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Europe faces challenging gas restocking season
Europe faces challenging gas restocking season
London, 16 April (Argus) — Europe faces its toughest gas injection season since 2022, because stocks are at a four-year low and the continent must secure LNG cargoes at a time of tightened global supply. Underground inventories across the EU were at just 314TWh on 1 April, equivalent to 27.7pc of capacity. This was down from 387TWh a year earlier and well below the three-year average of 561TWh for the date. Bridging the 73TWh year-on-year deficit is equivalent to the bloc securing an additional 4.7mn t of LNG — or roughly 65 standard-sized cargoes. But securing supply to fill storage will be harder this year because the Middle East conflict has tightened the global LNG market considerably. Europe will be unable to import LNG from Qatar or the UAE — which made up about 7pc of its LNG supply in 2025 — while the strait of Hormuz remains closed. And European buyers may have to compete for Atlantic basin cargoes with Asian buyers, some of which are already scrambling to secure replacement cargoes for lost Mideast Gulf supply ahead of their peak cooling demand season. Given these challenges, the European Commission has encouraged member states to make use of the flexibility built into the EU storage regulation and aim to have 80pc of capacity filled between 1 October and 1 December instead of the headline 90pc target. The legislation also permits an additional 10-percentage point deviation under persistent unfavourable market conditions or technical constraints. Some countries, such as Austria and Latvia, are granted larger derogations, for instance because their storage capacity exceeds domestic consumption. EU member states already made use of these derogations and additional flexibility under the regulation last year. Stocks peaked at 949TWh on 13 October, equivalent to 83.2pc of capacity. If countries that targeted 90pc last year adjust their 2026 requirement to 80pc, and once existing derogations are factored in, the effective EU-wide target would drop to 68.5pc, compared with 71.2pc last year. But even in this case, the EU would need to inject 469TWh this summer, up from 425TWh last year — a difference equivalent to 39 LNG cargoes. And even then, national obligations, security of supply considerations and the level of national regulatory intervention may have a greater impact than compliance with the EU's storage law. Inverted market signals Unfavourable summer-winter price spreads have discouraged storage capacity bookings, further complicating the task of refilling storage sites. Differing levels of state intervention will mean uneven filling rates across the bloc this summer. Summer 2026 contracts at the Dutch, German, Italian and French hubs jumped above corresponding winter 2026-27 contracts at the start of March just after the Middle East war broke out. By the time the summer 2026 contract expired at the end of March, only the German summer price had slipped back to a discount to the front winter. Germany has the EU's largest working gas capacity at 245TWh — 22pc of the bloc's total. German sites ended the winter at only 21pc of capacity, the lowest for any year since 2018. Argus estimates that firms had booked roughly 63pc of German storage capacity for April 2026-March 2027 by the start of April. Near-curve prices will need to maintain a discount to the front-winter contract to spur further bookings and injections, if Germany is to reach its national fill target of 70pc. The German energy ministry has told Argus repeatedly that it will leave storage filling to the market, arguing that state intervention would pass on huge costs to consumers. Other EU countries have instead opted to offer incentives to ensure inventories are replenished. Italy, the EU's second-largest capacity holder with 203TWh, has announced an incentive mechanism aimed at offsetting the unfavourable market conditions, consisting of bonus payments to firms based on their end-of-October stocks. And the Netherlands — with a technical capacity of 144TWh — has strengthened its state backstop for this injection season. State-owned EBN is empowered to fill up to 80TWh, a much higher mandate than the 25TWh last summer. France's regulated storage system should also ensure sites are filled regardless of summer-winter spreads. Firms have contractual obligations to fill booked capacity, and all capacity has been booked thanks to reserve costs being set at zero for 2026-27 capacity, with storage operators compensated through transmission tariffs. France has 126TWh of technical storage capacity. Countries in central and eastern Europe may also be able to only partly rebuild gas stocks this summer. But a higher share of long-term pipeline deliveries and domestic supply within their supply mix could provide a more stable injection profile than in markets with heavier LNG exposure. Stocks in Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia were at a combined 102TWh on 1 April, 21.4TWh lower than a year earlier and the lowest for the day since 2022. This equated to 29pc of capacity, higher than the EU average ( see CEE stocks graph ) . By Hannah McMichael and Victoria Dovgal EU stocks 2026 vs 2025 vs 2022 TWh CEE stocks 2026 vs 2025 vs 2022 TWh EU natural gas inventories TWh Storage spreads at major EU hubs €/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Electrification, US shape Swiss chemical, pharma demand
