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Mexico says trade pact will hold despite Trump doubts
Mexico says trade pact will hold despite Trump doubts
Mexico City, 16 January (Argus) — Mexico remains confident that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be extended, even as US president Donald Trump questions the value of the pact that functions as a foundation for much of North America's trade. The three countries are working on the treaty's scheduled review this year and aim to meet the 1 July deadline to conclude the process, Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said Thursday during president Claudia Sheinbaum's daily press conference. Negotiators have made steady progress on issues raised by each side, he said Ebrard's remarks come after Trump again put the USMCA's future in question earlier this week. During a visit to a Ford plant in Michigan, Trump dismissed the treaty as offering "no real advantage". The agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, is a key driver of Mexico's economy, supporting trade and manufacturing supply chains tied to the US and Canada. This year's review cycle foresees a 16-year extension to the treaty if all three countries agree. Without an extension, the USMCA would shift to annual reviews, which analysts see leading to further uncertainty about trade and investment planning. Tariffs on some Mexican exports would probably remain in place even if the agreement is renewed, analysts have said. Bilateral relations have grown tense in the past year following Trump's repeated threats to pursue military action against criminal groups in Mexico. The US has also pressed Mexico to deliver faster progress on illegal drug traffic enforcement. Mexico's foreign minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente and US secretary of state Marco Rubio spoke by telephone on Thursday and reaffirmed the "importance of the US-Mexico partnership", both governments said in a joint statement. Following the call, the US State Department posted on X that "incremental progress" on border security is "unacceptable", and that upcoming engagements will require measurable results to dismantle trafficking networks and disrupt alleged fentanyl flows from Mexico into the US. Sheinbaum said earlier this week that she had ruled out any US military intervention following a "good conversation" with Trump on security issues. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Asian butane prices to remain firm amid shifting trade
Asian butane prices to remain firm amid shifting trade
Rising regional competition for imports will continue to support prices, writes Frances Goh Singapore, 6 January (Argus) — Northeast Asian butane prices are likely to remain at a premium to propane in 2026 as geopolitical tensions continue to alter global LPG trade flows. The trade battle between the US and China last year upended established LPG trade flows , with US propane cargoes destined for China being diverted to markets such as Japan and northwest Europe from early April, and mixed propane-butane shipments heading increasingly to south and southeast Asia, while China brought in more propane-butane shipments from the Middle East. The butane Argus Far East Index (AFEI) for northeast Asian deliveries averaged a $34/t premium to its propane equivalent in the fourth quarter of 2025 despite the onset of winter, which typically boosts demand for propane for heating ( see graph ). China's propane demand in 2025 came largely from the petrochemical sector , specifically propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants and crackers. But import growth slowed to about 3pc, compared with 9pc in 2024, because of the effect of tariffs. Demand for butane imports in China meanwhile grew strongly following the opening of five new plants to produce gasoline additive MTBE with a combined capacity of 3.4mn t/yr, which lifted arrivals by nearly 50pc to 7.9mn t. Securing butane mostly from the Middle East has become more challenging for China because it has to compete with India's growing demand. India's butane imports grew by around 11pc to 11.2mn t last year, Kpler data show. The slowing in China's demand growth for propane from its PDH sector because of negative margins and from crackers as they switch to cheaper naphtha and ethane feedstock means butane could become the driving product in 2026. This is compounded by only three new PDH plants being due to open in China this year. New butane-fed crackers in south China are expected to consume 1.5mn-2.5mn t in 2026. India's continuing LPG consumption growth last year , in defiance of expectations that it would slow or even contract as the domestic market nears saturation, could also be boosted by the commissioning of the 2,800km Kandla-Gorakhpur LPG pipeline , which will connect India's west coast import terminals and refineries to inland demand centres all the way to the north of the country. A combination of population growth, rising GDP and government incentives to diversify 10pc of LPG imports to the US has lured more Asia-focused traders to the Indian import market, which has