Coal
Overview
Global thermal coal prices surged to record levels in 2022, experiencing unprecedented volatility. Prices have since come off as risks associated with Europe’s supply recede. At a global level, coal demand remains robust with security of supply shifting higher up the agenda of many governments in light of geopolitical upheaval.
In Europe, sanctions have shifted the region’s coal import mix away from Russia and towards other suppliers. The pace of coal plant phase-outs in the region is set to increase in the years ahead, with the role of coal in the electricity mix shifting further towards peak-load usage, making forward planning more challenging.
In Asia-Pacific, thermal coal remains a pillar of the power and industrial sectors. Global coal trade flows and price spreads are shifting, with flows from key suppliers Russia, Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia, and the US penetrating new markets, in response to price dynamics and trade barriers.
Keeping on top of prices and flows, and how coal markets intersect with other energy and commodity benchmarks, will be critical in the coming years.
Latest coal news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global coal industry.
India's Tata, Switzerland's Mercuria form trading JV
India's Tata, Switzerland's Mercuria form trading JV
Singapore, 9 February (Argus) — Indian commodities trader Tata International has a formed a joint venture with Swiss trading firm Mercuria to collaborate on supply chain and trading solutions, Mercuria said on 6 February. The joint venture, which has not been named, seeks to expand its trading business and "enable trade of a diversified basket of commodities" in international markets including energy, metals, agricultural products, oil and gas, and environmental products. Tata International mainly trades and procures commodities including metals, minerals like coal and sponge iron, and agriculture such as grains and oil seeds, and serves a wide range of downstream users in steel and manufacturing industries. Its partnership with Mercuria can help the firm gain access to supply chains and trading resources in commodities including oil and gas, renewable energy and metals. Mercuria also seeks to expand its international market reach through the venture which will be based in India. The joint venture will begin operations pending regulatory approvals. It will also form a "compliant trading platform", based on the companies' existing resources and risk management tools. Other international trading firms have also been looking to form partnerships this year. This includes global metals firms Rio Tinto and Glencore's failed merger last week. By Nadhir Mokhtar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Coal's share in global generation mix to slip: IEA
Coal's share in global generation mix to slip: IEA
Singapore, 9 February (Argus) — Global power demand is set to grow by more than 3 pc/yr on average over the rest of this decade, but coal's share of the generation mix is likely to be eroded by gains in nuclear, renewables and natural gas, said the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Electricity 2026 report. Global power demand growth continues to rise rapidly, supported by the increasing electrification of industry, transportation and the buildings sectors, the report released on 6 February said. Growing consumption is also coming from some of the most dynamic segments of global economies, such as AI, data centres and evolving technological innovations, it added. The share of renewables and nuclear in the world's power mix rising to 50pc by the end of this decade, with natural gas also growing, according to IEA forecasts. "Global electricity generation from renewables — boosted by record deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) — is now in the process of overtaking generation from coal, after virtually drawing level with it in 2025." Coal accounted for around 33pc of the global energy mix in 2025. Emerging economies continue to be the main pillar of demand growth, accounting for nearly 80pc of additional electricity consumption through 2030, the report said. India and southeast Asia are increasingly set to drive rising energy demand over the coming decade, but China is forecast to remain the single largest contributor to global electricity demand growth through 2030, accounting for close to 50pc of the increase. "The momentum behind low-emissions sources of generation continues to 2030, by which time renewables and nuclear are together set to generate 50pc of global electricity, up from 42pc today," the report said. Renewable output will grow by about 1,000TWh annually through 2030, with solar PV alone accounting for over 600 TWh, the IEA forecasts. This means that renewable generation is forecast to rise at a rate of 8 pc/yr in percentage terms. Globally, coal-fired generation remained broadly flat in 2025, but regional trends diverged in ways not seen in previous years, the IEA said. Coal use declined in India and China due to slower electricity demand growth and the rapid expansion of renewable, the report said. But coal use increased in the US given higher natural gas prices compared with 2024 and a slowdown in the retirement of coal plants, supported by federal policy, which promoted the power sector to raise coal use, it added. In the EU, record solar generation was partially offset by weak hydropower and wind output, limiting the overall decline in coal use. A forecast decline in coal's share of the global energy mix in the coming years is in line with projections made in the IEA's Coal 2025 report, released in December 2025. Coal demand likely reached a plateau in 2025 , that report previously said. But global coal demand could rise above the forecasts, should China post faster-than-expected growth in electricity consumption, slower integration of renewables or strong investment in coal gasification, the IEA previously said. China, India import less coal in 2025 China's thermal coal imports fell for the first time in three years in 2025 on weak demand and ample availability of domestic coal. China, the world's largest thermal coal importer, received 356.6mn t in 2025, down by 12pc on the year, according to customs data released last month. But China's new and reactivated coal power project proposals and coal power capacity additions hit record highs in 2025 despite a decline in coal power generation, according to a report published by independent research organisation the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and non-governmental organisation Global Energy Monitor (GEM) in February 2026. New and reactivated Chinese coal power project proposals totalled 161GW in 2025, hitting a record high. The country started up a total of 78GW of coal power capacity in 2025, marking the highest level in a decade. Meanwhile, Indian imports of thermal coal declined for the second straight year in 2025 , given that weak demand from power utilities and higher domestic coal output continued to weigh on buying activity. India, which is the world's second-largest thermal coal importer, received 160.15mn t of thermal coal in 2025, down by 3pc, or 5.2mn t, from a year earlier, according to data released by shipbroker Interocean last month. In its latest report, the IEA said that "The Age of Electricity" requires a fast and efficient expansion of grids and system flexibility to securely and cost-effectively integrate a changing mix of generation, demand and storage. Newer sources of demand, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps and highly concentrated loads, such as data centres, are expected to grow rapidly. At the same time, more than 2,500 GW worth of projects, encompassing renewables, storage and projects with large loads, remain stalled in grid connection queues worldwide due to a lag in funding, the IEA said. By Andrew Jones Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia yet to finalise 2026 coal output plans: Gov
