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Viewpoint: French power in slump
Viewpoint: French power in slump
London, 17 December (Argus) — France enters 2026 with power prices in a slump, as stagnant demand meets strong nuclear availability and ever-increasing renewables output. Forward prices are well below spot delivery in recent years, with the Cal-26 contract assessed at €49.75/MWh on Tuesday, compared with spot delivery of about €60/MWh in 2024 and 2025. Lower gas prices explain some of the low forward prices, as does increased renewables capacity, but French hydro reserves are well below previous years, and EdF expects to produce less nuclear power year on year because of further planned long maintenance shutdowns. If low spot delivery confirms that these forward prices were correct as to how fundamentals would play out, it could limit any potential for upside risk. And the course of any potential demand recovery over the next few years will determine whether the contango shape of the French forward years is justified by fundamentals. The French yearly contracts are unusual with Europe being in contango, rising out to the end of the decade, compared with most other countries which are in backwardation. Fundamentals arguments put forward to explain this include expectations of increased interconnection to more expensive markets, or an uptick in demand, especially from industry and data centres. But demand has remained stubbornly flat over recent years. Industrial, data centre and hydrogen projects with a total demand of 30GW have grid capacity reserved for them. If all of these projects came to light and used their full capacity, demand would leap by 180TWh by 2030, or about 40pc. Not all of these projects will be built, and those that are will not use their full capacity all the time. Grid operator RTE's high estimate is for 60pc of projects to be completed, which will then use only 20-60pc of their grid capacity. But even if only some of them are built, this could push demand growth to 1-3pc/yr. RTE's low estimate for the incremental demand from these projects by 2030, as well as additional electric vehicles, comes to 2.7GW, while its high estimate is for 6.3GW of incremental demand. A rapid increase in demand could outpace supply gains from the several GW/yr of solar capacity likely to come on line in the coming years, mechanically tightening France's balance, if it is met and there is not a fall in demand from other sectors. France may be reaching a crunch point on renewables. The ambition of governments of recent years to advance on renewables and nuclear has hit the buffers, as the lack of any demand growth removes justification for increasing capacity. Low market prices are an indication that France does not particularly need any extra renewables capacity in the short term. Capture rates for solar have fallen year on year, while lower market prices mean the bill for public subsidy for renewables grows ever higher. Some increases are locked in over the next few years, but appetite may be lacking to continue growth beyond that. And political obstacles could make a low-renewables strategy easier. Right-wing parties are firmly opposed to renewables, and the government relies on their tacit support to remain in office. The government intends to publish the PPE3 10-year energy strategy by the end of the year, which in this draft includes cuts to renewables targets, it has said. The other big dossier of French energy is the new nuclear programme. EdF has already started preparatory works to build two 1.6GW reactors at Penly, and plans to build a further four, with eight more on the drawing board. But the experience of the Flamanville 3 reactor — entering service more than a decade late and many billions over budget — could make any government hesitate before offering EdF funding for more reactors. This is all the more true if prices remain low in the coming years, which would cut EdF's ability to fund large investments and require more government support. The mooted €100/MWh price point of the new nuclear, more than twice the current market price, is a further impediment. And the programme is not expected to come into service until the late 2030s at the earliest, meaning a government which holds fire can spare itself large costs without incurring any power shortage during its term in office. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU to amend CBAM rules for power
EU to amend CBAM rules for power
London, 16 December (Argus) — The European Commission will amend the rules set out for the application of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for power imports to the bloc, providing a pathway to declaring actual emissions values for electricity, according to leaked documents seen by Argus on Tuesday. The EU will amend the existing guidance to CBAM regulation based on stakeholder feedback that rules for electricity are overly rigid, and that the framework does not acknowledge progress made by non-EU electricity producers in decarbonising their generation mixes, limiting incentives for third-country producers to reduce emissions. The updates were based on a consultation with market participants held from 1 July-26 August. This regulation means that actual emissions associated with the production of electricity can be declared. Serbia recently announced plans to implement CO2 measurement, reporting and verification standards, ahead of the country's first emissions and carbon tax law. This appears to provide a pathway for output from renewable sources to be exempt from CBAM. Previously, electricity was treated separately from other physical commodities under the legislation, where carbon quantity would have been based on average country-wide emissions rather than on individual plant emissions. The document also addresses physical and indirect power purchase agreements (PPA), and clarifies that CBAM will only be applied to explicit capacity allocation, removing the previous language that required the