Marine fuels
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Latest marine fuels news
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Viewpoint: US marine fuel imports to fall further
Viewpoint: US marine fuel imports to fall further
New York, 31 December (Argus) — Marine fuel imports could continue declining next year as countries opt to ship elsewhere because of US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Global imports to the US are projected to decline by around 6.6pc in 2026, according to consultancy firm Oxford Economics. This includes an estimated 10.7pc decrease in shipments from Mexico and a 3.6pc drop in deliveries from Canada, Oxford Economics said. Imports to the US have totaled around 26.71mn metric tonnes (t) in 2025, a 11pc decline from 2024, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa. Mexico and Canada have seen the biggest drop in maritime shipments to the US this year. Mexico posted the highest share of shipments to the US, at around 5.90mn t in 2025, Vortexa data show. But Mexico's shipments to the US dropped by about 29pc from about 8.32mn t in 2024. Canadian shipments to the US dropped by about 18pc to 2.3mn t in 2025, according to Vortexa. Canada has had the fourth highest share of marine fuel shipments to the US in 2025. A higher percentage of Mexican exports has gone to Singapore, from 8.1pc last year to 8.9pc in 2025, and to Morocco, from none to 1.8pc, according to Vortexa data. For Canada, a higher share of shipments has gone to Dutch Caribbean Island St Eustatius, rising from 10.2pc to 12.5pc in 2025, and to the Netherlands, up from 1.9pc last year to 2.5pc in 2025. Currently, the US imposes a 25pc tariff on Mexican imports and a 35pc tariff on shipments from Canada. Goods that qualify under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement and energy commodities are exempted from the tariffs. A ruling by the US Supreme Court overturning Trump's tariff actions could add volatility to marine fuel market activity, especially should the Trump administration pursue other avenues to implement its exclusionary trade policies. The court held an appeal in November of this year and a decision on the case could come at anytime before June 2026. By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Suez bunker demand may rebound in 2026
Viewpoint: Suez bunker demand may rebound in 2026
Sao Paulo, 31 December (Argus) — Spot bunker demand at the Suez Canal could strengthen in 2026 as the prospect of improved security conditions in the Red Sea prompts major shipowners to weigh a return to the route. The Yemen-based Houthis signalled a pause to their maritime attacks in the Red Sea on 11 November, following a peace agreement signed between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas a month earlier. But they warned attacks would resume if fighting in Gaza restarts. Since then, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has said the route is ready to receive container ships and has held talks with major carriers including Maersk and CMA CGM. The SCA has also introduced flexible pricing, including a 15pc discount for container ships over 130,000t. Some large container vessels have already transited, such as the 396m CMA CGM Jules Verne with a gross tonnage of 176,000t. A sustained return of large shipowners would lift bunker demand at Suez, reversing the shift to southern Africa ports seen since late 2023 when the Houthi attacks began. Smaller shipowners could follow, but they would need insurers to cut premiums, which remain high because of the attacks. After the SCA announcement, Danish firm Maersk said it is considering a return to the canal and aims to normalise transits over time, but without setting a date. The decision depends on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holding and the wider geopolitical situation. Shipping firms have increasingly switched to the longer Cape of Good Hope route since the attacks started, adding weeks to east-west voyages. In the third quarter of 2025, 3,277 vessels passed through the Suez Canal, down from 6,253 in the same period of 2022, SCA data show. The longer route has lifted bunker fuel consumption and operational expenses for shipowners. Some bunker fuel suppliers have shifted to Egypt's Port Said and paused Suez operations, but one told Argus they are already planning a return and arranging replenishments. Some market participants remain cautious, noting this is not the first time the Houthis have announced a pause in attacks. Suez transit tonnage in early May this year was about 70pc below the 2023 average, according to UN Trade and Development's 2025 Review of Maritime Transport. The rerouting boosted spot demand at Cape Town and Durban on South Africa and Port Louis in Mauritius. Spot demand at Cape ports could fall if ships return to Suez, potentially easing bunker prices in southern Africa, market participants said. Argus assessed delivered very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Cape Town at an average of $612.25/t between 8 January and 8 December 2025, while Durban averaged $598.75/t. By comparison, Port Said averaged $550.75/t and Suez $635/t over the same period, the latter reflecting higher operational costs and limited supplier activity . By Natália Coelho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: European VLSFO demand to fall in 2026
Viewpoint: European VLSFO demand to fall in 2026
Sao Paulo, 31 December (Argus) — Very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) demand at European ports is likely to fall in 2026, due to decarbonisation regulations and sulphur content restrictions. Shipowners say VLSFO is unattractive, even at lower prices. Spot VLSFO traded 13pc lower on the year at the Gibraltar-Algeciras-Ceuta (GAC) hub in 2025 to date. MGO prices fell by 8pc in the same time. This is likely to continue into 2026, with European regulations reducing demand for fuel oil. