Biden to again release crude from SPR: Update

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
  • 18/10/22

Adds details throughout

President Joe Biden is backing the sale of another 15mn bl of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in his latest push to bring down domestic gasoline prices.

The upcoming sale, which will offer crude for delivery in December, will bring to an end the unprecedented 180mn bl emergency drawdown that Biden authorized earlier this year as a "wartime bridge" in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Biden will use a speech on 19 October to say he is prepared to hold more "significant SPR sales this winter if needed" because of actions disrupting global markets, the White House said.

The US is already required under existing law to sell an additional 26mn bl of crude from the SPR by 30 September 2023, but the administration is seeking flexibility to be able to defer that sale. Biden also has authority to approve additional emergency drawdowns of crude using the same authorities he used earlier this year to approve this summer's sales.

The White House says the continued withdrawal of crude from the SPR is helping ease gasoline prices that hit a record high of $5/USG for regular grade this summer in the wake of Russia's war in Ukraine. Biden will also use the upcoming speech to call on oil companies to reduce fuel prices for consumers, the White House said.

Critics dismiss the latest emergency withdrawal from the SPR as a ploy to sway voters before the midterm elections on 8 November. Biden's plan is "not only wrongheaded but a purely political maneuver designed to temporarily distract voters from the real issue - which is reduced energy production due to Biden's own policies," US senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said in a post on Twitter.

Biden will also announce a plan to repurchase crude for the SPR in the future when the price of WTI crude is at or below $67-$72/bl, the White House said. Those crude purchases will replenish the SPR, potentially with more oil than was released, and will encourage US producers to make investments now in output, the White House said.

The US Energy Department, as part of that plan will finalize a rule allowing it to enter into fixed-price contracts for future delivery windows, with a plan to begin purchases for delivery in 2024 or 2025. Nymex WTI crude futures today settled at $71.71/bl for delivery in June 2024 and at $67.80/bl for delivery in June 2025.

The White House said Biden was fulfilling a promise to do "everything he can to lower prices" for consumers because the war in Ukraine is continuing to put pressure on global energy supplies. The Opec+ decision this month to cut production quotas is also threatening to raise prices, leading the administration to say it will reassess its relationship with Saudi Arabia

Another potential option to address energy prices would be to seek emergency restrictions on exports of petroleum products. US oil industry groups heavily oppose such restrictions. The White House has declined to take any options off the table, but administration officials have focused public remarks on the ability to release crude from the SPR.

The SPR, which consists of underground salt caverns at four facilities in Texas and Louisiana, held 405.1mn bl of sweet and sour crude as of 14 October, according to the Energy Department, the lowest level since 1984.


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23/04/24

Vancouver Aframax rates at 6-month lows ahead of TMX

Vancouver Aframax rates at 6-month lows ahead of TMX

Houston, 23 April (Argus) — An oversupply of Aframax-size crude tankers on the west coast of the Americas in anticipation of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pressured Vancouver-loading rates to six-month lows on 19 April. With the 590,000 b/d TMX project expected to commence commercial service on 1 May, shipowners have positioned more vessels to be on the west coast to satisfy anticipated demand in Vancouver, but that demand has yet to materialize, leaving the Aframax market oversupplied for now, market participants said. Aframax rates from Vancouver to the US west coast began falling in mid-to-late March as an increase of ballasters added to tonnage in the region, helping drop the rate to ship 80,000t of Cold Lake on that route to $1.50/bl on 19 April from $2.55/bl on 21 March, according to Argus data. The rate held at $1.50/bl on 22 April, the lowest since 2 October and just 3¢/bl higher than the lowest rate since Argus began assessing the route on 21 April 2023. Similarly, the Vancouver-China Aframax rate also fell to a six-month low of $6.59/bl for Cold Lake on 19 April, down from $7.78/bl on 2 April, according to Argus data. In addition to the ballasters, two Aframaxes — the Jag Lokesh and the New Activity — are hauling Argentinian crude to the US west coast and are expected to begin discharging on 3 and 6 May, respectively, according to Vortexa. The Argentinian port of Puerto Rosales is mostly restricted to Panamaxes but can accommodate smaller Aframaxes. Downward pressure from across canal A recent slump in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Aframax market, due in part to falling Mexican crude exports to the US Gulf coast , has exerted additional downward pressure, a shipowner said. "Though markets at each side of the (Panama) Canal are different, softer sentiment looms in the region," the shipowner said. Last week, a charterer hired two Aframaxes for west coast Panama-US west coast voyages, the first at WS102.5 and the second at WS95, equivalent to $12.71/t and $11.78/t, respectively, as multiple shipowners competed for the cargoes. The Vancouver Aframax market typically draws from the same pool of vessels as the west coast Panama market. For example, the Yokosuka Spirit , one of the Aframaxes hired to load in west coast Panama, discharged a Cold Lake cargo in Los Angeles on 21-22 April after loading in Vancouver in mid-March, according to Vortexa and market participants. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

