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Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA
Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA
London, 11 December (Argus) — A large global oil surplus is masking regional tightness in crude and products markets, the IEA said today. In its final Oil Market Report (OMR) for 2025, the IEA said oil prices have only fallen modestly despite the large supply overhang because of "diverging dynamics" across crude, NGLs and products in different regions. This disconnect "notably reflects the high share of exports subject to sanctions (15pc of crude and 11pc of products), lengthening of supply routes and a tight refining system," it said. The IEA's global oil supply and demand balances imply a 3mn b/d supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, and more than 3.8mn b/d in 2026. While oil on water has been rising and inventories building in China — global observed inventories rose by 1.4mn b/d in October, to a four-year high, and preliminary data show a further increase in November — there has been a notable absence of stock builds in key Atlantic basin pricing hubs, the IEA said, which is supporting prices and keeping crude futures in backwardation. In products markets, refinery outages and a coming EU ban on imports of products derived from Russia crude has led to three-year high refining margins in November, the IEA said. This trend could continue in 2026 given "limited spare refining capacity outside of China." The IEA said NGLs are increasingly comprising a large share of the overall liquids supply surplus, limiting the overhang's effect on crude prices. The IEA upgraded its 2025 consumption growth forecast by 50,000 b/d to 830,000 b/d, based on an improving macroeconomic outlook and subsiding anxieties about trade tariffs. This would bring overall demand in 2025 to 103.92mn b/d. The IEA's first oil demand growth forecast for 2025, made in April 2024, had consumption growing by 1.15mn b/d. The IEA also upgraded its 2026 demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d, which would bring total demand to 104.79mn b/d. The IEA lowered its supply growth projection for 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 3.05mn b/d and for 2026 by 30,000 b/d to 2.45mn b/d. These were mainly because of disruptions to supplies in sanctioned countries such as Russia and Venezuela, the IEA said. This leaves supply forecast at 106.18mn b/d in 2025 and 108.63mn bd in 2026. The IEA said Russia's crude output fell by 210,000 b/d in November to 9mn b/d, which is 500,000 b/d below its Opec+ target for the month. Russia's oil exports fell by about 400,000 b/d in November to 6.9mn b/d, "as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions." Venezuela's crude output fell by 150,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d "as sanctions and rising geopolitical tensions with the US limited the country's ability to market its oil," the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saudi Arabia brings giant Jafurah gas project onstream
Saudi Arabia brings giant Jafurah gas project onstream
Dubai, 3 December (Argus) — Saudi state-controlled Aramco has begun production from the first phase of the giant Jafurah natural gas project, the finance ministry said late on Tuesday. In its 2026 budget statement, the finance ministry listed the phase one start-up as one of Saudi Arabia's achievements in 2025. It didn't specify a date, but it is likely to have been in the past few days. It said production began at 450mn ft³/d, which is two and a half times the rate at which Aramco had long projected. With in-place reserves of 229 trillion ft³ (6.87 trillion m³) of raw gas and 75bn bl of condensate, Jafurah is the largest unconventional gas field in the Mideast Gulf and represents a major pillar of Aramco's ambitious gas expansion plans. Aramco has yet to announce the start up. It previously said it expects to lift sales gas output ꟷ or net production ꟷ to 650mn ft³/d by the end of 2026 in phase one. It is unclear if this stronger-than-anticipated start-up rate could translate into a higher end-2026 target. A second phase is scheduled to come on stream in 2027, to lift production to 2bn ft³/d by the end of the decade, Aramco has said. Aramco has an ambitious programme to expand gas production by more than 80pc by the end of the decade, relative to a 2021 baseline of 9.2bn ft³/d. This implies output of at least 14.7bn ft³/d by 2030, with Jafurah delivering more than one-third of the increase. Jafurah will also produce about 420mn ft³/d of ethane and 630,000 b/d of NGLs and condensate as by-products by 2030. The ethane and NGLs will be sent to the Riyas fractionation plant, which is being built as part of the phase two development. The condensate will be sent to the Juaymah terminal, where Aramco is expanding its storage and export facilities. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
G20 launch clean cooking infrastructure investment plan
G20 launch clean cooking infrastructure investment plan
G20 leaders endorsed an infrastructure investment plan for Africa during last month's summit, writes Waldemar Jaszczyk London, 2 December (Argus) — South Africa succeeded in making access to clean cooking in Africa a defining issue of its G20 presidency following the summit in the country late last month, after leaders endorsed an infrastructure investment plan for the continent. But a combination of supply shortages and logistical bottlenecks are derailing the LPG market's expansion at home. The G20 leaders' declaration , adopted on 22 November at the summit in Johannesburg, launched the Voluntary Infrastructure Investment Action Plan to close the clean cooking access gap in sub-Saharan Africa. It provides the strongest political recognition to date of the clean cooking crisis in Africa, with explicit inclusion of LPG as a part of the solution. The group acknowledged access to such fuels as a global energy challenge, expressing deep alarm over 2mn deaths a year caused on the continent from indoor air pollution from traditional fuel use. All countries bar the US backed the plan. The plan outlines