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Viewpoint: Price battle pushes Brazil HRC lower in 2025
Viewpoint: Price battle pushes Brazil HRC lower in 2025
Sao Paulo, 22 December (Argus) — Brazilian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined throughout 2025, despite solid economic growth and steady demand in most sectors, with prices ending the year lower because of pricing competition between domestic and imported HRC. Argus - assessed imported HRC cfr Brazil dropped to $515-550/metric tonne (t) on 11 December, down from $535-555/t on 2 January. Argus -assessed HRC ex-works fell to R3,600-3,900/t ($655.80-702.80/t) in the latest assessment compared with R4,000-4,300/t at the start of the year. Brazilian mills resisted pressure from a rising influx of lower-priced imports stemming from an oversupply in China, holding prices steady for the first five months of the year. But mills yielded to price cuts in June, when price spreads were as much as 38pc higher than imports. Buyers were able to secure deals below R3,400/t in July, market participants told Argus . Tighter safeguard measures around the world and anti-dumping actions targeting Chinese material helped redirect steel to countries with looser trade defenses, including Brazil. Imports hit an all-time high of 6mn t in the year through Novembe r , up by 7pc from the same period last year, industry chamber Aço Brasil said. These volumes added to domestic production and boosted apparent consumption — the sum of production and imports minus exports — by 2.5pc to 24.8mn t year-to-date November. Service centers and trading companies took advantage of the lower import prices to build up their inventories. High stock levels ultimately weighed on demand and dragged down offer levels. Domestic and import sellers were forced to slash prices in June to spur buying interest in an already oversupplied market. Import HRC prices slipped below $500/t in July. Sales up The Brazilian real strengthened by 14.2pc against the dollar year-to-date mid-December, boosting import competitiveness for 2025. Imports offered another advantage beyond pricing: lower financial costs from international trading firms. Brazilian mills rarely operate on credit, and even if they did, borrowing costs in Brazil reached their highest level in 20 years in 2025. Brazil's 15pc target interest rate, which spurs higher commercial lending rates, has dampened end-user demand, but not enough to slow steel consumption significantly. Despite the rising import flows, domestic sales remained stable on the year at 19mn t year-to-date November, Aço Brasil said. Full-year 2025 domestic sales are expected to match the high-21mn t level of a year earlier, which was the highest since a demand surge during the pandemic. Brazil's gross domestic product grew by an annualized 2.7pc through September, Brazil's statistics bureau IBGE said, on track to beat the central bank's full-year growth forecast of 2.25pc. The solid economic growth has supported steel demand, especially in the construction and automotive sectors. Real estate construction starts jumped to 307,366 units year-to-date September, up by 8.4pc compared with the same period in 2024, the Brazilian construction industry chamber (CBIC) said. Real estate sales rose 4pc to 312,240 properties over the same period, CBIC data show. The Minha Casa Minha Vida low-income housing program accounted for nearly half of both sales and new units. Brazil produced 2.46mn vehicles in January-November, up by 4.1pc year-on-year, automaker association Anfavea said. Registrations rose 1.4pc to 2.1mn units over the same period, while automobile exports surged by 39pc to 510,130 units, driven by higher shipments to Argentina, Colombia and Chile. The annual drop in HRC prices in Brazil was driven less by demand and more by fierce competition between domestic producers and import suppliers, which pushed prices lower despite stable consumption. Brazilian HRC prices are expected to remain under pressure in early 2026 as high inventories and competitive import offers persist, a trader said. A modest recovery is expected in the second half of the year, depending on stronger domestic demand and potential trade defense measures, market participants told Argus . By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Asean aluminium output to reach 2.7mn t
Viewpoint: Asean aluminium output to reach 2.7mn t
Singapore, 22 December (Argus) — Primary aluminium output in southeast Asia is expected to rise to 2.7mn t in 2026, but supply tightness will likely persist in the first quarter because the ramp up of new capacities will be gradual, while export demand will remain strong. Southeast Asia will add 780,000 t of primary aluminium output in 2026, driven by smelter expansion in Indonesia and new smelters in Vietnam. Of which, 705,000t will come from Indonesia, sending the country's expected total output to 1.55mn t. Key projects in Indonesia include Chinese-backed Juwan in Weda Bay, Taijing in Morowali and Kaltara in North Kalimantan. Taijing and Juwan, jointly developed by Chinese companies Tsingshan and Xinfa, are expected to bring new capacity on line in 2026. Taijing plans to start production in the third quarter of 2026 with expected output of around 180,000t, while Juwan expects to reach its full capacity of 250,000 t/yr in the first quarter of 2026. Kaltara, developed by Indonesian firm Adaro and Chinese firm Lygend, began phase one operations in October-December. It plans to ramp up to its full phase one capacity of 500,000 t/yr by October 2026. These projects form part of Indonesia's strategy to leverage its abundant bauxite reserves. Indonesia's ample bauxite reserves and its success in developing a local nickel supply chain over the past decade have