BTC Blend crude exports steady in June
Exports of Azeri light sweet BTC Blend crude are scheduled at 545,000 b/d in June, unchanged from this month's plan, according to a loading programme issued today. It is just below Azerbaijan's 554,000 b/d production quota under the first phase of the new Opec+ output restraint agreement.
The June export schedule shows state-owned Socar — the primary seller of BTC Blend — loading just 400,000 b/d, down by 11pc from the May programme. BP — which operates the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) group of fields — will load 65,000 b/d in June, after loading no cargoes in May.
Hungarian integrated oil firm Mol makes its first appearance in a BTC Blend export programme, having completed a deal to buy Chevron's 9.6pc stake in ACG for $1.6bn last month. It is scheduled to load one 600,000 bl BTC Blend cargo towards the end of June.
Turkey's TPAO and Japan's Inpex will load one 600,000 bl cargo each next month, unchanged from the May schedule. ExxonMobil, which was absent from the May programme, will also load a 600,000 bl cargo in June, while Norway's state-controlled Equinor will load no volumes.
Azeri crude values have rallied as the May trade-cycle draws to a close. Earlier this week, Socar awarded a mini-tender offering a 650,000 bl cargo for loading in the second half of May at a premium of around $2.70-2.80/bl to the North Sea Dated benchmark. That was followed by Equinor offloading a 600,000 bl parcel for 28-30 May loading close to an asking price of $2.90/bl above the benchmark. Socar has since been heard offering remaining May supplies at above $3/bl premiums to Dated, on a delivered Italy basis.
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IEA downgrades 2024 oil demand growth
IEA downgrades 2024 oil demand growth
London, 15 May (Argus) — The IEA now sees oil demand growth in 2025 outpacing this year, after it again downgraded its forecast for 2024 — mostly because of lower than anticipated first-quarter demand in Europe. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the Paris-based agency lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 140,000 b/d to 1.06mn b/d, citing weak gasoil consumption. This would leave total oil demand in 2024 at 103.16mn b/d. "Poor industrial activity and another mild winter have sapped gasoil consumption this year, particularly in Europe where a declining share of diesel cars in the fleet were already undercutting consumption," the IEA said. The agency again lowered its 2024 forecast for Chinese oil demand growth, this time by 30,000 b/d to 510,000 b/d. It sees China's growth slowing to 360,000 b/d in 2025, but the country will remain the largest single contributor to global growth. The IEA also highlighted a rise in global oil inventories, which increased for a second consecutive month in March — by 36.4mn bl. It said preliminary data show further stock builds in April as "onshore oil inventories skyrocketed after oil on water was discharged." This after onshore stocks fell in March to the lowest since at least 2016, and OECD inventories to a 20-year low. The latest estimates mean the IEA now sees oil demand growth coming in higher in 2025 at 1.18mn b/d, up by 30,000 b/d from last month's estimate. This contrast sharply with Opec , which continues to see much higher growth this year at 2.25mn b/d and next year at 1.85mn b/d. On global oil supply, the IEA lowered its 2024 growth estimate by 160,000 b/d to 580,000 b/d citing maintenance in Canada, outages in Brazil and logistical constraints in the US. It noted a 150,000 b/d fall in Russian output in April, related to a new Opec+ production cut. It forecasts non-Opec+ growth to rise by 1.4mn b/d this year, and an 840,000 b/d fall from Opec+ because of production cuts. The agency projects global gains next year at 1.8mn b/d, with supply hitting a record 104.5mn b/d. The US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil continue to dominate global supply gains with a combined forecast 1.1mn b/d of additions this year and next. The IEA's latest forecasts imply a tighter market in 2024 than it previously anticipated. Its balances now show a global oil supply deficit of 460,000 b/d this year, compared with 270,000 b/d in last month's report. The projections assume Opec+ voluntary cuts remain in place until the of the year, although the group has yet to decide its output policy for the second half of the year. It may do so at a ministerial meeting scheduled for 1 June in Vienna. The IEA's latest balances put the call on Opec+ crude at around 42mn b/d in the second half of this year — 700,000 b/d above the group's April output. A recent slide in oil prices could keep pressure on the alliance to keep the cuts in place for longer. The IEA put the fall in oil prices down to concerns over the health of the global economy and dissipating fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Alberta wildfire forces oil sands communities to flee
Alberta wildfire forces oil sands communities to flee
