncertainty over the future regulatory framework. Shipping accounts for around 3pc of global emissions and carries roughly 80pc of world trade, underscoring the importance of the IMO process for global energy markets and supply chains. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Spotlight content
Browse the latest thought leadership produced by our global team of experts.
Explore our biofuels products
Key price assessments
Argus prices are recognised by the market as trusted and reliable indicators of the real market value. Explore some of our most widely used and relevant price assessments.
