Conab reduz estimativa para safra de soja
A Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) reduziu sua estimativa para a produção brasileira de soja na temporada 2018-19 em quase 2pc em relação à projeção de fevereiro, em função da queda na produtividade das lavouras decorrente da pluviosidade irregular observada em algumas áreas.
A safra brasileira de soja, cuja colheita está no ápice, deverá atingir 113,46 milhões de t, abaixo das 115,34 milhões de t projetadas no mês passado pela Conab.
Caso suas últimas projeções se confirmem, a safra atual será quase 5pc menor que o recorde de 119,28 milhões de t visto no ciclo passado, completou a Conab em seu relatório mensal de acompanhamento das safras.
Ainda que a área dedicada ao cultivo da oleaginosa na temporada 2018-19 tenha crescido 2pc ante o ciclo passado para 35,8 milhões de ha, a produtividade das lavouras caiu 1,6pc ante as estimativas de janeiro para 3,17t/ha e recuou 6,7pc em relação às 3,39t/ha vistas na temporada 2017-18, disse a Conab.
A maior parte das perdas esperadas deve ocorrer no estado do Paraná, segundo maior produtor do grão, seguido por Goiás e Mato Grosso do Sul, quarto e quinto maiores produtores, respectivamente.
A produção paranaense deverá cair 16pc ante o ciclo passado para 16,15 milhões de t, abaixo das 19,17 milhões de t vista na safra 2017-18, disse a Conab.
A produção goiana deverá recuar 6,2pc para 11,1 milhões de t, enquanto a de Mato Grosso do Sul deverá encolher 13,2pc para 8,34 milhões de t.
A colheita da oleaginosa em Mato Grosso, principal estado produtor, está praticamente estável em 32,1 milhões de t. Já a produção do grão no Rio Grande do Sul, terceiro maior produtor nacional, deverá atingir um recorde de 18,7 milhões de t, alta anual de 9pc decorrente das chuvas favoráveis ao desenvolvimento das lavouras, disse a Conab.
A Conab cortou novamente este mês sua projeção para as exportações brasileiras de soja no ciclo atual para 70 milhões de t, ante 71,5 milhões de t estimadas em fevereiro. O país embarcou um recorde de 83,6 milhões de t na safra 2017-18.
Quanto ao milho, a Conab elevou suas estimativas para a produção brasileira no ciclo 2018-19 em 1,3pc ante o mês passado para 92,81 milhões de t. Caso se confirme, o volume será 15pc superior à decepcionante safra 2017-18, quando o país colheu 80,71 milhões de t do grão.
As projeções da Conab para a exportação brasileira de milho ficaram estáveis ante as estimativas de janeiro em um recorde de 31 milhões de t, acima das 24,77 milhões de t embarcadas no ciclo passado.
A produção de soja e milho representa 91pc da colheita total de grãos no Brasil na safra 2018-19, que deverá crescer 2,5pc ante o ciclo passado para 233,3 milhões de t.
Já a produção brasileira de algodão em pluma deverá saltar 28,4pc em relação a temporada 2017-18 para 2,58 milhões de t. A Conab projeta uma alta de 55pc nas exportações brasileiras da fibra, para um recorde de 1,45 milhão de t.
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