US readies auction for Gulf of Mexico oil leases

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
24/02/23

The US has finished preparations for an auction next month of oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico, giving producers their first chance since 2021 to buy drilling rights in the region.

The US Interior Department today released a final notice to hold Lease Sale 259 on 29 March. The agency will offer oil and gas leases on 73.3mn acres (300,000 km²), fulfilling a congressional mandate from last year's Inflation Reduction Act to hold an offshore lease sale by the end of next month.

Offshore producers have lobbied President Joe Biden's administration to resume regular leasing to provide more predictability to their ability to operate in the Gulf. The Inflation Reduction Act requires another offshore lease sale by 30 September, but additional lease sales cannot be held until the administration finalizes a new offshore leasing plan for 2023-28.

The Interior Department, in a offshore leasing plan proposed last summer, said it was considering resuming twice-a-year lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico. But the agency is also considering a "no lease sale" option that would halt further leasing until at least 2028.

Oil industry groups last month filed a lawsuit asking a federal court to set a 30 September deadline for the Biden administration to finish the five-year leasing plan. Industry officials are urging the administration to reject the no lease sale option.

"Halting new leasing on US federal lands or waters would hurt communities that depend on offshore production," American Petroleum Institute Frank Macchiarola senior vice president said at an industry event this week in Canada. "It would also likely cause volatility in global energy markets."

The US Gulf of Mexico produced 1.7mn b/d of crude last year, according to federal data. Offshore production could hit a record high of 1.9mn b/d this year, according to the US Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

By Chris Knight

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20/03/25

Australia must rethink gas strategy: Grattan

Sydney, 20 March (Argus) — Grattan's Orange Book 2025: Policy priorities for the federal government report suggests redesigning Canberra's future gas strategy, coordinating a shift away from gas for households and some industries while changing market control mechanisms. Australia's next federal government must act to address a shortfall of gas in the country's southeastern states by creating a demand response mechanism for the national gas market and bringing together stakeholders to permit initial LNG imports in mid-2026, according to Grattan. Australia has always been both an exporter and importer of LPG, proving it is possible to build infrastructure to ship gas to the nation's south for the next 3-4 years in line with expected shortfalls, director of Grattan's energy program Tony Wood told a Sydney forum on 19 March. Building or expanding gas pipelines would be expensive and inefficient as the nation decarbonises, Wood said, with less gas forecast to be used as Australia targets net zero emissions by 2050. Canberra should institute a working group involving producers, users, traders, terminal owners, governments and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission — which reports on market supply — to achieve seasonal imports of LNG in winter months, according to the Grattan report. A rule change to create a demand response mechanism akin to that under national electricity market rules would assist in meeting small shortfalls, such as during severe weather or unexpected supply outages. Demand is expected to rise on the back the closure of coal-fired power stations in the 2030s, according to Canberra's future gas strategy released in 2024. Gas-fired power demand may double in the decade to 2043 because of the need to support a solar and wind-heavy grid. This requires a reworking of the future gas strategy to specify plans to reduce demand and clarify future gas requirements outside of power generation, Grattan's report said. Assistance for households and industries to electrify processes is also needed, together with optimising infrastructure to ensure residual users in power generation and industry can access gas supply. The main controls on east coast gas grids, the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) and code of conduct , should be revised to allow for interstate transfers of gas, Grattan said, likely from Queensland's Gladstone-based LNG projects to the southern states. The code of conduct, which mandates an A$12/GJ ($8/GJ) price on domestic gas, came into effect in 2023 amid booming global gas prices but must be reviewed in 2025. Australia's energy and climate change ministerial council met on 14 March but declined to decide on expanding the Australian Energy Market Operator's powers, to enable it to address the gas shortage possibly through underwriting LNG import terminals. More analysis will be commissioned ahead of a decision at the next meeting in mid-2025. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

19/03/25

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

Adds Powell comments, economic projections. Houston, 19 March (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020. "Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we are looking at," Fed chair Jerome Powell told journalists after the meeting. "The economy seems to be healthy." Powell acknowledged some of the negative market sentiment in recent weeks, which he said "... probably has to do with turmoil at the beginning of an administration." "We kind of know there are going to be tariffs and they tend to bring growth down and they tend to bring inflation up," he said, but long-term inflation expectations are "well anchored." In December the Fed said it expected 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents. Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.7pc from a prior estimate of 2.1pc in the December economic projections. They see inflation rising to 2.7pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.5pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed keeps rate unchanged, signals 2 cuts this year

19/03/25

US Fed keeps rate unchanged, signals 2 cuts this year

Houston, 19 March (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed cutting the rate by 100 basis points in the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020. In December last year, the Fed penciled-in 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US imports of Canadian crude at 2-year low: Update

