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US issues waiver to allow E15 gasoline: Update
US issues waiver to allow E15 gasoline: Update
Updates throughout New York, 25 March (Argus) — The US will allow refiners and retailers to supply a gasoline blend with more ethanol than is usually allowed in some states, starting in May, and will waive other fuel rules, amid efforts to temper pump prices that have surged because of war in the Middle East. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Wednesday issued emergency waivers allowing continued nationwide sales of gasoline with up to 15pc ethanol (E15), administrator Lee Zeldin announced Wednesday in brief remarks at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas. The typically cheaper blend would have otherwise been restricted in much of the US during the summer because of rules to limit smog that do not apply to typical E10 gasoline despite a similar volatility profile. The waivers also standardize blending rules across the US, reducing the risk of price spikes in areas where boutique rules can create fuel islands. The agency said this would help create more of a "single national gasoline pool" this summer. For instance, EPA is allowing continued sales of E10 this summer in a group of Midwestern states that would have otherwise required that blend to be mixed with less volatile but costlier blendstocks. Governors of those seven states had asked for that carveout after war in the Middle East broke out. The agency will also suspend federal enforcement of requirements for other regions of the US to switch to similarly low-volatility "boutique" gasoline fuel blends this summer. California and major metro areas such as Denver, Colorado make the switch each year as part of federally approved plans to comply with national air quality standards. It will be up to states and local jurisdictions to decide whether to maintain those specific standards, the agency said. "Through the waiver, we are fortifying the domestic gasoline supply chain and providing Americans relief at the pumps ahead of the upcoming summer driving season," Zeldin said. EPA can issue emergency waivers in "extreme or unusual" fuel supply situations that last 20 days and will have to be renewed to last through the summer. The Wednesday announcement weeks ahead of the start of the summer driving season comes after oil refiners lobbied President Donald Trump's administration to clarify its summer plan s sooner than in years past. The first round of emergency waivers last year came just days before summer driving season kicked off, frustrating fuel makers and distributors that had already invested millions to move to the boutique Midwestern blend. Pipelines too start moving to summer blends well before fuel reaches motorists. Fight in Congress continues While EPA has issued emergency waivers allowing continued E15 sales for the last four years, ethanol advocates cheered the announcement. "With rising fuel prices and a war in the Middle East, this is the worst time to force retailers to bag E15 pumps," said Iowa Renewable Fuels Association executive director Monte Shaw. But they also pushed Congress to find a more durable solution that does not depend on regulators. Congress has struggled for months to reach agreement on biofuel policy legislation that would permanently adjust air quality rules to allow E15 sales year-round. Some refiners have objected to earlier proposals that would restrict their ability to win exemptions from biofuel blend mandates. Lobbyists close to the debate say there is disagreement in Congress over whether to continue pushing for far-reaching biofuel legislation that limits those exemptions or a slimmer E15 bill instead. Senate Agriculture Committee chair John Boozman (R-Arkansas) said at an event in Washington, DC on Monday that he supports E15 but that restricting exemptions could lead small refineries, including one in his state, to close. Ethanol is typically cheaper than gasoline blendstocks, and the spread has widened since Tehran has retaliated against US-Israeli strikes by attacking energy infrastructure and halting tanker traffic. At the same time, E15 is not sold at the vast majority of retail fuel stations in the US, limiting the role the biofuel can play in curbing pump prices without other changes. Farm advocates blame the lack of availability on the long-running impasse in Congress deterring retailers from investing in higher-blend infrastructure. EPA is separately planning to finalize new biofuel blend quotas, which shape production margins for ethanol and demand for crops like corn, sometime this month. By Cole Martin and Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
War-driven volatility threatens LNG growth: Execs
War-driven volatility threatens LNG growth: Execs
