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Gulf war reverses fortunes for US OCTG demand
Gulf war reverses fortunes for US OCTG demand
Houston, 13 August (Argus) — US oil and gas drilling companies and rig owners have boosted their demand outlooks because of the global crude oil supply shock from the US-Iran war. US drilling contractors and oil country tubular goods (OCTG) producers now anticipate higher oil prices and increased oil and gas drilling to raise US demand in the second half of 2026, a far cry from declining rig counts and lower oil prices at the start of the year. Pipe and tube companies are bullish as crude oil prices bolstered by the war in the Middle East raise US drilling activity. The Argus West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fob Houston assessment stood at $84.82/bl on 11 August, up from $68.19/bl at the end of February and before the onset of the war. Rig contractors raise estimates Publicly traded drilling rig contractors have seen the greatest shift, as they now expect a second quarterly rig count increase. Drilling rig contractor Helmerich & Payne (H&P)'s shifting outlook reflects the war-fueled reversal of fortune in the industry. At the end of 2025, H&P lowered its rig count estimates for the first quarter because of lower oil prices and drilling activity. "Going into [2026], things felt relatively bearish, but I do think it's quite a different story right now," H&P chief financial office Todd Scruggs said. "We think this [third quarter] is a pretty good marker for where we're going to be in [2027], we actually think we will be improving from this base." But the stronger outlook remains contingent on oil prices staying elevated and the conflict not widening into a disruption that undercuts economic growth or drilling budgets. At the end of the first quarter, H&P and fellow drilling rig contractors Nabors and Patterson-UTI guided for the second quarter an average of 294-301 active US drilling rigs between them. The rig operators surpassed that outlook and exited the second quarter with an estimated 316 active drilling rigs in the US, which the companies expect to grow to an approximate 324 active rigs by the end of the third quarter. US private and independent oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies drove higher drilling rig demand as they capitalized on higher crude oil prices, gains that are expected to continue in the back half of the year. The US weekly active drilling rig count has held at 588 since mid July, the highest level since April 2025 and up from 539 a year earlier, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. Pipe producers expect US volumes to grow As more US drilling rigs activate, OCTG producers are working to take advantage of greater demand, import constraints and tight inventories. Higher US drilling activity and lower import volumes raised Vallourec's second quarter US tubular mill production and OCTG prices, chief executive Philippe Guillemot said on a 30 July earnings call. He added that US OCTG inventory levels are below five-year averages. Tenaris chief executive Gabriel Podskubka said the company's Bay City, Texas, seamless OCTG mill is running at record production levels to meet demand. OCTG prices have responded to the shortage and higher demand. The Argus Pipe Logix OCTG all items index, which reflects distributor selling prices, has climbed by $45/short ton (st) in July to $2,233/st, which is $224/st higher since the start of the year. Domestic OCTG mills have pushed about $600/st of price increases into the market and have struggled to bridge a large import supply gap despite raising production. US domestic OCTG pipe mill shipments collected by Argus and import volumes less exports from January-June are at 2.24mn st, down by about 500,000st from the same period in the prior year. OCTG supply declined solely on lower import volumes as major foreign OCTG suppliers like Austria and Taiwan are under US antidumping investigations, causing many US buyers to refrain from importing from those countries. The majority of US OCTG distributors remain optimistic that pricing will continue to rise, with the Argus OCTG distributors index at a positive reading of 86 in July, down by two points from June and the fifth consecutive positive reading. Multiple OCTG distributors reported sourcing difficulties in July for certain products that they would normally buy as imports and cannot find domestically. By Rye Druzchetta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India launches $2.7bn compressed biogas scheme
India launches $2.7bn compressed biogas scheme