Calgary, 14 May (Argus) — A state of local emergency is unfolding near a major city in Alberta's oil sands region as an out-of-control wildfire grows in size, potentially putting various communities in its path. The wildfire to the southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta, has grown to about 10,000 hectares (25,000 acres) after more than tripling in recent days, prompting officials to issue an evacuation order to residential communities on the southern part of the city on Tuesday. The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo has told residents in Beacon Hill, Abasand, Prairie Creek and Grayling Terrace to evacuate while the rest of Fort McMurray and neighbouring communities remain on an evacuation notice. "These neighbourhoods directly interface with where the fire could potentially spread. Regional Emergency Services will better be able to defend these neighbourhoods from wildfire if they are uninhabited and clear," said the municipality. Alberta's largest northeast city has a population of about 75,000 with many employed by oil sands operators in the region which pump out a combined 2mn b/d of crude. This comes in the form of both synthetic crude and diluted bitumen, representing roughly half of Alberta's output. No evacuation orders have been made for oil sands projects, so far, with most being about 40 kilometres (25 miles) or more north of Fort McMurray. Some oil sands projects have already been winding down for seasonal maintenance. There are about 50 active fires in the province. One other, near Grande Prairie in the northwest, is also out of control. About 400,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) were shut in a year ago in what was the worst wildfire season on record, according to the province. The blazes mostly affected operations in the liquids- rich northwest part of the province, but at least one oil sands project also had to temporarily evacuate. Wildfires also affected Alberta production in 2019, but the most devastating for the region was three years earlier, when fires forced mass evacuations and destroyed parts of Fort McMurray. Wildfires in the spring of 2016 knocked about 1mn b/d of crude output off line. "It's important to note that fire activity is very different than the 2016 Horse River wildfire and we are well positioned to respond to this situation," said regional fire chief Jody Butz on Tuesday. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CVR expects normal Oklahoma refinery ops by end 2Q
CVR expects normal Oklahoma refinery ops by end 2Q
Houston, 14 May (Argus) — US independent refiner CVR has restarted several key units at its 75,000 b/d Wynnewood, Oklahoma, refinery and expects a return to normal operations by the end of the second quarter after a 28 April fire . The refiner has restarted a crude distillation unit (CDU), fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC) and alkylation unit at the plant, while a reformer is restarting, CVR said in an operational update today. The April fire damaged pipe racks and pumps associated with the plant's naphtha processing units, the company said. CVR expects throughputs of 170,000-190,000 b/d in the second quarter, information it did not report during earnings released on 29 April as it assessed the impact of the fire. CVR reported throughputs of 201,000 b/d in the second quarter of 2023. The refiner expects its renewable diesel unit co-located at the Wynnewood plant to run throughputs of 1,800-2,600 b/d in the second quarter, down from 4,700 b/d in the prior year period. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saras sees diesel margin improvement later in the year
Saras sees diesel margin improvement later in the year
Barcelona, 14 May (Argus) — Italian independent refiner Saras said today it expects diesel margins to rise later in the year, boosting profits at its 300,000 b/d Sarroch refinery. The comapny said there has been a "drastic decline" in regional diesel margins since the first quarter of the year, caused by cargoes from the US arriving at the same time as supplies from east of Suez that had been delayed by taking the longer Cape of Good Hope route. This is not necessarily bad for Saras' profits, said the firm's chief operating officer Marco Schiavetti. "All these logistic de-optimisations are supporting diesel cracks in particular, volatility in the market is supportive for the business in general," he said. The company expects diesel margins to rise later in the year. Saras said today that some maintenance works on Sarroch's crude distillation units (CDU) would take place in the second quarter and again in the fourth quarter. There will also be works in both periods on the firm's adjacent IGCC power plant. Saras' prospective purchase by trading firm Vitol could close within a couple of months. Saras' chairman Massimo Moratti said there are "no obstacles" to the deal from Italian authorities, with the firm waiting on EU approval including regulations on antitrust law. Deputy chief executive Franco Balsamo said: "We do not have any disclosure on the expected end of the process, but in my point of view in a couple of months we should receive a green light from the EU." There has not yet been co-operation between Saras and Vitol regarding refinery operations, said Balsamo. "Vitol is one of the largest broker in this market so we have regular business with them when there are mutual economic conditions," he said. "But as far as any formal co-operation it is not the right time. We are waiting for all the necessary procedures." The company made a profit of €77.4mn ($83.5mn) in the January-March period, lower by 44pc from the first quarter of 2023. Profits were very similar to €76.6mn in the first quarter of 2022 when refining margins began rising following the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the start of February that year. Company crude throughput forecast has historically been changeable. But 2024 guidance remains the same as previous statements at 265,000-275,000 b/d. The firm said its first quarter crude gravity was 32.5°API almost identical to Argus ' assessment of the refinery slate . By Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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