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Shale unlikely to pick up the slack after Opec+ cut

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 06/10/22

US shale oil, once the bane of Opec+ producers, is in no position to fill the gap left by the group's planned 2mn b/d output cut designed to put a floor under prices.

Shale explorers started the year reluctant to significantly step up drilling, as shareholders demanded they focus on returns. The cash windfall they reaped on the back of higher oil prices from the war in Ukraine supported this stance. And then rising costs — for everything from rigs to workers to drill pipe — became another barrier in the way of lifting output.

Inflationary pressures have not eased in recent months, and 2023 is not shaping up to be much better.

"Investor pressure, infrastructure and supply chain bottlenecks, unprecedented cost inflation — all these factors impose a hard ceiling on US tight oil growth capacity these days," said Artem Abramov, head of global energy systems at Rystad Energy.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas flagged ongoing cost pressures and supply-chain delays as a major source of pessimism among oil and gas producers in its third quarter energy survey.

Costs increased for the seventh quarter in a row, while firms reported it was taking longer to obtain materials and equipment. An employment index measuring the demand for workers was at a record high, while companies reported wages continuing to rise.

"The biggest issue that our company is facing is a shortage of personnel and equipment from our oilfield service vendors," wrote one executive in the anonymous survey. "Another impediment is a shortage of steel tubulars and a corresponding increase in their price."

The head of North Dakota's mineral resources department recently referenced a "steady drumbeat" of drillers complaining about worker shortages.

Companies have said they are "just unable to attract the skilled labor that we need to deploy more drilling rigs and more frac (hydraulic fracturing) crews," said Lynn Helms.

Little appetite to up output

After engaging in damaging price wars in the past with Opec, shale has little appetite to compete for market share these days.

Publicly-traded companies are heeding investor calls for higher payouts after years of profligate spending resulted in heavy losses.

While private drillers have picked up the slack to some degree, they face the same sort of price pressures as their public peers, and their acreage is often of lesser quality.

Coming out of the pandemic, many firms relied on a record inventory of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells to start up new production, saving them the expense of starting from scratch. They accounted for more than a third of new wells from mid-2020 to mid-2021.

But that backlog has now been largely exhausted. Only 2pc of new capacity came from DUC wells in August, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The upshot is that companies will have to boost spending to keep output going.

After rebounding from the pandemic-induced collapse in drilling, the US rig count, as measured by oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, has also struggled to make further headway. Recent gains have mostly been incremental, and the overall rig count closed out September unchanged at 765 from the end of August.

At the same time, the EIA has scaled back US output growth projections. Although production next year is still expected to surpass the record 12.3mn b/d set in 2019, initial forecasts for hefty gains this year have proved wide of the mark. Output is now seen growing by 540,000 b/d this year to 11.79mn b/d, down from earlier 1mn b/d projections from some analysts.

The White House had largely given up its unsuccessful efforts earlier this year to get producers to increase output, pivoting more recently to getting the energy industry to boost fuel inventories to help lower pump prices. But the severity of the Opec+ production cuts may lead the administration to makes its plea to the shale patch once again.