historically been dominated by Mideast Gulf producers. US firm P66, as well as supplying two of four monthly US propane-butane cargoes to India this year under the first ever US-India term contract, is also due to supply one cargo a month to Indonesia for the first time. This is a deviation from its traditional northeast Asian markets, where it has been one of the largest butane suppliers. Crack apart This shift in US exports left butane buyers in Japan and South Korea short of available cargoes, while Mideast Gulf sellers shipped more propane-butane to China. Japan's butane imports fell by about a fifth to 1.4mn t last year, while South Korea's eased by 2.2pc to just under 2.1mn t, Kpler data show. Yet spot demand in both markets grew in 2025 because of favourable cracking economics for the feedstock, boosting AFEI prices. Weakness across the LPG complex kept butane AFEI prices about $38/t below naphtha equivalents from April-December, boosting demand from northeast Asian flexible crackers. Spot offers for 23,000t butane cargoes fluctuated from $40/t discounts to parity to naphtha during the nine months, underscoring butane's strength in an illiquid market. Japanese and South Korean importers are meanwhile likely to secure more butane under term contracts from the US and Australia this year, given reduced spot availability from the US and Middle East, further reducing liquidity. AFEI prices 2025 AFEI, naphtha Japan forecast 2026 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US ethane output growth to slow in 2026
US ethane output growth to slow in 2026
The approach of maximum recovery in the Permian and a rising focus on less liquids-rich acreage will limit ethane growth prospects, writes Joseph Barbour Houston, 6 January (Argus) — US ethane production growth may slow this year because the largest gas processors are operating at near-maximum recovery rates, limiting scope to increase supply. US ethane production, or "recovery", from gas processing surged to 2.87mn b/d (59mn t/yr) in 2024 from 1.27mn b/d in 2016, when the US began waterborne exports of ethane, data from government agency the EIA show, with ethane output growing by 20pc/yr in 2018 alone. But the pace of growth may be slowing. The EIA forecasts ethane recovery to have averaged 3.06mn b/d last year and to rise to 3.15mn b/d in 2026, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), annual gains of 6.6pc and 2.9pc, respectively. This means production growth has slowed consistently since 2022, when it stood at 12pc, dropping to 8.1pc in 2024. This is partly attributable to an easing in the expansion of natural gas production, with marketed output — excluding volumes from Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico — rising by only 0.5pc in 2024 from 2023, the slowest since the pandemic hit in 2020. Gains in US ethane production have far outpaced those of natural gas over the past 10 years. Onshore gas output rose by 50pc from 2016 to 2024, while ethane yields more than doubled. But this trend may stall as the US gets closer to recovering near-maximum levels of ethane from the gas stream, giving less headroom for far higher growth. The robust increase in overall yields of natural gas liquids (NGLs) may also further slow relative to natural gas this year as a result of US producers targeting "drier" gas acreage — reservoirs with lower NGL content. "A lot of the growth we expect to see for crude and gas output is coming from the Haynesville formation [in Texas and Louisiana]… where it's a lot less liquids-rich," STEO contributor Joshua Eiermann told Argus . Ethane, which is a by-product of "wet" natural gas, is left in the gas stream — or "rejected" — if it is not economical to separate it for use as a petrochemical feedstock in ethylene steam crackers. The US is rejecting less ethane than it did in the past. It rejected 500,000-575,000 b/d in 2017 , or at least a quarter of the total, while such volumes stood at 600,000-800,000 b/d in 2025 based on industry estimates , which equates to about 16-21pc of the total, based on EIA estimates. Much of the US' NGL production growth in recent years has been driven by the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, which is close to full ethane recovery rates. Ethane export infrastructure expansions on the Gulf coast and growing NGL pipeline and storage capacities have encouraged higher Permian recovery. This means that midstream firms that operate from "well-to-water" for NGLs in the Gulf coast region, such as Enterprise Products and Energy Transfer, already recover nearly all the ethane they produce, market participants say. Handling rejection The US Gulf coast accounted for about 67pc of ethane recovery in 2024, whereas the east coast, where smaller volumes are exported, accounted for 13pc. Gas processors in the Marcellus and Utica shales in northeast US lack the ability to recover more ethane because of limited takeaway capacity. Marcellus-focused upstream producer Antero Resources in March 2025 estimated that 45pc of potentially recoverable ethane in the east coast's Appalachian production region, or approximately 273,000 