Biofuels and feedstocks
Overview
Demand for biofuels is increasing significantly, driven by the need to decarbonise road transport as part of the energy transition. Global biofuels output is expected to rise by more than 3mn b/d in the next five years, and such rapid growth means that new challenges and opportunities are constantly emerging. Keeping on top of the ever-changing biofuels landscape requires accurate pricing, insightful analysis and access to the latest data.
The Argus biofuels solution provides in-depth pricing and market analysis across the entire global renewable fuel supply chain, from original feedstock to finished fuel, with prices and key insights into regional biodiesel, ethanol and feedstock markets.
Latest biofuels news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global biofuels industry.
Viewpoint: Tax credits will shape US ethanol market
Viewpoint: Tax credits will shape US ethanol market
Houston, 24 December (Argus) — US ethanol investments and business decisions driven by 45Z and 45Q tax credits are slated to be the primary drivers of industry changes next year, as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) begins to take hold in the midcontinent and Gulf coast regions. Major ethanol producers such as Archer Daniels-Midland (ADM), Green Plains and POET are investing heavily in CCS, which captures CO2 generated from ethanol production. The captured carbon is then piped to sites with geological formations suitable for injection and storage, some of which are located around Wyoming, the Dakotas and in the US Gulf coast. Ethanol production in conjunction with CCS allows for a lower carbon intensity score and creates a more valuable product that is eligible for 45Z and 45Q incentives. Sustainable energy company Tallgrass has successfully injected carbon via its Trailblazer pipeline in southeastern Wyoming. But other CCS companies have had bumpier journeys. Summit Carbon Solutions was denied a pipeline permit earlier this year in South Dakota but has since made progress in other states through which the company is looking to build its pipeline. Further south, EPA in November granted Texas permission to issue permits for CCS wells . There are 61 well applications under review in Texas, one-third of which were received in the last 12 months, according to EPA. Besides the backlog, the CCS industry is outpacing federal agencies in other ways. The US Internal Revenue Service and Department of Treasury recently issued stopgap guidance in the event that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) tools for reporting CCS are not up and running by the middle of next year. Although tax credits allow for bigger producer opportunities, ethanol supply-demand fundamentals will be tested heading into next year. US ethanol production this year has reached all-time highs at multiple points, slowly driving ethanol stocks upward and putting more emphasis on currently robust export markets. Ethanol exports this year through September averaged 135,000 b/d, the highest level ever for the nine-month period in US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data going back to 2012. Market sentiment remains bullish on exports going into the first quarter, with robust demand coming from Canada, the UK and Europe, although trade routes are always subject to policy changes. Canada is mulling volume minimums to support domestic low-carbon fuels. Although not yet law, the bill indicates potential for Canadian renewable fuels to partially displace some US exports to that country. Domestic ethanol demand is poised to grow modestly over the next year as 15pc ethanol blends (E15) expand into new markets as the policy landscape becomes more welcoming. California passed legislation in October allowing E15 sales. However, the California Environmental Policy Council still needs to approve the legislation before the California Air Resources Board (CARB) can go about deciding how to implement the policy. The state's inclusion of E15 comes as oil refineries close and as the state faces a goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in a decade. At the federal level, fuel groups are lobbying to get the White House on board with a bill that would lead to higher ethanol blends year-round and remove the need for seasonal waivers from the EPA. Any permanent changes to year-round E15 would have to be in the form of legislation from Congress. Previous bills involving year-round E15 have been unsuccessful. Boosting biofuel blending has proven divisive as congress members attempt to manage interests from agricultural and oil constituents. By Thom Dwyer Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: LCFS ambitions lack diesel power
Viewpoint: LCFS ambitions lack diesel power