New Delhi, 7 August (Argus) — The Indian government has approved a $2.7bn national programme to increase compressed biogas (CBG) production by nearly ten-fold over the next decade, aiming to strengthen domestic renewable gas supply and improve energy security. The union cabinet approved the Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan (GOBARdhan) scheme, which will run from the current fiscal year through the fiscal year ending March 2036, according to a government notification issued on 6 August. The scheme is designed to convert agricultural residue, cattle dung, municipal organic waste and other biomass into CBG, a renewable fuel chemically equivalent to natural gas that can be injected into existing gas distribution networks. India's 217 operational CBG plants currently produce around 0.4mn m³/d, as per the notification. The government's target implies output rising to roughly 4mn m³/d by 2035-36, based on current production levels, Argus understands. India imported around half of its natural gas requirements in 2025, with regasified LNG imports averaging about 94mn m³/d, equivalent to 24.91mn t, according to Kpler. Even if the government achieves its target of 4mn m³/d of CBG production, this would displace only around 4pc of current LNG imports, according to Argus calculations. This suggests the scheme's significance lies less in materially reducing LNG imports and more in creating a domestic renewable gas stream for the city gas distribution sector while improving energy security. Under the scheme, city gas distribution companies will be required to procure increasing volumes of CBG to meet mandatory blending targets of 3pc in the current fiscal year, 4pc in the fiscal year ending March 2028 and 5pc from the following year onwards for both compressed natural gas (CNG) and domestic piped natural gas (PNG). The government has fixed an administered CBG price of 2,110 rupees/mn Btu ($22.16/mn Btu), equivalent to around $1.1/kg, alongside capital assistance of up to $210,000/t of installed capacity for eligible projects. This is higher from the current Argus -assessed spot LNG price at $19.12/mn Btu on 6 August prices for deliveries to west India for the first-half of September, as well as the average price of $11.98/mn Btu for 2025. Additional support includes funding for pipeline connectivity, credit guarantees covering up to 85pc of eligible loans for small enterprises, and a challenge fund aimed at strengthening local feedstock and supply chains. "The GOBARdhan scheme is the first biogas policy in India that tackles all three bottlenecks that kept private capital out of the sector: assured offtake, stable pricing, and capital support in a single framework," said Dilip Patil, regional director-west for the Indian Federation of Green Energy. The real impact of this will not be measured in kilograms of gas alone, but in paddy straw baled instead of burnt, dung that earns a dairy farmer a second income, fermented organic manure that rebuilds depleted soils, and a reduction in imported LNG that no longer needs to be paid for, Indian Biogas Association chairman Gaurav Kumar Kedia said. By Rituparna Ghosh and Nikhil Sharma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's Beach to raise oil, gas output in FY27
Australia's Beach to raise oil, gas output in FY27
Sydney, 6 August (Argus) — Rebuilding reserves will be a priority for Australian independent Beach Energy in its July 2026-June 2027 fiscal year, the firm said in its full-year results published today. It has also set a higher production guidance for the 2026-27 fiscal year, forecasting 19.5mn-23mn bl of oil equivalent (boe) for the fiscal year, up from 19.4mn boe in the 2025-26 fiscal year . This is due to increased volumes from Beach's Waitsia gas plant in Western Australia given that the 250 TJ/d joint venture operated by Japan's Mitsui reached capacity in April after being hampered by performance issues during start-up. Ongoing discussions are underway with the Western Australian government and the 14.3mn t/yr North West Shelf LNG terminal on extending Waitsia's permit to export LNG beyond the end of 2028 . Waitsia can export about 1.5mn t/yr under the existing deal. Beach's underlying net profit was down by 21pc on the year to A$355mn ($250mn) due to lower sales revenue, impacts of a flood in the Cooper basin in South Australia and a decline in offshore Otway basin assets, with field decline of close to 10pc. Its capital management strategy aims to grow organic and inorganic reserves and to look at acquisitions, Beach said, with A$983mn in available liquidity on its balance sheet to fund potential acquisitions. It is targeting final investment decisions (FIDs) for a two-well exploration campaign in the nearshore Otway basin in the first half of its 2026-27 fiscal year and expects to take an FID for the Waitsia inlet compression project in January-June 2027. Beach holds a 25pc stake in the ATP 2081 exploration permit in Queensland's