19/03/25

US imports of Canadian crude at 2-year low: Update

Adds preliminary import data for Canada, Mexico. Calgary, 19 March (Argus) — Imports of Canadian crude into the US fell to a two-year low last week with tariffs giving shippers pause, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data reported today. Canada is by far the largest source of foreign crude for the US but flows fell to 3.1mn b/d in the week ended 14 March, according to preliminary estimates. This is down by 541,000 b/d from the week before and the lowest since the week ended 24 March 2023, when 3mn b/d was imported. While weekly data can be volatile, the volume of crude from Canada has trended lower in February and the first half of March with shippers likely sensitive to the ever-changing US policy on imports. A 25pc tariff, later reduced to 10pc, on Canadian energy was threatened to start in early February before being delayed by 30 days. It then went into effect from 4-7 March before being lifted again for goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. US president Donald Trump is threatening more tariffs will be imposed on 2 April. South Bow, the owner of the 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline connecting Alberta to the US midcontinent and beyond said just the threat of tariffs prompted uncommitted shippers to dial back exports to the US. Crude imports from Mexico, who have also been targeted by Trump tariffs, were also down on the week at 195,000 b/d. This is lower by 118,000 b/d and is the fifth-lowest on record, according to EIA data going back to 2010. Overall crude imports to the US were only down by 85,000 b/d to 5.4mn b/d on higher deliveries from Colombia, Nigeria and Venezuela, while crude exports rose last week by 1.4mn b/d to 4.6mn b/d. As a result, net imports fell by 1.4mn b/d to 741,000 b/d, the third-lowest level on record in data going back to 2001. Crude stocks rise by 1.7mn bl US crude inventories rose last week as a gain in the Gulf coast region outweighed draws elsewhere. US crude inventories rose to 437mn bl in the week ended 14 March, up from 435.2mn bl a week earlier. This is the highest level since 436.5mn bl in the week ended 12 July 2024. Compared with a year earlier, inventories last week are still down by 8.1mn bl. Stockpiles in the US Gulf coast region rose to 252.3mn bl from 248.8mn bl a week earlier and the highest since June 2024. Inventories at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma fell by 1mn bl to 23.5mn bl and are down by 8mn bl from a year earlier. Inventories in the greater US midcontinent region, including Cushing, fell on the week by 2.3mn bl to 105.5mn bl. Crude inventories at the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) came in at 395.9mn bl for a weekly gain of 275,000 bl. SPR stocks are not included in the overall EIA commercial crude inventory figures. US crude production fell by 2,000 b/d on the week to 13.57mn b/d. By Brett Holmes US weekly crude stocks/movements Stocks mn bl 14-Mar 7-Mar ±% Year ago ±% Crude oil (excluding SPR) 437.0 435.2 0.4% 445.0 -1.8% - Cushing crude 23.5 24.5 -4.1% 31.4 -25.4% Imports/exports '000 b/d Crude imports 5,385 5,470 -1.6% 6,278 -14.2% Crude exports 4,644 3,290 41.2% 4,881 -4.9% Refinery usage Refinery inputs '000 b/d 15,949 15,880 0.4% 16,102 -1.0% Refinery utilisation % 86.9 86.5 0.5% 87.8 -1.0% Production mn b/d 13.6 13.6 0.0% 13.1 3.8% — US Energy Information Administration Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

19/03/25

Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

London, 19 March (Argus) — Turkey's lira currency fell to record lows against the US dollar today, after the arrest of Istanbul's mayor provoked concern about instability. The depreciation could cause imports of dollar-denominated commodities to become more expensive, although reaction was mixed across markets. The lira went as low at 40/$1 in early trading, from below 37/$1 on Tuesday 18 March, before easing to around 38/$1 later in the day. The lira has been slowly depreciating against the dollar for many years, but the sharp fall today came after Ekrem Imamoglu, one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rivals, was held on suspicion of corruption and aiding a terrorist organisation. Turkey is a significant importer of natural gas, crude and LPG, as well as coal and petcoke, although demand for many commodities will be muted currently because of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. Early indications from the coal and petcoke markets were that all import trades had halted as the lira hit the record low. In polymers markets the focus is on whether demand recovers after Ramadan ends on 30 March. But a trading source in Turkey said the fall is not enough for "massive changes" to imports of oil products. The OECD forecasts headline inflation in Turkey at 31.4pc this year, the highest among its members, easing to 17.3pc in 2026. The IMF has forecast Turkey's economy will grow by 2.6pc this year, after an expansion of 2.7pc in 2024. By Ben Winkley, Aydin Calik, Joseph Clarke, Amaar Khan and Dila Odluyurt Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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