Houston, 25 March (Argus) — Elevated LNG costs from the US-Iran war could price out developing countries once seen as key sources of future demand growth from being able to afford supplies, LNG executives said this week. Before the war, LNG developers were planning for a global LNG surplus beginning this year to unlock new demand in developing countries throughout the remainder of the decade. But damage to Qatar's LNG infrastructure and disruptions to its expansion plans may make LNG too expensive for those countries' fuel mixes, LNG executives said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas. Rapid growth for downstream LNG demand will come from developing economies that have less access to credit, so they cannot afford LNG at high prices, Cheniere chief commercial officer Anatol Feygin said. "That's the challenge that this market is going to have to navigate with this incremental, massive shock to the system," Feygin said. In a separate panel, Alisa Newman Hood, executive vice president of LNG import infrastructure firm Excelerate Energy, cited Bangladesh's decision to close all universities in early March to conserve electricity as an example of demand destruction. Wealthier Asian countries can turn to the spot market when contracted supplies are cut off, but it hits hardest on governments that cannot afford the surging prices, she said. Long-term growth for LNG will be capped unless prices remain stable and affordable, Cheniere chief executive Jack Fusco said in another panel. Potential delays to Qatar's planned 40mn t/yr of expansions are the "most impactful", Venture Global chief executive Mike Sabel said in an interview with reporters. "That's an enormous amount of volume that the market was expecting on a certain schedule," Sabel said. Traders in the forward curve have already begun pricing in the likelihood of those delays, along with the potential for 12.8mn t/yr of Qatar's 77mn t/yr Ras Laffan being off line for three to five years after a missile strike this month. Seasonal prices in the European benchmark TTF were trading Wednesday above $10/mn Btu through the winter of 2028-2029, Argus data show. Before the war, seasonal TTF prices were trading below $10/mn Btu from summer 2027 onward. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Germany presents new climate action programme
Germany presents new climate action programme
Berlin, 25 March (Argus) — Germany's cabinet today presented a climate action programme with a strong focus on renewable power and industry electrification, encompassing 67 measures designed to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 27mn t/yr of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) until 2030, although the country's climate experts warned that it is unlikely to achieve these reductions. The measures will plug the 25mn t CO2e annual reduction gap flagged in last year's official forecasts, environment minister Carsten Schneider said. The forecasts have since been superseded by data presented by federal environment office UBA earlier this month indicating a 42mn t/yr CO2e gap. The main drivers of the action programme are additional tenders for onshore wind power capacity over 12GW, and an extra €2.9bn of subsidies for industry electrification projects. The additional wind installations are expected to achieve emissions reductions of 6.5mn t CO2e in 2030 and lower wholesale power prices by €6/MWh, Schneider said. The majority will be installed in the relatively wind-poor but energy-hungry south of the country, or in priority areas, so it will not be affected by potential future legislation limiting grid access, Schneider said. Industrial electrification subsidies are expected to lead to emissions reductions of 4.3mn t CO2e in 2030. And Schneider stressed that his ministry expects the transport and buildings sectors, which have been lagging behind in recent years, to accelerate decarbonisation in the late 2020s. A €3bn subsidy scheme with income-based support will allow for the purchase of about 800,000 electric vehicles, leading to emissions savings of 1mn t CO2e in 2030. And the government expects the planned road transport GHG reduction quota now under parliamentary scrutiny to yield emissions reductions of 6.3mn t CO2e in 2030, while funding for new heat grids will save 2.3mn t CO2e in 2030. Germany's land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector will receive €4.7bn across 23 measures including the rewetting of peatlands and conversion of forests, although the effects will be felt mainly after 2030, Schneider said. Proposals by the economy ministry , which would take pressure off fossil fuel heating systems, are likely to be counterbalanced by the current energy crisis, Schneider said, as homeowners buying a new heating system are now likely to think differently about investing in another gas-fired system. The climate action plan will make Germany "more modern and more independent of oil and gas", Schneider said, reducing its natural gas consumption by almost 7 bcm³ in 2030 and its petrol consumption by about 4bn litres — down by 9pc on current annual levels, Schneider said. The government was legally obliged to present a climate action programme under the country's climate action law, and it must also be scrutinised by parliament. Germany aims to cut its emissions by 65pc in 2030 compared with 1990 levels. They stood 48pc below 1990 levels last year. The country's council of experts on climate change ERK, tasked with scrutinising the programme, said today that it lacks novelty and ambition and is unlikely to achieve the expected reductions. The ERK, which said it was commenting subject to a more detailed review, criticised the government's strong focus on the energy sector and its insufficient relief for households on low and middle incomes, particularly in the heating sector, even though the need for social measures to accompany climate change policy will continue to grow. The ERK urged the government to look at more innovative measures such as "white certificates" for energy efficiency or a bonus-malus system for cars. It is "questionable" whether the programme's measures "adequately" address the challenge of restructuring Germany's fossil fuel-dependent "capital stock", Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research