Overview
Fuels for road transportation continue to drive the refining industry. But gasoline and diesel use is coming under increasing pressure from the introduction of low-carbon targets around the world.
Global oversupply, new regulatory measures and rapidly increasing competition for export markets are affecting refining margins. The need for accurate insight and data is more critical than ever.
Argus road fuels coverage includes price assessments and key insights into conventional fuels — gasoline, middle distillates and blending components — as well as biofuels, in each key region. Our trusted prices are delivered alongside the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts and forward curves data.
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Nigeria issues 2Q gasoline import permits: Sources
Nigeria issues 2Q gasoline import permits: Sources
Lagos, 7 May (Argus) — Nigeria has issued permits for the import of over 700,000t of gasoline — up from permits for only 180,000t issued in March — heading off a fuel shortage projected by downstream regulator NMDPRA for the end of the second quarter, sources told Argus . The import permits were granted to product marketers AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono, Matrix, Nipco and Pinnacle — which were also the recipients in March of all but one of the seven permits issued for the first quarter. The new permits are each in the range of 60,000–180,000t, sources in NMDPRA and a large international trading firm said. Nigeria strictly limited gasoline import permits in January–April and has seen intense political conflict between importers and domestic refiners this year. Sources told Argus that pressure on the government from importers would peak whenever gasoline prices at Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery rose above import parity prices in February–April. NMDPRA data shows Dangote accounted for 92pc of Nigerian gasoline supply in February, edging down to 85pc in March, on the back of import permits issued that month. Dangote increased gasoline supply to the domestic market by about 16pc on the month to 34,000 t/d in April, but that was below NMDPRA's 42,000 t/d adequate supply target. The refiner exported more gasoline after the US-Iran war started as that was more profitable, sources told Argus . Gasoline exports were aimed at supporting neighbouring countries through the geopolitical crisis, Dangote told Argus last week. The refiner has maintained production above 46,000 t/d in April and May, up from 41,000 t/d in March, according to regulatory data. Nigeria's import permits are valid only until the end of the quarter they cover with additional and strict regulatory approvals required for product delivery delayed beyond the three-month period covered by permits under which cargoes are imported. Permits were usually issued in advance of the relevant quarter, but have been granted well into the relevant quarter this year. First quarter gasoline import permits issued to the six companies in mid-March totalled 180,000t, compared with permits for 4.3mn t to cover the fourth quarter of 2025 that were issued to 43 companies in September. The March permits required the intervention of President Bola Tinubu with the NMDPRA chief executive, sources close to the presidency and in NMDPRA told Argus . Tinubu replaced that NMDPRA chief last week — having only appointed him in December because the six marketers' permits were not renewed for the second quarter, the sources said. The former NMDPRA chief executive changed regulatory policy this year to issue import permits only to fill gaps in domestic refinery supply. Nigeria previously maintained a 30-day gasoline stocks sufficiency floor, or 1.26mn t, for guiding the issuance of import permits. But the former NMDPRA chief reduced that to 20 days from January as part of the new policy, sources said. The country was down to about 16 days' supply by 24 April, and was projected to face shortages towards the end of the quarter when Tinubu made the NMDPRA chief executive change. The new NMDPRA chief executive, who stopped being Dangote chief commercial officer last year, told Nigeria's senate, "Energy security doesn't mean just having enough products for 20 days or 30 days but [ensuring] adequate stock that can be used as a buffer should there be a shortfall in production or in importation," before he was confirmed by the legislative body on 5 May. Tinubu said the most senior NMDPRA official should oversee regulatory operations in an acting capacity before confirmation of the new chief executive. The new import permits were issued under that arrangement, an NMDPRA source told Argus . International traders, including BP, are holding stocks of Nigerian spec gasoline offshore west Africa and gasoline deliveries to Nigeria will start with the issuance of the permits, two sources told Argus . By Adebiyi Olusolape and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kenya lowers fuel standards to ease supply access
Kenya lowers fuel standards to ease supply access
Dubai, 6 May (Argus) — Kenya has temporarily lowered diesel and gasoline quality standards to ease challenges in sourcing fuels because of the US-Iran war in the Middle East. Sulphur limits for gasoil and gasoline have been lowered to 50ppm from the 10ppm for six months from 1 May, according to Kenya's ministry of investments, trade and industry. The measure is introduced to ensure the stability of fuel imports while sourcing higher quality fuels proves difficult. It also allows Kenya to choose from a wider range of fuel suppliers. The policy will be reviewed at the end of the six-month period, or earlier if global supply conditions improve, the ministry said. This comes just a month after Kenya's energy ministry ordered the re-export of a gasoline cargo that may not have met regional fuel standard. The cargo was imported outside of the government-to-government agreements between Kenya and Mideast Gulf NOCs, under which Kenya sources majority of its diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from the Saudi state-controlled Aramco, and the UAE's state-owned Adnoc and Enoc. But supply security on this route has significantly deteriorated since Iran's de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz in March locked in Mideast Gulf production. Kenya sourced around 66pc of its diesel and 24pc of its gasoline imports from the Gulf in 2025, but received none of either from that region in April according to Kpler data. Kenya's reversion to importing lower quality fuels mirrors efforts of the wider east African region to ensure supply stability. Fuels have been arriving from unusual supply regions like the US or Nigeria to replace lost supplies from the Middle East, but this in turn reflects in higher retail prices. Diesel and gasoline prices surged in the latest monthly fuel price review done by Kenya's energy and petroleum regulatory authority EPRA on 14 April. The diesel price rose by 24pc on the month to 206.84 Kenyan shillings/l ($1.59/l), while gasoline price rose by 16pc to KSh206.97/l. EPRA cited the cost of imported products, which they said had risen by as much as 68pc for diesel and 42pc for gasoline between March and April. The price increase already accounts for the government's decision to cut value added tax on both fuels to cushion consumers from the price surge. "The ministry [of energy and petroleum] wishes to reassure Kenyans that country has adequate fuel stocks and there should be no cause for alarm", said Kenya's cabinet secretary Opiyo Wanday on 6 May. But the country may struggle to replace all lost supplies from the Mideast Gulf if the closure of the strait of Hormuz continues. By Ieva Paldaviciute Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Economic recovery lifts German diesel demand in 2025