onshore Taroom trough where a two-well exploration campaign is planned in October-December, with operator Omega Oil and Gas considering a seismic survey in the 2027-28 fiscal year. The federal government's planned domestic supply obligation (DSO) to oversupply the market with gas from LNG producers' projects has been strongly opposed by Beach. Negotiations continue on the final design of the scheme, but chief executive Brett Woods said he was continuing to advocate for a fair system for domestic suppliers, noting that the competition regulator the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has said A$12-13/GJ gas prices were needed to continue to support the market. Beach reported a realised gas price of A$11.50/GJ last fiscal year. Some contracting of gas supply has occurred in recent months, Woods said, despite uncertainty about the DSO's impact, at "strong pricing in and around ACCC-identified levels". A final outcome on the DSO design is expected by the end of 2026 ahead of commencement in July next year. The Argus -assessed AWX for spot gas deliveries in August to Wallumbilla rose by about A$0.08/GJ from a week earlier to A$10.65/GJ on 31 July, while Argus ' AVX for August deliveries into Victoria fell by A$0.08/GJ from a week earlier to A$10.35/GJ. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
France to frontload gas stockbuild to meet obligations
France to frontload gas stockbuild to meet obligations
London, 5 August (Argus) — The fill level for French storage sites is well below this point in recent years, but the injection rate needed to meet the government's 85pc target looks achievable, with injections likely to be front-loaded in August-September because of technical constraints at two key sites. Stocks stood at 71.7TWh, or 57.9pc of capacity, this morning, GIE transparency platform data show — 27.8TWh, or 18.3pc, below the five-year average for the date. Regulator CRE requires suppliers to fill 85pc of booked capacity by 1 November, and all French capacity has been booked for the 2026-27 storage year. Suppliers failing to meet this obligation face a fine of up to twice the value of their shortfall. To meet the 85pc target, equal to 105.3TWh, French net injections will need to be 428 GWh/d on 5 August-31 October — well above the 301 GWh/d five-year average for the period. That said, technical constraints at the 44.9TWh Serene Atlantique and 15TWh Serene Nord sites require inventories at both to reach 90pc by 30 September, further tightening France's injection trajectory over the next three months. With Serene Atlantique 61.6pc full and Serene Nord at 66.7pc, suppliers may need to front-load injections in August-September. Taking into account the 90pc end-September requirement for the two Serene sites, and assuming injections progress linearly at sites subject to the 85pc end-October target, the required pace would be higher in the near term. Injections would need to be 539 GWh/d in August-September, before dropping to 231 GWh/d in October. These rates are well above recent norms. The five-year average for 5 August-30 September is 391 GWh/d, and in October the average falls to just 134 GWh/d. That said, sites are typically much fuller at this time of the year, and injections typically slow because of pressure constraints near capacity. Further fill limitations this year could result from pressure-related injection rate deterioration at salt caverns — including Sediane and the Serene facilities — as well as maintenance. Both Serene sites are expected to record injection rate cuts of 20-35pc for most of September, while Sediane is scheduled for a 30pc reduction from 7 September to 16 October. French sites must use an average of 71.5pc of available injection capacity until 31 October, after accounting for maintenance and pressure limitations. The requirement is higher at the two constrained Serene sites, with Serene Atlantique and Serene Nord required to use 81.6pc and 81.2pc, respectively, until 30 September. LNG supply may support build Bookings at French LNG import terminals are looking busier for August-October, suggesting a recovery in sendout and ample supply for the stockbuild. Regasification in July was the lowest since August 2021, but the outlook for August and the next two months is more supportive. The inter-basin arbitrage for US Gulf coast loadings is considered closed, which could accelerate deliveries to Europe from the second half of August and leave more supply for injections. French terminal operators' Fluxys and Elengy nominations suggest just over 29 deliveries a month on average in August-October, more than double July's 12. By Maxim Krukov French storage trajectory last five years % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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