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Venezuela politician wants continued US pressure

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 26/02/24

Venezuelan opposition politician and would-be presidential candidate Maria Corina Machado is arguing in favor of continued US economic and political pressure to force Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro to hold an election that he could lose.

Machado, who overwhelmingly won an opposition primary last year to run in a presidential election expected to be held later in 2024, is barred from taking part in the Venezuelan election. The US has made her ability to participate in the contest a key condition for extending temporary sanctions relief for Venezuela's oil sector beyond 18 April.

"We need to make the Maduro regime understand that he has only two options," either comply with the US-endorsed agreement to hold free and fair elections or walking away from that deal and facing "enormous internal pressure and international isolation," Machado said today in a virtual appearance before Washington think tank the Atlantic Council. Machado has recently made a number of virtual appearances at multiple Washington-based events, including before a House of Representatives panel.

Machado would not explicitly support the snapback of US sanctions and suggested, without providing details, that there may be other ways to economically pressure the Maduro government. "It is time for the international actors that have been supporting the Barbados agreement to make Maduro understand" that he could not break an agreement with the opposition without consequences, Machado said.

Machado also swatted away suggestions that she could step aside as the main opposition candidate in favor of a candidate cleared to run by the government. "The regime at this moment will only accept someone that they know in advance, without doubt, that they will defeat," she said.

The opposition has complained that the Maduro government has partially violated terms of the agreement reached in Barbados in October to partially lift US sanctions by continuing the ban on Machado and by an intense anti-opposition crackdown that began four weeks ago. The government is trying to walk away from the agreement because it realized that "it has totally lost its social base," according to Machado.

But Machado insisted that it is still possible to compel Maduro to hold an open election which he could lose and step down. The key is to make Maduro and his close advisers "understand that the situation is unsustainable if he goes through this path of absolute repression and discharging all the agreements signed so far, and at the same time that if he doesn't, then there will be a path with lower costs."

Other observers do not see a fair election as a possibility under Maduro.

"It is my personal opinion that Maduro will never comply with any agreement that would lead to his involuntary departure from power," former US ambassador to Venezuela William Brownfield said during a recent panel discussion hosted by Washington, DC-based think-tank the Wilson Center. Maduro will postpone any planned election if he is unable to control the outcome, Brownfield said.

The US administration's decision to temporary lift Venezuela sanctions "was not built on some kind of enduring faith in the implementation of the agreement — it was built on verification," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said earlier this month.

When the 18 April deadline expires, "we will see, at that point, where we are with respect to the Maduro regime following through on its commitments, and then we'll make our determinations about how we proceed from there," Sullivan said.


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13/02/25

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

London, 13 February (Argus) — The IEA said today that the Opec+ alliance's improving compliance with agreed crude production targets is "slowly chipping away" at its projected supply surplus this year. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the Paris-based agency again lowered its forecasted surplus for this year, this time by 270,000 b/d to 450,000 b/d. This is the agency's third consecutive downgrade since November, when it saw 2025 supply outstripping demand by 1.15mn b/d. These forecasts are subject to change. With data now "largely complete" for 2024, the agency's balances show supply matching and demand exactly at 102.9mn b/d. This is a long way off the 800,000 b/d supply surplus the IEA forecast for 2024 this time last year. Opec+ is implementing three sets of crude production cuts, and is scheduled to start unwinding one of these — totalling 2.2mn b/d — starting in April. A recent meeting of the group's key producers signalled no change to this plan . The IEA continues to assume all Opec+ cuts will remain in place this year. But the agency said that should production return as planned, this would add 430,000 b/d to its 2025 supply forecast. Aside from Opec+, there are other key supply uncertainties this year. These range from new US sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil exports to US tariffs on some of its key trading partners. "It is still too early to tell how trade flows will respond to new US tariffs or the prospect thereof, and what the impact of the escalation of sanctions on Iran and Russia may be in the longer run," the IEA said. As thing stand, the IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.56mn b/d this year to 104.45mn b/d, compared with growth of 1.76mn b/d projected in its January report. This slower growth was largely driven by Opec+, which the agency now sees supplying 170,000 b/d less than previously thought this year. It also noted a 950,000 b/d fall in global oil supply in January, "with extreme cold weather hitting North American supply, compounding large declines in Nigerian and Libyan production." On demand, the agency upgraded its growth forecast this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d. It sees oil demand at 104mn b/d in 2025, driven by "a minor pickup in GDP growth and lower oil prices as per the current forward curve." The IEA said global observed oil stocks fell by 17.1mn bl in December. Crude stocks fell by 63.5mn bl and products stocks rose by 46.4mn bl. It said preliminary data show global stocks falling by 49.3mn bl in January, led by large draw in China. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec


12/02/25
12/02/25

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec

London, 12 February (Argus) — Opec said today that the US' new trade policies have added "more uncertainty" into global oil markets. This uncertainty "has the potential to create supply-demand imbalances that are not reflective of market fundamentals, and therefore generate more volatility", Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The producer group said the uncertainty has also "increased inflation expectations" and "made it more challenging to cut interest rates in 2025". US president Donald Trump started his new term in January with threats to impose a wide array of import tariffs on several big trading partners. Washington has so far announced new tariffs on imports from China, as well as on all US imports of steel and aluminium. And Trump says more tariffs are on the way. For now, Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 unchanged. For this year, the group sees oil demand growing by 1.45mn b/d to 105.2mn b/d, while in 2026 it sees consumption increasing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d. In terms of supply, the group has downgraded its growth forecast for non-Opec+ liquids for 2025 and 2026 by 100,000 b/d each to 1mn b/d for both years. The downgrade is driven by the US and Latin America. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 118,000 b/d to 40.625mn b/d, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Americas dominate Spain's crude imports in 2024