Houston, 24 December (Argus) — US low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs are rumbling toward their steepest targets yet with little of the fuel powering them in the tank. West coast regulators and lawmakers have approved ambitious reductions in carbon levels for automotive fuel following a four-year deluge of renewable diesel production. The fuel grew over that time into the largest source of new credits needed to meet California, Oregon and Washington regulatory obligations. But federal uncertainty and feedstock challenges this year have left renewable diesel producers spinning their wheels. West coast states have claimed up to 90pc of all US renewable diesel consumption in recent quarters. Made from seed oils, animal fats or used cooking oil, and in some of the same equipment used to produce petroleum diesel, the lower-carbon alternative remains chemically identical to its conventional cousin. This means it can move seamlessly in the same supply systems and engines, leaving customers to manage only the higher price. Renewable diesel accounted for nearly three-quarters of California's total liquid diesel pool early this year, up from just a quarter of state supply in 2020. Programs in Oregon and Washington lured the fuel further north to account for around 25pc of the total diesel in those markets during recent peaks. That consumption produced a torrent of credits for the state LCFS programs. The fuel has generated as much as 40pc of new California quarterly credits in recent years, helping credits grow to 1.8 times more than new deficits in 2024. Inundated by supply and concerned about biofuel reliance, California regulators finalized much tougher carbon targets that also limit the types of feedstocks, including for renewable diesels, eligible to meet them. LCFS programs reshaped both the domestic refining sector and the west coast road fuel markets with incentives driving lowest-carbon alternatives. But this year demonstrated that federal policy remains the heaviest hand on the wheel steering fuel decisions. Federal proposals to favor US producers and domestic oilseeds with tax and other incentives, alongside hostility toward foreign lower-carbon feedstocks and fuels, stifled renewable diesel output. Total renewable diesel supplied in the US during the first 10 months of the year fell by 19pc compared with the same period of 2024, the first year-over-year drop in supplies since 2018. Diamond Green Diesel, the largest US renewable diesel producer, left one of its production units idled for most of an unprofitable 2025. Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum reduced runs at California facilities converted to produce renewable diesel, while CVR Energy will convert units from renewable to conventional diesel production at its Wynnewood, Oklahoma refinery . Oregon demonstrated the west coast's diesel dependency earlier this year. When facility downtime and other factors cut renewable diesel deliveries in late 2024 and early 2025, credits available for LCFS compliance began to shrink. Credit prices more than doubled from May to July in response to data reporting the supply drop. California's gasoline carbon intensity limit will start next year 12pc lower than the targets in place in January 2025. Previous years have fallen by 1-2pc. The state will also soon limit credit generation from crop-based diesels to just 20pc of the volume supplied, and require verification standards that agribusiness groups have decried as overly onerous. Washington state lawmakers early this year adopted a 5pc tougher carbon intensity target for 2026 to rekindle alternative fuel incentives in the state. Credit generation has slowed amid declining renewable diesel supplies this year. The right price can inspire the right supplies, yet the cost of these state incentives ultimately adds to what drivers pay at the pump. Fears of retail price hikes helped slow the adoption of changes to the California LCFS programs this year. Growing national sensitivity to costs could add scrutiny to rising low-carbon incentives in 2026. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ausblick Biomethan: Chancen und Hindernisse im EU-Markt
Ausblick Biomethan: Chancen und Hindernisse im EU-Markt
Hamburg, 23 December (Argus) — Der europäische Biomethanmarkt wird in 2026 ein regional ungleichmäßiges Wachstum verzeichnen. Verzögerte Umsetzungen der RED III und ungelöste politische Fragen bremsen den Markthochlauf. Gleichzeitig bleibt die Schifffahrt ein zentraler Nachfragetreiber — vor allem für zertifiziertes, subventioniertes Biomethan. Die überarbeitete EU-Richtlinie für erneuerbare Energien (RED III) gibt den Mitgliedstaaten bis 2030 zwei Optionen, um die Klimaschutzziele der EU zu erreichen: Entweder können die Staaten ihre Treibhausgasemissionen bis 2030 um 14,5 % zu senken, oder sie können einen Anteil von 29 % ihres Energiebedarfs aus erneuerbaren Quellen decken. RED II verlangte lediglich einen Anteil von 14 % erneuerbarer Energien. Einige Länder wie Deutschland haben ihre nationalen Umsetzungspläne der Vorgaben von RED III bereits