French industries prepare for tough winter

  • Spanish Market: Electricity
  • 23/09/22

Prospects of tensions on power supply this winter, combined with high prices, are forcing French industries to invent strategies aimed at cutting energy demand and adapting their production patterns.

Around 300 French energy-intensive firms could face financial difficulties owing to their high gas and electricity costs this winter, French industry minister Roland Lescure said earlier this week. And in case of a very cold winter, they could also be exposed to a risk of power cuts — one of the tools announced by French transmission system operator (TSO) RTE to balance the network in case of a supply crunch and higher demand.

Prime minister Elisabeth Borne earlier this month asked French industries to establish an "energy sobriety" plan aimed at cutting power and gas demand during the winter period, in line with the country's targets of a 10pc energy demand reduction in the next two years.

Winter contracts in the forward power market have also surged to unprecedented highs, fuelled by uncertainties on French nuclear availability. The fourth-quarter 2022 has been assessed by Argus at an average of €954/MWh so far in September, while the fourth-quarter 2021 was assessed at an average of €147.13/MWh in the equivalent period last year. Nuclear outages extensions announced by French utility EdF at the end of August propelled the product to new highs, as unavailability schedules were revised upwards. And the first-quarter 2023 has averaged €973/MWh so far this month.

"Facing those stratospherically high prices, we have many members that have their factories running at 80-90pc of capacity, and some of them have to suspend production," energy-intensive industries' association Uniden's representative Gildas Barreyre told Argus.

Belgian chemist firm Solvay has chosen to invest in energy efficiency to cope with high prices. "In our Dombasle site, we are using waste that cannot be recycled to produce steam for our soda ash production," the firm's representatives told Argus. So far, the company does not plan to halt or reduce production and remains "confident that it can keep serving customers even in the event of a 30pc gas curtailment in Europe", Solvay added.

Members of Uniden, of many sectors, are rescheduling maintenance works for the winter, thereby avoiding running their factories when prices are high or in case of a supply shortage. But others have chosen more radical options, such as glass producer Duralex, whose director Jose-Luis Llacuna on Thursday said that the firm will halt activities at its Chapelle-Saint-Mesmin factory during five months starting from November. "Energy costs represent 46pc of our revenue… this makes it impossible to produce [in those conditions]", Llacuna said.

And Zinc producer Nyrstar's factory in Auby, in the north of the country, is "continuing at the curtailed production levels announced last year" the company said in August, although declining to give further comments to Argus.

Need for state support

Most members of the Uniden association have part of their electricity needs covered by Arenh contracts — output sold by French utility EdF at a fixed price of €42/MWh, recently lifted to €46.20/MWh. "[Our members'] needs are covered at 60-80pc by the Arenh scheme, around 5-10pc are hedged with market futures or long-term contracts and the rest is exposed to the spot market," Uniden told Argus. The association is calling for a higher attribution of Arenh volumes, which would ideally cover 75-80pc of its members' needs.

While the government established a fund allowing firms with energy expenses amounting to 3pc or more of their revenue to benefit from state support until December, calls for emergency measures have been multiplying from industry unions. The association of industrial energy consumers CLEEE asked the government to implement a regulated tariff accessible to all companies for the duration of the crisis.

French president Emmanuel Macron this week urged energy-intensive companies that are currently renegotiating their contracts to refuse signing those at the current prices, adding that negotiations on the EU level will provide a solution to set "more reasonable" prices.