Electrification, US shape Swiss chemical, pharma demand
London, 16 April (Argus) — Electrification is likely to boost electricity demand in Switzerland's chemical and pharmaceutical industry, but high power prices and US trade policy could accelerate offshoring, according to experts from chemical and pharmaceutical industry association Scienceindustries. Power demand from the chemical and pharmaceutical sector accounts for around 10pc of Switzerland's total industrial power demand and around 5pc of total Swiss demand, Sciencesindustries environment and sustainability head Anna Bozzi told Argus . Power demand is comparable between the two sub-sectors. Demand from the two sectors rose by almost 20pc over 2016-22, before falling by around 10pc in 2022-24, according to the latest data from Swiss energy office BFE. Rising electrification and increasing energy efficiency have "shaped" the sectors' demand over the past 10 years, Bozzi said. Power prices big issue for chemicals But there is an "acute" danger that high power prices will cause chemicals production to relocate abroad, in particular to the US and China, the association's deputy director and energy head, Michael Matthes, said. Power prices play a less decisive role in overall production costs for pharmaceuticals. Power prices in Switzerland have fallen significantly since the energy crisis of 2022, but industry is still feeling its impact, most notably in the increase in the country's power reserve tariff, Matthes said. This was introduced in 2024 to finance Switzerland's winter energy reserve and protect against power shortages. It equates to an additional 0.01 Swizz francs/kWh (1.3¢/kWh) in grid costs, or SFr3mn/yr (€3.25mn/yr) for a company with 300 GWh/yr of power consumption, Bozzi said. A successful power agreement with the EU could stabilise prices by improving market integration, increasing grid efficiency and opening up access to a broader range of grid reserve capacities, she said. The agreement was signed and submitted to parliament last month, but will likely go to a public referendum if passed. But geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are adding uncertainty to global energy markets, which "reinforces" existing challenges for the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, including "persistently elevated energy costs" and uncertainty surrounding long-term investment and location choices, Bozzi and Matthes said. Swiss spot prices averaged €95.95/MWh over 2023-25, but jumped to around €120/MWh following the start of the Iran war — the highest for the period since 2022. Prices for 2027 have risen by around 11.5pc since 27 February — the last session before the outbreak of the conflict — but remain around €12/MWh above 2028 prices. And 2028 prices are around €5/MWh above recent trades for 2029, according to the latest assessment. This backwardation in the forward years reflects expectations of growing renewable energy capacity and increased LNG supply availability in the coming years. The median final power price for businesses decreased over 2024-26, according to federal power regulator Elcom, and transmission system operator Swissgrid tariffs will fall on the year in 2027 , owing partially to a reduction in the power reserve tariff. But the tariff for solidarity-based costs — covering grid enhancements, among other things — will rise next year, and Swissgrid expects the power reserve tariff to increase in future years because of the country's new reserve power plants set to be commissioned over 2027-30. Peak shaving not on the cards, but storage possible Large-scale chemicals production cannot be shifted to nighttime or weekends, Matthes said. Sites tend to either run at full capacity or not at all, some for 48 weeks a year, and only smaller companies have processes where shifting production in time is possible. Halting production would destroy the micro-organisms and bioactive substances involved in biotechnological process, and any subsequent restart could take weeks and incur enormous costs, Bozzi explained. Nevertheless, storage solutions such as power-to-chemicals — synthetic methane or methanol, for example — could help increase system flexibility in the longer term by allowing electricity storage in chemical form, she said. Empty threats? Power prices are a structural "push factor" and play a key role in long-term location decisions. But threats of punitive export tariffs from the US add an "additional source of uncertainty", Matthes said. The US was the largest single destination of Scienceindustries member company exports last year, accounting for SFr36.7bn (€39.8bn) of exports. US tariff threats will not lead to an overnight shutdown of Swiss production, but will harm the investment climate and could accelerate relocation trends that would have happened anyway, Matthes said. Chemicals sector production, indexed to 2021, was largely flat over 2004-24, the latest data from federal statistical office BfS show. Pharmaceuticals sector production rose sharply over this time, peaking in the first quarter of 2025 ( see chart ). Some companies have announced long-term investment plans and are committed to remaining in Switzerland. The US labour market also faces constraints and finding the skilled personnel for production processes could be "challenging", Matthes said. Technological developments trump Trump Technological developments point to a "slight upward trend" in future industrial power demand, Bozzi and Matthes said. The "next steps" for the chemical and pharmaceutical industry involve the electrification of processes, Bozzi said. Switzerland's focus on new and highly energy-intensive carbon capture technologies will add further strain to power demand. In a worst-case scenario, production could move away from Switzerland, but this "disruptive" factor is something that cannot be assessed yet, Matthes said. Technological developments will produce a "larger, more dominant effect" that would lead to a slight increase in power demand, he said. By Bea Leverett Swiss spot vs forward curve, 2023-28 €/MWh Swiss chemical and pharmaceutical production and electricity consumption 2013-24, indexed to 2013 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Multi-fuel most sustainable future for bunkers: Panel