vorgestellt und planen, diese im kommenden Jahr umzusetzen. Mehrere Länder wie die Niederlande oder Frankreich setzen zukünftig auch auf ein THG-System, wie es in Deutschland nun schon seit Jahren existiert. Biomethan mit niedriger oder negativer Kohlenstoffintensität wird damit zum bevorzugten Kraftstoff, um die Verpflichtungen zu erfüllen — vor allem in den Niederlanden, wo es bisher hinter vergleichsweise günstigeren Biokraftstoffen zurückblieb. Eine weitere EU-Verordnung, die den Einsatz von Biomethan begünstigt, ist FuelEU Maritime. Diese trat im Januar 2025 in Kraft und verpflichtet Reedereien, die Emissionen ihrer Flotten in den Jahren 2025 und 2026 um jeweils 2 % pro Jahr zu senken. Übererfüllung kann über Pooling-Systeme vermarktet werden. Dies hat sich für das Bunkering von Bio-LNG in 2025 als besonders profitabel erweisen. Die Regelung hat die Preise für Herkunftsnachweise (HKNs, oder englisch: RGGOs) stark beeinflusst und dürfte 2026 weiter für Dynamik sorgen. Neue Systeme, entweder unter RED III oder nationalen Verpflichtungen, die 2026 in Kraft treten, werden Nachfrage erzeugen, die mit dem Bedarf aus der Schifffahrt um das Angebot konkurrieren muss. Der größte Teil des niederländischen und dänischen Biomethanangebots für 2026 ist bereits für den maritimen Sektor vorgesehen. Wachstum in den Niederlanden Neben der Umstellung auf die THG-basierte Verpflichtung im Rahmen des sogenannten ERE-Zertifikatssystem unter RED III haben die Niederlande im November mit der Arbeit an einer "Green Gas Blending Obligation" begonnen. Eine Umsetzung vor Ende 2027 erscheint zwar unwahrscheinlich, doch die Pläne stützen vorerst die Preise für HKNs. Die Liquidität von niederländischem Biomethan könnte steigen, wenn die Regierung die Massenbilanzierung von Biomethan genehmigt. Ein entsprechender Antrag wurde im November im Parlament eingebracht, doch eine jüngste Regierungsantwort deutet darauf hin, dass dieser nicht von Erfolg gekrönt sein wird. Bio-LNG muss, wie auch in Deutschland, unsubventioniert sein, zertifiziert sein und physisch geliefert werden, um sich für ERE-Zertifikate zu qualifizieren, andernfalls wird es bei der Berechnung des Gesamtmandats eines Kraftstoffanbieters mit einer fossilen CI von 94 g CO2e/MJ behandelt. Stabiles Deutschland, Frankreich Deutschland wird 2026 die Doppelanrechnung für fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe wie Biomethan auf die THG-Quote abschaffen. Bislang war dies stets ein großer Anreiz für den Einsatz von Biomethan als Kraftstoff. Trotzdem bleibt Biomethan in Deutschland der günstigste Weg, um die THG-Quote zu erfüllen, denn insbesondere güllebasiertes Biomethan hat ein konkurrenzloses Einsparungspotenzial. Auch die steigende THG-Quote könnte die Nachfrage stützen, jedoch bleibt der Absatzmarkt in Deutschland durch die limitierte Anzahl an LNG- und CNG-Fahrzeugen begrenzt. Frankreichs Beimischungspflicht für Biogas-Produktionszertifikate (CPB) tritt im Januar in Kraft und dürfte auch dort die Inlandsnachfrage deutlich ankurbeln. Die Umsetzung der RED III-Richtlinie, die ein neues, auf Treibhausgasen basiertes IRICC-Ticketsystem vorsieht, wurde jedoch auf 2027 verschoben. Das derzeitige energiebasierte TIRUERT-Ticketsystem für den Transport bleibt bis dahin bestehen, und bremst die Nutzung von Biomethan im Verkehrssektor. Ob IRICCs ab 2027 aus Biomethan generiert werden können, ist noch unklar. Die Verpflichtung, 3 % erneuerbares Gas im Verkehrssektor zu verwenden, tritt 2028 in Kraft und wird danach weiter ansteigen. Der grenzüberschreitende Handel und die Bunkerung von Bio-LNG dürften weiterhin eingeschränkt bleiben. Französisches Biomethan kann nur im Rahmen einer Ex-Domain-Annullierung exportiert werden, also durch die Löschung von HKNs in einem Land zur Verwendung in einem anderen. Dies birgt Risiken für Käufer, da die Eigentumsrechte an den Nachweisen nicht zwangsläufig übertragen werden. Subventioniertes Biomethan darf an französischen LNG-Terminals nicht für die Nutzung außerhalb des Landes verflüssigt werden. Französisches Bio-LNG muss über Massenbilanzierung an andere Terminals in der EU exportiert werden, um unter FuelEU Maritime genutzt zu werden. Großbritannien: Zugang zur EU unklar Der Zugang des Vereinigten Königreichs zu EU-Märkten hängt vom Zugang zur Unionsdatenbank für gasförmige Biokraftstoffe (UDB) ab, deren Start nun für Ende Sommer 2026 vorgesehen ist. Unklarheiten bei der Drittstaatenregelung könnten den EU-Handel einschränken — ein kritisches Thema, da das Vereinigte Königreich in den ersten drei Quartalen 2025 mehr als die Hälfte seiner HKNs exportierte, hauptsächlich nach Deutschland, Norwegen und in die Schweiz. Das Vereinigte Königreich prüft derzeit den Ersatz volumenbasierter RTFC-Tickets durch ein THG-basiertes System, doch Änderungen würden erst 2027 in Kraft treten. Fazit Insgesamt bleibt Biomethan in Europa in THG-basierten Systemen gut positioniert, doch Verzögerungen bei der Umsetzung von Vorschriften dürften das Gesamtwachstum des Marktes verlangsamen. Die Niederlande, Dänemark und Deutschland sollten weiterhin Anker für die europäische Preisbildung bleiben, und Spanien dürfte seine Rolle als maritimer Hub festigen. Doch mehrere Länder riskieren, zurückzufallen, wenn sie keine HKN-Register, Export-Hub-Zugänge, politische Anreize und Subventionsreformen einführen. Von Madeleine Jenkins & Svea Winter Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