attracted a growing number of Chinese value-added producers seeking to integrate production chains in the country. In addition, more Chinese value-added-product (VAP) producers have expanded operations in Indonesia over the past eighteen months. They are looking to diversify supply chains to pre-empt any disruptions if China reaches its government-imposed annual capacity cap of 45mn t/yr for aluminium production. China produced about 3.8mn t of primary aluminium during January-October, up by 2pc from a year earlier, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. This trend of building integrated supply chains locally in Indonesia is expected to absorb part of Indonesia's additional primary aluminium output in the coming years, given that some Chinese producers are likely to purchase aluminium to process into VAPs. Meanwhile, exports will continue to grow. Indonesia's primary aluminium exports rose by 71pc on the year to 414,600t in January–October, from 243,000t in the same period a year earlier. China remained the top destination, taking 191,500t, or 46pc of total volumes. Exports of aluminium value-added products — under HS code 7604, 7605, 7606, 7607, 7608, 7609, 7610 and 7616 — increased by 40pc on the year to around 111,000t in the same period, according to Global Trade Tracker data. Power stability and reliance on coal remain key bottlenecks for Indonesian smelters. Coal-fired captive plants dominate power supply, while renewable energy adoption is slow because of long lead times for infrastructure development and high costs, despite government efforts to push integration under its Net Zero 2060 roadmap, market participants said. In other parts of southeast Asia, Vietnam's Dak Nong smelter will commence the first phase of its operations, which has a nameplate capacity of 150,000 t/yr, in the second quarter of 2026. The project is expected to produce 75,000t of aluminium in 2026. Malaysia's Press Metal remains southeast Asia's largest integrated aluminium producer with a capacity of 1.08mn t/yr. Press is expected to operate at a utilisation rate close to 100pc for 2025 and 2026. Demand for Press' products from its smelter in Sarawak, which are considered low-carbon products in Turkey and Europe because of its hydro-powered smelter, will likely rise in response to EU's tighter carbon boarder adjustment mechanism (CBAM) requirements, effective on 1 January 2026. Indonesian state-owned producer Inalum is expected to keep output at around 280,000t or raise it slightly to about 285,000t in 2026. By Candice Luo Southeast Asia aluminium output outlook t Smelter Company Country 2025E ('000) 2026E ('000) ± in 2026 Designed Capacity ('000 t/yr) Press Metal Bintulu Press Metal Malaysia 960 960 0 960 Press Metal Mukah Press Metal Malaysia 120 120 0 120 Inalum Kuala Tanjung MIND ID Indonesia 280 285 5 600 Hua Chin Aluminum Indonesia Tsinghan/Huafon Indonesia 490 500 10 500 Taijing (IMIP Phase I) Tsinghan/ Xinfa Indonesia 0 180 180 600 Juwan (IWIP Phase I) Tsingshan /Xinfa Indonesia 50 250 200 250 Xianfeng (IWIP Phase II) Tsingshan /Xinfa Indonesia 0 50 50 250 Bintan Nanshan (BAI) Nanshan Group Indonesia 0 0 0 1,000 Kaltara Adaro, Lygend Indonesia 20 280 260 500 Dharma Inti Bersama (DIB) Harita Indonesia 0 0 0 1,000 East Hope Indonesia East Hope Indonesia 0 0 0 2,400 Dak Nong Dak Nong Vietnam 0 75 75 450 Duc Giang Duc Giang Vietnam 0 0 0 500 Bosal Malaysia project Bosal Malaysia 0 0 0 1,000 Total 1,920 2,700 780 10,130 Source: Argus Media, Company reports, Market sources Indonesia primary aluminium shipments by market in 2025 1Q 2Q 3Q Jan-Oct '25 China 15,504 64,547 87,356 191,475 South Korea 46,188 13,599 4,500 65,787 Vietnam 7,893 9,114 16,938 42,284 Turkey 29,997 5,899 - 35,896 Malaysia 4,000 1,000 16,094 22,394 Thailand 2,520 7,891 10,191 20,702 Japan 2,250 5,775 3,050 11,700 Spain - - - 10,000 Taiwan 1,646 4,346 1,698 9,390 Italy 4,647 - - 4,647 Others - - 200 302 World 114,645 112,272 140,027 414,577 Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia,Global Trade Tracker Monthly primary aluminium exports from Indonesia (t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal
Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal
Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Chile's comptroller general office (CGR) will audit "certain operations associated with" the SQM-Codelco agreement to form a lithium production joint venture, following complaints by some of the country's parliamentarians and indigenous communities, further delaying the deal. CGR on 18 December said its scope is limited to verifying whether government actions follow the law and to audit public spending. The agency said that it is forbidden from judging whether a policy or administrative decision is a good idea or convenient. CGR does not have the power to veto the deal, because the main legal challenges to the agreement are either in court, where the watchdog has been ordered not to comment, have already been resolved by judges, or involve policy judgments that Chilean law does not allow CGR to review. As a result, its role is limited to reviewing the agreement for potential irregularities. It can flag legal inconsistencies and delay the deal's effective date until any identified issues are rectified. CGR's audit will focus on the state-owned company Codelco's financial advisory contract with investment bank Morgan Stanley, as well as Codelco's operations, to determine whether public resources are being used appropriately. The audit will also examine claims from a congressional investigative commission regarding the transparency of the negotiation process, SQM's tax situation, and a clause that relates to Codelco's obligation to sell 100pc of extracted potassium to SQM under the partnership. The Atacama desert's