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02/05/24

Battery storage stands out in Japan clean power auction

Battery storage stands out in Japan clean power auction

Osaka, 2 May (Argus) — Japan's first auction for long-term zero emissions power capacity has attracted strong bidding interest with a plan to install battery storage, as investment in the power storage system is gaining momentum in line with expanded use of fluctuating renewable energy sources. Japan launched the clean power auction system from the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, aiming to spur investment in clean power sources by securing funding for fixed costs in advance to drive the country's decarbonisation by 2050. The first auction, which was held in January, has awarded 1.1GW capacity for battery storage, or 27pc of total contract capacity for clean power sources, excluding gas-fired generation that has been temporally included in the auction system to help ensure stable power supplies, nationwide transmission system operator Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operator (Occto), which manages the auction, said on 26 April. Bidding capacity for battery storage totalled around 4.6GW, the highest volume among any other clean power sources. This means the contract ratio for storage batteries was 24pc compared with the 100pc ratio for ammonia co-firing, hydrogen co-firing , biomass dedicated and nuclear capacity, along with gas-fired capacity . Awarded capacity for battery storage as well as pumping-up electric power facilities reached 1.67GW, exceeding the 1GW sought by the auction. Japan has secured a total of 9.77GW of net zero capacity through the 2023-24 auction. Contract volumes covered 1.3GW of nuclear, 199MW biomass, 577MW of pumping-up electric power, 770MW for ammonia co-firing and 55.3MW hydrogen co-firing, as well as 1.1GW of battery storage. This also included 5.76GW of gas-fired projects. All winners under the auction can generally receive the money for 20 years through Occto, which collect money from the country's power retailers, although they need to refund 90pc of other revenue. The first auction saw total funding of ¥233.6bn/yr ($1.51bn) for decarbonisation power sources and ¥176.6bn/yr for gas-fired capacity. Japan's battery requirements are expected to continue rising, with uncertainty over future nuclear availability likely to spur Tokyo to accelerate the roll-out of renewable energy to meet a 46pc greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030-31 against 2013-14 levels — a target still far above the 23pc recorded in 2022-23. Japan will need to install 38-41GW of renewable capacity, nearly triple actual output of 14GW in 2019. Japan is looking to establish lithium-ion battery production capacity of 150GWh/yr domestically and 600GWh/yr globally by 2030. The trade and industry ministry projects the latter target will require 380,000 t/yr of lithium, 310,000 t/yr of nickel, 600,000 t/yr of graphite, 60,000 t/yr of cobalt and 50,000 t/yr of manganese. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia issues offshore wind feasibility licences


02/05/24
02/05/24

Australia issues offshore wind feasibility licences

Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — The Australian federal government has issued the first feasibility licences for offshore wind projects in the country following a competitive process, for up to 12GW of capacity off the coast of Gippsland in the southern state of Victoria and a potential further 13GW in the next stage. Six projects have received approval to explore the feasibility of offshore wind farms in the Bass Strait off Gippsland's coast, which was the first offshore wind zone declared in Australia at the end of 2022. Successful applicants include Danish investment firm Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), Danish utility Orsted, Australian utility AGL Energy, European utilities EDP Renewables and Engie and Japanese utility Jera. The government also intends to grant another six licences, subject to consultation with First Nations groups. The 12 projects could have a potential combined capacity of around 25GW, the government said ( see table ). Projects that prove feasible will be able to apply for commercial licences and move to the construction phase if they secure financing, with the most advanced wind farms expected to start generating power in the early 2030s. CIP secured site exclusivity to develop two projects with a combined 4.4GW through a newly launched platform company Southerly Ten. The projects comprise the 2.2GW Star of the South, which claims to be the most advanced offshore wind project in Australia , along with the early stage 2.2GW Kut-Wut Brataualung. Southerly Ten is also developing the Destiny Wind project in Australia's second declared offshore wind zone off the Hunter region in New South Wales. Orsted was given one licence for a 2.8GW project and might receive another one for a 2GW wind farm. It said it will proceed with site investigations, environmental assessments and supply chain development, with a view to bid in future auctions planned by the Victorian government, which are expected to start in late 2025. Victoria is targeting 2GW of offshore wind capacity by 2032 and 9GW by 2040. "Subject to the above steps and a final investment decision, the projects are expected to be completed in phases from the early 2030s, with the aim to maximise dual site synergies through shared resources and economies of scale," Orsted said. The 2.5GW Gippsland Skies offshore wind project, belongs to a consortium made of Irish renewables firm Mainstream Renewable Power with 35pc, UK-based firm Reventus Power 35pc, AGL Energy 20pc and Australian developer Direct Infrastructure 10pc. The first phase of the project is expected to be operational in 2032, according to the consortium. The list of six projects already granted feasibility licences also include High Sea Wind, a proposed 1.28GW wind farm developed by EDP Renewables' and Engie's 50:50 joint venture Ocean Winds, along with Blue Mackerel North, a 1GW development by Japanese utility Jera Nex's subsidiary Parkwind. Parkwind is also developing another offshore wind project in Australia, with Australian utility Alinta Energy, the 1GW Spinifex in the Southern Ocean off Victoria, which was declared Australia's third wind zone in March. The other projects that might receive licences are being developed by companies such as Spanish utility Iberdrola, Spanish developer Bluefloat Energy, Australian firm Macquarie's wind developer Corio Generation, German utility RWE and a joint venture between Australia's Origin Energy and UK-based developer RES Group. By Juan Weik Australian offshore wind projects with feasibility licences Developer Capacity Licence Orsted Offshore Australia 1 Orsted 2.8 Granted Gippsland Skies Consortium* 2.5 Granted Star of the South Southerly Ten 2.2 Offered Kut-Wut Brataualung Southerly Ten 2.2 Granted High Sea Wind Ocean Winds 1.3 Granted Blue Mackerel North Parkwind 1.0 Granted Aurora Green Iberdrola 3.0 Under consultation Great Eastern Offshore Wind Corio Generation 2.5 Under consultation Gippsland Dawn Bluefloat Energy 2.1 Under consultation Orsted Offshore Australia 2 Orsted 2.0 Under consultation Navigator North Origin Energy, RES 1.5 Under consultation Kent Offshore Wind RWE N/A Under consultation Source: federal government, companies *Mainstream Renewable Power, Reventus Power, AGL, Direct Infrastructure Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand


01/05/24
01/05/24

US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand

New York, 1 May (Argus) — US natural gas producers and pipelines have pivoted almost in unison this year to talking up what they see as one of the strongest bullish cases for gas this decade: surging electricity demand from yet-to-be-built data centers to power artificial intelligence software. EQT, the largest US gas producer by volume, in an investor presentation last week called growing data center demand the "cornerstone" to the "natural gas bull case." Combining its own research with data from the US Energy Information Administration, the gas giant forecast an increase in gas demand of 10 Bcf/d (283mn m3/d) by 2030 to generate electricity, mostly to run data centers. Its more aggressive data center build-out scenario envisions a whopping 18 Bcf/d increase in gas demand through 2030. Total US gas production is currently about 100 Bcf/d. Kinder Morgan, one of the largest US gas pipeline operators, this month forecast 20pc of US power being gobbled up by data centers in 2030, up from a 2.5pc share in 2022. Cobbling together projections from several consultancies and financial advisories, the company said the electricity needed to run artificial intelligence software alone will comprise 15pc of US power demand by 2030. If just 40pc of that demand is met by gas, that would represent an increase in gas demand of 7-10 Bcf/d, it said. This is roughly in line with the high end of US bank Tudor Pickering Holt's forecast for gas demand to power data centers through 2030 (1.3-8.5 Bcf/d) and well above Goldman Sachs' and consultancy Enverus' projections of 3.3 Bcf/d and 2 Bcf/d, respectively. New tech, old problems Separating the wide ranges of these projections is the highly speculative nature of forecasting demand years into the future for competing energy sources to power next-generation technology. But the major upside and downside risks, analysts say, concern the more humdrum challenges of permitting and building out energy infrastructure. Goldman Sachs expects 28GW, or 60pc, of the generation capacity needed to power new data centers through 2030 will come from natural gas — 9GW from combined cycle gas turbines and 19GW from gas peaker plants. But with an average lag of four years from the time a gas transmission project is announced to the time it enters service, to say nothing of the high probability of litigation being brought by environmentalists and landowners, construction and permitting timelines are "the most top of mind constraint for natural gas," the bank said. Indeed, litigation and opposition from state regulators have ultimately led developers to call off several interstate pipeline projects in the eastern US in recent years. The exception to the rule, Equitrans' 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline is moving forward only because congressional action allowed it to bypass federal permitting hurdles. This is a particular problem for the gas industry's hopes of exploiting the data center boom, as a large share of future data centers are slated to be built in the southeast US, far from the major US gas fields. New data centers representing 2 Bcf/d of gas demand in Georgia probably requires a new pipeline into the southeast, FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said. Southeast premium A significant data-center buildout in the southeast without new pipelines could put upward pressure on regional gas prices, McLean said. This could exacerbate the effects of what has become perhaps the most prominent bullish case for US gas: a massive build-out of LNG export terminals along the US Gulf coast. With new export terminals pulling increasing volumes of gas south along the Transcontinental gas pipeline to super-chill and ship overseas in the coming years, the build-out in data centers will likely produce "an even bigger deficit in that southeast (gas) market," EQT chief financial officer Jeremy Knop told investors last week. "We think that market really, in time, becomes the most premium market in the country," he said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mitsui makes delayed exit from Paiton power project