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions abatement costs will become significantly higher in 2026 with the advancement of EU ETS regulations, the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) III transposition in various countries, and the existing FuelEU Maritime requirements. A probable oversupply of VLSFO would extend a trend observed in 2025. Suppliers, especially in the Mediterranean region, noticed a steady slowdown in VLSFO demand and increased demand for fuels that comply with the requirements of the Mediterranean Emissions Control Area (ECA) that came into effect in May. An ECA requires bunker fuels utilised in that area are limited to 0.1pc sulphur content. VLSFO does not meet this unless an exhaust scrubber is used, but only around 5pc of vessels globally are equipped with these, according to DNV data. The Mediterranean ECA boosted demand for MGO in the region's ports and supported gasoil import flows to GAC from northwest Europe, to the extent there was a shortage of prompt MGO availability at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) in the second and third quarters of 2025. Suppliers said firmer demand in Mediterranean ports in 2026 should keep these ARA-GAC flows elevated. Consequent MGO tightness in northwest Europe, combined with ECAs spanning the majority of European waters, could incentivise demand for ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) with sulphur content meeting the ECA limit of 0.1pc. ULSFO sales in Rotterdam in the third quarter of 2025 were the highest since the first quarter of 2020. Mediterranean suppliers have increased ULSFO availability in key ports such as Algeciras, Malta, Piraeus and Istanbul. In the latter, demand for ULSFO is already higher than that for VLSFO and HSFO in the spot market and is on par with demand for MGO, according to local suppliers. For the coming year, market participants are likely to continue expanding supply of ULSFO, with at least one new supplier starting to offer the product in Piraeus. Even so, the amount of purchases in the spot market is unlikely to increase significantly, since the main destination of ULSFO purchases tends to be for contract ferries, suppliers said. By Gabriel Tassi Lara Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Asia's shipping faces uncertainty in 2026
Viewpoint: Asia's shipping faces uncertainty in 2026
Singapore, 31 December (Argus) — The adoption of green marine fuels in Asia's shipping sector is expected to slow in 2026, following a turbulent year marked by the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) deferment of its proposed Net Zero Framework (NZF) in October. The sector is revisiting investment plans affected by geopolitics and global policy making, and faces further challenges in the year ahead . Biofuel blends slow down "We don't see a sizeable increase in bio-bunker [demand next year]," a key Singapore-based trader said. Year-on-year demand for biofuel blends at the port of Singapore dropped by 46.6pc to 62,200t in November, preliminary data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) show. Demand for bio-bunkers is likely to be slow but steady in 2026 compared with this year. The implementation of RED III affected this market throughout the last quarter of 2025, the trader said. Trading of used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) based blends with very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) has been slow because buyers anticipate tighter sustainability rules and the exclusion of key waste-based biofuels under RED III . This is likely to raise compliance costs and redirect European demand toward advanced grades. But total bio-blend consumption in Singapore reached 1.2mn t during January-November this year, 42.8pc higher than the full-year total for 2024. Biofuels were the first alternative fuel adopted by the shipping sector, and their adoption has grown quickly since 2022. But a slowdown in demand could occur in 2026 because of uncertainty following the deferment of key frameworks under the IMO's NZF. The IMO's proposed Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) Guidelines are one of these frameworks. The LCA guidelines aimed to help shipowners calculate their compliance on a well-to-tank (WtT) and tank-to-wake (TtW) basis. LNG poised for further growth LNG as a bunker fuel maintained its robust consumption growth in Singapore this year. Total LNG consumption was 631,000t in January-November, up by 36pc from the same period a year earlier. LNG bunkering is growing at key ports in China , and infrastructure has developed throughout this year. But LNG barges remain a bottleneck, with only a handful available across the Asia-Pacific region. Three barges are operational in Singapore, with a few more on the order books. The estimated $80mn cost to build an LNG barge is a key deterrent. Growth in LNG bunkering is likely to continue as Asian shipowners have invested in building LNG-fuelled vessels. The total number of LNG dual-fuelled newbuilds on order books was 966, the highest for any alternative fuel, the latest data from Norwegian classification agency DNV show. Conventional bunkers anchor demand Alternative fuels are the focus of the latest developments in marine fuels, but conventional fossil fuels remain an option because of their lower price . The shipping sector's firm demand for conventional fuels was reflected in sales in Singapore. Year-to-date sales accounted for 96pc share of the total bunker consumption at around 49.5mn t from January to November, MPA data show. HSFO demand is likely to stay supported in the coming year, especially if ample supplies in Asia continue to weigh on prices in the near term. Most shipowners and charterers still prioritise crew safety, opting for the longer shipping route around the Cape of Good Hope instead of travelling through the Red Sea, where there are possibilities of maritime attacks by Yemen's Houthi group. Refuelling with HSFO instead of VLSFO translates into significant cost savings and payback on scrubber investments for vessel owners, while allowing ships to comply with 0.5pc sulphur emission caps. The scrubber spread, the price difference between VLSFO and HSFO, averaged $74.38/t this year as of 26 December. Moving forward, demand for conventional fuel oil in Singapore will likely be sustained, as over 97pc of ships in operation do not have alternative fuel technology, DNV data show. But further growth in conventional fuel buying interest may be capped, given the shipping sector's transition to net-zero carbon fuels. The number of ships capable of operating on alternative fuels is set to nearly double between 2024 and 2028 based on the current order book, DNV said in its Maritime Forecast to 2050. "Trading patterns, cargo owners' willingness to pay a premium for green transport, asset value, and technical challenges affect shipowners' willingness to invest in alternative fuel-capable ships," DNV said. Mahua Mitra and Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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