12/02/25
12/02/25

Americas dominate Spain's crude imports in 2024

Madrid, 12 February (Argus) — Spain's crude imports from the Americas climbed sharply in 2024 to account for more than half of total receipts for the first time on record. Spanish crude imports increased by 5pc on the year to more than 1.29mn b/d, according to petroleum reserves regulator Cores, driven by double-digit growth in receipts from the three largest suppliers the US, Mexico and Brazil. This combined with a respective doubling and tripling of imports from smaller suppliers Venezuela and Guyana to give the Americas a 53pc share of Spanish receipts in 2024, up from 47pc in 2023. Imports were 200,000 b/d below the Spanish refining system's 1.49mn b/d of crude distillation capacity, which like other European countries refineries continued to struggle with competition from cheap imported finished products. North America accounted for 31pc of imports. The US led suppliers for a second consecutive year, with receipts rising by 18pc to 214,000 b/d. Imports from Mexico climbed by 20pc to 161,000 b/d as higher supplies of lighter Olmeca and Isthmus grades more than offset lower amounts of heavy Maya crude at integrated Repsol's refineries. Receipts from Spain's second largest supplier Brazil climbed by 38pc to 181,000 b/d. Those from Venezuela more than doubled to 58,000 b/d after Repsol increased imports under its crude-for-debt deal with state-owned PdV. The Mideast Gulf accounted for just 8pc of Spanish crude imports in 2024, down from 12pc in 2023 as unrest in the region reshaped shipping routes. Receipts from Iraq dropped by 38pc to 38,000 b/d, from Saudi Arabia they fell by 15pc to 70,000 b/d and there were none from the UAE. Africa's share of Spain's crude slate narrowed in 2024. Receipts from Nigeria fell by 21pc to 129,000 b/d, and from Libya they fell by 13pc to 88,000 b/d. Opec's share of Spanish crude imports fell to a record low of 37pc in 2024 from 44pc in 2023 and around 50pc over the past decade. Its share was 35pc of 1.24mn b/d in December. Spain's year-on-year import growth slowed to 3pc in December from 14pc in November. Deliveries were lower at Repsol's 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery ahead of maintenance in January, rose at Moeve's 244,000 b/d Algeciras facility after conclusion of work there and rose back to capacity at Repsol's 135,000 b/d Coruna after maintenance finished at the start of December. Spain imported crude from 15 countries in December, down from 17 in November as slates narrowed and receipts rose from Nigeria and Mexico. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Petrobras considers India for crude: CEO


11/02/25
11/02/25

Petrobras considers India for crude: CEO

Sao Paulo, 11 February (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras is considering opportunities in deepwater and ultra-deepwater crude blocks in India, chief executive Magda Chambriard said today. The Indian government announced on Tuesday, during the India Energy Week conference held in New Delhi, that it will offer 25 deepwater and ultra-deepwater oil blocks, Chambriard said. "We will carefully evaluate these opportunities, always looking for new production frontiers, which will guarantee us security and financing for the energy transition," she added. Petrobras has been looking for alternatives to replenish its crude reserves, as those in its main source of oil — Brazil's pre-salt — are dwindling. But reserves are not in immediate danger, as the firm's proven oil and natural gas reserves rose by 4.6pc to 11.4bn bl of oil equivalent (boe) at the end of 2024. The company's 2025-29 strategic plan envisions investments in Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia and Africa, but this is the first time Petrobras mentioned India as a potential source of crude. Still, the company's main bets to replenish reserves are the southern Pelotas basin and the Foz do Amazonas basin in the northern equatorial margin. The latter could contain 10bn of recoverable bl of oil equivalent, according to energy research bureau EPE. Petrobras is awaiting permission to start exploratory drilling there , after it appealed environmental agency Ibama's May 2023 decision to deny the license on environmental grounds. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage


11/02/25
11/02/25

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage

London, 11 February (Argus) — Bitumen production at TotalEnergies' 109,300 b/d Feyzin refinery near Lyon, central France, is halted from 10-20 February as part of a wider shutdown affecting the refinery's crude distillation unit (CDU) and reformer. Workers at the plant said last week there had been unexpectedly extended CDU works caused by a blockage by unspecified debris . TotalEnergies said at the time it would not comment on operations. Officials at the company confirmed today the CDU and reformer were among units shut at Feyzin, but said the halt was planned. They said the CDU had suffered no unexpected blockage or damage. Workers reiterated today that debris had been detected in the CDU and that this could result in a shutdown lasting weeks. Sources familiar with the refinery's operations said today that the bitumen halt would cause no supply disruptions in terms of the usual truck movements, with sufficient stocks held at the plant to meet current low-level requirements during the winter slow activity period in the road paving and other construction sectors. By Fenella Rhodes and Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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