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14/02/25

Lack of tariff details worry US energy markets

Lack of tariff details worry US energy markets

Washington, 14 February (Argus) — Uncertainty over potential tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico is already roiling North American energy trade, as trading desks struggle to understand how tariffs would be assessed and some buyers are unwilling to commit to taking March cargoes without more details. US president Donald Trump's planned 10pc tariff on energy commodity imports from Canada and a 25pc import tax on Mexican energy was originally set for 4 February but he postponed implementation until 4 March. The three governments are negotiating to avert a full-blown trade war, and many market participants are hoping that Trump would again delay their implementation after winning some concessions, as he did earlier this month. But even without tariffs in place, vast segments of the energy industry — oil and gas producers, refiners, pipeline operators, traders — are bracing for them. Energy trade across North America has been tariff-free for decades. Trump during his first term terminated the 1994 North America Free Trade Agreement, but replaced it with the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in 2020 that kept the energy trade terms unchanged. The sudden imposition of tariffs after decades of free trade could create legal uncertainty in contractual obligations related to the payment of tariffs and reporting requirements, law firm Vinson & Elkins partner Jason Fleischer told Argus . "It's been a long time since oil and gas pipelines have really had to deal with anything quite like this." At least one large Canadian refiner attempted to pass along the tariff to gasoline cargo buyers in the US ahead of the original 4 February start date, leading a few buyers to threaten to pull out of their contracts, market sources told Argus . Complicating the matter is the approach taken by the Trump administration to impose import taxes differs greatly from current trade terms. The regular US customs duties on crude, for example, are currently set in volumetric terms, at 5.25¢/bl and 10.5¢/bl depending on crude quality. In practice, nearly every source of US crude imports is exempt from tariffs at present. But the import tax set out in Trump's executive orders is to be imposed on the value of the commodity — without specifying how that will be calculated and at what specific point during the transportation process. Likewise, guidance on the new tariffs from the US Customs and Border Patrol (CBP), given just before the original 4 February deadline, did not address the specific issues relating to the energy commodities. CBP and the Treasury Department will have to issue regulations spelling out specific details on how tariffs are to be assessed and collected, Vinson & Elkins partner Jeff Jakubiak said. "The advice we're giving to companies is to collect information and get ready to provide it to the government at some point in the future," Jakubiak said. If tariffs go into effect, "there is likely to be a combination of reporting obligations by the transporter as well as the owner of the commodity. And in both cases, my advice is, figure out how you can accurately count and assign volumes that are moving across the border and figure out how you would price those." Market effects also uncertain The uncertainty over the timing and details of implementation of tariffs have left the affected market participants having to guess who will carry the burden of new taxes. The discount for Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude at Hardisty, Alberta, to the CMA Nymex WTI contract widened on the eve of the initial 4 February deadline of tariffs, suggesting that market participants expected Canadian producers to bear the brunt of tariffs. But over time, that burden likely will shift depending on individual market power of buyers and sellers. This could hit refiners in the US midcontinent that currently rely on WCS and have few alternatives to taking Canadian crude. They could, in turn, pass on the additional costs to consumers at the pump. US independent refiner PBF Energy said this week that tariffs would likely cut US midcon refinery runs , even if those refiners could find alternatives to Canadian crudes. Most Mexico-sourced crude markets are seaborne, giving producers in that country an alternative to US markets. "For this scenario, we anticipate [US Gulf coast] refiners will reduce consumption to the lower limit of their contractual obligations but will continue to purchase Mexican crude and pay the tariff via reduced refining margins," investment bank Macquarie said in a recent note to clients. Canadian producers also expressed concern about the uncertain impact of tariffs on crude volumes trans-shipped through the US, either for exports to third country destinations from Gulf coast ports or transported on US pipelines to destinations in eastern Canada. Without guidance from the US customs authorities, it is not clear if such flows would be subject to new US tariffs. Integrated oil sands producer Suncor's refineries on the Canadian east coast rely on crude flows from Enbridge's 540,000 b/d Line 5 or 500,000 b/d Line 78 that cross into the US in Michigan before crossing back into Canada. "I would say that I don't know that anyone on the planet knows exactly what's going to happen on tariffs," chief executive Rich Kruger said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update


13/02/25
13/02/25

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update

Updates with more details, additional quotes from Trump. Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. A fact sheet circulated by the White House singled out Brazil's tariffs on US-sourced ethanol and EU's higher tariffs on imported cars as examples of the allegedly discriminatory treatment that Trump would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how or when the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. So far, the pending actions do not yet appear to be as severe or hastily implemented as Trump's recent comments led many to believe. His directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. It merely directs US government agencies to review if US exporters face higher taxes and other trade barriers compared with their foreign competitors, and to propose countermeasures. The review preceding the potential imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' will be complete by 1 April, Trump's commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, said. "We'll be ready to go on 1 April and and we'll hand it to the president, and he'll make a decision," Lutnick said. The intent of the directive is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, Trump is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. The tariffs are going to result in "tremendous amounts of jobs, and ultimately prices will stay the same, or go down, but we're going to have a very dynamic country," Trump said. Prompted by the reporters to say if voters would hold him responsible for any resulting spike in inflation, Trump said, "prices could go up somewhat short-term, but prices will also go down." The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. The 1 April date referenced in today's announcement is also a deadline set in an earlier Trump executive order for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods". That review is the first step in planned imposition of tariffs on national security and other grounds against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs


13/02/25
13/02/25

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. Trump's trade advisers previously cited Brazil's tariff on US-sourced ethanol, which is higher than the US customs duty on ethanol, as an example of the disparity they would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. Trump's directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. The intent of the order is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, the Trump administration is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. "Last year, US-based companies paid foreign governments $370bn in taxes," White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said today. "Meanwhile, foreign companies paid the US $57bn in taxes. Are we supposed to keep doing that because of some economic model that doesn't have the whole real world in it?" The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. He set a deadline of 1 April for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods" — a review that likely will result in additional tariffs later this year against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs would cut midcon refinery runs: PBF


13/02/25
13/02/25

US tariffs would cut midcon refinery runs: PBF

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's impending tariffs on Canadian crude would cause US midcontinent refineries to cut throughputs, even if they find alternative crudes, US independent refiner PBF Energy said today. The tariffs would cause a sizable disruption and "have some impact on throughput," chief executive Matthew Lucey said on an earnings call. Switching to alternative crudes would lead to lower yields of gasoline, diesel and other fuels because refineries are optimized around a certain type of crude, he said. Lucey described the US-Canada tariff situation as a "standoff" because US refiners need Canadian crude to maintain throughput while Canada needs the US market to avoid production cuts. "If they don't sell it to the US, it's going to stay in the ground," he said. PBF operates a 173,000 b/d refinery in Toledo, Ohio, which runs a significant slate of synthetic crude out of Canada. The US will impose a 10pc tariff on energy from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico starting on 4 March, after Trump delayed the tariff by a month. US refiners' runs of Canadian crude averaged about 4mn b/d over the past year, or about 22pc of total US throughputs, according to US investment bank Tudor Pickering. Most of that crude feeds large midcontinent facilities. The region as a whole consumes about 70pc of US crude imports from Canada, with the balance going to the US Gulf coast. US refiners who rely on Canadian crude imports are seeking alternative sources. US refiner Marathon Petroleum said last week it could run some domestic crudes in its midcontinent refineries, including crude from the Bakken shale in North Dakota and Montana, to replace Canadian imports. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sanctions complicate Syria’s access to crude, products


13/02/25
13/02/25

Sanctions complicate Syria’s access to crude, products

Dubai, 13 February (Argus) — Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders because shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there in case they are detained, traders say. Syria's transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mn bl of crude, 80,000t of 90 Ron gasoline and 100,000t each of fuel oil and gasoil last month — the first since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December last year. The tenders closed earlier this month after minimal participation from trading firms and were mostly awarded to local companies which will effectively act as intermediaries, market participants said. Market participants have hinted to Argus that small and medium-sized Turkish firms were likely on the list of bidders . But the delivery of the cargoes is under threat, with shipping companies avoiding the route over concerns about tankers being "sanctioned or stranded". Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and UK sanctions, which could have narrowed the pool for bidding, although EU foreign ministers have agreed on a roadmap to ease restrictions. The bidding pool was also limited by a clause in the tender document that noted "the seller should not have any direct or indirect trade relations with any country that is in war with Syria", a market source said, adding that this could have discouraged some companies from taking part. Before Assad's removal, Syria relied heavily on Iran for crude and product supplies. But Tehran — the Assad regime's closest ally — ceased shipments after the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took control last month, leaving the new transitional government under pressure to find alternative suppliers. Neighbouring Arab countries are stepping in to help the new government deal with acute fuel shortages. State-owned Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company has begun exporting around 500 t/d of LPG to Syria. The ministry also issued two LPG import tenders seeking a total of 86,000t, but the winner has not been confirmed By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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