USGC LNG-VLSFO discount to steady itself


23/04/24
23/04/24

USGC LNG-VLSFO discount to steady itself

New York, 23 April (Argus) — The premium for US Gulf coast (USGC) very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) to LNG is expected to linger but not widen this spring, maintaining interest in LNG as a bunkering fuel. US Gulf coast LNG prices slipped from a premium to a discount to VLSFO in March 2023 and have remained there since. The discount surpassed 200/t VLSFO-equivalent in January (see chart). Both LNG and VLSFO prices are expected to remain under downward pressure due to high inventories, which could keep the current LNG discount steady. The US winter natural gas withdrawal season ended with 39pc more natural gas in storage compared with the five-year average, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Henry Hub natural gas monthly average prices dropped below $2/mmBtu in February, for the first time since September 2020, Argus data showed. The EIA expects the US will produce less natural gas on average in the second and third quarter of 2024 compared with the first quarter of 2024. Despite lower production, the US will have the most natural gas in storage on record when the winter withdrawal season begins in November, says the EIA. As a result, the agency forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average less than $2/mmBtu in the second quarter before "increasing slightly" in the third quarter. EIA's forecast for all of 2024 averages about $2.20/mmBtu. US Gulf coast VLSFO is facing downward price pressure as demand falls and increased refinery activity signals a potential supply build . Rising Gulf coast refinery activity was likely behind some of the drop in prices. Gulf coast refinery utilization last week rose to 91.4pc, the highest in 12 weeks and up by 0.9 percentage points from the prior week. US Gulf coast suppliers are also eyeing strong fuel oil price competition from eastern hemisphere ports such as Singapore and Zhoushan, China, importing cheap Russian residual fuel oil. In general, LNG's substantial discount to VLSFO has kept interest in LNG for bunkering from ship owners with LNG-burning vessels high. The EIA discontinued publishing US bunker sales statistics with the last data available for 2020. But data from the Singapore Maritime & Port Authority, where the LNG–VLSFO discount widened to over $200/t VLSFOe in February, showed Singapore LNG for bunkering demand increase 11.4 times to 75,900t in the first quarter compared with 6,700t in the first quarter of 2023 and 110,900t for full year 2022. By Stefka Wechsler US Gulf coast LNG vs VLSFO $/t VLSFOe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Kuwait’s KPC agrees VLSFO term supply contract with QE


23/04/24
23/04/24

Kuwait’s KPC agrees VLSFO term supply contract with QE

Singapore, 23 April (Argus) — Kuwait's KPC hassigned a term agreement with fellow state-owned firm Qatar Energy (QE) to supply very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) for loading over July 2024 through to June 2025. The VLSFO supplied amounts to 1.2mn t/yr (21,000 b/d). KPC finalised the term contract at around a $8-9/t premium against the average of Singapore 0.5pc marine fuel spot assessments, according to a source close to the company. QE has expanded its own bunkering infrastructure at the port of Ras Laffan and started relying on VLSFO supplied from Kuwait's 615,000 b/d al-Zour refinery since early last year. The VLSFO supplied is mainly to meet the country's bunkering and power generation demand. QE had a previous mini term VLSFO agreement with KPC last year. KPC supplied around 1-2 Medium Range size vessels of VLSFO each month from January 2023 to March this year, according to global trade analytics platform Kpler. The announcement of the term deal left the market unfazed, said a Dubai based fuel oil trader, as KPC has regularly offered term tenders over the year. Supplies to QE has been continuing since last year, with the deal merely being a renewal of their previous agreement, the trader added. This is KPC's third official term contract concluded since the start-up of al-Zour in late 2022. The first term contract was awarded for second-half 2023 loading to Shell, with the second to ExxonMobil for first-half 2024 loading. The terms of the two contracts stated a minimum of 80,000 t/month and a maximum of 720,000 t/month of VLSFO, with KPC having discretion over the total volume. Al-Zour can produce around 11mn-12mn t/yr of VLSFO at full capacity, with around half of it allocated for exports. By Asill Bardh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil 1Q tallow exports triple on long-term contracts


