New Jersey nuke retirement may boost gas demand
Exelon Energy this week retired its 645MW Oyster Creek nuclear power plant in Forked River, New Jersey, a long-anticipated move that could result in higher demand for natural gas.
The plant's shutdown could lead to a 179mn cf/d (5mn m³/d) increase in natural gas demand if the lost output was replaced by natural gas-fired generation, according to an Argus analysis.
Oyster Creek will be the sixth nuclear power plant to retire in the US in the past five years. Nuclear generators have struggled in recent years to keep their aging plants economically viable amid the rise of more efficient natural gas and cleaner renewable generation, a factor that may have hastened Oyster Creek's shutdown.
The plant, located 50 miles (80km) east of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, began service in December 1969, making it the oldest commercially operated nuclear power plant in the US. Exelon in 2010 said it would retire Oyster Creek in December 2019 even though the plant's license is not set to expire until 2029. But the company in February announced it would shut this fall at the end of its fueling cycle.
The plant is one of four nuclear power stations in the US that have planned retirement dates more than a decade before their operating licenses are set to expire.
One factor in the decision to shut Oyster Creek early was estimated costs of more than $800mn to install cooling towers in order to meet new environmental standards, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
New Jersey is home to two other nuclear power plants: the 1,179MW Salem Generating Station and the 1,200MW Hope Creek Nuclear Generating Station. Oyster Creek alone represents 15pc of the state's total installed nuclear capacity and about 7pc of its electricity production, the EIA said.
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LNG-burning vessels well positioned ahead of 2025
LNG-burning vessels well positioned ahead of 2025
New York, 19 September (Argus) — Vessels outfitted with dual-fuel LNG-burning engines are poised to have the lowest marine fuel expense heading into 2025 when the EU will tighten its marine EU emissions trading system (ETS) regulations and add a new regulation, " FuelEU", from 1 January 2025. Considering both regulations, at current price levels, fossil LNG (also known as grey LNG) will be priced the cheapest compared with conventional marine fuels and other commonly considered alternative fuels such as biodiesel and methanol. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation will require ship operators traveling in, out and within EU territorial waters to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity on a lifecycle basis, starting with a 2pc reduction in 2025, 6pc in 2030 and so on until getting to an 80pc drop, compared with 2020 base year levels. The FuelEU GHG intensity maximum is set at 85.69 grams of CO2-equivalent per MJ (gCO2e/MJ) from 2030 to 2034, dropping to 77.94 gCO2e/MJ in 2035. Vessel pools exceeding the FuelEU's limits will be fined €2,400/t ($2,675/t) of very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLFSO) energy equivalent. GHG emissions from grey LNG vary depending on the type of marine engine used to burn the LNG, but ranges from about 76.3-92.3 gCO2e/MJ, according to non-governmental environmental lobby group Transport & Environment. This makes a number of LNG-burning, ocean-going vessels compliant with FuelEU regulation through 2034. The EU's ETS for marine shipping commenced this year and requires that ship operators pay for 40pc of their GHG generated on voyages within, in and out of the EU. Next year, the EU ETS emissions limit will increase to 70pc. Even with the added 70pc CO2 emissions cost, US Gulf coast grey LNG was assessed at $639/t VLSFOe, compared with the second cheapest VLSFO at $689/t, B30 biodiesel at $922/t and grey methanol at $931/t VLSFOe average from 1-18 September (see chart). "In 2025, we expect [US natural gas] prices to rise as [US] LNG exports increase while domestic consumption and production remain relatively flat for much of the year," says the US Energy Information Administration. "We forecast the Henry Hub price to average around $2.20/million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2024 and $3.10/mmBtu in 2025." Provided that prices of biodiesel and methanol remain relatively flat, the projected EIA US 2025 LNG price gains would not affect LNG's price ranking, keeping it the cheapest alternative marine fuel option for ship owners traveling between the US Gulf coast and Europe. LNG for bunkering global consumption from vessels 5,000 gross tonnes and over reached 12.9mn t in 2023, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), up from 11mn t in 2022 and 12.6mn t in 2021. The maritime port authority of Singapore reported 111,000t of LNG bunker sales and the port authorities of Rotterdam and Antwerp reported 319,000t in 2023 from all size vessels. Among vessels 5,000 gross tonnes and over, LNG carriers accounted for 89pc of LNG bunker demand globally, followed by container ships at 3.6pc, according to the IMO. The large gap between LNG global and LNG Singapore, Rotterdam, and Antwerp bunker demand, is likely the result of most of the demand taking place at the biggest LNG export locations where LNG carriers call, such as the US Gulf coast, Qatar, Australia, Russia and Malaysia. By Stefka Wechsler USGC bunkers and bunker alternatives $/t VLSFOe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Industry decarbonization talks mark progress: EDF
Industry decarbonization talks mark progress: EDF
