Light olefins
Overview
The global light olefins market is made up of ethylene and propylene monomers. These product markets can be affected by a great many factors.
Ethylene is the most widely used commodity chemical and is produced globally in all major regions. It is converted into many products used in daily life like plastic packaging, durable goods, hygiene products and other consumer items. The ethylene market is driven primarily by regions of low production cost and regions of high demand growth. Polyethylene, ethylene’s largest derivative, represents about 65pc of global ethylene demand. Anyone involved in the ethylene industry – directly or indirectly – needs market and pricing insight to anticipate supply shortages and potential swings in pricing.
Propylene is the second most widely used commodity chemical and is produced globally in all major regions. Propylene is a volatile commodity because of its predominantly co-product nature and unpredictable supply, but recently the industry has been trending to more on-purpose production. It is converted into many products used in daily life like plastic packaging, durable goods, automotive products, and woven fabrics. Polypropylene, propylene ’s largest derivative, represents about 70pc of global propylene demand. Anyone involved in the propylene industry – directly or indirectly – needs market and pricing insight to anticipate supply shortages and potential swings in pricing.
Our light olefins experts will help you determine what trends to track and how to stay competitive in today’s ever-changing global market.
Latest light olefins news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global light olefins industry.
US PE exports to Brazil at risk with higher duties
US PE exports to Brazil at risk with higher duties
Houston, 12 February (Argus) — More than 9pc of US polyethylene (PE) exports will need to find a new home if the Brazilian government moves forward with a recommendation that would nearly triple provisional anti-dumping duties on imports of US PE. The proposal, made by Brazil's department of trade defense Decom, calculated a duty of $734.32/metric tonne for US exporters, up from current provisional anti-dumping duties of $199.04/t on US-origin PE. The proposals for Canada are not nearly as steep, with one Canadian producer facing new anti-dumping duties of $264.99/t and another facing $232/t. The current provisional anti-dumping duty for Canada is $238.49/t. A final decision on making the proposed duties permanent is not expected until mid-May. While some volumes will still likely be able to move from Canada under the new proposal, the higher US duties would effectively cut off Brazil as an export option for US producers, forcing them to find new alternative destinations. "Does that choke off US-sourced imports from going into Brazil? If it does, where does [that volume] go," said one North American PE producer. "It has to go somewhere." From January through November 2025, the US exported 1.268mn t of PE to Brazil, representing 9.2pc of total exports, according to data from Global Trade Tracker. That represented an average of more than 115,000t of material a month, though volumes began to decline sharply in October and November, with total volumes in November down to 83,768t. The current provisional anti-dumping duties were imposed in August 2025, but had a limited effect on Brazil's imports last year, as the US remained Brazil's top supplier, even as it lost market share, official Comexstat data from Brazil showed. "Some people were able to limp along with the $200/t duty, but this [proposed duty] doubles your price," said one US exporter. "It kills it [trade] at that point." Another US exporter said most of its customers in Brazil have already stopped discussions about US material. A few customers had long-term contracts that lasted through the end of the year, but those customers will no longer buy US material in 2026, the trader said. "Our clients, even with the $199/t duty were reluctant. It's become a moot point — $734/t is crazy. How can you do that?" the trader said. Brazil is not self-sufficient, and will still need PE imports, but traders said they expect Brazilian customers to turn to material from the Middle East or Asia to fill in supply gaps. That will result in a trade shift, with material from the US filling in gaps that Middle Eastern or Asian material used to fill. "Brazil has to be filled in with something, and that will starve other markets," said the US exporter. "I think you will see a shifting of trade routes, and the markets will still balance." The exporter said Europe and Africa are likely to become new top destinations for US material. By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil flags sharp US PE dumping duties
Brazil flags sharp US PE dumping duties
Sao Paulo, 5 February (Argus) — Brazil has issued a recommendation that could nearly triple provisional anti-dumping duties on US polyethylene (PE) imports, effectively shutting out most shipments, according to a department of trade defense Decom report into US and Canadian exports. The report, issued on 2 February and seen by Argus , outlines the key findings of the investigation into PE imports under NCM codes 3901.10.30, 3901.20.29 and 3901.40.00. Decom — part of trade ministry Mdic — calculated a dumping margin of $734.32/metric tonne (t), equivalent to 79.3pc, for US exporters. The authority determined dumping margins for Canada of $264.99/t (26.9pc) for one producer-exporter and $232/t (26.3pc) for another. Dumped imports are causing material injury to Brazil's domestic resin industry, and a causal link exists between the injury and the imports under investigation, Decom said. Brazil currently enforces provisional anti-dumping duties of $199.04/t on US-origin PE and $238.49/t on Canadian-origin material. These provisional duties were imposed in August 2025 and remain in effect through 28 February as the investigation moves into its final phase. Interested parties have a 20-day window to file final comments following the report's publication. Once that period ends, Decom will prepare its final determination and forward it to foreign trade chamber, Camex. The Camex executive management committee (Gecex) is expected to make a final decision by 14 May, the