22/04/24
22/04/24

Brazil 1Q tallow exports triple on long-term contracts

Sao Paulo, 22 April (Argus) — Brazilian beef tallow exports totaled 73,930 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, a three-fold increase from the same three-month period in 2023 on rising demand. Almost 93pc of outflows between January and March were shipped to the US, according to data from Brazil's trade ministry. Long-term contracts explain the rising flow of exports, even though spot market arbitrage was closed throughout the first quarter (see chart) . The price of tallow in the Paranagua and Santos ports was $960/t fob on 19 April, keeping the arbitrage closed to US Gulf coast buyers, where the reference product was at $901/t on a delivered inland basis. Brazilian tallow is also negotiated at a premium against soybean oil, which closed at $882/t fob Paranagua on 19 April. This scenario has been observed since the 1 December 2023 start of Argus ' tallow export price assessment. Historically, vegetable oil in Brazil was traded at a discount to tallow, but strong demand has boosted the price of animal fat. Some biodiesel plants have been purchasing used cooking oil (UCO) or pork fat as an alternative. In 2023, there were doubts about whether the outflow of tallow from Brazil would be constant. Market participants now believe that the 2024 start of operations at new renewable diesel refineries in the US should sustain exports. Local suppliers that have already signed supply guarantee contracts — some up to three years — with American buyers are also considering export opportunities with Asia, including a new renewable diesel plant in Singapore that could receive Brazilian cargoes. Expansion projects are propelling US demand, including work that would bring capacity at Marathon Petroleum's Martinez Renewables plants in California to 2.35mn m³/y (40,750 b/d)and the Phillips 66 Rodeo unit in northern Californiato 3mn m³/y. These and other new projects will increase annual US demand for tallow by 5mn t. Maintenance on the horizon Maintenance at US refineries has Brazilian sellers bracing for a short-term drop in prices. Between May and June the Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) unit in Port Arthur, Texas, will shut down for maintenance, a stoppage that could impact demand for Brazilian inputs. Market participants have already observed a slight increase in domestic tallow supply, a change they attribute to maintenance at DGD. The advance of the soybean crop in Argentina is also expected to increase the supply of feedstocks to North American plants, as some refineries are returning to soybean oil after a hiatus of several years. The soybean oil quote on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is an important reference for the price of tallow. By Alexandre Melo Renewable feedstocks in Brazil on fob basis R/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Colombia's electricity woes add to unrest against Petro


22/04/24
22/04/24

Colombia's electricity woes add to unrest against Petro

Bogota, 22 April (Argus) — Colombians took the streets of major cities and towns across the nation on Sunday to protest mainly against health, pension and labor changes, but potential power outages are also creating discontent. Authorities estimated that about 250,000 Colombians marched in widespread protests, sparked by changes in healthcare. Congress in April had rejected President Gustavo Petro's proposals in the sector, and the government the next day seized the two largest private-sector health insurers. Protesting healthcare workers say the government did this to implement changes through a back channel. "Regulatory noise and risk are likely to remain high amid announcements, proposals, and measures [that do not require congressional approval], aimed at changing the game's rules in strategic sectors," brokerage Credicorp Capital said. Colombians also protested being on the verge of electricity rationing like that in neighboring Ecuador as hydroelectric reservoirs remain at record-low levels. Several unions and other associations have long warned the Petro administration to take measures to offset the effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon. Electricity distributors last year called for allowing bills for energy purchased on the spot market to be deferred and for loosening price index rules, among other proposals. The national business council sent at least three letters to the president on the issue. At least nine separate letters calling for preparation to prevent blackouts were sent to the president and ministers. Several actions were only recently implemented . "There are no risk of electricity rationing in Colombia," former energy minister Irene Velez said in 2023. "We do not understand why some people are interested in generating panic." Government weather forecasts also overestimated rainfall expected for March, leading hydroelectric plants to use more water in the reservoirs than they otherwise would have, said director of the thermoelectric generation association (Andeg) Alejandro Castaneda. Reservoir levels stood at 29.5pc today, rising thanks to rains since 19 April, up from 28.75pc on 18 April. Electricity rationing is set to begin when reservoirs drop below 27pc, according to grid operator XM. By Diana Delgado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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