Multi-fuel most sustainable future for bunkers: Panel
Singapore, 16 April (Argus) — Ensuring availability of bunkering options for multiple fuels at key ports is the most viable approach to supporting an energy transition in the shipping industry and the establishment of green shipping corridors between key ports, said participants at the Argus Green Marine Fuels conference in Singapore. The US/Israel-Iran war and the subsequent disruptions to conventional bunker fuel supplies from the Middle East has shown that availability of a wider range of fuels will make shipowners less likely to be caught out by supply disruptions, especially for fossil fuels. The port of Rotterdam is preparing for a multi-fuel future like Singapore, said the port's program manager for sustainable transport Naomi van den Berg. "We see it has having a large part to play in moving towards a sustainable fuels future," she said. But infrastructure at ports must be available to support distribution of alternative fuels such as LNG, methanol and ammonia. Ports in Hong Kong are looking to mainland China for support in supplying alternative fuels, said Amy Chan, deputy secretary for transport and logistics for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government. Hong Kong is set to announce a partner for its own shipping green corridor later this year, Chan said. LNG remains by far the fuel of choice, based on order books for vessels . But most shipowners are still opting for dual use or considering triple-use engines to ensure they have the flexibility to refuel at ports that offer the best value fuel. The choice of LNG also means shipowners have the option to switch to bio-LNG. Availability of fuels and pricing remain key concerns, particularly in a challenging market, said Rohit Radhakrishnan, chair of the marine fuels committee in the Singapore Shipping Association. Investment in infrastructure is key to ensuring progress and while there are some existing facilities to support the transition to a multi-fuel future, there are still not sufficient infrastructure to fulfill the shipping industry's needs, said conference participants. By Siew Hua Seah Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran widens shipping threat beyond Hormuz
Iran widens shipping threat beyond Hormuz
Dubai, 15 April (Argus) — Iran has warned it could disrupt shipping across key regional waterways, including the Red Sea, in response to US restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports. It marks a broadening of Tehran's maritime threat beyond the strait of Hormuz, where vessel traffic has already slowed sharply since the conflict between the US and Iran started in late February. Ali Abdollahi, head of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Military Headquarters — the country's highest operational military command — said continued US actions targeting Iranian ports and tankers would "constitute a prelude to a violation of the ceasefire" between Washington and Tehran. He warned Iran would respond by preventing "any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea" if the US blockade persists. The US began a naval blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports on Monday. The US military said no vessels breached the restrictions in the first 24 hours. It said several ships had been instructed to turn around and return to Iranian ports. Vessels calling at or leaving non-Iranian ports are not subject to the measures. At least seven ships transited the strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours with AIS signals active, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic. Despite the escalation in rhetoric, both sides have signalled scope for renewed diplomacy. US president Donald Trump told ABC News that the conflict could end "very soon". Vice-president JD Vance, who led the US delegation in recent talks, said he remained positive about the trajectory of negotiations following discussions in Islamabad that ended without a breakthrough. The statements have raised expectations that US and Iranian officials could return to Pakistan, or another venue, for further talks. Washington has continued to portray regional instability as driven by Tehran and its allies. Speaking at the UN on 14 April, US representative Jennifer Locetta said Iran continues to enable destabilising activity across the region, including support for Yemen's Houthi movement. The US has accused the Houthis of launching repeated missile and drone attacks on shipping in and around the Red Sea and has called for tighter compliance with UN inspection mechanisms for vessels bound for Houthi-controlled ports. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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