legal deadline for concluding the probe. The outcome of the case is expected to have significant implications for regional PE trade flows. Market participants await Decom's final findings, which will determine whether the provisional duties are upheld, revised, or lifted entirely. Limited effect The provisional duties had a limited effect on Brazil's imports last year, as the US remained Brazil's top supplier even as it lost market share, official Comexstat data show. Brazil's PE import values totaled $1.61bn last year, a 1.7pc decrease from $1.63bn in 2024. Import volumes increased by 2.2pc to 1.46mn t in 2025 from 1.42mn t the prior year. The US was Brazil's main exporter, accounting for around 961,890t last year, with its share of total volume falling to 66pc from 71pc in 2024. Argentina was the second-largest exporter to Brazil, shipping nearly 218,380t last year and boosting its share to 15pc from 11pc. Saudi Arabia rose to third place with approximately 56,445t, representing 4pc of Brazil's total imports last year. Canada's deliveries fell by 40pc to 49,810t in 2025, with its share falling to 3.4pc from 6pc in 2024. Egypt dropped to fifth place with around 47,795t, accounting for 3.3pc of the total volume. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US homes more affordable as incomes rise: NAR
US homes more affordable as incomes rise: NAR
Houston, 4 February (Argus) — US housing affordability improved in the fourth quarter, extending a trend that emerged during the second half of 2025 after a fourth-month skid earlier in the year. Growth in personal income outpaced rising home prices in the US during the fourth quarter, improving affordability to the highest levels in more more than a year, new data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show. The NAR's quarterly affordability index rose to 109.1 in the fourth quarter of 2025,its preliminary Housing Affordability Index (HAI) shows. HAI values of 100 show that a family with the median US income has enough to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signals increasing affordability of a median family income. Median preexisting single-family home prices rose to $414,900 during the fourth quarter, up by 1.2pc from the same three-month period in 2024. The median family income rose by 4.7pc during the same period. Additionally, the average mortgage interest rate fell to 6.31pc from 6.74pc in the fourth quarter the prior year. NAR's affordability index remained below 100 in 2023 and 2024, contributing to slower housing demand during the two-year period. But affordability rebounded into the third quarter of 2025 from the prior quarter and continued to improve through the end of the year. Increasing housing affordability in the US is a bullish demand signal for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producers and distributors. PVC is widely used in housing construction, and improved home affordability could spur new construction and strengthen PVC demand after two years of lagging consumption. Housing starts fell to a five-year low in October 2025, the most recent data point, indicating that a recovery in 2026 is unlikely. Mortgage rates need to fall further to induce demand as many would-be buyers remain locked into their current homes with previously-low mortgage rates, sources said. Rising incomes could alleviate otherwise low consumer sentiment and spur buying interest, while strong home prices coupled with lower borrowing rates could increase interest for new building projects. But signs currently point to the 2026 building season being a replay of 2025. By Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil petchem industry flags Reiq 2026 gap
Brazil petchem industry flags Reiq 2026 gap
Sao Paulo, 2 February (Argus) — Brazilian chemical and petrochemical industry associations are urging the federal government to deliver a rapidfix for the 2026 gap in the Special Chemical Industry Regime (Reiq), warning that regulatory uncertainty is accelerating plant shutdowns and job losses across key production hubs. In a joint letter sent on 26 January to vice-president and industry minister Geraldo Alckmin, labor unions and industry groups — including Abiquim — said presidential vetoes affecting Reiq in December by removing key tax-relief provisions and carried into the newly enacted Special Sustainability Program for the Chemical Industry (Presiq), which focuses on the national petrochemical chain modernization,have created an "immediate and severe" impact on domestic producers, mainly due to the sudden loss of a long-standing cost-reduction tool with no transitional safeguards. Companies in Sao Paulo state have already closed units and cut shifts in Cubatao and Guaruja, according to the groups. Industry groups argue that without the Reiq tax relief, historically centered on PIS/Cofins reductions for feedstocks such as naphtha and natural gas and effectively revoked by the presidential vetoes — Brazil's chemical chain faces intensified competitive pressure from global oversupply, foreign subsidy schemes and aggressive pricing from Asian and Middle Eastern exporters. The regulatory gap is prompting irreversible divestment decisions, threatening the core of Brazil's petrochemical complex, they say. The entities called on the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (Mdic) to restore predictability for 2026, saying the issue is no longer a tax debate but a strategic decision for Brazil's industrial competitiveness and employment base. The government has recently highlighted industrial policy priorities through its New Brazil Industry program and strengthened trade-defense tools, but the signatories said action on the Reiq must come "urgently, preferably in January," to avoid further disruption. History President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva vetoed provisions in December 2025 that would have extended Reiq benefits into 2026 or ensured an automatic transition to the Presiq framework. The administration cited fiscal responsibility and the absence of compensatory budget measures. With Presiq scheduled to begin only in 2027, the vetoes leave a regulatory gap in 2026. By Isabela Mendes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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