Indonesia yet to finalise 2026 coal output plans: Gov
Singapore, 6 February (Argus) — Indonesia's energy ministry (ESDM) said today that it is still working to determine coal producers' 2026 Work Plan and Budgets (RKABs) and that it has not yet finalised plans to reduce output this year. Uncertainty surrounding this year's RKABs is causing concerns over supply availability. This, along with weather-related delays to mining operations and the decision by a major Sumatra-based producer to declare force majeure on shipments, has contributed to a rise in coal prices in recent weeks. Several Indonesian coal mining companies have said that details of their 2026 volumes and the cuts to RKABs that are being circulated in the market are still visible on the ESDM monitoring system against the respective company names, despite them not having received formal notices. The ESDM today moved to debunk recent market talk of significant output cuts for some companies, which it says are not correct, and said that it is still finalising actual volumes. The ministry is taking into consideration non-tax state revenue collections from coal producers in determining their respective output quotas for this year, an ESDM official told Argus . The ESDM last year reverted to granting annual RKAB approvals, compared with three-year approvals previously, to give it more control over coal production. It called for coal mining companies to submit their proposals before November 2025, the official said. But late submissions and delays in processing have prompted the ESDM to allow mining companies to use their previously approved three-year RKABs as the basis for coal mining operations during first quarter of this year, while the new RKABs are still being processed, the official added. Jakarta said in early January that it is looking to cut Indonesia's coal output to 600mn t in 2026 in an attempt to prop up coal prices, following several years of price declines caused by high supply and weaker demand in the international market. Indonesian coal output has increased for several straight years. Production in 2025 reached 790mn t, surpassing a 740mn t target for the year, the ESDM official said. By Antonio delos Reyes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia coal quota cut indications cause uncertainty
Indonesia coal quota cut indications cause uncertainty
Delhi, 3 February (Argus) — Indonesia's decision to indicate lower production quotas for coal miners this year is injecting fresh uncertainty into the seaborne thermal coal market, with producers and traders warning of operational disruption and tighter spot liquidity. A number of coal producers have received indications of their 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) approvals, signalling sharp cuts to output. The step is part of Jakarta's broader plans to curb output and exports in a bid to tighten seaborne supply and support prices at a time of prolonged oversupply. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA), which represents producers accounting for about two-thirds of national output, has urged the country's energy ministry to review the scale of the reductions. In a 31 January letter , the ICMA said reported cuts of 40–70pc could prevent producers from meeting export and domestic contractual commitments, potentially leading to claims, penalties or force majeure declarations. The association also warned of knock-on effects for contractors, transporters and lenders, citing risks to loan servicing and economic stability. Jakarta's move was the main talking point at Coaltrans India 2026, a key industry gathering in Delhi. Participants at the event said there was confusion over whether the quota figures currently visible to mining companies on a government website are final. One producer said it has not received formal written notification and that numbers circulating in the market may not be definitive. Another mining firm said its quota is reflected on a government portal, but it may not be final. But the confusion has prompted coal producers to hold back their spot offers, which could lead to a delay in upcoming shipments. Indonesian producers have not confirmed any laycans so far this week. Trading firm Equentia Natural Resources co-founder and chief executive Rajiv Ramnarayan said at the conference that Indonesian producers face acute planning challenges because of the purported cut and any potential revision to the order later this year during typical annual RKAB review might not help the industry. "It's not that easy to just turn the tap on and off," he said, noting that fleet deployment, mine sequencing, contractor mobilisation and shipping programmes are structured around approved volumes. He added that lower quotas reduce spot cargo availability, hurting coal traders as producers prioritise long-term contracts. Some participants at the event questioned the broader policy rationale. Coal remains a key part of Indonesia's resource base and is central to the country's overall revenue, with abundant reserves expected to support production for at least the next two decades, a coal trader said. A sharp structural reduction in output could affect the general premise of leveraging the reserves for economic benefit, employment and overall development, he added. Some industry executives warned that Jakarta's strategy could backfire and prompt a review. Lower output would require a sharp and sustained rise in prices to maintain royalty receipts and allow companies to maintain revenue. But demand from China and India — Indonesia's two largest buyers — has been subdued, with both countries increasing domestic coal output and holding ample inventories. There could be some incremental supplies from other origins to partly bridge the gap emanating from Indonesia's production cut. Indonesian prices might not increase sufficiently to offset reduced volumes. So producers and the government could face declining revenues — a potential lose-lose outcome, a Singapore-based coal trader said. Indonesia has yet to formally announce this year's RKAB and comment on the indicative quota cuts. It approved an RKAB of 917.16mn t for 2025, while actual output reached about 790mn t. Jakarta has indicated it may reduce 2026 production to about 600mn t to rebalance the market to support prices. The Argus -assessed price of Indonesian GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal sold on Supramax vessels averaged $43.55/t fob Kalimantan in July-December, down by 7pc compared with the first half of last year. The lack of clarity over this year's production quotas and indicative cuts to RKAB has contributed to a rise in Indonesian coal prices recently. The GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal market for Supramaxes was last marked at $47.17/t fob Kalimantan on 30 January, up from $44.91/t at the start of the year. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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