a set of voluntary measures required to scale up investment in fuels, infrastructure and last-mile distribution of clean cooking fuels, noting that 75pc of those in sub-Saharan Africa that gained access to clean cooking in the past five years was through LPG. It calls for African governments to align their energy and fiscal policies with clean cooking goals by elevating it as a national priority. Donor states were encouraged to increase concessional financing, with additional funding coming through long-term carbon credit offtake agreements and mobilising the private sector. The group also suggests establishing an infrastructure investment fund and risk-sharing instruments to increase lending to clean cooking companies. The World Liquid Gas Association (WLGA) calls the declaration a major opportunity to anchor LPG in clean cooking policy, financing, and development pathways across the continent. Standing elevation It was the first time clean cooking in Africa was elevated as a standing discussion item at a G20 summit. But South Africa's successes in this regard fails to reflect its struggles to transition to LPG at home, panellists said at the G20 Africa Energy Investment Forum held the previous day in Johannesburg. Refinery closures and a fragmented transport network have constrained LPG market growth despite demand being relatively modest at under 500,000 t/yr, state-owned PetroSA interim chief executive Sesakho Magadla said. Domestic LPG output almost halved to 123,000t in 2024 from 235,000t in 2020, Argus Consulting data show, following the closure of Engen's 105,000 b/d and Sapref's 180,000 b/d refineries near Durban. This has left the market entirely dependent on imports, which grew by 140pc to 589,000t over the four years to 2024. Getting the refineries back online to reduce imports is a priority, Magadla said. Restoring PetroSA's 45,000 b/d gas-to-liquids plant at Mossel Bay has faced "competition challenges" but is back on track after the government began seeking new partners to revive the site. The plant has been idle since 2020 and was a major domestic LPG supplier. State-owned oil firm SANPC is restarting the Sapref refinery in Durban and expects to redeploy its storage infrastructure this year. Logistical bottlenecks are also preventing large parts of the country receiving supply. PetroSA plans to improve rail links — particularly from Saldanha Bay — to ease congestion and move LPG at scale. Saldanha Bay hosts Sunrise Energy's 210,000 t/yr LPG import terminal and could soon be joined by state-owned Strategic Fuel Fund's planned 192,000 t/yr facility . The Western Cape province remains reliant on imports and faces chronic shortages during peak winter demand. Another challenge for the region is import capacity limitations, trading firm Petredec said. This problem, as well as poor logistics, add about a 10-20pc premium to delivered prices, or $100/t outright, the IEA said. Africa urgently needs infrastructure capable of handling higher volumes, including terminals that can receive VLGCs, Petredec communications head Tamsin Donaldson said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 30 group launches school clean cooking platform
Cop 30 group launches school clean cooking platform
The platform is designed to close policy, financing and implementation gaps, writes Yasmin Zaman London, 2 December (Argus) — A coalition of development bodies, governments and private-sector firms has launched a platform to accelerate the shift to clean cooking in schools in developing economies at the UN's Cop 30 summit in Belem, Brazil. The Platform for Clean Cooking in Schools is designed to close policy, financing and implementation gaps that have slowed progress in replacing biomass use in schools — largely with LPG. The initiative is being led by non-profit organisation Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) with support from the World Food Programme,the School Meals Coalition, UKAid's Modern Energy Cooking Services programme, the Iceland government, the Middle East Green Initiative, the Global Platform for Action on Sustainable Energy in Displacement Settings and private investor Lightrock. Schools provide meals to more than 450mn children daily worldwide, making them one of the largest users of cooking fuels after households. In many low and middle-income countries, institutional kitchens still rely on firewood and charcoal, contributing to deforestation, indoor air pollution and carbon emissions. The group says school clean cooking projects offer a high-leverage entry point for wider clean cooking transitions as they reduce exposure to smoke, cut fuel use costs and help familiarise households with modern cooking technologies. The growing emphasis on schools in countries such as Kenya reflects the scale of the opportunity, US-based non-profit the Clean Cooking Alliance's chief external affairs officer, Julia Belopolsky, says. "Schools consume large volumes of wood and charcoal. Transitioning those institutions to clean cooking solutions really delivers outsized benefits for forests, air quality and human health," she says. Kenya has placed institutional cooking "at the centre of its national transition strategy", with the CCA-backed Clean Cooking Delivery Unit in the Office of the President co-ordinating the work of energy, environment, education and health ministries. She pointed to Kenya's recent high-level summit on financing institutional clean cooking as an example of this joined-up approach. The new Cop 30 platform "follows the same logic and seeks to amplify and replicate the work that's being done in Kenya and Tanzania and elsewhere", Belopolsky says. Aligning clean cooking investments with school meal programmes can unlock scale that has been difficult to achieve, the group says. Work to transition schools is under way in 10 pilot countries, with plans to expand this by another 10 by 2026 and reach "global scale" by 2030. The platform aims to match policy ambition with finance and delivery, SEforALL chief executive Damilola Ogunbiyi says. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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