b/d, is rejected into the gas stream. In contrast, higher recovery from the Permian basin means ethane production growth in the region is set to more closely equate to that of natural gas. Overall, US NGL production is expected to continue outpacing natural gas growth this year. Enterprise forecasts NGL output to rise by 17pc between 2024 and 2030 compared with 14pc for all natural gas, although Permian production growth of both will be an equal 32pc. If the Permian continues to constitute an increasing share of US oil and gas output, growth in ethane production is likely to slow alongside natural gas. Ethane rejection, recovery: 2017 vs 2025 US ethane production Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Inland NWE LPG buyers to return to ARA spot market
Inland NWE LPG buyers to return to ARA spot market
LPG buyers may scale back term purchases this year, but increased spot trade carries higher risk, writes Waldemar Jaszczyk London, 6 January (Argus) — Northwest European downstream LPG buyers are set to return to spot trade this year after supply concerns driven by geopolitics and high natural gas prices led to heavy term buying in 2025. Polish importers are leading the way in scaling back term commitments after adapting to the EU's ban on Russian LPG. The embargo, which took effect in December 2024, halted most of the 1mn t/yr Russia exported to Poland, prompting buyers to source supply from western markets. Fears of shortages spurred Polish buyers to lock in substantial 2025 term contracts early at record-high premiums to the large cargo cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) benchmark. But this backfired as Poland ended up well-supplied owing to weaker autogas consumption and tumbling re-exports to Ukraine, leaving importers with excess term product. Baltic ports covered the loss of Russian rail flows, with seaborne imports for non-petrochemical use jumping by 30pc on the year to a record 1.12mn t by mid-December, Kpler data show. At the same time, weaker demand weighed on imports, which slid by 14pc to 1.58mn t over January-September — a 10-year low. Polish distributors also faced competition from Latvia's Riga terminal, which started importing US LPG, undercutting other Baltic ports. Russian flows continued through a sanctions loophole, boosting imports of cheap normal butane and isobutane for Poland's 1.8mn t/yr autogas market. With profits plunging and buyers facing delivery backlogs, Polish resales to northwest Europe became common. The return to spot markets has spread, to a lesser extent, to buyers in Germany, the region's key heating consumer. The prospect of Polish demand waves set the tone for Europe last year, boosting term deals. But other than brief spikes from refinery disruption, the shift in flows failed to lift spot premiums meaningfully. Fourth-quarter railcar and barge differentials averaged over $100/t below 2024. Surging US exports allowed ARA terminals to absorb additional inland demand as transatlantic flows hit a record 1.7mn t. Many petrochemical producers also refocused storage to sell locally, increasing competition among sellers. For 2026, refinery supply is expected to stabilise, if not increase, as the threat of rising natural gas prices has receded. Resurgent Dutch TTF values last year threatened to curtail refinery flows as they did in 2021-23. But propane was largely shielded from refinery use, with railcar assessments — a proxy for inland product — at a discount to the TTF only during the summer. Propane-burning economics collapsed after the TTF fell to a 20-month low in early December, while LPG supply was ample given mild weather. Forward curves show natural gas at only a marginal premium to large cargoes in 2026, reducing the incentive for refinery LPG use. The propane market also weathered refinery closures in Europe, which removed 400,000 b/d of capacity in 2025. Further shutdowns are unlikely because tighter spare capacity supported refinery margins. Refinery supply in the region is forecast to hold at 16.35mn t in 2026 after a 5pc fall in 2025, according to Argus Consulting . It's cold outside The market enters this year with freezing temperatures across parts of Europe, yet heating consumption is likely to stay historically low. And ARA faces weaker French buying after imports to the 1.1mn t/yr Norgal terminal restarted in October . But a spot-heavy approach brings risk that could boost premiums for buyers. ARA terminal suppliers are likely to follow downstream clients by limiting term imports, while spot US product could tighten as competition from China increases. The threat of closures has eased, but Europe's ageing refineries remain prone to outages. And the EU ban on Russian pure butane fractions under the bloc's 19th sanctions package, effective from 26 January, will remove more than 32,000 t/month of supply, which will have to be replaced partly by propane for autogas use. Poland sea LPG imports by terminal* ARA propane railcar large cargo differential ARA, daf Brest forecast 2026 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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