chief economist Ottmar Edenhofer said. It lacks "credible" policy instruments providing "clear incentives" to switch to technologies such as electric cars or heat pumps, added Edenhofer, who is also chair of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change. Germany's solar association BSW flagged the "gap between aspiration and reality", given the economy and energy ministry's plans to axe support for small-scale rooftop solar systems. And German wood industry association HDH warned against restrictions to forestry management, which it said will limit the supply of raw materials for climate-friendly timber construction. Environmental group DUH announced it will once again sue the government for the programme unless it is improved, particularly regarding the transport sector. DUH won a case against the government's previous climate action programme in January . The climate action programme stands on "shaky ground", think-tank Agora Energiewende director Julia Blaesius warned, given that it is based on outdated data and in light of planned legislation changes. Blaesius emphasised the importance of a "reliable" carbon price to provide planning and investment security to households and companies, as well as revenues for Germany's climate and transformation fund, which finances much of the programme's measures. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Volatility limits liquidity in energy paper markets
Volatility limits liquidity in energy paper markets
London, 25 March (Argus) — Price volatility stemming from the war in the Middle East is now triggering internal risk-management rules that limit the size of traders' positions, in turn reducing liquidity in energy paper markets and helping to reinforce the volatility. A similar pattern has emerged in at least four major markets — crude, refined products, biofuels and natural gas — since the conflict began, traders said. LPG swaps are traded mostly over the counter, making liquidity harder to gauge. Monday 23 March was one of the most volatile days of the war for oil and gas futures, after the US and Iran issued contradictory statements about negotiations . Front-month Ice gasoil futures fell by more than 10pc in the half-hour after US president Donald Trump's initial comments about peace talks, before rebounding to settle 4.5pc lower on the day. As crude and refined product prices have swung rapidly, some biofuel premiums to gasoil or gasoline have moved in the opposite direction, keeping outright biofuel prices more stable. But many biofuel paper contracts are linked to premiums rather than outright values, and at least four traders said Value at Risk (VaR) limits were now constraining their positions. One trader said participants would normally try to counter sharp price moves by taking positions in the opposite direction, but this "natural brake" was slipping because of tighter position limits. Oil companies, banks and hedge funds manage paper market exposure using VaR, which measures the size and probability of potential losses. Internal rules require traders to shrink positions as VaR rises. Most VaR calculations incorporate recent volatility, so sharp price swings in recent weeks are now feeding back into lower allowable position sizes. Margin call Margin requirements are also curbing activity. As volatility increases, exchanges demand larger cash deposits for the same size of position. Traders may be forced to reduce positions to meet those requirements, or be unable to take new ones. Ice now requires cash equivalent to nearly 10pc of the value of an Ice gasoil futures contract for any long or short position. In LNG markets, several participants were seeking additional credit this month to meet margin calls, although they said the situation was not as acute as in 2022. Traders said margin-driven constraints on Ice gasoil liquidity were widespread in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and liquidity only returned to pre-war levels around June 2023. Open interest in Ice gasoil futures fell to a more than one-year low in the week to 10 March, down by 17pc since the war began, exchange data show. It edged higher the following week but remained 16pc lower. Net long positions held by hedge funds and other money managers were at a 13-week high just before the war started, but have fallen by 26pc since then. One trader said funds may be more sensitive to VaR than oil companies because their entire book is exposed to market risk, with no offsetting physical exposure. Money managers have increased their activity in commodity paper markets in recent years, a senior paper market participant said, attracted by the profits reported by commodity specialists such as Trafigura and Vitol. But having no physical exposure, funds may move in and out of positions faster than energy companies. Their participation could fall if volatility causes large losses, he said. Paper market liquidity is likely to remain tight even after the war ends, because VaR models typically look back at recent volatility, a trader said. As liquidity declines and volatility increases, traders report wider bid-offer spreads. Outside exchanges, competing brokers have simultaneously quoted over-the-counter swap values differing by more than $50/t, while others have stopped quoting certain swap values altogether. By Josh Michalowski, Bonnie Lao, Evelina Lungu, Christian Hotten, and Efcharis Sgourou Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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