Coal
Overview
Global thermal coal prices surged to record levels in 2022, experiencing unprecedented volatility. Prices have since come off as risks associated with Europe’s supply recede. At a global level, coal demand remains robust with security of supply shifting higher up the agenda of many governments in light of geopolitical upheaval.
In Europe, sanctions have shifted the region’s coal import mix away from Russia and towards other suppliers. The pace of coal plant phase-outs in the region is set to increase in the years ahead, with the role of coal in the electricity mix shifting further towards peak-load usage, making forward planning more challenging.
In Asia-Pacific, thermal coal remains a pillar of the power and industrial sectors. Global coal trade flows and price spreads are shifting, with flows from key suppliers Russia, Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia, and the US penetrating new markets, in response to price dynamics and trade barriers.
Keeping on top of prices and flows, and how coal markets intersect with other energy and commodity benchmarks, will be critical in the coming years.
Latest coal news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global coal industry.
Indonesian coal output, exports decline in 2025
Indonesian coal output, exports decline in 2025
Singapore, 8 January (Argus) — Indonesia's coal production and exports declined for the first time in five years in 2025 on weak demand from key markets China and India. The world's largest coal exporter produced 790mn t of coal last year, out of which about 514mn t was exported, according to latest government data compiled by Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA). The production volume was down 5.5pc from a year earlier, while exports fell by 7.9pc on the year. But the 2025 output exceeded Indonesia's target of about 740mn t. This marks the first decline in production and exports since 2020, when Covid-19 pandemic affected demand as well as the coal supply chain. The drop comes as demand from two of the largest coal importing nations, China and India, decreased in 2025 on an increase in domestic coal availability and fall in coal consumption, indicating a broad weakness in the economy and decline of coal-fired generation in the power mix. Indonesian suppliers recalibrated output in response to weak demand and lower prices. Argus assessed the widely traded GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal for Supramax vessels at $44.99/t fob Kalimantan on 24 December 2025, down by 71pc from its all-time high of $154.21/t on 21 October 2021. Prices hit a more than four-year lows of $39.40/t in June 2025 and have since hovered in a narrow range that some producers said barely covers costs. Coal supply may remain under pressure because Jakarta is weighing production cuts and policy changes including the introduction of an export duty on coal, moves that could fuel fresh uncertainty in the global seaborne market . The country is considering setting coal production target under 700mn t for 2026, although energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on 8 January that the final figure would be firmed up after assessing the domestic coal requirements. Indonesian miners need to adhere to regulations to sell at least a quarter of their production locally under the so-called domestic market obligation (DMO). DMO sales reached 254mn t in 2025, while stocks at the end of the year were at 22mn t, according to the government data compiled by ICMA. The government will prioritise coal mining quotas for DMO before it can determine production levels for exports, Lahadalia said. The Indonesian government also took other measures in 2025 to tighten supply because the ongoing surplus has kept prices under pressure, it said. Some of these steps include withholding export sales proceeds in onshore bank accounts, tweaking domestic coal reference prices — the HBA — rolling out mandatory biofuel blending norms, banning coal hauling in parts of South Sumatra, imposing export tax on coal and reverting to annual RKAB appraisals with increased compliance on mine reclamation. This comes as the seaborne market appears to be well-supplied, with domestic supply potentially capping the import outlook of China and India, on top of broad weakness in the economy and changing generation patterns. Economic growth in China — the world's biggest coal importer — is expected to slow to 4.4pc in 2026 from an estimated 4.9pc in 2025, according to World Bank projections. China is also gradually increasing the share of renewable energy in its power generation mix, putting further pressure on overall coal demand. Similarly, coal burn in India has largely remained lacklustre on the back of an extended monsoon spell in 2025 and increase in renewable power generation. The sharp depreciation of the Indian rupee in 2025 has also weighed on imports. By Saurabh Chaturvedi and Nadhir Mokhtar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Tighter supply may lift PRB coal prices
Viewpoint: Tighter supply may lift PRB coal prices