Economic recovery lifts German diesel demand in 2025
Hamburg, 6 May (Argus) — German diesel demand rose in 2025 for the first time in six years, signalling a recovery in industrial activity after a prolonged period of economic weakness, latest data from the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (Bafa) show. But the current conflict in the Middle East could yet reverse this nascent trend. The rise in diesel demand reflects a modest rebound in economic activity. After two consecutive years of recession, Germany's economy returned to growth last year, expanding by 0.2pc, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The downturn had been triggered by Russia's war against Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on the Russian energy sector, which pushed energy prices sharply higher across Europe — and especially in Germany. Higher costs weighed heavily on domestic industry, with the chemicals sector particularly affected. As a result, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.9pc in 2023 and by 0.5pc in 2024 (see chart) . Prolonged economic weakness over this period also depressed diesel demand. Lower industrial output reduces transport needs for intermediate goods and finished products, cutting truck movements and, in turn, diesel consumption. This pattern is evident in Bafa fuel data. After the Covid-19 crisis caused a sharp fall in diesel demand in 2020 and 2021, consumption fell again in 2022 and declined further in 2023 and 2024. The increase recorded in 2025 therefore marks the first reversal in diesel demand since 2019 (see chart). It appears unlikely, however, that the recovery will be sustained this year in the wake of the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has driven a sharp rise in energy prices since late February. GDP in the first quarter of 2026 rose by 0.5pc year on year, according to Destatis, but the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWE) says the performance was largely driven by positive momentum before the war started. Destatis' truck mileage index and data from the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) both point to a marked deterioration in economic conditions in March. BMWE attributes the slowdown mainly to higher energy and raw material costs, compounded by disruptions to supply chains for intermediate goods. By Johannes Guhlke German Diesel inland deliveries German GDP year on year change Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia announces $7.7bn fuel security package
Australia announces $7.7bn fuel security package
Sydney, 6 May (Argus) — Australia's upcoming budget will include a A$10.7bn ($7.7bn) package aimed at strengthening national fuel and fertilizer security, including the creation of a permanent, government-owned fuel reserve of about 1bn litres (6.29mn bl) and an increase in the country's minimum stockholding obligation (MSO). The package is intended to support the increase of the MSO by about 10 days, as part of wider efforts to increase the government-owned stockpile of gasoil, jet fuel and gasoline to 50 days, the federal government said today. The government will consult on implementation of the reserve, including its ability to underwrite or purchase fuel, support storage infrastructure and trade stocks during severe or prolonged supply disruptions. Of the total funding, A$7.5bn will be allocated to establish a facility to increase fuel and fertilizer supply and storage through financial support mechanisms such as loans, equity, guarantees, insurance and price support. A further A$3.2bn will be used to fund the government-owned fuel reserve, which will focus on addressing regional stockouts. The increased MSO will be supported by A$34.7mn over four years for the ongoing management of Australia's fuel security. The budget will also include A$10mn to support feasibility studies into new or expanded fuel refining capacity, to be co-funded with state and territory governments. At least one proposal already has backing from both federal and state governments to assess the potential for additional refining capacity, prime minister Anthony Albanese said today. The government said the changes will be implemented progressively and supported by investment in new and refurbished fuel storage infrastructure. Further details of the Australian Fuel Security and Resilience package will be released with the federal budget next week. Australia held 33 days of gasoil, 43 days of gasoline and 28 days of jet fuel stocks as of 28 April, energy minister Chris Bowen said on 2 May. Australian fuel importers under the MSO are required to hold 32 days' supply of gasoil, and 27 days of gasoline and jet fuel, while local refiners, Viva Energy and Ampol, are required to hold 20 days of gasoil and 24 days of gasoline and jet fuel. A 20pc reduction to the MSO is currently in place, first implemented in March to allow more supply of gasoil and gasoline in response to panic buying-induced shortages. The centre right Coalition opposition said last week it would seek to double the country's mandated fuel stocks if it returns to government after the next federal election. An A$800mn energy security package would lift the MSO to 60 days by early 2028 and expand domestic storage capacity by at least 6.29mn bl, opposition leader Angus Taylor said on 28 April, adding that the policy would increase retail fuel prices by "about a cent a litre". Western Australia and Victoria have already established their own strategic gasoil reserves, while other states are considering similar measures. State governments have also begun amending legislation in anticipation of a worsening fuel outlook, with Western Australia amending its Fuel, Energy and Power Resources Act on 5 May and South Australia proposing legislation to expand its authority to impose fuel rationing on 4 May. Australia is currently operating under level two of its National Fuel Emergency Response framework, under which national fuel supply remains functional but localised disruptions are occurring. By Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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