absence of network congestion in order for CBAM exemption to apply for renewables output sold under a PPA. If actual emissions data are not available, an "average grid emission factor" for exporting countries will be used in order to reflect decarbonisation in the country of origin, which would include countries' current generation mix and be lower than the previous default emissions value, which used an average of IEA emissions over the past five years. Definition of market coupling The document also lays out a novel definition of market coupling, which could provide a pathway to CBAM exemption. The EU proposes that for the purpose of integration of a third country's electricity market with the EU a "memorandum of understanding between the Commission and the third countries that have fully transposed the relevant electricity market acquis" can be agreed, and that this memorandum would then set the "timeline for the application of the exemption foreseen". Market coupling would then be achieved through legislative means, rather than as defined by market coupling through EU power market regulatory body Acer, which requires an 18-month window for technical preparation once a coupling integration plan is approved. Serbia is the frontrunner for market coupling, and has previously said that it can couple with the EU by 2027 at the earliest, which would miss the 1 January 2026 deadline for CBAM exemption, as once its application has been approved it is still subject to the 18-month waiting period. This could indicate that countries with EU regulatory body the Energy Community could receive exemption from CBAM until 2030, as 2022's energy integration package provided a pathway for exemption from CBAM for four years, provided countries coupled with the EU power market. By Annemarie Pettinato Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s energy demand falls on economic slowdown
Japan’s energy demand falls on economic slowdown
Osaka, 12 December (Argus) — Japan's energy consumption in the April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year fell again from a year earlier, pressured by slower industry activity. The country's 2024-25 final energy use totalled 292mn kiloliters, or 1.84bn bl of oil equivalent (boe), down by 1.7pc from a year earlier, according to preliminary data released on 12 December by the trade and industry ministry Meti. This marks the third consecutive annual decline. Coal use in final energy consumption fell by 3.7pc from a year earlier to 172mn boe in 2024-25, while oil demand declined by 3.7pc to 841mn boe. This came as energy consumption in the manufacturing and transportation sectors declined by 3.2pc to 766mn boe, and by 1.5pc to 445mn boe respectively. But demand for natural gas and city gas rose by 1.5pc from a year earlier to 167mn boe. Power demand also edged up by 1pc to 517mn boe. Coal-fired power generation edged up by 0.9pc to 283.4TWh during the period, while oil- and gas-fired power dropped by 2.7pc to 71TWh and by 2.4pc to 315.7TWh. Zero-emission power supplies, including renewables and nuclear power, rose by 3.9pc to 322.1TWh. Japan's energy-derived CO2 emissions fell by 1.4pc from a year earlier to 908mn t in 2024-25, supported by the increased use of renewable and nuclear power supplies. The 2024-25 emissions represented a 26pc fall compared with the country's 2013-14 baseline, or the lowest level since 1990-91. The lower energy consumption, as well as increased use of domestic renewable and nuclear energy, helped lift Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate to 16.4pc in 2024-25, up by 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, based on International Energy Agency methodology. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
S Korea sets up task forces for renewable bottlenecks
S Korea sets up task forces for renewable bottlenecks
London, 11 December (Argus) — South Korea has launched a climate and energy task force across eight regional environment agencies, as well as a climate and energy field response team, its climate and energy ministry Mcee announced today. The move aligns with its government's coal phase-out target, aiming to ease bottlenecks in its renewable energy transition while expanding renewable capacity across regions. The task force will carry out work on site, mediating local disputes and identifying region-specific projects, while the field response team will drive regulatory changes based on local feedback and support renewable project development through monthly review meetings. In addition, Mcee, South Jeolla province, Kepco and the Korea Energy Agency signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to accelerate the country's shift to renewables. The four organisations will work together to promote community participation, support timely grid development and run local dispute resolution platforms. "Renewable expansion can advance only with community participation. The regional environment agencies will work closely with local communities to help drive the country's climate and energy transition." Mcee minister Kim Sung-hwan said at the event. Meanwhile, South Korea is aiming to expand its offshore wind capacity from the current 350MW levels to 10.5GW by 2030 and 25GW by 2035, Kim announced yesterday. The South Korean government has pursued offshore wind development for several years, but many projects have been delayed because of limited infrastructure, permit issues and local opposition. Market participants are paying close attention to its newly-launched teams set up to address these issues on the ground. Separately, the government last week announced plans to increase installed onshore wind capacity from about the current level of around 2GW to 12GW by 2035. Coal supplied 28pc of the country's power generation in January-September, while wind — including both onshore and offshore capacity — contributed just 0.6pc over the same period, according to Argus data. By Dayu Park Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.