New York, 6 January (Argus) — Powder River Basin (PRB) coal prices could rise further in 2026 as producers face constraints on boosting output and demand holds steady. The year is starting with some US coal-fired units running longer than anticipated — some by utility choice, others under Department of Energy (DOE) emergency orders aimed at preserving grid reliability. A number of these plants consume PRB coal. TransAlta's Centralia plant in Washington consumed 1.83mn short tons (st) (1.66mn metric tonnes) of PRB coal in January-October 2025, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show. Consumers Energy's JH Campbell plant in Michigan used 3.7mn st over the same period, while Xcel Energy's Comanche unit 2 consumed 877,391st. All three facilities were scheduled to be retired in 2025, but will remain in operation through at least early 2026. However, the response from coal producers to any improvement in demand could be uneven, which could in turn constrict competition and boost prices. The EIA projected in December that western US coal production would decrease to 274mn st in 2026 from an estimated 284mn st in 2025. More than 80pc of western US coal output comes from the PRB. PRB coal production rose in most of 2025 after two years of declines, but annual output may still have been below 2023 levels. EIA estimated mines in Montana and Wyoming, which primarily yield PRB coal, produced 228.2mn st from 1 January through 27 December 2025, up by 5.9pc from the same period in 2024. In comparison, mines in those states produced 266.3mn st in all of 2023. While larger producers in the basin appear optimistic about market conditions for this year, the two biggest PRB producers — Peabody Energy and Core Natural Resources — said in October they had nearly all of their expected 2026 production already under contract to sell. "Are we confident about running at max capacity for the next couple of years?" asked Malcolm Roberts, Peabody's chief commercial officer, on 30 October. "The answer is definitely yes in the PRB." However, "adding on capacity is not something you do for one year; it is going to need customer commitments, and then we'll be looking for the price signals," Peabody chief executive officer Jim Grech said. "We'll see what the market does in terms of price signals to bring those additional tons on. I think that's the best way to look at it." Producers are uncertain that 2025's uptick in coal-fired generation and coal demand as well as delays in power plant retirements will continue beyond the next few years. Some market participants expect smaller producers with higher-cost operations to eventually be forced out of business as major banks continue to pull back on lending to coal mining companies. In the near term, PRB coal producers are diversifying their client portfolios, which may leave some larger utilities unable to secure all the coal they have requested. This supply tightness has already lifted prices for additional tons sought for prompt quarter deliveries. PRB 8,800 Btu/lb coal prompt quarter shipments were assessed at $14.95/st in the week ended 2 January, well above the $13.10/st and $13.95/st in the same weeks of 2025 and 2024, respectively. Additionally, some sellers are adding extra charges — or ‘adders' — to contracts for coal shipments that might be postponed from 2026 to 2027. PRB mine employment and operating hours continued on a downward trend for most of 2025. The basin's mines employed an average 4,226 people in the first nine months of the year, according to the US Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), the fewest employees since January-September 2004. The number of hours each miner worked in January-September 2025 was the lowest since the first nine months of 2005. Average employment at PRB mines in January-September decreased by 6.9pc from the same nine months of 2024, with miners' hours down by 3.7pc in the same period, MSHA data show. The declines in employment and hours worked took place even as coal-fired generation in PRB-consuming regions of the US such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) topped year-earlier levels. EIA projected in December that coal power in MISO, ERCOT and the Southwest Power Pool would slip in 2026. Some of its forecast likely was based on power plant retirements, including the closures of some facilities that have since been postponed or are likely to be postponed. For example, the agency's generator inventory data for November had unit 2 of Xcel Energy's Comanche coal plant in Colorado retiring by the end of 2025, but Colorado regulators in December approved a plan to keep the Comanche unit 2 open for another year. Most US generators that have spoken with Argus anticipate coal burn in 2026 will remain largely in line with 2025 levels, while some project a slight uptick. Even utilities considering coal unit retirements are negotiating additional tons, asking PRB producers to accommodate incremental needs if their units are required to run longer. Rising demand pushed PRB mine productivity for January-September 2025 to a three-year high of 25.9 st/hour, Argus calculations of MSHA data show. More recent information from the US Labor Department and EIA suggest employment and production may have lagged behind year-earlier levels in the final months of 2025. That further sets the PRB up for tight supply in 2026. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Coal barging halted on Indonesia's Lalan river
Coal barging halted on Indonesia's Lalan river