brines, from which the joint venture will produce lithium, contain potassium that is precipitated and extracted alongside lithium. Additionally, CGR will review whether the companies' directors acted lawfully and examine Chile's economic development agency Corfo's approval of the contracts that underpin the partnership. These include Corfo's contracts with SQM, which allow lithium extraction in the Atacama salt flats through December 31, 2030, and its contracts with Codelco's lithium subsidiary Minera Tarar, which enables operations at the site from 2031 to 2060. Corfo's mining lease and project contracts are a key legal step in allowing Codelco to partner with a private company — SQM, in this case — to mine lithium in that area under the national lithium strategy of President Gabriel Boric, who leaves office in March. Although the SQM-Codelco agreement , which was struck in May 2024 and would extend SQM's authorization to continue extracting lithium in the Atacama salt flats from January 2031 to 31 December 2060, does not have a hard deadline to close, it is still running against the clock. If the deal is not sealed by 31 December 2025, a contract clause in the partnership agreement allows any party to void the deal if they so choose. If this deadline is not met, Chile would also reduce SQM's lithium extraction quota by 300,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent for the remaining period until 31 December 2030, when the company's current mining permit ends. The joint-venture also faces opposition from Chile's newly elected president Jose Antonio Kast . The far-right politician said he would honor the deal if it is sealed before he takes office, but risk of an overturn would grow if that condition is not met before he is sworn in on 11 March 2026. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline
Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline
London, 19 December (Argus) — The European aluminium industry has heard some highly optimistic forecasts for prices and demand recovery in 2026 at a series of late-year industry events that started with London Metal Exchange (LME) Week in October. But that optimism rests on assumptions of a sharp recovery in demand for which there is no real evidence, and concerns are growing that the extended downturn in European manufacturing represents a more structural shift in global industrial power. Some industry analysts forecast in October that LME aluminium prices could reach $3,000/t by the end of 2025, and even threaten the $4,000/t mark at some point in 2026. The forecasts assumed a continuation of the supply tightness that has become a major driver of global aluminium markets in 2025 as Chinese output has neared its production cap of 45mn t/yr and production growth has also slowed elsewhere, as many regions focus away from capacity expansion. But the bullish price projection was also supported by expectations of a recovery in demand from manufacturing industries following a lengthy period of contraction, particularly in Europe. With demand levels for aluminium-intensive goods currently well below trend, those analysts foresee a much better demand outlook for next year. But the reality may be that the downturn in aluminium demand in Europe is more structural, and as a result there is no reason to expect a significant improvement just because it is due in an historical context. The automotive sector is a particularly potent example. After a steep fall in manufacturing rates in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe's automotive sector has yet to recover to 2019 levels. Production even fell back in 2024 by more than 6pc from the previous year on strong competition from China and lower consumer spending because of high inflation and rising interest rates. European car production fell further in the first half of 2025, by 2.6pc on the year as stricter emissions targets, high energy costs and US import tariffs hit output. Even relief in the form of falling interest rates or more affordable energy would not be enough to bring European car manufacturing back to 2019 levels. As European output has fallen, other countries have risen to take its place. Global car production grew by 3.5pc in the first half of this year, with Chinese output jumping by 12pc on the back of climbing electric vehicle (EV) sales, thanks to policy support and, crucially, rising exports. As Europe once led the world in internal combustion engine markets, so China is now leading in EVs. "The European industry sold ICE [internal combustion engine] cars all over the world, including to China, but that era is now over," executive director of clean transport think tank Transport & Environment William Todts said at the European Aluminium Summit in Brussels last month. "Fifty percent of the Chinese market has gone, and the European market is shrinking. That transformation is extremely challenging." Europe must recognise this new world order and adjust its policy goals accordingly. Much of Europe's trade and industry policy was designed for the dominant global industries the region enjoyed in the past, and new policies must be enacted to support new markets or the downturn in European manufacturing will extend further and deeper. "I'm very worried about the downturn being structural. Europe has huge energy costs and I don't see carmakers growing against the Chinese competition," chief executive of aluminium products manufacturer HAI Group Rob van Gils said in Brussels. "I don't think it's a cycle and it will be very tough in the next couple of years," he added. "We need an evergreen approach. Europe is just surviving. It is not innovating. Industry is stuck." By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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