Houston, 19 September (Argus) — Growing decarbonization discussions in the oil and gas industry is a sign that momentum is building toward reducing emissions, according to Mark Brownstein, senior vice president of energy transition for the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). Brownstein, speaking on the sidelines of the Gastech conference in Houston, Texas, noted a "robust conversation" was happening to address CO2 and methane emissions from natural gas use, which was "something you would not have seen five years ago." "Now, what would really make me happy, is to come back here next year, and see that it's not just talk," he said. "That there's real investment, that there's real action and that we're actually beginning to see emissions of methane and other pollutants going down." Brownstein noted that more than 70 companies in the oil and gas industry have committed to the COP 28 decarbonization charter to get to near-zero methane emissions by 2030. "That is a commitment that needs to be expanded to all players," he said. "A commitment that needs to be expanded by investment and real action. I believe the industry can do it. But of course you need to see it." Earlier this year the EDF helped launch MethaneSAT, a satellite that will allow for real-time monitoring of global methane emissions, aimed at bringing transparency to global emissions data. By David Haydon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Fed rate cuts 'no bearing' for CCUS: NET Power
Fed rate cuts 'no bearing' for CCUS: NET Power
Houston, 19 September (Argus) — Interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this week have "no bearing" on carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) projects, according to the chief executive of power technology company NET Power, since most are still in the development phase. The majority of CCUS projects are in the "pre-revenue" stage with companies that are still "more focused on the engineering" aspects, chief executive Danny Rice said on the sidelines of the Gastech conference in Houston, Texas, today. The Fed on Thursday cut its target interest rate by 50 basis points, the first cut since 2020 and following an aggressive rate increase regimen to fight inflation. Lower interests rates lower borrowing costs for companies. Rice said earlier in the day during a CCUS panel discussion there was still a need to "get capital costs down". "Historically it would be challenging to deploy a new technology and scale into a flat or declining market, but ... we're talking about decarbonization for power generation," Rice said. "Power generation is growing globally." CCUS projects and other carbon capture technologies have been repeatedly criticized by non-governmental organisations as an excuse for continued fossil fuel use, although the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has backed the technology. Rice stressed the importance of an "objective, physics-driven view" for policy regarding decarbonization, describing CCUS projects for gas-fired powerplants as the most cost-effective method to decarbonize power. "People are going away from this exercise of 'what's clean or not'," Rice said. "What matters is the outputs. The affordability, the reliability, the carbon intensity." By David Haydon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kosovo confident in winter 24-25 supply: TSO
Kosovo confident in winter 24-25 supply: TSO
London, 19 September (Argus) — Kosovar transmission system operator (TSO) Kostt is confident it can meet demand over the winter season through domestic generation and imports, Kostt told Argus in an interview ahead of the Energy Week Western Balkans conference. Domestic generation capacity is not enough to meet demand during periods of high consumption, such as during the winter season, and imports will be necessary during peak tariff periods to meet demand, the TSO said. Maximum demand over the upcoming winter season is expected to reach 1.45GW, and transmission capacity can reach 1.85GW under normal operating conditions, Kostt said. Kosovar distribution company Keds and energy supplier Kesko had to import up to 35pc of power during peak periods in December last year, when peak demand reached 1.1GW. Annual maintenance at the 680MW Kosova B lignite-fired plant was completed on 18 August, and the plant is scheduled to be fully available over the winter season. Constraints on the electric system should be reduced in the upcoming winter season, as Keds has started metering the four Serbian-majority municipalities located in the country's north in January . Kostt was responsible for supply in the region last year, but received payment through subsidies from the Kosovar government, rather than tariffs. But subsidies were sometimes delayed, which created challenges in balancing real-time deviations within Kostt's control area, the TSO said. An agreement was reached last year with Serbian state-owned utility EPS subsidiary Elektrosever to normalise power supply for the Serbian majority municipalities, which were not paying for the unauthorised withdrawal of electricity. Elektrosever is now responsible for supply in the region and submits daily nominations and adheres to balancing requirements, although Kostt still meets its financial requirement to cover losses in the transmission system. There have been no violations of the operational terms since the agreement went into effect on 1 January, Kostt said. "System operations have become more stable, and deviations are now within the Entso-e acceptable limits," Kostt said. And Elektrosever has agreed to Kostt's request to submit an electricity supply plan for the region for 2025. By Annemarie Pettinato Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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