01/05/24
01/05/24

Mitsui makes delayed exit from Paiton power project

Tokyo, 1 May (Argus) — Japanese trading house Mitsui completed on 30 April the ¥109bn ($690mn) sale of its stake in Indonesia's 2,045MW Paiton coal-fired power plant in east Java following multiple delays. Mitsui originally tried to complete its exit by the end of March 2022 . It said the procedures with Paiton's offtaker Indonesian state-owned power firm Persero took more time than expected without providing further details. Japanese thermal power producer Jera withdrew from Paiton by selling its 14pc share in 2021. Mitsui sold its 45.515pc share in Paiton Energy, as well as a 45.515pc stake in Netherlands-based subsidiary Minejesa Capital and a 65pc stake in Singapore-based IPM Asia that are related companies of the Paiton project. Mistui sold the stakes to RH International (RHIS), which is a Singapore-based subsidiary of Thai power producer Ratch, and Indonesian power company Medco Daya Abadi Lestari's subsidiary Medco Daya Energi Sentosa (MDES). Paiton Energy is now owned by RHIS, MDES and Qatar-based company Nebras Power. Mitsui did not disclose their ownership ratios. Paiton consists of the 615MW No.7, 615MW No.8 and the 815MW No.3 units, which sell electricity to Persero through an unspecified long-term contract. Mitsui now holds 9.6GW of power capacity assets globally, with 8pc being coal-fired projects. The exit from Paiton cut its coal-fired ratio by 8 percentage points, while raising its renewable ratio by 3 percentage points to 32pc. Growing global pressure against coal-fired power generation likely prompted Mitsui to exit Paiton. Energy ministers from G7 countries this week pledged to accelerate "efforts towards the phase-out of unabated coal power generation". By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Italian April power imports drop on NTC restrictions


30/04/24
30/04/24

Italian April power imports drop on NTC restrictions

London, 30 April (Argus) — Italian net electricity imports fell to their lowest in more than a year in April owing to significant constraints in net transfer capacity (NTC) from France to Italy, supporting an increase in domestic generation. Net imports averaged 4.7GW in April, down from 7GW in March and well below 6.7GW in the same month last year, according to data from Italian transmission system operator Terna. This was the country's tightest net importing position for any month since August. Italian imports from France saw the largest year-on-year decline, averaging 1.5GW compared with 2.7GW in April last year. This was Italy's lowest net imports since August 2022. Imports from Switzerland also fell on the year, declining by 500MW to 2.3GW, the lowest since August last year ( see chart ). The steep drop in imports to Italy's north zone is largely a result of significant reduction in the available NTC on France's eastern borders. Since early March, strong commercial exports through all of France's eastern borders, combined with low availability of the French power grid because of planned and unplanned outages, have led to "an extremely tense situation" for the French transmission system, the country's grid operator RTE has said. These factors have led to soaring physical flows and security issues on some interconnectors on the France-Switzerland and France-Italy borders. RTE on 5 March reduced the day-ahead NTC on the France-Italy border from a scheduled 4.5GW to 1.6GW, but the measure proved "insufficient to mitigate operational issues", RTE said. The overloads, although close to the France-Italy border, were induced by high commercial exports on all of France's eastern borders, including those with Belgium and Germany. RTE consequently applied additional safety measures to guarantee the operational security of the grid, such as lowering the NTC on the France-Switzerland border from 2.5GW to 2GW. Export constraints have resulted in French prices remaining at a significant discount to Italy, with the French spot index delivering at an average discount of €59.13/MWh in April compared with €35.37/MWh in March and €28.61/MWh in April last year. And falling Italian imports have driven a 2GW year-on-year increase in domestic generation to 24.6GW in April, while Italian power demand has remained virtually stable at 28.8GW. Minimum temperatures in Milan averaged 6.6°C on 1-30 April, up from 5.3°C in March and above 5.7°C in April last year. RTE is expecting some NTC curtailments until the beginning of May and from August to mid-October, it said. By Timothy Santonastaso Italian imports by country GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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