Singapore, 6 January (Argus) — Coal barging on the Lalan river in south Sumatra, Indonesia has been temporarily halted since 1 January. A coal barge collided with the Karang Agung bridge in the Lalan sub-district of the Musi Banyuasin region in August 2024, leading to debris obstructions, although coal barging had continued to take place after the incident. Vessels navigating the Lalan river have now been requested not to pass under the bridge — also known as the P.6 Lalan bridge — according to a local government announcement issued on 31 December. The closure came into force on 1 January. It is not clear when coal barges will be able to resume navigating the river. The halt to barging on the Lalan river is the latest in a series of transport infrastructure issues to impact coal logistics in Sumatra. The province issued a regulation to ban coal trucks from public roads in August 2025, with the embargo taking effect on 1 January 2026. Coal mining companies were directed to use either private coal hauling roads or river barges to transport their coal from their mines to seaports. The number of dedicated coal hauling roads in the region is inadequate to serve the transportation needs of the coal mining industry in the province, the Indonesian Coal Mining Association said last month. There are efforts to build coal roads but these are significant endeavours that will take time to complete, even if coal companies have the financial capacity to do so, it added. A number of coal producers in the region have reduced production as a result of the disruptions to barging and the road hauling ban although it is difficult to determine exact volumes, said a Singapore-based trader. Supply out of the affected region is likely to be heavily impacted and very few January-loading cargoes are available, another trader said. But delays to producers' receiving approvals for their work plans and budgets (RKABs) and a lack of clarity surrounding Indonesia's plans to introduce a coal export tax are also deterring producers from offering cargoes, the trader added. The ESDM said in 2025 that it was revising the validity period for RKABs back to one year from three years previously, which it said will help the government to better control the production and sales of minerals and coal. The RKAB is a document submitted by Indonesian mining companies outlining their production targets for the year. It is subject to approval by the ESDM, but some producers have faced delays in obtaining 2026 quotas. Jakarta has also previously announced plans to introduce a 1-5pc tax on coal exports from 1 January 2026, although this has been delayed . Indonesia is the world's largest thermal coal exporter and south Sumatra is one of the major coal producing regions in the country, accounting for almost 14pc of total output. Indonesia is considering setting a coal production target under 700mn t for 2026, down from its near 740mn t target for 2025, due to expectations of weaker demand from key markets China and India. By Andrew Jones Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico factory contraction extends into Dec
Mexico factory contraction extends into Dec
Mexico City, 5 January (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted for a 21st consecutive month in December, though at a slower pace, according to the Mexican finance executives association IMEF purchasing managers' survey. Remaining below the 50-point expansion threshold, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose last month to 46.2 from a revised 45.8 in November, reflecting a slowing contraction on the month though it was still deeper in contraction than the 47.0 recorded for the PMI in October. IMEF said the "marginal improvement … failed to translate into a reversal of the cycle, reflecting a lack of solid fundamentals for a sustained recovery." Within the manufacturing PMI, sub-indexes for new orders and production fell in December from November,with new orders down by 0.6 points to 43.9 and production falling 0.2 points to 44.6, both in their 21st month of contraction. In contraction just as long, the inventories sub-index rose 2.3 points to 45.8 in December. Victor Herrera, director of economic studies at IMEF, told Argus this is due to stockpiling of imported Asian goods "in anticipation of new Mexican tariffs starting 1 January on imports from that region." And while employment edged 0.8 points higher to 44.9 in December, this extended its contraction to 23 consecutive months. IMEF's non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services, resumed contraction after two months in expansion territory, declining 0.8 points to 49.5. IMEF said the "December data reveal a cooling in non-manufacturing sector activity, which, after briefly exceeding the expansion threshold, is once again showing signs of operational fragility and loss of momentum." Within the non-manufacturing PMI, new orders fell 2.3 points to 48.9, while production slipped further into contraction, falling by 0.7 points to 48.7 in December. Employment declined 1.8 points, marking an 18th consecutive month of contraction. "Overall, the results [with both PMIs] point to an economy that is closing the year without clear momentum, in a context of structural fragility in both industry and services," said IMEF. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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