Viewpoint: Policy delays refocus US SAF industry
Viewpoint: Policy delays refocus US SAF industry
Houston, 23 December (Argus) — US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production rose to a record this year, but mounting delays for policy clarity may send volumes abroad or force producers to dial back output in 2026. SAF output rose to an all-time high of 196mn USG through November of this year compared to 39mn USG in all of 2024, according to US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data. But growth next year is uncertain as the industry awaits final rules on a new biofuel tax credit, nearly a year after the US issued preliminary guidance. The Inflation Reduction Act's 40B SAF tax credit expired after 2024, ending a minimum $1.25/USG subsidy for producers and blenders of a fuel that produces half as many emissions as petroleum jet fuel. The move this year to the 45Z tax credit for all types of domestic clean fuel production was always expected to be rocky — in part because stricter carbon intensity rules left most types of SAF with less of a tax break than in 2024 — but the market also has been hurt by delayed final rules. The US government now expects to issue final regulations in the second quarter of 2026, though interim guidance could come sooner. Nonetheless, producers have begun selling 45Z credits at a discount to the book value of the credit. With producers looking for the market to rebound after a year of depressed margins and a drop in SAF values, this revenue stream is expected to become more common in future years but will still hinge on policy certainty. In a similar fashion, EPA expects to finalize new biofuel blend mandates in the first quarter next year, another delayed regulatory program affecting SAF margins. While jet fuel is not obligated under the program like conventional gasoline and diesel, SAF generates a D4 RIN that is used by refiners to show compliance with the EPA's standards. These RINs over the last five trading days were valued at about $1.08/RIN for credits with 2026 vintage . One USG of SAF generates 1.6 RIN credits, a substantial source of revenue for SAF producers and importers alike. EPA in a June proposal signaled a significant increase in the blending mandate in the category satisfied by D4 RINs. If EPA finalizes similarly ambitious quotas, it would support D4 prices and give SAF producers a boost in offering their product at a more competitive price. At the state level, multiple jurisdictions offer tax credits geared toward rewarding producers and airlines that increase SAF usage. The one that has made the most difference in boosting SAF demand is Illinois' $1.50/USG airline tax credit for SAF use. Minnesota has a similar policy. Washington, Nebraska and, most recently, Arkansas have enacted incentives available to SAF producers within their states. But those states have not produced any SAF that is not co-processed with petroleum fuel and they have no facilities being commissioned, according to Argus estimates. Uncertainty over federal policy continues to act as a roadblock for SAF producers looking to develop, finance, and bring their products to market in a timely and efficient way. The oldest tenured US producer of SAF, World Energy's facility in Torrance, California, was idled in July following a reorganization of refining assets. Industry newcomer XCF Global's plant in Reno, Nevada, is producing only renewable diesel, not SAF as originally planned, at least through 2025, spurred by difficult market conditions and lower demand. Given the absence of European-style SAF mandates in the US, domestic airlines are focused on meeting their minimum SAF usage goals at the lowest possible cost. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's attacks on climate change policy has eroded industry-wide SAF demand. SAF prices reached all time lows in December, valued as low as $3.52/USG in the US west coast. But that's still a considerable premium to petroleum jet fuel, meaning uptake will be limited in the US absent new policies. If final incentives are delayed further, and new state policies do not make up the difference, US SAF producers could have reason to send their fuel abroad. And if arbitrage opportunities fail to materialize, producers may dial back production or pivot to production of other renewable fuels. By Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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